I'm all for being an optimist when it calls for it, but I would argue you are not looking closely enough. Three of those wins are vs. Quad 3 teams, so we are 7-3 in games where we score 80+ against Tournament-level competition that we would be facing in the Second Round (I think most of us agree a First Round loss would be a MASSIVE disappointment, and even a Second Round loss would really leave a negative air about the program, fair or unfair). And these are those games in chronological order:
W 98-89 vs. #37 FAU (New York, NY)
W 96-66 vs. #53 Northwestern
W 88-73 at #120 Michigan
L 96-91 in OT at #53 Northwestern
W 87-75 at #66 Ohio State
W 87-84 in OT vs. #41 Nebraska
L 88-80 at #24 Michigan State
W 85-80 at #67 Maryland
L 90-89 at #96 Penn State
W 95-85 vs. #60 Iowa
Two things concern me here:
1. Of all those wins, the only ones that were not absolute heart attacks were vs. Northwestern and at Michigan. The first one happened way back on January 2nd, and the second is against a last place team that won't sniff the NCAA. I'll give us credit for winning, but again ... we were playing with fire. A win is a win is a win, but luck evens out. I don't want to be praying for a last second win in the Second Round while playing a team that is just simply less talented than we are. People can say I am being too harsh on them, but this team is simply too talented to be in a down-to-the-wire battle with everyone! That's asking for a fluke loss and an early exit.
2. The trend since the start of the year is concerning. If you look at the Big Ten results since the start of the year in that list of 10 games up there, the points we gave up in regulation goes like this:
66 vs. Northwestern
73 at Michigan
76 at Northwestern
75 at Ohio State
73 vs. Nebraska
80 at Michigan State
89 at Penn State
85 vs. Iowa
The stats are skewed by the Northwestern and Nebraska games being OT, but we are giving up a lot more points lately than we were before.