Illini Basketball 2018-2019

dbeverly26 · Nov 29, 2018

Obelix said:
Optimism has nothing to do with being delusional. On the contrary, I do not believe that Illinois is destined to be perpetually bad, I actually believe that Illinois as a program has great, really great untapped potential. I just don't believe it will happen with just blind faith. The way you do it is by looking at what was the underlying talent level in the 80s and 1999-06 and try to achieve that with consistent recruiting rather than blind faith that we can do it with miraculously discovering diamonds in the rough better than other programs or BU outsysteming and outsmarting the rest of BIG and national coaches.

When blind "hope" fades, then we tend to hear all the excuses that recruiting is not possible, that everyone else cheats, that our location is bad, and we do not have the resources. If you believe those, then you believe that Illinois will indeed be perpetually bad because I can tell you for sure that our location will not change and UI is not likely winning the lottery of academic and AD budgets anytime soon.

What's the point of all of this, though? Do you actually believe that what you or anyone else on this board feels about this team will make a whit of difference in terms of how they move forward? Is Josh Whitman twiddling his fingers and not taking what you might consider the right kind of action because we aren't pissed enough?

If you think that Underwood should be fired right now, or if you think that he's never going to be successful, just come out and say it. It'll save us all a lot of time.

DudeIllini · Nov 29, 2018

Obelix said:
Optimism has nothing to do with being delusional. On the contrary, I do not believe that Illinois is destined to be perpetually bad, I actually believe that Illinois as a program has great, really great untapped potential. I just don't believe it will happen with just blind faith. The way you do it is by looking at what was the underlying talent level in the 80s and 1999-06 and try to achieve that with consistent recruiting rather than blind faith that we can do it with miraculously discovering diamonds in the rough better than other programs or BU outsysteming and outsmarting the rest of BIG and national coaches.

When blind "hope" fades, then we tend to hear all the excuses that recruiting is not possible, that everyone else cheats, that our location is bad, and we do not have the resources. If you believe those, then you believe that Illinois will indeed be perpetually bad because I can tell you for sure that our location will not change and UI is not likely winning the lottery of academic and AD budgets anytime soon.

Look we can't focus our attention away from "hope" and towards recruiting to enhance our recruiting performance. If we could Illinois would be amazing because our fans are nuts about recruiting. So again, this doesn't make sense because we have no control over this. Obviously everyone agrees that better recruiting would be better.

dbeverly26 · Nov 29, 2018

mattcoldagelli said:
As for what can be done now - I dunno, maybe tweaking a defensive approach that currently allows any opponent to get a layup or a trip to the FT line at the time and place of their choosing? We cannot stop anybody. It's an emergency that has the chance to take a season that could be middling-but-with-signs-of-encouragement and tank it into a fanbase-poisoning nosedive. Time to get over the pride and try something different.

This is an honest question -- do you think that the personnel on this team, right now, would be effective defending the hoop and cleaning up the boards if the right system is installed? I don't. I see a team with two guys over 6'7" who are ready to play right now, neither of whom are particularly effective rebounders. In that context, isn't it a better idea to try and limit the number of shots a team can get at the basket?

If you turn the other team over, you get a stop and don't have to worry about a rebound. If you're this version of Illinois, even if you force a missed shot the other team will get a second shot 35-40% of the time. All of that's problematic and needs to be addressed as new personnel come in, but with this team, right now, I'm not sure there's a magic bullet.

mattcoldagelli · Nov 29, 2018

dbeverly26 said:
Do you actually believe that what you or anyone else on this board feels about this team will make a whit of difference

dbeverly26 said:
If you think that Underwood should be fired right now, or if you think that he's never going to be successful, just come out and say it.

"It doesn't matter what you think!"

Also, "tell us what you really think, right away!"

Obelix · Nov 29, 2018

superman man said:
And until then, I'm A-OK with being "patient" and preaching "rebuilding" if only to add to to the few positive voices on this board.

Again consistent recruiting is by far the most critical element of rebuilding. You can preach "rebuilding" without any justification as a surrogate to showing bad results, yet someday, somehow this might change. One of the most dangerous things in life is believing you are going in the right direction when you are not, just for the sake of being positive.

illini80 · Nov 29, 2018

dbeverly26 said:
This is an honest question -- do you think that the personnel on this team, right now, would be effective defending the hoop and cleaning up the boards if the right system is installed? I don't. I see a team with two guys over 6'7" who are ready to play right now, neither of whom are particularly effective rebounders. In that context, isn't it a better idea to try and limit the number of shots a team can get at the basket?

