Illini Basketball 2023-2024

WyattEarp said:

As a coach/educator you have to first decide “what” you are going to teach. You have to consider your philosophy and what stuff is really the most useful/most important to cover/get through.. due to time constraints and all that. Then you have to teach it, review it and get them to execute it. At least one of the 3 isn’t happening.

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And there is one other very critical feature to teaching. You have to have students who want to learn... and will learn... and remember what they've learned... and then DO it.

We aren't seeing the practices and team meetings (except for 'The Insiders') so we don't know what goes on there. But there may be more blame on the players here than on the coach. Or 50-50, or something.

The old saying goes, 'Victory has a thousand fathers but defeat is an orphan'. Well it just might be that defeat has more than just one father, too.

There is a lack of something here -- we all see that. But it's just not clear who is dropping the ball (in more ways than one).

Roundball Sage said:

And there is one other very critical feature to teaching. You have to have students who want to learn... and will learn... and remember what they've learned... and then DO it.

We aren't seeing the practices and team meetings (except for 'The Insiders') so we don't know what goes on there. But there may be more blame on the players here than on the coach. Or 50-50, or something.

The old saying goes, 'Victory has a thousand fathers but defeat is an orphan'. Well it just might be that defeat has more than just one father, too.

There is a lack of something here -- we all see that. But it's just not clear who is dropping the ball (in more ways than one).

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That’s a fair point I suppose. Indeed: WHY:

1.) Coaches are expected to get the most out of their players. Better coaches consistently get more out of their players than lesser coaches. That’s just the way it is. It’s part of the gig. ( If that’s the way it starts going multiple years in a row…you might as well be a commentator or selling insurance. It is expected at all levels even the ones that have the LUXURY of recruiting …and the ones that don’t demand million$ and personal helicopters with private hella pads.

2. He hand picks these dudes. But not only that…We’ve heard all year how positive and connected these guys are…and I believe that? They WERE…We all saw it…what happened??Why have they quit playing for him again this year? Has Brad lost this group too?

WyattEarp said:

Coaches are expected to get the most out of their players. Better coaches consistently get more out of their players than lesser coaches... He hand picks these dudes.

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As a coach yourself, you can recognize this puzzle as the ‘human element’. We humans are just inherently and forever unpredictable.

You can’t always get a full read on a guy. You can’t motivate someone else beyond what they are willing to put into it. And we never can know how a person is ever going to react in a given situation... or certainly pressure situations in the heat of the game moment. Or even if he is going to be the same 'guy' from month to month as he grows and changes.

The best coaches do in fact get the most out of their players. But I think a lot of that is culture. There is just so much expectation to win championships at legacy places like Duke and Kansas and Carolina, etc. that the culture just conveys some kind of extra element or energy to the players you have. There is such a momentum of winning and the pressure of fan bases that feel entitled to always win championships that it just elevates people beyond what they may be elsewhere. You have to win OR ELSE.

Illini of course do now have a winning culture established again. But not at the highest level of the programs that are the legacy championship level in recent times.

And how do the Illini get to that level, too? I think we all know the answer to that.

We've talked plenty about which coach is running the defense, but which coaching is leading the FT shooting?

The shot doctor on our team has earned his pay, and is deserving a raise. We shot 68% on FTs as a team last year, and looked horrible in the early season again, but are now shooting 74% as a team. And if that is the same coach working with Coleman, double the bonus.

Hawkins has been a bad 3 pt shooter his entire career. Not good, not ok, bad. Somehow he's shooting almost 39% this year. He was a low 60s% FT shooter and no is 80%.

5 straight seasons of 20 wins or more. I refuse to take that for granted. Considering where we were in the 2010s, it's remarkable. There's still so much more we want and need to achieve, but man, we've come a long way.

78,58,54,53,63. That’s every point total we’ve scored in tournament games since 2021. 78 was against Drexel. We’ve only topped 60 once since then. Our offense is elite this year. I’m so ready for this team to get to the second weekend and possibly beyond-if we can sharpen the defense.

The Galloping Ghost said:

5 straight seasons of 20 wins or more. I refuse to take that for granted. Considering where we were in the 2010s, it's remarkable. There's still so much more we want and need to achieve, but man, we've come a long way.

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Same here. Every year that we're not on the bubble and are in safely, it removes another year where we were on the tightrope and snuck in or got left out. We have a long way to go to remove my PTSD.

‘98-‘05 there were 5 big 10 regular season championships and 4 times made it past the second round. Not sure which one I care about more, but while recently competitive and successful, haven’t been able to match or really come close to that previous stretch.

This season’s worst loss (and 3 of last year’s) was that Penn state game. Win that then they control their own destiny for big 10 championship . Now basically have to win out including beating Purdue, and hope Purdue loses one additional game.

