Illini Basketball 2021-2022

Status
Not open for further replies.
#428      

sacraig

The desert
Too bad his high school (and the University of Illinois) didn’t teach him anything about capitalization.

I’m sorry. I don’t even feel good about this post. But I couldn’t resist. I’ll see myself out.
It is definitely visually off-putting.
 
#429      

altgeld88

Arlington, Virginia
1643468264645.png

I want that image on a T-shirt. Stat.
 
#430      

pruman91

Paducah, Ky
I was thinking about this more, statistics can be scary.

What if instead the advance on ball defense stat breakdown it was just called a 'basketball kidnap'?

Like, 'Trent Frazier is the best basketball kidnapper in the country. He physically and emotionally removes the other team's best player each minute he defends them on court leaving them in a state of existential crisis which then turns to basketball Stockholm syndrome. All players are returned to the bus unharmed.'

Thoughts?
I like what BU said as that opponent gets to take a night off if Trent's guarding him.....Also , BU raved about Ayo's D in the NBA and said Trent is even better.

If I had a son i would feel very happy if BU was his coach ....Speaks volumes that so many out of state recruits are signing with us .........Indiana and Ohio used to be wastelands in Illini recruiting..........Keep at it BU......
 
#431      

CoalCity

St Paul, MN
Perhaps our point is, in games of recent memory, during the last 5+ minutes of these games we can't buy a basket. Or hit the broad side of a barn. This is where we ask RJ to take off his pullover and get in there.
The last 5 minutes of the game is where you need top quality defense. Putting in a freshman who doesn't play precisely because of his defensive lapses and lack of strength is not a good plan.
 
#432      

Tacomallini

Washington State
Too bad his high school (and the University of Illinois) didn’t teach him anything about capitalization.

I’m sorry. I don’t even feel good about this post. But I couldn’t resist. I’ll see myself out.
there are some lice cases at my kids' elementary school. let me know if you are in the area and I'll try and get you some names and addresses, so you can continue to pick at nits.
Edit: I count at least two instances where I should have used a capital letter.
 
#436      

ChiefGritty

Chicago, IL
Big Ten teams ranked by how well we usually play against them in the last 10-15 years:

1. Minnesota
2. Michigan State
3. Purdue
4. Indiana
5. Michigan
6. Iowa
7. Wisconsin
8. Rutgers
9. Nebraska
10. Ohio State
11. Maryland
12. Northwestern
13. Penn State
 
#437      
Big Ten teams ranked by how well we usually play against them in the last 10-15 years:

1. Minnesota
2. Michigan State
3. Purdue
4. Indiana
5. Michigan
6. Iowa
7. Wisconsin
8. Rutgers
9. Nebraska
10. Ohio State
11. Maryland
12. Northwestern
13. Penn State
Ha! seems about right. And it seems to have little to do with how good those teams are in any given season.
 
#440      
BU would seem to agree that FR can contribute as Goode played a significant role in the MSU game. I don't think BU or any other coach is "committed to the upperclassmen" per se. They are committed to winning games and they will play the guys that give them the best chance of winning.

Coaches see these guys practice every day. They know what they can contribute. Obviously Goode has demonstrated in practice (and now in games) that he can contribute. And thus the coaches are giving him significant minutes in close games.
I would guess it has a lot to do with the extra-ordinary 5th year contributors than anything else, necessity is the mother of invention
 
#445      

pruman91

Paducah, Ky

Jeff Gordon
Kofi Cockburn is back, so Illini fans should rest easy. Illinois can press forward in its quest for a great NCAA Tournament seed.
The super-sized center returned after missing time with a concussion. He got right back to work by overpowering Northwestern Saturday with 22 points and nine rebounds in the 59-56 road victory.
The Wildcats held the Illini to 5-for-18 shooting from 3-point range, but they could not contain Cockburn in the paint. He scored seven of the final 17 Illinois points in the game.
“It was nice to have the horse back," Illinois coach Brad Underwood said.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

love this snippet in the misery section..................

