Illini Basketball 2017-2018

#151      

Obelix

Obelix
Obelix
PlayAZ said:
Grand Canyon by year end will boost our RPI/SOS, as will New Mexico State, hell they already are, and by tournament time they will be included for sure.
Click to expand...

Not sure if you understand how RPI works. Grand Canyon and New Mexico State both play in the WAC, which is a terrible conference. Teams in weaker conferences get a boost by playing stronger teams in out of conference schedule but their RPI does not improve much when they start playing themselves and conference opponents like the Chicago States of the world. That is why, other than the automatic bid, these conference teams do not have much of a chance to get in the tournament, the rest of their metrics are bad.

Again, our RPI jumped because Mizzou was artificially extremely high. Their RPI will likely drop when they start losing in the SEC, although will not plunge because SEC is a strong conference. Our RPI will naturally improve as we get into conference play but is still very low right now, so this year is unlikely to be a case where we sneak in to the tournament due to a high RPI (and other metrics) by beating the weaker teams in the B1G. To make a run for the tournament, we need to take the B1G by storm and start accumulating wins against the stronger teams of the conference, i.e., Michigan State, Minnesota, Purdue, Michigan, etc.
 
#152      

yeahyeahyeah

Y
yeahyeahyeah
Obelix said:
Not sure if you understand how RPI works. Grand Canyon and New Mexico State both play in the WAC, which is a terrible conference. Teams in weaker conferences get a boost by playing stronger teams in out of conference schedule but their RPI does not improve much when they start playing themselves and conference opponents like the Chicago States of the world. That is why, other than the automatic bid, these conference teams do not have much of a chance to get in the tournament, the rest of their metrics are bad.

Again, our RPI jumped because Mizzou was artificially extremely high. Their RPI will likely drop when they start losing in the SEC, although will not plunge because SEC is a strong conference. Our RPI will naturally improve as we get into conference play but is still very low right now, so this year is unlikely to be a case where we sneak in to the tournament due to a high RPI (and other metrics) by beating the weaker teams in the B1G. To make a run for the tournament, we need to take the B1G by storm and start accumulating wins against the stronger teams of the conference, i.e., Michigan State, Minnesota, Purdue, Michigan, etc.
Click to expand...

their rpi does not matter... their wins and losses do, which will be really good in their conference ... 50% of our index... who their opponents are matters only 25%.
 
#154      

Obelix

Obelix
Obelix
yeahyeahyeah said:
their rpi does not matter... their wins and losses do, which will be really good in their conference ... 50% of our index... who their opponents are matters only 25%.
Click to expand...

The rpi is one of the many selection criteria used by the committee, as is strength of schedule and quality of wins. 25% is a big percentage, to put it in perspective, it counts as much as out own win-loss record. Furthermore, our SOS is low as well, and committee also looks at the quality of the wins, often in brackets against top 25 in RPI, top 50, top 100 etc. GCU will not rank high.

Again, our current RPI, SOS, etc. as well as overall quality of wins is not that good in pre-conference. You may think that just winning against lower conference opponents and ending up at .500 or slightly above may sneak us in, but this will not be the case this year. We need start accumulating wins against the stronger teams of the conference, i.e., Michigan State, Minnesota, Purdue, Michigan, etc. because our metrics right now are not that good.
 
#155      

blmillini

B
Bloomington, IL
blmillini
Kathy said:
I don't understand the logic here. If he is the better guard and we want him in there to close the halves and end of games, shouldn't he be starting and let Lucas me the spark plug?
Click to expand...

Assume they want his energy and ability to attack the basket late in halves when opponent guards are tiring. If he plays heavy minutes earlier he probably doesn't have that same level of energy and tired legs make it tougher to score.
 
#156      

yeahyeahyeah

Y
yeahyeahyeah
Obelix said:
The rpi is one of the many selection criteria used by the committee, as is strength of schedule and quality of wins. 25% is a big percentage, to put it in perspective, it counts as much as out own win-loss record. Furthermore, our SOS is low as well, and committee also looks at the quality of the wins, often in brackets against top 25 in RPI, top 50, top 100 etc. GCU will not rank high.

