Illini Basketball 2018-2019

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#226      

RockfordIllini

R
RockfordIllini
TALKTOCHUCK said:
We were not a bad team last year and very few games were we beaten down. So close... So many times. We may not be as talented as last year simply losing a Jr in Black @ 4 but...
1. Second year in system for returning players.
2. 3 pt shooting has to improve. Smith-Lucas-Finke-Vessel couldn't shoot in games. Underwood specifically recruited players like Ayo-Felix-Jones-Griffin because his offense doesn't work if 1-4 can't hit the 3. I think Jones or Griffin and the (finally) emergence of Aaron Jordan will change this next season.
3. We have a huge big man in Kane.
4. We have Ayo.
5. We have players that when the game gets close they want to win, that is what Underwood said we didn't have last season and we have to presume he recruited for it this season.
6. Jordan & Kipper have their opportunity to get huge PT and change this team's outcome.
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I agree with the above. We are replacing Alstork and Smith, who must have had 2 of the worst PERs in the entire power 5 last year (if not all of CBB). Not only did they have poor shooting %, but they were also afraid to shoot. If one of Griffin/Jones can manage to bang in a couple of 3's per game and not play atrocious defense, that would be a huge upgrade over Smith's production. We may lose a bit defensively with Ayo, but he should get more buckets than Alstork, and with his length maybe he blossoms as a defender too (didn't Trent lead BIG in steals, or at least lead FROSH?).


We will miss Black's scoring down low, but honestly I could see a bit of an Ewing-theory like rebound. Black didn't pass out of the post much, so while he was effective, the offense didn't function optimally. I am hopeful maybe we get a few more easy buckets down low with some better passing from the pinch post that will make up for Black's scoring


And in the front court, we desperately needed some length and athleticism to protect the rim. There was a reason Ebo, raw has we was, began taking more of Finke's minutes as the season wore on. Ebo/Kane should be able to rotate quicker than Black/Finke, and certainly have more length to deter all of those layups we gave up last year.


I sum, I don't think we will we be worse than last year, and could be better if Kipper/Damonte/AJ take a leap or we get lucky with a couple of the new guys.
 
#227      

ChiefIllini

C
ChiefIllini
bombayIllini said:
I think the key is the three point production. If we can be consistent from the three, we should better than last year. Have we upgraded our three point consistency?
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I would imagine yes. Feliz should be better than Tejon (who I believe had an inflated 3pt percentage his freshman year, which showed the majority of his soph year, though at the end looked much nicer, probably a discussion for the past). Even if Trent and Kipper remain about the same, DMW will have a better percentage. Ayo, Griffin, and Jones should shoot better than Finke, Alstork, and Mizzou Tiger Mark Smith from deep (they had 3pt percentages of 30.9%, 24.1%, and 23.2% respectively). The only two I dont see us being able to make up for at AJ (I think he regresses, 46.3% heavily influenced OOC, though I think he settles around 40%, very much respectable especially if he takes on a higher load) and Black.

So essentially we "downgrade" 2 players, upgrade on 5 (Feliz, Griffin, Dosunmu, Jones, and DMW) and hold on Trent and Kipper. The biggest question mark at this point is to me, not necesarily the 5, but who else plays the 4? If we get Braun I think he sees decent minutes, but will Jones be the de facto backup to Kipper?
 
#228      

sacraig

sacraig
The desert
sacraig
winthiscentury said:
Did you see our team and the results last year? Now, remove our top scorer and top rebounder. If Black was back, there's a reasonable shot for the NIT and a long shot for the NCAA.

This season, sniffing the NIT and beating Chaminade in Maui should get him votes for National Coach of The Year.
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I already said that losing Black will hurt, but we have upgraded literally every other position on the floor athletically, and have a Freshman All-Big Ten PG returning, plus a 5 star PG and a true 7-footer joining the team in addition to the top Juco PG and a 4 star wing. That's far from guaranteed success, but it isn't a disaster like you seem to think.

If black was back, I'd be incredibly disappointed not to make the NCAA Tournament with that roster. Without black, I still think there's a shot at it but it's certainly much harder. It really all depends on how many of these high-risk, high-reward freshmen pan out and how quickly, and literally none of us have a crystal ball. The bar for making the big dance is actually not that high. We have just been that bad in recent years.
 
#229      

drewillini89

D
drewillini89
We're going to win more this year than last year. Some of the freshman coming in will be ready - major upgrades from players that have left since March.