If you turn the other team over, you get a stop and don't have to worry about a rebound. If you're this version of Illinois, even if you force a missed shot the other team will get a second shot 35-40% of the time. All of that's problematic and needs to be addressed as new personnel come in, but with this team, right now, I'm not sure there's a magic bullet.

I believe any team can be adequate at defending and rebounding.

dbeverly26 · Nov 29, 2018

mattcoldagelli said:
"It doesn't matter what you think!"

Also, "tell us what you really think, right away!"

lol, yeah. It matters to the people on this board who choose to listen to this prattle, but not the DIA. That's not a difficult concept.

dbeverly26 · Nov 29, 2018

illini80 said:
I believe any team can be adequate at defending and rebounding.

Then why are some teams good and some bad?

mattcoldagelli · Nov 29, 2018

dbeverly26 said:
This is an honest question -- do you think that the personnel on this team, right now, would be effective defending the hoop and cleaning up the boards if the right system is installed? I don't. I see a team with two guys over 6'7" who are ready to play right now, neither of whom are particularly effective rebounders. In that context, isn't it a better idea to try and limit the number of shots a team can get at the basket?

If you turn the other team over, you get a stop and don't have to worry about a rebound. If you're this version of Illinois, even if you force a missed shot the other team will get a second shot 35-40% of the time. All of that's problematic and needs to be addressed as new personnel come in, but with this team, right now, I'm not sure there's a magic bullet.

Yes, limiting shots would be great. We are not doing that. We are not just allowing shots, but allowing the easiest, highest percentage shots that anyone can take on a basketball court. And compounding this is the fact that our offense is not consistently taking advantage of the turnovers we are creating.

This is a tired message board trope, so it pains me to point it out, but rebounding is not a synonym for height. Rebounding is a skill that can be taught. [gritting teeth] Look at Michigan State.

I tend to agree with you we are not going to become a great defensive team. But I think there is a middle ground between "great defensive team" and "hemorrhaging layups" and we need to start doing whatever is humanly possible to get there.

Obelix · Nov 29, 2018

dbeverly26 said:
What's the point of all of this, though? Do you actually believe that what you or anyone else on this board feels about this team will make a whit of difference in terms of how they move forward?

Sure I do. I actually believe that expressing criticism and disagreeing with how things are progressing when not getting results is what people need to do in life, whether on message boards or any way they can. Maybe you believe in just staying silent in life or just offering praise is the right thing to do, just because you are not the ultimate decision maker. I don't live life like that. I actually believe that many economic and even political crises and situations would have been avoided if more people (not just the ultimate decision makers) had expressed disagreement with how things were going.

illini80 · Nov 29, 2018

dbeverly26 said:
Then why are some teams good and some bad?

Some combination of player commitment and coaching, but I can't tell you exactly what. Either the players have yet to understand the defense or they are unable athletically to execute it. We have good enough athletes to play an effective defense imo. Maybe not this one though.

Honestly what disturbs me is that we are not just a step late recovering. I'd have hope if that were the case. We are 5 steps late we are so out of position. We don't appear to recognize at all where the ball is likely to go or where the open man is.

dbeverly26 · Nov 29, 2018

mattcoldagelli said:
Yes, limiting shots would be great. We are not doing that. We are not just allowing shots, but allowing the easiest, highest percentage shots that anyone can take on a basketball court. And compounding this is the fact that our offense is not consistently taking advantage of the turnovers we are creating.

This is a tired message board trope, so it pains me to point it out, but rebounding is not a synonym for height. Rebounding is a skill that can be taught. [gritting teeth] Look at Michigan State.

I tend to agree with you we are not going to become a great defensive team. But I think there is a middle ground between "great defensive team" and "hemorrhaging layups" and we need to start doing whatever is humanly possible to get there.

Rebounding is a skill, but I don't think you can entirely dismiss the physical aspect of it. MSU is in another universe athletically, and that matters.

I will agree with your point that we're not limiting shots the way we should. I think that has more to do with consistent effort and an athleticism deficit than it does with the system, though. When they actually get out and pressure the ball, they've shown that they can put in good defensive performances. They just haven't done that for 40 minutes on a regular basis, which is a concern on its own.