Again, our current RPI, SOS, etc. as well as overall quality of wins is not that good in pre-conference. You may think that just winning against lower conference opponents and ending up at .500 or slightly above may sneak us in, but this will not be the case this year. We need start accumulating wins against the stronger teams of the conference, i.e., Michigan State, Minnesota, Purdue, Michigan, etc. because our metrics right now are not that good.
Click to expand...

"Grand Canyon by year end will boost our RPI/SOS"... this is a true statement....telling the poster they don't know how RPI works in response, would be an alternative fact.

The Illini need to accumulate wins, period. Winning against stronger teams would be nice, but as far as the RPI is concerned, it would only effect the 25% (our record) that we can control. We probably need one or two signature wins as part of our resume, for sure. We also need to win against all of the lower BT teams to avoid a bad loss. The committee in the past also looked at the last games. If a team was streaking at then end, it was looked at as favorable. The Illini start off the main part of the Big Ten season with 4 games out of 5 on the road. It might be rougher at the beginning then. So, down the stretch, if we look good, grab some victories and do well in the BTT, that might play in our favor. Let's win 12 games in the regular season. Starting with Minnesota.:illinois:
 
#157      

Obelix

Obelix
Obelix
yeahyeahyeah said:
"Grand Canyon by year end will boost our RPI/SOS"... this is a true statement....telling the poster they don't know how RPI works in response, would be an alternative fact.

The Illini need to accumulate wins, period. Winning against stronger teams would be nice, but as far as the RPI is concerned, it would only effect the 25% (our record) that we can control. We probably need one or two signature wins as part of our resume, for sure. We also need to win against all of the lower BT teams to avoid a bad loss. The committee in the past also looked at the last games. If a team was streaking at then end, it was looked at as favorable. The Illini start off the main part of the Big Ten season with 4 games out of 5 on the road. It might be rougher at the beginning then. So, down the stretch, if we look good, grab some victories and do well in the BTT, that might play in our favor. Let's win 12 games in the regular season. Starting with Minnesota.:illinois:
Click to expand...

Again, you need to get a better grasp of the NCAA selection criteria and how the committee works. You are making statements that are completely wrong. You make statements (and I quote):

their rpi does not matter
Click to expand...

The RPI of teams we play absolutely matters, not only in the calculation of our own RPI (low RPI teams have lower opponent W-L), but also on what the selection committee considers quality wins, as I explained to you. The NCAA committee actually redefined what a quality win means this past summer, taking into consideration the specific RPI of teams. Specifically, for the team rankings of opponents (based on RPI):

There still will be four separate columns, with the first column consisting of home games against teams ranked 1-30, neutral-site games against teams ranked in the top 50 and road games against opponents ranked in the top 75. The second column will include home games against teams ranked 31-75, neutral-site games versus teams ranked 51-100 and road games against teams ranked 76-135.

The third column will consist of home games played against competition ranked 76-160, games played on a neutral court versus teams ranked 101-200 and games on the road against teams ranked 136-240. The fourth column will include home games against teams ranked 161-351, neutral-site games played against teams ranked 201-351 and road games versus opponents ranked 241-351.
Click to expand...

Not only does the committee take into consideration the RPI of opponents, but also where the games are played. So your whole point that the schedule gets easier since we start with 4 out of 5 games on the road, is also less valid since road wins get counted a lot more, so winning at home gets valued less. The committee now places more emphasis on "road wins." BTW, GCU is also at home.

Furthermore, statements that you make as:

the committee in the past also looked at the last games. If a team was streaking at then end, it was looked at as favorable.
Click to expand...

are also incorrect, the committee has made a point of looking at entire body and record, not streaks at the end or even conference records as opposed to pre-conference.
 
#158      

PlayAZ

P
PlayAZ
Obelix said:
The rpi is one of the many selection criteria used by the committee, as is strength of schedule and quality of wins. 25% is a big percentage, to put it in perspective, it counts as much as out own win-loss record. Furthermore, our SOS is low as well, and committee also looks at the quality of the wins, often in brackets against top 25 in RPI, top 50, top 100 etc. GCU will not rank high.