If no conference title, anything less than the sweet 16, for me, would make this season an overall disappointment.

SoCal Illini said:

‘98-‘05 there were 5 big 10 regular season championships and 4 times made it past the second round. Not sure which one I care about more, but while recently competitive and successful, haven’t been able to match or really come close to that previous stretch.

This season’s worst loss (and 3 of last year’s) was that Penn state game. Win that then they control their own destiny for big 10 championship . Now basically have to win out including beating Purdue, and hope Purdue loses one additional game.

If no conference title, anything less than the sweet 16, for me, would make this season an overall disappointment.

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Conference titles are awesome. Since we have both a regular season and a BTT banner in the last few seasons, I fail to see how almost every Illini fan wouldn’t take a second weekend appearance right now. It is literally the only thing people bash us for.

Iloveorangekoolaid said:

78,58,54,53,63. That’s every point total we’ve scored in tournament games since 2021. 78 was against Drexel. We’ve only topped 60 once since then. Our offense is elite this year. I’m so ready for this team to get to the second weekend and possibly beyond-if we can sharpen the defense.

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The defense is obviously the big concern. I think BU needs to make more significant changes- I still don’t know why we never hedge screens anymore at the top of the key, we used to in previous seasons under BU and we were good defensively.

Always going over the screen and having the man guarding the screener play the drop coverage just isn’t working and forces our player to work hard getting over a screen just to see the guy turn the corner and get downhill with the drop defender being very ineffective all year. Frequently it’s Hawkins who just doesn’t want to challenge shots anymore

We really need to figure this out - we have a positionless/flexible enough defense that hedging and forcing the man with the ball to go around the hedge and give the defender time to recover seems to be a way to counter letting the ball get easy driving lanes time after time- our at the rim defense is abysmal so don’t let them get to the rim

Emerson Bigguns said:

Teams playing well at the end of the season tend to play well in the tournaments. I tend to think the degree to which the B1G refs allow contact is what works against the league, but not necessarily because players get worn down.

Good players do what they are used to doing and suddenly get called for fouls & watch long stretches of tournament games from the bench.

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Truth!

BashCtIllini said:

We've talked plenty about which coach is running the defense, but which coaching is leading the FT shooting?

The shot doctor on our team has earned his pay, and is deserving a raise. We shot 68% on FTs as a team last year, and looked horrible in the early season again, but are now shooting 74% as a team. And if that is the same coach working with Coleman, double the bonus.

Hawkins has been a bad 3 pt shooter his entire career. Not good, not ok, bad. Somehow he's shooting almost 39% this year. He was a low 60s% FT shooter and no is 80%.

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Where are the guys now that were saying that Hawkins shouldn't be shooting 3's? I seem to remember a bunch of people that were saying that he should never shoot 3's. Perhaps, his improvement isn't because his shot has been magically fixed by some shot doctor? Perhaps, he is shooting at a higher percentage because he is taking more catch and shoot 3's in rhythm, rather than all the forced shots of previous years? He has always been a better shooter than his "in game" numbers portrayed. IMHO, Coleman's breakout offensive improvement has been due to better mental discipline (PSU game excluded), actually taking more open looks from outside, and shooting with confidence.

NCIllini10 said:

Where are the guys now that were saying that Hawkins shouldn't be shooting 3's? I seem to remember a bunch of people that were saying that he should never shoot 3's. Perhaps, his improvement isn't because his shot has been magically fixed by some shot doctor? Perhaps, he is shooting at a higher percentage because he is taking more catch and shoot 3's in rhythm, rather than all the forced shots of previous years? He has always been a better shooter than his "in game" numbers portrayed. IMHO, Coleman's breakout offensive improvement has been due to better mental discipline (PSU game excluded), actually taking more open looks from outside, and shooting with confidence.

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Perhaps but his shot is definitely much improved too. Less flat

BWA said:

Perhaps but his shot is definitely much improved too. Less flat

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Perhaps he has tweeaked his shot a bit and it is a factor in his improvement. However, I watched him pre-game several times last year rarely miss a shot from outside. You can't do that if you aren't already a good shooter. But, I stipulate that his numbers have not been good before this year. So, whatever is causing his improvement, I am for it. I am just saying that there has not been any "magic" done that has transformed a guy who couldn't shoot from 3 into a 40% 3 point shooter.

NCIllini10 said:

Where are the guys now that were saying that Hawkins shouldn't be shooting 3's? I seem to remember a bunch of people that were saying that he should never shoot 3's. Perhaps, his improvement isn't because his shot has been magically fixed by some shot doctor? Perhaps, he is shooting at a higher percentage because he is taking more catch and shoot 3's in rhythm, rather than all the forced shots of previous years? He has always been a better shooter than his "in game" numbers portrayed. IMHO, Coleman's breakout offensive improvement has been due to better mental discipline (PSU game excluded), actually taking more open looks from outside, and shooting with confidence.

