Cubs 2023 Season

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#51      

Warren Carter Fanclub

Warren Carter Fanclub
Warren Carter Fanclub
Even if they sign a SS:
We have a lot of "guys" on the pitching staff. No #1 or #2. Every starter has the same repertoire.
Who's playing 3rd?
Gomes and Higgins at Catcher ?
Give Mervis a chance at 1st but he's still a question mark.

Talk is cheap and Cubs are linked to everybody. So is every other team.
 
#52      

champaignchris

C
champaignchris
Warren Carter Fanclub said:
We have a lot of "guys" on the pitching staff. No #1 or #2. Every starter has the same repertoire.
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Yeah the starting pitching is in a really interesting spot. A lot depth and options, little in proven high end performance.

You've got your two anchors:

Taillon - 31 - 3.91 ERA in 177.1 innings last year, 3.84 in 782.2 for career
Stroman - 32 - 3.50 in 138.2, 3.62 in 1167

Two veterans that you really don't know what you're going to get:

Hendricks - 33 - 4.80 in 84.1, 3.46 in 1312.2
Sampson - 31 - 3.11 in 104.1, 4.43 in 292.2

Can Hendricks get healthy and effective again? How much of Sampson's two seasons with the Cubs was an illusion and how much was real?

And then a ton of younger, less experienced guys that are promising, but not proven, weren't particularly highly rated by observers outside of the Cubs' system, and none besides Wicks picked higher than the 3rd round of the draft:

Thompson - 28 - 3.76 in 115, 3.64 in 168.1
Steele - 27 - 3.18 in 119, 3.53 in 176
Kilian - 26 - 4.22 in 106.2 in AAA
Assad - 25 - 3.11 in 37.2 in MLB debut
Wesneski - 25 - 2.18 in 33 in MLB debut
Brown - 23 - 3.38 in 104 in AA
Wicks - 23 - 3,80 in 94.2 in A+, AA

Taillon and Stroman are definitely in the rotation. Steele is most likely in, too. You figure Hendricks is, assuming he's healthy. After that, Sampson, Thompson, Assad and Wesneski all look like they're competing to be #5, with #6 also likely to get a lot of innings because there's no one in the top 5 guaranteed to get you 150 healthy innings. And still, you'd like to bring in someone else who'd give you 170+ high end innings.

You certainly wonder if they could trade some quantity for quality here.
 
#54      

champaignchris

C
champaignchris
champaignchris said:
Reasonable free agency expectations:

Bogaerts or Swanson
Abreu or Bell
2 of Senga, Syndergaard, Heaney, Manaea, or Eflin - probably another half dozen or so starting pitchers can fit on this line.
Various random bullpen pieces that are either no names or cheap rehab projects.

A payroll in the $190-195mm range, Heyward included, putting the Cubs back solidly in the top 10 in MLB.
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The complete radio silence over the last week with regard to further Cubs moves this off season is starting to make what I though were conservative offseason predictions look unlikely to be met. They haven't signed anyone to play 1B/DH. They haven't signed a MI. They haven't signed a catcher. They haven't signed a single bullpen piece.

Mid-way through the offseason, with pitchers and catchers reporting in about 60 days, the Cubs are still down at 14th in payroll and are roughly $40 million LESS (?!?!) than they were last year. Over $120 million under the luxury threshold.

Jed and Co seem to have forgotten the "spending" part of "intelligent spending."
 
#55      

Warren Carter Fanclub

Warren Carter Fanclub
Warren Carter Fanclub
champaignchris said:
The complete radio silence over the last week with regard to further Cubs moves this off season is starting to make what I though were conservative offseason predictions look unlikely to be met. They haven't signed anyone to play 1B/DH. They haven't signed a MI. They haven't signed a catcher. They haven't signed a single bullpen piece.

Mid-way through the offseason, with pitchers and catchers reporting in about 60 days, the Cubs are still down at 14th in payroll and are roughly $40 million LESS (?!?!) than they were last year. Over $120 million under the luxury threshold.

Jed and Co seem to have forgotten the "spending" part of "intelligent spending."
Click to expand...
-Catcher: Braves trade for Sean Murphy, Twins signing Christian Vasquez, everyone in division has a Contreras except us. Don't worry, we have Gomes and Higgins.
-CF: Did we really get better?
-3B: Adam Dunn without the walks.
-1B: Rookie, I guess.
-SP: We lost 2 from last year, signed one.
-RP: I guess Jed is happy with what we have. Heuer coming back in middle of season. Big deal.
-Operating like a small market team. San Diego IS a small market team and look at their roster.
-Crane Kenney said we were only in the 3rd inning of making deals. I have a feeling it will be rained out after 4 1/2.
-If they wanted to sit out another year and sign bargain basement guys for one year deals in February they should have just said so. Don't instigate rumors that you're going after everybody. I'm not blaming Hoyer, I'm blaming Ricketts. Try selling time on Marquee next year. Good luck.
 
