Illini Basketball 2023-2024

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#301      
I put charges in two categories. One is where a player is set at a spot not really playing defense, but stands and takes a charge. Plenty of respect for that, but agree with those who say that's not really great defense. It appears that's going to remain.

The other charge is the one that's tough to call which really comes from outstanding defense. You establish defensive position and maintain it as you and the offensive player move. That appears to be the one that's going to go away and that will be a travesty.
 
#302      
The defense in question
British Basketball GIF by Bristol Flyers

Are we talking about flopping? Or actually taking a charge? One is 100% defense. Not debatable.
 
#305      
I put charges in two categories. One is where a player is set at a spot not really playing defense, but stands and takes a charge. Plenty of respect for that, but agree with those who say that's not really great defense. It appears that's going to remain.

The other charge is the one that's tough to call which really comes from outstanding defense. You establish defensive position and maintain it as you and the offensive player move. That appears to be the one that's going to go away and that will be a travesty.

What?? How is it different? A defensive player takes a position...but is "not really playing defense"? Set at a spot like in a zone.....defense?

A charge is a charge. It is because the offensive player forces his way into a defender who has established position.

Taking a charge is defense. Period. End of debate. This is obnoxious. This is literally Clintons "define 'is'" argument.
 
#307      
What?? How is it different? A defensive player takes a position...but is "not really playing defense"? Set at a spot like in a zone.....defense?

A charge is a charge. It is because the offensive player forces his way into a defender who has established position.

Taking a charge is defense. Period. End of debate. This is obnoxious. This is literally Clintons "define 'is'" argument.
of course it's defense. But it's a much different skill to happen to be in a position that a guy you're not defending happens to run into and to on the other hand be defending step for step another guy.
 
#308      
The charge call is stupid, contest at the rim, don't just plant your feet and grab your nuts
 
#312      
The good news is that our best player is at his best hurling himself toward the rim. He's going to get to the line often.
He should, but gut feel is that even with the changes, refs won't be dramatically increasing the number of fouls they call in a game. Instead my guess is they'll opt for more no calls on aggressive drives to offset the change. Plus, historically, whenever the refs focus on a specific violation, they tend to let other violations slide a bit more. So guessing they'll allow more contact but the ratio of blocks to charges will shift
 
#313      

Not sure where to put this but what a DICKinson

Meh, after 3 years at UM, he's probably pysched to be on a team playing for a NC. And while I think it's bad juju to trash talk like that, it's kind of refreshing to see players honestly express themselves. Think we've had our share of players like that.
 
#314      
What?? How is it different? A defensive player takes a position...but is "not really playing defense"? Set at a spot like in a zone.....defense?

A charge is a charge. It is because the offensive player forces his way into a defender who has established position.

Taking a charge is defense. Period. End of debate. This is obnoxious. This is literally Clintons "define 'is'" argument.
Agreed. Flopping is neither taking a charge or defense. Flopping is like a catcher framing a pitch and pulling the glove over to try to fool the umpire into thinking the ball that was 3 inches outside was a strike. Hope this new rule does not change the balance of the game. Need Skyldub to teach the refs what "it is".
 
#315      
Ahh, the sweet sweet smell of a new season. We can finally put to bed all the projecting and prognosticating and come together to enjoy what we love....

(BU fart noise) Yeah right lol.

I'm thinking 24 wins total this year. I'm expecting a team that will be consistently tough to beat thanks to experience, toughness, defense, and rebounding. Things that travel well and are typical of BU teams (last year not withstanding).

What I'll be most curious to see and what I think will have the biggest impact on our ceiling, is not point guard play (gasp!). It's how well we shoot the ball. If we prove dangerous from three, we can really be a deep tournament team. Otherwise, we'll be a fringe top 25, first weekend exit team. High floor either way.

ILL
 
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#316      
22-9

better team than last year but tougher schedule
 
#317      
Based on what I have heard, 21-10 to 24-7 is about what we should expect this year. Team is going to be very good, just a tough schedule. Should be looking at a good seed and hopefully a S16
I see us being a little underseeded this year maybe a 5 or 6 but then playing spoiler 😈
 
#318      
Man idk. If you get to the spot, jump straight up and contest the shot without fouling. To me, that’s solid defense, not getting run over.
I agree with this and I think refs blow calls on guys going straight up as often as they do charges. I wish the NCAA would emphasize that rule as well. One of the reasons you get flops is because if a defender just stands there with his arms straight up and lets the ball handler crash into him, he gets called for a foul every time if he doesn’t hit the floor.

Anyway, 24-10 including the BTT and a four seed is where I’m at.
 
#319      
Man idk. If you get to the spot, jump straight up and contest the shot without fouling. To me, that’s solid defense, not getting run over.

This doesn't work because a very, very large percentage of charges / offensive player control fouls occur away from the basket & there's no shot attempt.
 
