Illini Basketball 2018-2019

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#1,276      
Who do you propose we blame for the current roster construction?

You don't get to say "oh man, lots of roster turnover is what is causing this to be a rough rebuild, we shouldn't blame the coach" because the coach is the one who creates the turnover.

And the idea that anyone is looking at our roster and thinking "too much talent, I better go some place else" is laughable.
Lots of players leave teams because they are poorly positioned on the depth chart - even this Illini squad. How is it laughable to suggest that TJL was behind Trent, Ayo and Da’monte? This team DOES have quite a bit of talent. It’s just thin and inexperienced as far as bigs are concerned. Also, TJL was suspended. It’s quite possible he was resentful and wanted to leave. Black had graduated and wanted to start earning money with his new wife. Finke got a chance to play with his brother. Smith got plenty of opportunity and didn’t produce. It’s not like BU ran these guys out and again these were not HIS guys by and large. The future looks bright moving forward. We just need to gain experience and build the culture.
 
#1,277      
It seems like you completely missed the entire point of that post.

Let me reiterate it. We have a really really SMALL sample size to look at currently. So whatever predisposition you have is meaningless. It is about to be game 8 of year 2. Your judgements are all premature and all based on assumption. Just like everyone else on this board. Nobody for sure knows what we have with Underwood yet. Nobody will really know until the end of next season.

So many fans on this board are deciding to trust the process and see what we get. That includes me. All you are doing is arbitrarily projecting concepts that are based on a single season as if it's some foregone conclusion. There are two full seasons left imo before anyone can be asserting what we have or don't have with Underwood at the helm. If it ends up being anything like what Bob Huggins and Frank Martin have established I will be satisfied.

I did not miss anything. I answered directly to your points on both recruiting and development based on what has happened so far in BU's tenure. Rather than making arbitrary projections like "we will always consistently have top 30 recruiting classes" or statements that we will be able to look at as a fan base and say "wow Underwood really molded them into something special." Who is making arbitrary projections again?
 
#1,278      
You don't say. Smith left of his own volition. Am sure the vast majority of us wanted him to stay.

Sure, but there were also some epic frequent posts diminishing his ability to contribute at Missouri and become a decent player, let alone ever become good.
 
#1,279      

skyIdub

Winged Warrior
Sadly I feel the Braggin' Rights game will motivate him like THT in Maui. I don't think he can dominate like THT, but don't be surprised if he goes off against us.
 
#1,280      
I do not think we can compare last year with this year. BU has always stated that last year he did not implement his O, it was too simplified. This year on the other hand hs has implemented it, but - from what I have understood - he expects it to be in pretty close to full-swing by Jan 1 (a month from now). Even today, his main complain is that there are very few slashers (I have no idea what that means, since I do not undertsnad his O).

Same on D. He has implemented a lot more this year, but kids are just getting used to it. Again, his main concern is FT, he complains that the younger kids do not take charges.

These are things I have heard him say. Not that I understand the details.

Another observation. Bigs. That is OA's job and I think they will make good progress.

I still have concerns about Kip - I think he does not understand what is expected out of him.

JMHTs.
 
#1,281      
I did not miss anything. I answered directly to your points on both recruiting and development based on what has happened so far in BU's tenure. Rather than making arbitrary projections like "we will always consistently have top 30 recruiting classes" or statements that we will be able to look at as a fan base and say "wow Underwood really molded them into something special." Who is making arbitrary projections again?

My sample size of player development from Underwood from his time as an assistant, when he was head coach at SFA, and head coach at OSU is much more reliable than your projections after one season. And you gotta be kidding about the top 30 recruiting classes right? As long as there are at least 3 scholarships up for grabs we will always sneak into the 30-35 range. But either way player development is more important than your recruiting consistently theory. Weber had an excellent class in 2012 and look what happened to it.
 
#1,282      

Joel Goodson

respect my decision™
Sure, but there were also some epic frequent posts diminishing his ability to contribute at Missouri and become a decent player, let alone ever become good.

Every fanbase has their lunatic fringe. We are not immune, lol.
 