Again, our current RPI, SOS, etc. as well as overall quality of wins is not that good in pre-conference. You may think that just winning against lower conference opponents and ending up at .500 or slightly above may sneak us in, but this will not be the case this year. We need start accumulating wins against the stronger teams of the conference, i.e., Michigan State, Minnesota, Purdue, Michigan, etc. because our metrics right now are not that good.
Click to expand...

For a potential "bubble" team...(not saying we are-we may be?), quality losses and quality wins are both accounted for, especially when dissecting a team for criteria of getting in.
 
#159      

Obelix

Obelix
Obelix
yeahyeahyeah said:
"low RPI teams have lower opponent W-L" not necessarily, Alcorn State's RPI is 281, but there SOS is 35. According to you, how could this be?
:noidea:
Click to expand...

You are backtracking and getting yourself deeper. We are taking about the opponents of our opponents (i.e., the opponents of GCU) and don't confuse SOS.

Alcorn State has a low RPI because they have actually not won games against Div. I teams (0-9):

https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/rpi/ALCORN/alcorn-state-braves

and New Orleans the same (0-8):

https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/rpi/NORL/new-orleans-privateers

It is actually the other "only 25%" that you consider small, as I explained you, 25% is actually not that small and they get a total 0 there. GCU actually has a winning record (9-4), but the quality of their conference will keep as down (in terms quality wins, assuming that we win) and also the fact that it would be a home win (assuming again that we win),which the NCAA even values even less.
 
#160      

Obelix

Obelix
Obelix
PlayAZ said:
For a potential "bubble" team...(not saying we are-we may be?), quality losses and quality wins are both accounted for, especially when dissecting a team for criteria of getting in.
Click to expand...

You need to avoid bad losses, losses against low RPI teams, especially at home or neutral (based on new criteria) and we will actually need to start winning against some of the top teams in the conference to record some "good wins" in the eyes of the committee.

But the committee will not sneak you in on "moral victories" given the current state of B1G. Depending on the schedule, there would be years where you can claim that the vast majority of a team's losses could be to top teams (on a nationally top heavy B1G, i.e., multiple B1G teams ranked very high), but our 5 losses so far are not really to top teams. We will need wins against some of the best teams in the conference to have a chance.

People can argue all they want, but metrics don't lie. Our pre-conference performance has not been really good, we started 0-2 in conference, and our metrics (selection criteria) are currently down, so it is a tough case to make it as a "sneak in" year.
 
#161      

Obelix

Obelix
Obelix
yeahyeahyeah said:
the RPI of a team is never factored into another team's RPI....ever
Click to expand...

I think I have proven you wrong with facts and links on every single point you have made, yet you keep coming back with off the wall statements. You can't create a metric(formula) with the metric also incorporated into the definition of the metric, so it is a moot point. The RPI is not part of the RPI itself, again a moot point.

But playing low RPI teams, affects both your own RPI (because elements of what goes into the calculation of their RPI, e.g., opponents W-L, and opponents-opponents W-L, go into the calculation of your own RPI) but also affects what the NCAA committee considers good wins and losses, ALL factors of the committee selection. The former is actually why our RPI jumped quite a bit after the Mizzou win.
 
#162      

JFGsCoffeeMug

JFGsCoffeeMug
BU:1 Trash cans:0
Chicago
JFGsCoffeeMug
http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/mens-basketball-selections-101-selections

The Rating Percentage Index (RPI) is one of many factors used by NCAA sports committees when evaluating team selection, seeding and bracketing.

The basic RPI consists of a team’s Division I winning percentage (25 percent weight), its opponents’ winning percentage (50 percent weight) and its opponents opponents’ winning percentage (25 percent weight). The RPI is one of many factors the committees use for selecting and seeding teams.

Other criteria the committee considers in the selections process are:

  • An extensive season-long evaluation of teams through watching games, conference monitoring calls and regional advisory committee rankings;
  • Complete box scores and results;
  • Head-to-head results and results versus common opponents;
  • Imbalanced conference schedules and results;
  • Overall and non-conference strength of schedule;
  • The quality of wins and losses;
  • Road record;
  • Player and coach availability; and
  • Various computer metrics.
Click to expand...
 