#58      

ChiefGritty

ChiefGritty
Chicago, IL
ChiefGritty
IanKEvans2 said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1602416412689108995
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I mean this is silly, galaxy-brain thinking (a subject I know a thing or two about).

Either Hoyer is not willing to spend his payroll flexibility on deals that are beyond their actual values, or ownership is not providing him the payroll flexibility to do so in the first place.

In either case, the fundamental question is how the Cubs plan to be meaningfully competitive in this marketplace commensurate with the prices they charge their customers.

And it becomes a bigger, broader sports problem when the choices a team faces is to tank and lose or spend and lose. And then MLB adds a bloated, randomized postseason, so who cares if you win anyway?

I am very, very bullish on the on-field rule changes next year improving the product and giving us baseball more like the game we grew up on. But that's not the only problem.

Just sign Carlos Correa.
 
#59      

IanKEvans2

IanKEvans2
IanKEvans2
ChiefGritty said:
I mean this is silly, galaxy-brain thinking (a subject I know a thing or two about).

Either Hoyer is not willing to spend his payroll flexibility on deals that are beyond their actual values, or ownership is not providing him the payroll flexibility to do so in the first place.

In either case, the fundamental question is how the Cubs plan to be meaningfully competitive in this marketplace commensurate with the prices they charge their customers.

And it becomes a bigger, broader sports problem when the choices a team faces is to tank and lose or spend and lose. And then MLB adds a bloated, randomized postseason, so who cares if you win anyway?

I am very, very bullish on the on-field rule changes next year improving the product and giving us baseball more like the game we grew up on. But that's not the only problem.

Just sign Carlos Correa.
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And he's gone.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1602889551680311297
 
#61      

Warren Carter Fanclub

Warren Carter Fanclub
Warren Carter Fanclub
After thinking about this, I really believe that the Cubs instigated all of those grandiose spending rumors and dreams of a competitive team to entice season ticket holders to send in their very large NON-REFUNDABLE deposits to renew their tickets for next year. Now that the deadline has passed, reality has sunk in.
 
#62      

champaignchris

C
champaignchris
So what are we looking at now:

C - Omar Narvaez is coming off an awful year, but is probably a starting quality catcher. If not him, they’ll be looking at a backup like Plawecki or Barnhart.

1B/DH - There really aren’t any starting quality players left. Trey Mancini might be the best of the bunch. Otherwise it’s all over the hill and/or injury recovery guys like JD Martinez and Brandon Belt.

MI - It’s Swanson or bust here. Jean Segura and Elvis Andrus after that.

SP - Carlos Rodon is still out there, but the Cubs haven’t been linked to him. If they won’t go for him, I can’t see them going for the only other QO guy left in Eovaldi. Wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t just re-sign Smyly.

RP - Still a lot of help on the board here. Ottavin9, Rodgers, Chafin. We’ll see.
 
#63      

ChiefGritty

ChiefGritty
Chicago, IL
ChiefGritty
IanKEvans2 said:
And he's gone.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1602889551680311297
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It's the wrong way to think of it since it will end with a multiple-year buyout, but $26.9M AAV is quite low.

It's really funny that MLB is now running into the same stumbling blocks with the luxury tax that the NHL already had and fixed with its salary cap-evading deals. Like, these deals aren't even pretending to not be cooking the books, because they don't have to.
 
#64      

ChiefGritty

ChiefGritty
Chicago, IL
ChiefGritty
champaignchris said:
So what are we looking at now:

C - Omar Narvaez is coming off an awful year, but is probably a starting quality catcher. If not him, they’ll be looking at a backup like Plawecki or Barnhart.

1B/DH - There really aren’t any starting quality players left. Trey Mancini might be the best of the bunch. Otherwise it’s all over the hill and/or injury recovery guys like JD Martinez and Brandon Belt.

MI - It’s Swanson or bust here. Jean Segura and Elvis Andrus after that.

SP - Carlos Rodon is still out there, but the Cubs haven’t been linked to him. If they won’t go for him, I can’t see them going for the only other QO guy left in Eovaldi. Wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t just re-sign Smyly.

RP - Still a lot of help on the board here. Ottavin9, Rodgers, Chafin. We’ll see.
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There are no impact bats left, including Swanson. The Cubs lineup is bad, will be bad, and the cost to improve it will be higher than that Correa deal. A really stupid decision.
 
#65      

IanKEvans2

IanKEvans2
IanKEvans2
ChiefGritty said:
There are no impact bats left, including Swanson. The Cubs lineup is bad, will be bad, and the cost to improve it will be higher than that Correa deal. A really stupid decision.
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I'm 100% with you. Swanson is a net additive piece to a roster, but not a centerpiece.

Saw a comparison that a fanbase fear is that the 2016 Cubs ownership/management will follow a similar path to the 1985 Bears.
 
#66      

ChiefGritty

ChiefGritty
Chicago, IL
ChiefGritty
IanKEvans2 said:
I'm 100% with you. Swanson is a net additive piece to a roster, but not a centerpiece.