#1,283      
Very folksy, but pretty off point as well. Blame Coach U for Black having his degree and leaving after 4 years to play pro ball...really?
Blame Coach U for Finke being a 5th year guy who wanted to go play with his brother, whom we didn't want....o.....k.
Blame Coach U for Vessel and Ebo leaving? Really?
Blame Coach U for Smith seeing at least 2 better PGs on our team and wanting to play that postion?
Same for Lucas who saw PG as a crowd house.

So yeah, double Bob...

Nobody knows, but it’s certainly plausible. Would Black and Finke have stayed if they believed in BU, his system, and loved playing for him? IDK, maybe they did and still left. Vessel obviously didn’t belong on a B1G team. Ebo definitely was raw but showed potential similar to Samba. Was he uncomfortable here? Mark Smith doesn’t play PG at Mizzou either.

We can spin it however we like. Nobody knows. 1 year could certainly be an outlier, but 2 years makes a trend. If Tev Jones is the next Mark Smith, if Samba is another Ebo, if another good contributor leaves for another reason...then next year will be another year of transition and BU probably won’t be here for year 4.
 
#1,284      
Rebuilds take a while yes, but they don't have to in basketball like they do in football. We need 1 or 2 dudes that are just better at basketball then most other guys and bam, we are back.
This only works if the players stick around. Underwood's system isnt something that is learned in 1 season. In order for this thing to work he needs to start keeping guys around. Losing so many last yr did not help matters any. Imagine this team with Leron and even Finke. We would be a lot better. This team is young and its going to take another year to really start seeing results as long as nobody of importance jumps ship.
 
#1,285      
My sample size of player development from Underwood from his time as an assistant, when he was head coach at SFA, and head coach at OSU is much more reliable than your projections after one season. And you gotta be kidding about the top 30 recruiting classes right? As long as there are at least 3 scholarships up for grabs we will always sneak into the 30-35 range. But either way player development is more important than your recruiting consistently theory. Weber had an excellent class in 2012 and look what happened to it.

Don't try to backtrack, stop accusing people and stop making arbitrary projections yourself. My post responded about recruiting and development based on what has happened so far in BU's tenure at UI not about any projections. You can talk all you want about SFA but SFA has nothing to do with what will happen at Illinois with player development or recruiting. You are the one who made arbitrary projections about the future of recruiting and development at UI, not SFA.
 
#1,286      

Deleted member 8632

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Smith is currently leading Missouri in scoring and is second in rebounds and assists. He has only three turnovers on the year.
Through his first 6 games in an Illini uniform he averaged 12ppg. It's not the offensive side of the ball that makes Mark a liability. That will be exposed when SEC conference play starts, just as it was last year when big 10 play started. He will be a good player, statistically, for Missouri, but if you give up as many as you score that's a problem.
 
#1,287      
Don't try to backtrack, stop accusing people and stop making arbitrary projections yourself. My post responded about recruiting and development based on what has happened so far in BU's tenure at UI not about any projections. You can talk all you want about SFA but SFA has nothing to do with what will happen at Illinois with player development or recruiting. You are the one who made arbitrary projections about the future of recruiting and development at UI, not SFA.

So you're not supposed to use past coaching positions for examples of player development? Uhh what? That is much better than your evaluation after one freaking season.

And if you don't see how great this freshman class can be then man idk what you've been watching. Next season is going to be beautiful.
 
#1,288      

IllFanInMi

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It seems that you complete


It seems like you completely missed the entire point of that post.

Let me reiterate it. We have a really really SMALL sample size to look at currently. So whatever predisposition you have is meaningless. It is about to be game 8 of year 2. Your judgements are all premature and all based on assumption. Just like everyone else on this board. Nobody for sure knows what we have with Underwood yet. Nobody will really know until the end of next season.

So many fans on this board are deciding to trust the process and see what we get. That includes me. All you are doing is arbitrarily projecting concepts that are based on a single season as if it's some foregone conclusion. There are two full seasons left imo before anyone can be asserting what we have or don't have with Underwood at the helm. If it ends up being anything like what Bob Huggins and Frank Martin have established I will be satisfied.

I understand what you are saying, but there are coaches who have been on the job as short, or shorter than BU who have done amazingly better in recruiting, and not every one had the same advantages as BU. Your sample size argument is weak at best, or could also be used to strengthen the argument that BU has not recruited well enough, and others within the same sample size are doing it.
 
