Illini Basketball 2016-2017

IlliniBrave75 · Jul 11, 2016

The Wild Card

On Thursday, I sat down with Illinois redshirt freshman Kipper Nichols following a team photoshoot. Nichols is a 6-foot-6, 220 pound forward from St. Edward High School in Lakewood, Ohio, where he averaged 18.8 points and 4.9 rebounds per game as an upperclassman. He originally signed with Tulane but transferred to Illinois last November. Due to the unusual timing of his transfer, the NCAA has yet to determine if Nichols will be able to play right away this season or sit out until the end of first semester. To fans and media, he represents perhaps the biggest unknown on the 2016-17 team.

http://illiniboard.com/2016/07/08/the-wild-card/

Second and Chalmers · Jul 11, 2016

Let's right this ship fellas.

champaignchris · Jul 11, 2016

Second and Chalmers said:
Let's right this ship fellas.

I don't want to minimize the loss of Nunn, but he and JCL are basically the same players. We aren't losing anyone else of significance and will be adding Abrams, Thorne, Black, Nicholls (probably mid-season) and Lucas. That's a pretty hefty talent infusion.

I don't know if that translates to a 20-win NIT team or a 24-win NCAA team, but it will be fun to watch.

zpfled · Jul 11, 2016

champaignchris said:
I don't want to minimize the loss of Nunn, but he and JCL are basically the same players. We aren't losing anyone else of significance and will be adding Abrams, Thorne, Black, Nicholls (probably mid-season) and Lucas. That's a pretty hefty talent infusion.

I don't know if that translates to a 20-win NIT team or a 24-win NCAA team, but it will be fun to watch.

If we stay healthy, that's an experienced, balanced team with good shooting, decent inside scoring, decent rebounding, and a couple guys who can create their own scoring opportunities.

I think we are back in the tourney this year, and with our current recruiting trend, we'll be there for the forseeable future.

whovous · Jul 11, 2016

zpfled said:
If we stay healthy, that's an experienced, balanced team with good shooting, decent inside scoring, decent rebounding, and a couple guys who can create their own scoring opportunities.

I think we are back in the tourney this year, and with our current recruiting trend, we'll be there for the forseeable future.

I feel more confident about making the tourney this year than next year. Next year will just be too freshman heavy a team. Now the years after that...

zoggle101 · Jul 11, 2016

champaignchris said:
I don't want to minimize the loss of Nunn, but he and JCL are basically the same players. We aren't losing anyone else of significance and will be adding Abrams, Thorne, Black, Nicholls (probably mid-season) and Lucas. That's a pretty hefty talent infusion.

I don't know if that translates to a 20-win NIT team or a 24-win NCAA team, but it will be fun to watch.

I'll miss Nunn as a player, but it was obvious that coach had to cut ties. The positives are that we do have one of the best if not the best sophomore sg' in the country, and the other sophomores like DJW, AJ, and Kipper will get the Nunn minutes that JCL doesn't gobble up giving them even more in game experience for 17-18. JCL showed me something off the bounce more than once during conference play with his legs a little more under him after missing the off season. I'm very excited about the other three sophomores too. Wait, make that the whole sophomore class. I'll call it the best group in the country for that class without batting an eye. What a foundation to build from!

#weback

IAmChrisFarley · Jul 11, 2016

Bomb Squad 217 said:
I haven't. I might have to look into mtz. They are always trying to improve and are building that new facility out there so there could be an opportunity there. It'll be awkward working for another school and going to st t games every Friday night lol

MTZ complex is complete, right? At least I thought it was. MTZ might be the perfect opportunity for you. The new football coach knows what difference S&C can do for a program.

Good luck, Bomb. Hoping this works out for you.

jrichisamazing · Jul 11, 2016

whovous said:
I feel more confident about making the tourney this year than next year. Next year will just be too freshman heavy a team. Now the years after that...

Of course that is an easy statement to make right now. But it really depends on how the sophomore class, plus Lucas and Kipper, look this season.

urbanite · Jul 11, 2016

whovous said:
I feel more confident about making the tourney this year than next year. Next year will just be too freshman heavy a team.