#320      
So I played around some more with Kenpom's projections to determine his B10 regular season champion odds. I should note there is some inherent error here in that the teams in my model are "in a vaccuum" such that I wouldn't have to create and run an engine to track the 2^140 B10 game outcome possibilities and tabulate that way. By my calculations, this will result in about an 8% total error at worst, so for example if it's listed that a team has a projected 15.0% chance of winning the B10, anywhere between 13.8% and 16.2% is encompassed by reasonable error. Anyways, to the fun:

Odds to win or share the B10 title this season, as calculated using kenpom:
Purdue- 65.9%
MSU- 21.6%
Wisconsin- 11.1%
Illinois- 10.2%
Maryland- 9.0%
OSU- 5.4%
Northwestern- 1.9%
Michigan- 1.0%
Indiana- 1.0%

As an aside, because someone may ask, those above numbers do not sum to 100, as shared titles account for multiple teams winning.

Odds to win the B10 title outright this season, as calculated using kenpom:
Purdue- 49.0%
MSU- 11.4%
Wisconsin- 5.1%
Illinois- 4.5%
Maryland- 3.9%
OSU- 2.1%

Now yes, this doesn't mean much, but it's fun to play around with.
 
#321      
So I played around some more with Kenpom's projections to determine his B10 regular season champion odds. I should note there is some inherent error here in that the teams in my model are "in a vaccuum" such that I wouldn't have to create and run an engine to track the 2^140 B10 game outcome possibilities and tabulate that way. By my calculations, this will result in about an 8% total error at worst, so for example if it's listed that a team has a projected 15.0% chance of winning the B10, anywhere between 13.8% and 16.2% is encompassed by reasonable error. Anyways, to the fun:

Odds to win or share the B10 title this season, as calculated using kenpom:
Purdue- 65.9%
MSU- 21.6%
Wisconsin- 11.1%
Illinois- 10.2%
Maryland- 9.0%
OSU- 5.4%
Northwestern- 1.9%
Michigan- 1.0%
Indiana- 1.0%

As an aside, because someone may ask, those above numbers do not sum to 100, as shared titles account for multiple teams winning.

Odds to win the B10 title outright this season, as calculated using kenpom:
Purdue- 49.0%
MSU- 11.4%
Wisconsin- 5.1%
Illinois- 4.5%
Maryland- 3.9%
OSU- 2.1%

Now yes, this doesn't mean much, but it's fun to play around with.
Nice breakdown. Very shocked by Wisconsin being that well liked by the computer as I just don't see them being close to top 30 offensive team this year when they finished 140 in offensive rating last year
 
#322      
#324      
I wouldn’t have minded nick irvin on this staff, say what you want about him but the guy can recruit and has connections to high level talent
 
#325      
Here’s a link to the NCAA rule change.


What have I missed here? It reads to me the same as it was. Could someone explain what happened to me like I am 5 years old?
Once upon a time there was a magical orb. If you had possession of this orb, your opponents could not touch you. You however could touch them. If one of the downtrodden wanted to stop you from claiming your hard earned rewards, all they could do was stand in front of you hoping you ran into them. It wasn't likely, but they still tried. For if you did run into them while they were standing straight and perfectly still, the orb magically became theirs. [You may be down on your luck and really need an orb some day, so this is why you must learn to sit up straight, without fidgeting during dinner.]

Now where were we. Oh yes. The obstacles. At first these stationary obstacles were but a minor nuisance and easily avoided. After all, how hard is it to avoid a stationary object? Then the economy went bad and people got desperate. They tried all sorts of things and eventually came upon one that caused great confusion. The desperate people started moving in front of the glorious orb carriers after they had leapt into the air to make their final delivery. Being in the air, the orb carriers had no way to avoid them. What a vile, dangerous, trick. Should the possession of the orb change when someone pulled such a stunt? Thankfully, the orb, being so precious, is always being watched by a set of Xebras. They somehow always knew exactly who should own the orb.

The great Scholars of Embarrassment (near Dustu on the Wahtn Sea) studied these Xebras and their decisions for decades trying to decide how the Xebras always knew. It led to the deep philosophical discussions such as: What constituted standing still? How long did they have to stand still before the impact to be deemed standing still? Was one ever standing perfectly straight? How much slouching or leaning was allowed? How could the observing Xebra, often on the move themselves, determine if another object was at rest? The last was termed the Xebras paradox. After many years, the scholars never found an answer. For any theory there were always many, many, counter examples.

In the book of Slo-mo Revelation, it came out that not only did the Xebras didn't always know, their errors were muddying the timeline. This caused great embarrassment. At first the almighty No Correcting Aristocratic Affiliates, progenitors of the Xebras, waited to see if their children could resolve the matter on their own. Eventually the timeline was so muddied that they stepped in. They proclaimed that the orb shall not change possession if the orb carrier had planted their foot in preparation for the final leap toward their rewards. Thus it became much clearer on how long the downtrodden needed to be standing, and that extra time made it easier to determine if they were standing straight. The timeline was saved; and the Scholars of Embarrassment were out of jobs; or so they thought. While on the surface it appears to create Xebras paradise, a new gremlin was birthed. What constitutes the planing of the foot?
 
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