I'd like to see this team get to a better spot any way they can. I just don't know if that's as easy as sagging back into the paint.

westms77 · Nov 29, 2018

Obelix · Nov 29, 2018

superman man said:
Appreciate the life lesson. My justification is that I believe Underwood is the right coach based on his track record. Recruiting is important but we have consistently had solid recruits over the last 10 years that have not developed to their potential. Having a coaching staff that can develop players to reach their potential is just as important as recruiting results IMO

First, the level of talent on our roster the last 13 years has not been nowhere near where it should have been to consistently contend in B1G (with the lone exception of 2010-11) and the level of recruiting since 2003 (when Self left) has been neither solid nor consistent, with a lot of roster positional gaps.

As far as Underwood, he has never had a prior reputation of results as a recruiter, so whether he is indeed the right fit at Illinois is questionable especially when our own history of success was built on talent (1980s, 1999-06). Underwood has also very little track record as a high major coach (just his 3rd year). Almost all coaches in high-majors got their jobs based on some level of success at lower ranks, yet there are plenty of coaches who could not succeed at high majors or at a specific high major (bad fits).

Illinoise · Nov 29, 2018

mattcoldagelli said:
But this honestly should not be taking that long. You do not need 3-4 years to turn a basketball program around - this isn't football, where we see the "burn it down, then build it up" which necessitates stacking recruiting classes to get upperclassmen at key contributing positions. Further, with the increasingly lax transfer rules, you're just not going to get that time. Players are going to bail, especially under a coach as tough as Underwood. That style can flourish when it's resulting in wins. When you struggle to get to 15 wins? Not so much.

"Get better players" is obvious to the point of being unhelpful, but that is the number one thing that needs to happen. Recruiting is not where it needs to be, no matter how many diamonds we are pulling out of the Austrian Basketball League.

As for what can be done now - I dunno, maybe tweaking a defensive approach that currently allows any opponent to get a layup or a trip to the FT line at the time and place of their choosing? We cannot stop anybody. It's an emergency that has the chance to take a season that could be middling-but-with-signs-of-encouragement and tank it into a fanbase-poisoning nosedive. Time to get over the pride and try something different.

It can happen fast but Leron Black leaving was a dagger to any real chance of that happening. He would have been a great piece for this team to have. Most quick turnarounds have a few good pieces to build around with freshmen and sophomores and transfers. This team not so much. KN has just been confusing to watch. I think his confidence is just destroyed. Maybe the coach is to blame for that but they are getting nothing from him. AJ has been pretty good offensively but he just can’t stay in front of anyone. It’s not his fault, just not in his DNA.

ILL in IA · Nov 29, 2018

I can only imagine what is being said off the air by our radio guys this year so far. Have to avoid a hot mic like the Iowa broadcast did the other night.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1067756928544239616

dbeverly26 · Nov 29, 2018

Obelix said:
Sure I do. I actually believe that expressing criticism and disagreeing with how things are progressing when not getting results is what people need to do in life, whether on message boards or any way they can. Maybe you believe in just staying silent in life or just offering praise is the right thing to do, just because you are not the ultimate decision maker. I don't live life like that. I actually believe that many economic and even political crises and situations would have been avoided if more people (not just the ultimate decision makers) had expressed disagreement with how things were going.

Fair enough, and good luck. I'm just not ready to get on that bandwagon yet.

Obelix · Nov 29, 2018

superman man said:
I agree about his recruiting and can't argue that there are coaches with similar backgrounds that have failed. But Underwood's system and player development give him a good chance at being successful here IMO. And I don't think Illinois' history of success predicated on recruiting results necessitates that we can't base our future success more on player development. Recruiting definitely needs to catch up though, I just don't think we need to recruit at an elite level.

Also, there's no doubt that we haven't been able to develop players over the last 10 or so years. I can't remember where it was posted but someone on this board graphed the ratio of success/recruiting for the last 10 years and we were dead last in the Big Ten.

As I have said many times, strong recruiting is a necessary but not sufficient condition. The major problem is that "necessary" element.

I also believe that Underwood has often being portrayed here as the master of player development and the genius of system that will outsmart and outperform other excellent coaches in the B1G and around the country. I have honestly not seen the justification of those claims yet either.

CoalCity · Nov 29, 2018

Maybe the 77-103 conference record since 2007? That's a winning percentage of .428. Pretty bad.

During that stretch there have been 2 seasons where we won double digit games (11 and 10 in 2007 and 2008 respectively so not clearing that bar by much and not for a long time) and 6 seasons where we lost double digit games.

No matter how you look at it that's bad basketball for the last 10 years.