#1,289      
So you're not supposed to use past coaching positions for examples of player development? Uhh what? That is much better than your evaluation after one freaking season.

SFA is a low-major, has nothing to do with success at Illinois. Almost every coach in HM had some level of success at the lower levels, yet that success not always translated in HM. Illinois is no SFA. But more importantly again, stop accusing people of arbitrary projections, as my post discussed recruiting and development based on what has happened so far in BU's tenure at UI not about any projections.

Next season is going to be beautiful.

Drink.
 
#1,290      
He will be a good player, statistically, for Missouri, but if you give up as many as you score that's a problem.

Seems to be a problem with most guards that Underwood has coached at Illinois.
 
#1,291      
I don't really understand what that progress is though or that mixed bag. I could understand if recruiting was not going well but our record (evidence of system superiority) was better than previous regime. I could also understand if our record was not good, but we had made significant progress in recruiting. Both of those instances would indeed be a mixed bag. But when both of them are not going well, that is not the right direction for the program.

Personally, I am left with hope that direction will drastically change (especially in recruiting). Maybe we start landing some big time frontcourt recruits. That is honestly my hope and indeed would constitute progress. But again that is just hope, I can't honestly say that it based on actual evidence so far in BU's tenure.
In prior posts, I've laid out what I consider mitigating factors that allow me to swallow the bad stuff on the court this year a bit more easily, and also my opinion that last year's class is better than folks give it credit for based on the performance of Ayo, GB, and Griffin and the still-untapped potential of Jones and Kane. (Those two guys look like they could contribute if the game slows down and they get comfortable in the offense. No guarantees on any of that, but for me, it's something to hope on.) I assumed this would be a somewhat rough year primarily due to the schedule, and that's happened, but I'm willing to look past that and take what positives I can from a young team playing a brutally difficult slate.

I'm bothered by this year's recruiting haul to date, and by the regression we've seen from Nichols and the lack of assertiveness from Williams. So that's the bad. And I'm not under any illusion that those aren't critical issues, but that's not enough for me to write off what progress I do see. So, mixed bag. Bad record, but a tough schedule and some bright spots. Bad class of 2019, but a better than expected class of 2018.

I wanted 2019 to be a defining year, but it looks like it's 2020 or bust. We'll know a *lot* more in 13 or 14 months than we do now.
 
#1,292      
I believe player development is very hard to assign to any one coach, trainer, parent, player, etc.., AJ was a 4 star recruit, who in year 3 had a minor breakthrough and now having a breakthrough year. He has worked his arse off and deserves it. Giorgi hasn’t been here remotely long enough to assign his pleasantly surprising play to BU. Griffin is a guy that has tools, but a coaching staff can indeed mold. DW was a legit 4 star kid, and although he does a lot, this staff needs to coach his offense up!

Mark Smith appears to be doing FAR better under Clownzo than under BU, Finke regressed under BU, KN is regressing. Black had a great year, but he was a 4 star and in his 4th year, his play may have had very little to do with this staff outside of OA.

For me, if you make 3 stars play like 4 stars, or 4’s like 5’s, then you’re seriously developing players. I would expect a staff to have most of their high level recruits be productive, especially by year 4.

So if a guy plays well it is not because of BU. If a guy doesn't develop, it is all BU. Got it.
 
#1,293      

IllFanInMi

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So if a guy plays well it is not because of BU. If a guy doesn't develop, it is all BU. Got it.

Far from what I was trying to say. In a nutshell, IMO it’s far too early to assume BU’s strength is developing players, and that he will be able to overcome recruiting with it. I also believe there are various factors which determine how an athlete performs, so to assign all the praise or blame to one party is probably not accurate.
 
#1,295      

Illinifan533

Normal, Illinois
But this honestly should not be taking that long. You do not need 3-4 years to turn a basketball program around - this isn't football, where we see the "burn it down, then build it up" which necessitates stacking recruiting classes to get upperclassmen at key contributing positions. Further, with the increasingly lax transfer rules, you're just not going to get that time. Players are going to bail, especially under a coach as tough as Underwood. That style can flourish when it's resulting in wins. When you struggle to get to 15 wins? Not so much.