The big questions which we'll just have to wait and see: how much weight can we put on the freshman bigs before B1G play, which freshmen will be ready to contribute and which will struggle, how effective with a healthy DMW be.

I think Ayo and Tevian can contribute from minute one. Trent, Andres, DMW, AJ, and Kipper will lead. Samba is going to surprise a lot of people. Spicy G and Giorgi B I think will make each other a lot better going up against each other in practice, same with Kipper and Tevian.
 
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#230      

UCantHideYer

U
UCantHideYer
Too many facets to account for whether we'll be better this year, including if the ball goes in, injuries, and officiating. But I'm excited by the potential. Just the dynamics of what our practices will be like. I don't think a Giorgi would automatically feel they were a backseat to Ebo or Kane. Mav was nothing to us until Thorne got injured. A couple of our serviceable bigs competing in practice could really pan out. And I really like the thought of Kipper vs Tevian. Serviceable depth, we seem like we'll have.
 
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#231      

Goldtop

Goldtop
Goldtop
drewillini89 said:
We're going to win more this year than last year.
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I think we will win more conference games, but our non conference schedule is going to be tough. Yet to be seen if this will round out to more wins.
 
#232      

Dan

Dan
Admin
Dan
Georgetown @ Illinois game: Tuesday, Nov 13th

2018 Gavitt Games:
https://twitter.com/B1GMBBall/status/996466586046394368



Full schedule typically released in early August


Here's the known reported schedule so far (reposted on the first post of thread)-

Evansville at Illinois on Thu., Nov. 8th
Georgetown at Illinois (Gavitt Games) on Tue., Nov. 13th
Maui Invitational Nov. 19-21
2 Big Ten early games between Fri., Nov. 30th-Tue., Dec. 4th
UNLV at Illinois on Sat., Dec. 8th
Illinois vs Missouri on Sat., Dec. 22nd


Illinois' 20-game B1G schedule breakdown-

HOME & AWAY
Indiana
Minnesota
Nebraska
Northwestern
Ohio State
Penn State
Wisconsin

HOME ONLY
Michigan
Michigan State
Rutgers

AWAY ONLY
Iowa
Maryland (game reportedly to be played in NYC)
Purdue
 
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#234      

bobbob

B
bobbob
Peoria Illini said:
It's been well hashed this past season how many close games we should have or could have won, etc. Not saying 14-18 was close to getting in, but if things turned out as good as it could have, compared to how bad it ended up for us at the end of games, then we would have been in contention.

And I think we will be better at most aspects of the game this season compared to last, and will have a decent shot at making the field.

I could be all wet, but hey, I'm an old guy. I don't really two craps about most things... LOL
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We were 102 in kenpom, which is based on efficiency. That somewhat takes out the "close games we should have" won.

We were no where close to the dance. We weren't even close to the NIT.
 
#235      

Second and Chalmers

S
Second and Chalmers
bobbob said:
We were 102 in kenpom, which is based on efficiency. That somewhat takes out the "close games we should have" won.

We were no where close to the dance. We weren't even close to the NIT.
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This. People really need to get that through their heads.

The positive is that there is a lot of room for marked, quantifiable improvement that doesn't require unrealistic miracles.
 
#236      

foby

foby
Bonnaroo Land
foby
PlayAZ said:
Illinois' 20-game B1G schedule breakdown-

HOME & AWAY
Indiana W/L
Minnesota W/W
Nebraska L/L
Northwestern W/L
Ohio State W/L
Penn State W/W
Wisconsin W/L

HOME ONLY
Michigan L
Michigan State L
Rutgers W

AWAY ONLY
Iowa W
Maryland (game reportedly to be played in NYC) L
Purdue L

10-10?
Click to expand...


Agree with the record as probably best we can do this year, but no way we are swept by Nebraska, and think we win one of the State of M games.
 
#237      

FeelYourPaign

FeelYourPaign
So Cal
FeelYourPaign
PlayAZ said:
Illinois' 20-game B1G schedule breakdown-

HOME & AWAY
Indiana W/L
Minnesota W/W
Nebraska L/L
Northwestern W/L
Ohio State W/L
Penn State W/W
Wisconsin W/L

HOME ONLY
Michigan L
Michigan State L
Rutgers W

AWAY ONLY
Iowa W
Maryland (game reportedly to be played in NYC) L
Purdue L

10-10?
Click to expand...

I'm not as optimistic about those two games against PSU as you are, but have hopes that you are generally correct.