I think it's too early to tell for 2017-2018. A large part of that team will be the juniors: JCL, AJ, DJW, Black, and Finke. We'll have a much better idea of the impact they might have after seeing them play this coming season.

Bomb Squad 217 · Jul 11, 2016

IAmChrisFarley said:
MTZ complex is complete, right? At least I thought it was. MTZ might be the perfect opportunity for you. The new football coach knows what difference S&C can do for a program.

Good luck, Bomb. Hoping this works out for you.

Im not sure, havent been out there recently. THanks man, I appreciate it.

whovous · Jul 11, 2016

urbanite said:
I think it's too early to tell for 2017-2018. A large part of that team will be the juniors: JCL, AJ, DJW, Black, and Finke. We'll have a much better idea of the impact they might have after seeing them play this coming season.

I have high hopes for all five of them, but I think all five will have to come through for the team to make the dance. I could easily be wrong. I'd prefer to be wrong.

schnaurt · Jul 11, 2016

urbanite said:
I think it's too early to tell for 2017-2018. A large part of that team will be the juniors: JCL, AJ, DJW, Black, and Finke. We'll have a much better idea of the impact they might have after seeing them play this coming season.

Those 5 can make a good team on their own. Possibly play in 2-3 tournaments. I think these five raise the program and 2017 can keep it up there while pushing it higher. Time to watch and hope I guessed correctly.

Illwinsagain · Jul 12, 2016

whovous said:
I feel more confident about making the tourney this year than next year. Next year will just be too freshman heavy a team. Now the years after that...

Really? I think the only projected starter for the freshman would be at C. The rest, sophomores, jrs and redshirt jrs. Should be experienced enough with the talent level. It's fun to be optimistic again. :thumb:

whovous · Jul 12, 2016

Illwinsagain said:
Really? I think the only projected starter for the freshman would be at C. The rest, sophomores, jrs and redshirt jrs. Should be experienced enough with the talent level. It's fun to be optimistic again. :thumb:

The problem is that the entire bench is 19 years old. We'd need their talent to trump their inexperience at the DI level.

Of course, we need to land this monster class before we can settle this bet.

Illiniguy13 · Jul 12, 2016

An improved Leron & Tilmon together in the front court is fun to think about

Then again, maybe Finke is a better compliment? I could see Black & Tilmon grabbing a lot of boards, but it's easy to picture Finke stretching the floor and letting Tilmon go to work down low 1-1. I suppose it's a similar idea to our front court this year with Thorne even though they're different players.

Joel Goodson · Jul 12, 2016

Illiniguy13 said:
An improved Leron & Tilmon together in the front court is fun to think about Then again, maybe Finke is a better compliment? I could see Black & Tilmon grabbing a lot of boards, but it's easy to picture Finke stretching the floor and letting Tilmon go to work down low 1-1. I suppose it's a similar idea to our front court this year with Thorne even though they're different players.

Complement. Anyway, Black & Tilmon and/or Finke & Tilmon is a beautiful thing to contemplate.

Illiniguy13 · Jul 12, 2016

Joel Goodson said:
Complement. Anyway, Black & Tilmon and/or Finke & Tilmon is a beautiful thing to contemplate.

Thanks, at least I didn't spell Tilman

urbanite · Jul 12, 2016

This is mostly-irrelevant trivia, but KenPom is doing a series of articles about foul trouble. The most recent one ranks coaches by the percentage of available minutes played in the first half by starters with two fouls. It's interesting that Groce is among the least conservative in the Big Ten in this regard. The leading number is the rank, of 321.

Code:

 81  Tom Crean       26.2%
 85  Tim Miles       25.7%
 93  Chris Collins   24.9%
134  John Groce      20.6% 
139  Pat Chambers    20.4% 
196  Matt Painter    15.6%
198  Mark Turgeon    15.5%
224  Richard Pitino  13.2%
234  Thad Matta      12.5%
281  Steve Pikiell    9.8%
290  Greg Gard        9.0%
294  Tom Izzo         8.7%
308  John Beilein     6.9%
314  Fran McCaffery   5.8%

Tevo · Jul 12, 2016

urbanite said:
This is mostly-irrelevant trivia, but KenPom is doing a series of articles about foul trouble. The most recent one ranks coaches by the percentage of available minutes played in the first half by starters with two fouls. It's interesting that Groce is among the least conservative in the Big Ten in this regard. The leading number is the rank, of 321.