PtownIllini8 · Nov 29, 2018

pruman91 said:
I inherited a staff of 80 agents years ago after my company fired the previous sales manager and I had a revolving door, trap door and elevator shaft to get rid of the deadbeats there...

Bu has had 1 season and 7 games into the second yr...If we were doing great he still would be at OSU...and the transferred players would still be here..

Old saying in sales
" change is necessary for growth ".....Lets hope BU changes from time to time as he proceeds further in his coaching at UI.....
And lets hope that the players change and eliminate the bonehead plays we have seen the last 1+ seasons

So you believe there's some correlation between your job and coaching at U of I????

Obelix · Nov 29, 2018

dbeverly26 said:
Fair enough, and good luck. I'm just not ready to get on that bandwagon yet.

If you mean the bandwagon of current criticism, I am certainly on that current bandwagon. And I am certainly on the bandwagon that building a consistent NCAA tournament team can't be achieved without strong recruiting beyond current course of speed.

Just to clarify, I am in no bandwagon that says that BU will never achieve NCAA tournament. As said in previous post in this thread, I actually think it is very likely that we make the NCAA tournament sometime in the next 1-2 years based primarily on Trent/Ayo. But the elements of building, or rebuilding, a consistent NCAA tournament and B1G contender are certainly not there right now, with some serious concerns of recruiting direction.

When BU got the job the job I had some serious concerns about recruiting. Joe Henricksen had mentioned (I believe it was an audio interview) the same concerns. Yet, I was very encouraged and praised him for the hiring or Orlando and Chin, both of whom I consider strong recruiting assistants.

Again, I do not think what we have seen so far is promising in terms of building a consistent NCAA team and B1G contender. That is the reason of my criticism. I do not think we are on the right track, especially in recruiting. But it does not mean that IF the staff drastically turns it around, and that is a big IF IMO, that I would (and I imagine others) not be as happy (or even more).

PtownIllini8 · Nov 29, 2018

FiveStar said:
Correlation IS causation amirite?

No, correlation means there is some relationship between the two things that might be causative. Causation means that the one thing directly caused the other.

ILL in IA · Nov 29, 2018

PtownIllini8 said:
No, correlation means there is some relationship between the two things that might be causative. Causation means that the one thing directly caused the other.

So what would be the causation of responding to sarcastic posts as if they are done with serious intent? Or would that be correlation. I am all mixed up on this now.

Efrem Winters fan · Nov 29, 2018

ILL in IA said:
Rebuilds take a while yes, but they don't have to in basketball like they do in football. We need 1 or 2 dudes that are just better at basketball then most other guys and bam, we are back.

I agree that rebuilds can be expedited with a couple of key players but I’m not sure everyone is being realistic about expectations. We have 7 new players, one senior and a grad transfer coming off an ACL injury. Think of the difference having Black or Finke this year would make - not only because of their college experience but also because of their familiarity with Underwood’s system. We are forced to play underclassman significant minutes and we have to live with the mistakes of youth as well as learning BU’s game. I will be happy if the team grows with each game and expect them to win a couple games they are not supposed to this year. As good as Ayo is, he forced some shots driving (against ND) and got stuffed. Expect Giorgi to continue his excellent trajectory and Jones and Griffin to contribute more too. Damone is solid and Feliz is a good role player. We will have Samba, Higgs and January to help as well. I expect them to figure out quite a few things this year and play much smarter next year. I would love to add Kofi Cockburn but either way I expect nothing less than making it to the dance in 2020!

TheGMan · Nov 29, 2018

Obelix said:
Optimism has nothing to do with being delusional. On the contrary, I do not believe that Illinois is destined to be perpetually bad, I actually believe that Illinois as a program has great, really great untapped potential. I just don't believe it will happen with just blind faith. The way you do it is by looking at what was the underlying talent level in the 80s and 1999-06 and try to achieve that with consistent recruiting rather than blind faith that we can do it with miraculously discovering diamonds in the rough better than other programs or BU outsysteming and outsmarting the rest of BIG and national coaches.

When blind "hope" fades, then we tend to hear all the excuses that recruiting is not possible, that everyone else cheats, that our location is bad, and we do not have the resources. If you believe those, then you believe that Illinois will indeed be perpetually bad because I can tell you for sure that our location will not change and UI is not likely winning the lottery of academic and AD budgets anytime soon.

Let's not kid ourselves that the faith level of the fanbase has anything to do with the product on the course. Our opinions are pointless...