I really doubt that we reach .500 in conference this year, but hope springs eternal and I haven't given up on the possibility.
 
#239      

BananaShampoo

B
Captain 'Paign
Phoenix, AZ
BananaShampoo
TALKTOCHUCK said:
It is like you guys didn't actually watch the games last year. Ken Pom or any other analysis can objectively say whatever. I watched the games last year, sometimes more than once and we were not far from the tournament.

Wake Forest/Northwestern/Maryland/UNLV/New Mexico State

were all closer games. We win those games and we are 15-0 and 15-0 teams make the tournament.

From the NMSU game on this season became a nightmare as coach spoke of the team not caring/expecting victory.

Certainly you can win close games or lose them, but last season we lost them. Almost all of them. I will say the Indiana/GCU games were the only close games we won. 2-11 in close games. We split those down the middle and this team very close to the tournament.
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Agree we looked much better in person than we did on paper. Our average margin of loss was pretty low, only getting blown out two or 3 times? I know Wisconsin at Kohl and PSU at home was a definite low point. Other than those, we had at least 3 or 4 games where if the fates had blown slightly a different way they would have been Ws, and at least we'd have had a shot at the NIT.
 
#240      

Second and Chalmers

S
Second and Chalmers
TALKTOCHUCK said:
I will say the Indiana/GCU games were the only close games we won.
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UT Martin, Austin Peay, Mizzou, Nebraska, DePaul, it depends on how you define it.

We were certainly closer to losing all of those games than we were to beating, say, Ohio State or Wake Forest.

We were unlucky overall in terms of close games, no argument there. But when you're miles and miles away from the tourney, that all comes out in the wash. 16-16 (6-12) would have been the same difference. We were terrible, nothing to be gained from sugarcoating it.
 
#241      

Peoria Illini

P
Peoria, IL
Peoria Illini
Second and Chalmers said:
UT Martin, Austin Peay, Mizzou, Nebraska, DePaul, it depends on how you define it.

We were certainly closer to losing all of those games than we were to beating, say, Ohio State or Wake Forest.

We were unlucky overall in terms of close games, no argument there. But when you're miles and miles away from the tourney, that all comes out in the wash. 16-16 (6-12) would have been the same difference. We were terrible, nothing to be gained from sugarcoating it.
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I guess some of my posts were lost or taken down, or I'm too old to find them, LOL. I agree, record wise, not close. But we still blew games that had we won, might have made a change in the season. But that's neither here nor there now. IMO the only really tough hit we took in this offseason was Leron Black. I would have liked to have Tejon still around, but I think we've adequately replaced him, and then some. We are younger, but I think we have improved the team with athleticism and skill, and I think we will compete for a spot in the tourney.

S&C, do you think we have a shot at the Dance next year?
 
#242      

Second and Chalmers

S
Second and Chalmers
Peoria Illini said:
S&C, do you think we have a shot at the Dance next year?
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Definitely. Less than 50% I'd say, but a team with talent in the backcourt always has a shot.

It would be nice to make the tourney. It is utterly essential that we visibly, quantifiably progress in player development, team cohesion, and system execution. You'll know it if you see it.

Nothing on the recruiting front is going to matter if that doesn't happen.
 
#243      

ChiefIllini

C
ChiefIllini
Second and Chalmers said:
Definitely. Less than 50% I'd say, but a team with talent in the backcourt always has a shot.

It would be nice to make the tourney. It is utterly essential that we visibly, quantifiably progress in player development, team cohesion, and system execution. You'll know it if you see it.

Nothing on the recruiting front is going to matter if that doesn't happen.
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I remember watching an Oklahoma State game early in the 2016 season by chance at a bar. They looked terrible, literally couldn't do anything right. BU was on my shortlist after the 2015-2016 season, though I wanted to see him prove it at a higher major than SFA. Heavily doubted I'd feel the same about him if Groce was to be fired after the 2017 season after watching that one game. Fast forward to one of their last games in 2017 and I questioned what happened to that team. Their record reflected this change, but so did their team play. Almost unstoppable on offense. Saw them penetrate kick out on almost every possession at least once. Wide open shots almost every time. It was crazy, and this was against KU (think they lost but they were in a position to win late). Thought to myself BU has literally worked magic there, wrote him off as being at OSU for the long haul.

Obviously I expected similar here. Maybe it was the talent at OSU and BU finally got it to click, or maybe they picked up on the system faster, or maybe something completely different, but if BU can get illinois to flip a switch like that, I expect a tourney appearance this year. Disclaimer: I said the same thing last year.
 