Saw a comparison that a fanbase fear is that the 2016 Cubs ownership/management will follow a similar path to the 1985 Bears.
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Oh we're already there, Walter Payton has retired, Ditka has been fired, we are in Wannstedt Mode.
 
#67      

KBLEE

KBLEE
Montgomery, IL
KBLEE
champaignchris said:
1B/DH - There really aren’t any starting quality players left. Trey Mancini might be the best of the bunch. Otherwise it’s all over the hill and/or injury recovery guys like JD Martinez and Brandon Belt.
Click to expand...

Mancini is still a starting quality player. His first half last season was decent before being traded to the Astros. He's a career .265 hitter that has eclipsed .290 in a few years. If he can hit .260+ w/ 15-20 HR, that's more production at 1B than they have had in recent years.
 
#68      

Mr. Tibbs

Mr. Tibbs
southeast DuPage
Mr. Tibbs
Pretty obvious the Rickets clan does not want to get in the same roster/payroll game that the California & New York teams want to play.
 
#69      

champaignchris

C
champaignchris
ChiefGritty said:
It's the wrong way to think of it since it will end with a multiple-year buyout, but $26.9M AAV is quite low.

It's really funny that MLB is now running into the same stumbling blocks with the luxury tax that the NHL already had and fixed with its salary cap-evading deals. Like, these deals aren't even pretending to not be cooking the books, because they don't have to.
Click to expand...
This is what everybody on Twitter yelling “OMG 11 years! He won’t be any good at 41 years old!” Is missing.

Nobody is expecting them to be any good then. It’s really a 5 year contract with the payments spread out over time to game the luxury tax.
 
#70      

Emerson Bigguns

Emerson Bigguns
Emerson Bigguns
They have really put themselves in a corner. You don't want to over-pay, but money being equal, impact players are going to choose teams that are closer to contending.
The biggest thing Theo and Jed did in the last re-build was convince Jon Lester to come to Chicago. It legitimized the "end of the re-build, and showed they were serious about competing.
Now it's basically Swanson or bust, and I'm not convinced Swanson is a guy you build around. He's a good player, but we aren't one good player away. We need a center piece to the lineup, and all those guys have opted for teams that are more playoff ready.
I'm not sure what the plan is now. They shouldn't spend money just to keep from looking cheap. You also don't want to throw stupid money at good/not great players.
At this point, it might be smarter to cut bait continue to accumulate prospects and wait for our farm to produce.
 
#71      

champaignchris

C
champaignchris
Emerson Bigguns said:
They have really put themselves in a corner. You don't want to over-pay, but money being equal, impact players are going to choose teams that are closer to contending.
The biggest thing Theo and Jed did in the last re-build was convince Jon Lester to come to Chicago. It legitimized the "end of the re-build, and showed they were serious about competing.
Now it's basically Swanson or bust, and I'm not convinced Swanson is a guy you build around. He's a good player, but we aren't one good player away. We need a center piece to the lineup, and all those guys have opted for teams that are more playoff ready.
I'm not sure what the plan is now. They shouldn't spend money just to keep from looking cheap. You also don't want to throw stupid money at good/not great players.
At this point, it might be smarter to cut bait continue to accumulate prospects and wait for our farm to produce.
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I don’t think players are choosing other teams because they think the Cubs won’t win. I think players are choosing to play for other teams because those other teams are offering more money.

Either the Cubs business ops guys are lying about the payroll funds being available or Hoyer is just not spending the money. And I think the Occam’s Razor likelihood between those two options is pretty self-evident, with Warren Carter Fanclub’s last post likely being on the nose.

This is a team that isn’t extending their in house players, isn’t signing multi-year contracts for free agents, and going out of its way to sign players with draft penalties attached. This has been the case for 5 off seasons now.

It’s being run like a small market team, not a big market team with its own television network and the highest average ticket price in the Majors. Things are fluid right now because of constant signings, but I believe the Giants just passed the Cubs in payroll, putting the Cubs currently at 16th in the Majors.
 
#72      

ChiefGritty

ChiefGritty
Chicago, IL
ChiefGritty
You know who would look awfully good on this team right now?

Anthony Rizzo or Kris Bryant for way less money than Dansby Swanson is about to get.

champaignchris said:
It’s being run like a small market team, not a big market team with its own television network
Click to expand...

Marquee Network being the Hindenburg is the thing lurking in the background of all of this
 
#73      

champaignchris

C
champaignchris
ChiefGritty said:
You know who would look awfully good on this team right now?

Anthony Rizzo or Kris Bryant for way less money than Dansby Swanson is about to get.
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The Cubs have been consistently penny smart, pound stupid for the last 5 years. Completely bowing out of pursuing Harper when the 9 years and $222 million left ion his contract looks cheap at this point. Ditto trading Darvish and 2 years and $39 million left on his contract.

They can’t get players of that quality for that cheap right now.

Unwillingness to pay now means they’re just going to have to pay more later, assuming they have any intention of paying at all.
 
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