Code:

81 Tom Crean 26.2% 85 Tim Miles 25.7% 93 Chris Collins 24.9% 134 John Groce 20.6% 139 Pat Chambers 20.4% 196 Matt Painter 15.6% 198 Mark Turgeon 15.5% 224 Richard Pitino 13.2% 234 Thad Matta 12.5% 281 Steve Pikiell 9.8% 290 Greg Gard 9.0% 294 Tom Izzo 8.7% 308 John Beilein 6.9% 314 Fran McCaffery 5.8%

Not sure if Bo Ryan is included, but I'd have to think his % would be very slow simply because his players apparently NEVER FOULED, and thus probably didn't have too many situations where they had two fouls by halftime. Wisconsin's foul and freethrow advantages were among their most impressive stats, year after year.

ChicagoChief · Jul 12, 2016

Tevo said:
Not sure if Bo Ryan is included, but I'd have to think his % would be very slow simply because his players apparently NEVER FOULED, and thus probably didn't have too many situations where they had two fouls by halftime. Wisconsin's foul and freethrow advantages were among their most impressive stats, year after year.

But that wouldn't affect the % at all.

champaignchris · Jul 12, 2016

ChicagoChief said:
But that wouldn't affect the % at all.

I would expect that bench depth, or lack thereof, would be the biggest factor on the chart; if you don't have anyone to replace the starter with 2 fouls, he plays. Overall team experience would be the second - you'd be more likely to play a senior with 2 fouls than a freshman; so a team with more seniors than freshman would be higher on the list.

Tevo · Jul 12, 2016

ChicagoChief said:
But that wouldn't affect the % at all.

Well, I guess it depends on the actual calculation. If it is: (total minutes those two-foul players are playing)/(total minutes when a player has two fouls), then players who never foul would not be included.

I guess I initially thought it was saying, "What percentage of the total time available is being played by a player with two fouls." I read it again and I'm still not sure.

If the question is "How conservative does a coach get when players get in foul trouble", then yes, I guess the first calculation does a better job of illuminating that...

urbanite · Jul 12, 2016

Tevo said:
Wisconsin's foul and freethrow advantages were among their most impressive stats, year after year.

This is only for the past four seasons, and I didn't look at FT advantage, but Michigan is surprisingly below Wisconsin in fouls per 200 minutes played:

It would be interesting to go back and see how things look for the entire time Ryan was at Wisconsin. It will also be interesting to see if that uptick in fouls continues under Gard.

Tevo · Jul 12, 2016

urbanite said:
This is only for the past four seasons, and I didn't look at FT advantage, but Michigan is surprisingly below Wisconsin in fouls per 200 minutes played:

It would be interesting to go back and see how things look for the entire time Ryan was at Wisconsin. It will also be interesting to see if that uptick in fouls continues under Gard.

Do you have the data handy to show foul differential, to account for the pace of the game? Pure foul numbers would be somewhat tempo-dependent. Still, it's interesting that Michigan was so good at not fouling.

I went back a little farther (only found foul data back to 2009), but looked at Differential, to try to account for pace of the game. Here are the Foul Differentials over 2009-2012 (Fouls Called For - Fouls Called Against, so higher numbers are better):

Lots of up and down from year to year, except for two teams: Illinois consistently bad, and Wisconsin consistently good.

Also important, though, is whether those fouls result in free throw attempts. Here are the Freethrows Attempted Differential for the same period (higher numbers are better):

Only Purdue is positive in all three years, but then, they had good teams those three years. I would have thought Wisconsin would be better than they were.

Anyway, that was a lot of work for minimal value.

KJKobs · Jul 12, 2016

Illinois vs. West Virginia

https://twitter.com/JonRothstein

West Virginia will play Illinois and Florida State will face Temple in the first round of the 2016 Preseason NIT, sources told @CBSSports.