#244      

sacraig

sacraig
The desert
sacraig
ChiefIllini said:
Obviously I expected similar here. Maybe it was the talent at OSU and BU finally got it to click, or maybe they picked up on the system faster, or maybe something completely different, but if BU can get illinois to flip a switch like that, I expect a tourney appearance this year. Disclaimer: I said the same thing last year.
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The key difference was likely Jawun Evans and some reasonable semblance of post defense. We had neither an NBA first-rounder nor anyone capable of playing defense down low, and it showed. We were clearly a much better team by the end of the year than at the beginning, though, and that was heartening.
 
#245      

Tacomallini

T
Washington State
Tacomallini
RockfordIllini said:
I agree with the above. We are replacing Alstork and Smith, who must have had 2 of the worst PERs in the entire power 5 last year (if not all of CBB). Not only did they have poor shooting %, but they were also afraid to shoot. If one of Griffin/Jones can manage to bang in a couple of 3's per game and not play atrocious defense, that would be a huge upgrade over Smith's production. We may lose a bit defensively with Ayo, but he should get more buckets than Alstork, and with his length maybe he blossoms as a defender too (didn't Trent lead BIG in steals, or at least lead FROSH?).
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I honestly read this and said, "who the hell is Smith?" Had to look him up on the scholarship grid thread, lol. How quickly we (I) forget...
 
#246      

Tacomallini

T
Washington State
Tacomallini
ChiefIllini said:
So essentially we "downgrade" 2 players, upgrade on 5 (Feliz, Griffin, Dosunmu, Jones, and DMW) and hold on Trent and Kipper. The biggest question mark at this point is to me, not necesarily the 5, but who else plays the 4? If we get Braun I think he sees decent minutes, but will Jones be the de facto backup to Kipper?
Click to expand...

That's my biggest concern for next year too. Would love to see Kipper play in his "natural" position in this position less scheme. Same for Tevian. If/when they play the 4, I'd like it to be to cause mismatches, and not be out of necessity.
 
#247      

AnticipatedSerendipity

A
AnticipatedSerendipity
Ayo, Trent, and Damonte are what makes me excited for next year. They will be fun to watch, and my prediction to start. Samba and Jones are the X factors that will make or break the season
 
#248      

Tacomallini

T
Washington State
Tacomallini
GolfFan1 said:
It is funny how all last season everyone I talked to said "We need a big guy". Now we get a true 7 footer and everyone says we still need a Big Guy. I am thrilled with Kane. Have you seen his highlight film and have you read the interview with his Prep School coach. He was ranked as the No. 1 player in Colorado. Underwood told Mark Tupper that fans are going to be pleasantly surprised with Samba.
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Good point. I too am thrilled with Kane. Would love to see him and Ebo in the lineup at some point next year, just to see a twin towers defense, if nothing else.
But it's the depth at the 4 that has me concerned. If we don't add anyone else, I see major minutes going to Giorgi, whether he's ready for them or not. Kane and Ebo will certainly get in foul trouble too. Kipper/Jones should be serviceable at the 4, but would like at least one more body that's not an undersized 4.
 
#249      

Tacomallini

T
Washington State
Tacomallini
AnticipatedSerendipity said:
Ayo, Trent, and Damonte are what makes me excited for next year. They will be fun to watch, and my prediction to start. Samba and Jones are the X factors that will make or break the season
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Last year's team was more exciting than most Illini teams in the Weber/Groce era, and that was just from playing hard-nosed defense. Add in a little offense to the mix, and next year's team could be really fun to watch.
 
#250      

FC Illiniman

F
FC Illiniman
Tacomallini said:
That's my biggest concern for next year too. Would love to see Kipper play in his "natural" position in this position less scheme. Same for Tevian. If/when they play the 4, I'd like it to be to cause mismatches, and not be out of necessity.
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Hoping Kipper can play consistent and be in most games would be great. He got lost so many times, would come to bench with "who cares" look. That was the culture we lacked, the winning thing. Now we have Some winners for him to play with,he might hang to ball a bit longer, or slam dunk instead of clunk dunk. Think we will develop a 4 that will play, hopefully Kipper is a double double one. Then we can plug in a back up, Jones,Braun, DMW whom ever, and make a difference, around the basket.
Coach O will have his hands full, but think he is the one that will make it happen. ;):illinois:
 
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