#163      

Obelix

Obelix
Obelix
yeahyeahyeah said:
you ain't proven diddly
Click to expand...

amateur_hour_anchorman.gif
 
#167      

Peoria Illini

P
Peoria, IL
Peoria Illini
Obelix said:
You need to avoid bad losses, losses against low RPI teams, especially at home or neutral (based on new criteria) and we will actually need to start winning against some of the top teams in the conference to record some "good wins" in the eyes of the committee.

But the committee will not sneak you in on "moral victories" given the current state of B1G. Depending on the schedule, there would be years where you can claim that the vast majority of a team's losses could be to top teams (on a nationally top heavy B1G, i.e., multiple B1G teams ranked very high), but our 5 losses so far are not really to top teams. We will need wins against some of the best teams in the conference to have a chance.

People can argue all they want, but metrics don't lie. Our pre-conference performance has not been really good, we started 0-2 in conference, and our metrics (selection criteria) are currently down, so it is a tough case to make it as a "sneak in" year.
Click to expand...

The only positive I can see so far this year that will help us sneak in could be the "bad" losses some of the power 5 teams have had this year by mid and low major teams. While statistically, those teams may be better than previous years, the "eye test" of seeing an IU lose to Fort Wayne or InSU, for example, won't help their causes.
 
#168      

Calvin

C
Calvin
JFGsCoffeeMug said:
This is what the committee sees when they look at our resume thru 12/23/17:
vnjays.png
Click to expand...

JFG, what site is that? That looks close to what I've seen, but doesn't, for example, have the computer metrics that are included on the team sheets for 2018.
 
#169      

Ga65

G
Ga65
Good or bad

Interesting stat is that we have had six different players lead games in scoring. (Alstork was only one point off in the conference games). Does this make us tougher to defend or inconsistent? Is this a result of our opponents defense or our offense?
 
#172      

ivwilsoniv

I
Aurora, IL
ivwilsoniv
drwillini said:
Very excited about this stretch. @WF, @NW, and MD at home will tell us a lot about where this team is going to end up. An upper division Big 10 team wins them.
Click to expand...

Going back in the posts a little, this is somewhat depressing.
 
#174      

jrichisamazing

J
jrichisamazing
Obelix said:
Not sure if you understand how RPI works. Grand Canyon and New Mexico State both play in the WAC, which is a terrible conference. Teams in weaker conferences get a boost by playing stronger teams in out of conference schedule but their RPI does not improve much when they start playing themselves and conference opponents like the Chicago States of the world. That is why, other than the automatic bid, these conference teams do not have much of a chance to get in the tournament, the rest of their metrics are bad.

Again, our RPI jumped because Mizzou was artificially extremely high. Their RPI will likely drop when they start losing in the SEC, although will not plunge because SEC is a strong conference. Our RPI will naturally improve as we get into conference play but is still very low right now, so this year is unlikely to be a case where we sneak in to the tournament due to a high RPI (and other metrics) by beating the weaker teams in the B1G. To make a run for the tournament, we need to take the B1G by storm and start accumulating wins against the stronger teams of the conference, i.e., Michigan State, Minnesota, Purdue, Michigan, etc.
Click to expand...

Obviously the most important question is how strong (or weak) is the B1G. When I made my original post to start this conversation, I was looking at KenPom which really likes the B1G right now with all 14 teams at or near the top 100. RPI, on the other hand, only has 8 teams in the top 100. I'm guessing as the season goes on KenPom and RPI will meet somewhere in the middle. Where? I have no idea because I've never paid attention to the discrepancy between the 2.
 
#175      

jrichisamazing

J
jrichisamazing
FWIW the lowest RPI to make the tournament is 67 ranked USC in 2011. So if we're not in that ballpark then we realistically have no shot. It would really suck if we have a solid B1G season, like 9-9 or 10-8, KenPom likes us, but our RPI doesn't rise enough for the committee to seriously consider us. I feel like that would make us the poster child for making RPI less of a factor on selection Sunday (which many people are already arguing for).