Oh, and Boogie Coleman twice failed to advance the ball to the front court in the allotted 10 seconds. Such violations are rare beyond the YMCA/CYC level of play.
 
#447      

DeonThomas

South Carolina
Big Ten teams ranked by how well we usually play against them in the last 10-15 years:

1. Minnesota
2. Michigan State
3. Purdue
4. Indiana
5. Michigan
6. Iowa
7. Wisconsin
8. Rutgers
9. Nebraska
10. Ohio State
11. Maryland
12. Northwestern
13. Penn State
This ranking didn't mesh very well with my personal recollection --- probably because I have many, many more years of history now etched in my memory. So here's how we've fared against each of those teams ALL-TIME, by win %. I was expecting to see losing records against only Indiana and Purdue, but MSU has now overtaken us since Izzo arrived. And it looks like Maryland has always held the upper hand, even before joining the Big10.

1. 80% - Northwestern
2. 77% - Rutgers
3. 67% - Nebraska
4. 63% - Penn State
5. 62% - Minnesota
6. 58% - Wisconsin
7. 53% - Ohio State
8. 53% - Iowa
9. 51% - Michigan
10. 49% - Michigan State
11. 46% - Indiana
12. 45% - Purdue
13. 35% - Maryland
 
#448      

danielb927

Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
One reason Wednesday is a huge game from a B1G title perspective: Wisconsin has the easiest schedule of any team left in serious title contention, and we (arguably) have the hardest.

Here are the breakdowns of remaining games, broken in to KenPom's A/B/"C" tiers. These are similar to Quad 1, Quad 2, and Quad 3+4 in NCAA team sheets. It's not a perfect analysis, but sheds a little bit of light on strength of schedule. The main differentiator I can find is in the "C" tier games -- our only one is Penn St. at home, while the Badgers still get host Penn St., Rutgers, and Nebraska.

Our schedule is arguably harder than MSU's even though they have one more "A" tier game. Their easiest "A" games are @ Maryland and @ Penn State -- our easiest two are probably the home games against OSU and Iowa.

Instead of the arbitrary grouping, it would be nice to show this graphically, maybe a cluster chart of expected efficiency margin of opponent adjusted for location. Might have time for that before the game Wednesday.

Illinois (8-2)
A - 6
B - 3
C - 1

Wisconsin (8-2)
(@Illinois)
A - 4
B - 3
C - 3

Michigan St. (7-2)
(vs. Illinois)
A - 7 (pending reschedule @Michigan)
B - 3
C - 1

Purdue (7-3)
(vs. Illinois)
A - 5
B - 3
C - 2

Ohio St. (6-3)
(@Illinois)
A - 5
B - 3
C - 3 (pending reschedule vs. Nebraska)
 
#449      
Good analysis there are a lot of games left and there are no easy games in the league. Nebraska gave us MSU and OSU a very tough game
 
#450      

danielb927

Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
Update: here's a graphical version of the above. This is a box plot, so the individual dots are single games (think of the vertical axis as opponent strength adjusted for home/away -- higher is better) and the boxes/extensions show the quartiles of games. The X markers are the average of all games for each team.

My analysis above was close but note quite right. Wisconsin's is not too different from ours - we both have 3 pretty hard games, 3 middle of the road games, and 2 easier games. The difference is what's left over: for Wisconsin, a pretty hard game and the easiest possible game (vs. Nebraska); for us, another middle of the road game and the hardest possible game (@ Purdue).

Edit: Updated to re-order teams by mean strength of schedule remaining.

1643667370420.png


Notes: The vertical axis is average opponent efficiency margin, adjusted (manually) for location. Efficiency margin is points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions. To account for location, I used 3.75 points per game for home-court advantage and an average 67 possessions per game. This comes out to -5.6 in opponent efficiency margin for home games, +5.6 for away. In reality that advantage is split between both teams, but assigning the whole change to the opponent captures the net relative to the "base" team's strength more conveniently.
 

Attachments

  • 1643667167770.png
    1643667167770.png
    35.3 KB · Views: 110
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.