"Get better players" is obvious to the point of being unhelpful, but that is the number one thing that needs to happen. Recruiting is not where it needs to be, no matter how many diamonds we are pulling out of the Austrian Basketball League.

All this talk about BU's recruiting ability, but one fact that is overlooked is that his first year was kind of similar to Lovie's in that he didn't really have a recruiting class of his own his first year. Yeah, he got Mark Smith to replace Tilmon's spot, but he was a guy who was being recruited by Walker and was considered an good get at the time. Ebo and Matic were last-second depth signings that didn't work out. Like someone mentioned earlier, it also doesn't help that Black, Finke, and Lucas are not here, but if they can't handle BU's style, then it's better for both parties that they're gone.

I also hate to give any type of credit to Bruce Pearl, but it is important to note he didn't have Auburn in its current state until his 4th season. I wouldn't be surprised if BU's first 3 seasons are similar to Pearl's in that he had 15, 11, and 18-win seasons before '17-18.
 
#1,296      
Through his first 6 games in an Illini uniform he averaged 12ppg. It's not the offensive side of the ball that makes Mark a liability. That will be exposed when SEC conference play starts, just as it was last year when big 10 play started. He will be a good player, statistically, for Missouri, but if you give up as many as you score that's a problem.

I think MS has improved his offensive game a bit (release is quick and shot looks very good and consistent), but a lot of his shots are from open looks. So far, he hasn't had to really create space for himself yet. Also, I've noticed that he is still slow to react on the defense-side. Missouri will go zone which helps to mask this deficiency though. Will be very interesting to see how he does during conference play.

What's surprising is that JT hasn't really impressed me at all.
 
#1,298      
I believe Henson’s record his first 3 years at Illinois was 41 - 43. And I don’t believe his teams made the NCAA until his 6th season. Luckily for him (and, I would say, for us), internet fan forums weren’t around at the time.
 
#1,299      

Deleted member 746094

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But this honestly should not be taking that long. You do not need 3-4 years to turn a basketball program around - this isn't football, where we see the "burn it down, then build it up" which necessitates stacking recruiting classes to get upperclassmen at key contributing positions. Further, with the increasingly lax transfer rules, you're just not going to get that time. Players are going to bail, especially under a coach as tough as Underwood. That style can flourish when it's resulting in wins. When you struggle to get to 15 wins? Not so much.

"Get better players" is obvious to the point of being unhelpful, but that is the number one thing that needs to happen. Recruiting is not where it needs to be, no matter how many diamonds we are pulling out of the Austrian Basketball League.

As for what can be done now - I dunno, maybe tweaking a defensive approach that currently allows any opponent to get a layup or a trip to the FT line at the time and place of their choosing? We cannot stop anybody. It's an emergency that has the chance to take a season that could be middling-but-with-signs-of-encouragement and tank it into a fanbase-poisoning nosedive. Time to get over the pride and try something different.

I reluctantly agree with the entire last paragraph! There is no argument against the fact that our current TEAM cannot successfully execute this style of defense over 40 minutes. The talent is there to win now. Not saying 20+ wins or NCAA. But definitely.500+ season. If he doesn’t pull an OkSU adjustment of some sort we are going to get dominated by a very talented B10 this year. I have faith BU will get out of his own way...
 
#1,300      

IllFanInMi

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It may just be wiser to step back, look at the big picture and view this as a longer term rebuild. I didn’t vote on the prediction thread, but the overwhelming majority thought NCAA or NIT LAST YEAR, and I assume that percentage would be greater if the prediction asked where would this team be in year 2. I’m not ready to say we can’t make the NIT this year, but I also wouldn’t bet my piggy bank on it that it will.

Deep down my gut told me last year that NIT was realistic, and NCAA this year would be more than realistic. They had a roster capable of and for the most part proven to be at least NIT worthy. Replace JG with BU, add MS and some pieces to augment the returners and the NIT sounded like a floor at least.

We are where we are, if one can lower expectations, believe BU will ultimately prove out to be who most thought he was, then toeing the line and moving the needle out a couple years would keep the frustration levels in check. I’m not here yet and am admittedly in the pessimist camp, but I’ll at least keep my mind open to a long term rebuild, with hope, but certainly, not faith.
 
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