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I was one of them, and I was 100% correct. Someone who was shooting 28% on 210 attempts has no business taking 210 shots in the first place, let alone any more. He had plenty of good looks, he just wasn't a good shooter, as evidenced by his 63% FT shooting.

But something has changed this year, dramatically. He's now at almost 40% from 3 on 116 attempts, and over 80% on FT. So again to my question, who is responsible for this massive turnaround? Obviously Coleman had to put in a lot of work personally, but someone had to help him too.

I for one thought it was a joke that people were talking about Hawkins going to the NBA last year. He wasn't even close in my opinion. But after this season, as long as things continue at this pace, I think he actually has a shot now. 2nd rounder, but NBA nonetheless.

BashCtIllini said:

I was one of them, and I was 100% correct. Someone who was shooting 28% on 210 attempts has no business taking 210 shots in the first place, let alone any more. He had plenty of good looks, he just wasn't a good shooter, as evidenced by his 63% FT shooting.

But something has changed this year, dramatically. He's now at almost 40% from 3 on 116 attempts, and over 80% on FT. So again to my question, who is responsible for this massive turnaround? Obviously Coleman had to put in a lot of work personally, but someone had to help him too.

I for one thought it was a joke that people were talking about Hawkins going to the NBA last year. He wasn't even close in my opinion. But after this season, as long as things continue at this pace, I think he actually has a shot now. 2nd rounder, but NBA nonetheless.

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I'll stand up here too. Could have written this post word-for-word.

Preseason I said something like "Coleman is who he is, those numbers will not change". Very happy to be wrong.

NCIllini10 said:

Where are the guys now that were saying that Hawkins shouldn't be shooting 3's? I seem to remember a bunch of people that were saying that he should never shoot 3's. Perhaps, his improvement isn't because his shot has been magically fixed by some shot doctor? Perhaps, he is shooting at a higher percentage because he is taking more catch and shoot 3's in rhythm, rather than all the forced shots of previous years? He has always been a better shooter than his "in game" numbers portrayed. IMHO, Coleman's breakout offensive improvement has been due to better mental discipline (PSU game excluded), actually taking more open looks from outside, and shooting with confidence.

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It's much more simple.... The pump fakes are gone and have turned into immediate shots or passes.

CoalCity said:

He doesnt have to call him, he attends games. And the fastest way to get a high achiever to turn into a middling achiever is try to tell him the nuts and bolts of how to do his job. Give them goals, give them deadlines, give them the tools they need, but don't tell them how to do their jobs.

If they fail, it's your option to retain them and mentor their improvement or get rid of them and start over.

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Yeah, Whitman is obviously at the games, but as Brad is walking down the tunnel at halftime is probably not the best moment to say, "Hey, what's going on with the defense". So maybe he WOULD call the next day. Anyway, that's beside the point...

I agree with you, I'm not saying he needs to micromanage him; just a little constructive criticism. If I'm really good at my job, but there are a couple things I could do a little different to make the results even better, I don't expect my boss to tell me HOW to do it, but that's his job to at least bring those things up and bring the best out of me. Doesn't have to be a sit down come to Jesus talk. Same thing here..."mentor his improvement" as you said. That's all I'm really wondering...like legit curious if Whitman would do that in our current state of defensive ineptitude or whatever, or would it have to get a little worse first. Like I mentioned in my initial post, we've been hovering around the same rankings for quite awhile now so I wouldn't necessarily expect it. Then again, those couple little fixes could've been all that was needed to keep us consistently in the top 10.

Based on KP data as of Feb. 27:

Stellar Offense: 124.0 KP AdjO (#4 in nation; #1 out of the last 26 Illini teams 1999-2024)

• Illini's current AdjO is higher than 21 of the last 24 NCAA champions and well above the 1999-23 NCAA champ ave. of 120.47.
• 3 of the top 7 single game AdjO performances by UI in B10 games since 1999 have been in the last two months.

Leaky Defense: 100.6 KP AdjD (#61 in nation; 23rd out of the last 26 Illini teams)

• AdjD was in a very solid 91.3 to 93.1 range in November-December 2023, but has plummeted in Jan. and Feb 2024 (without and with TSJ) and reached 100+ in late Feb.
• Illini's current AdjD is far worse than the average (89.71) and bottom end of the range (94.0) for NCAA champs since 1999.
• 3 of the 9 worst single game defensive performances (in terms of most points allowed) by UI in B10 games since 1999 have been in the last two months.

Defensive shortcomings need to be fixed or at least triaged in the next couple of weeks, but time is getting away from us.

If it can’t, this team risks the same fate as Brad’s 2017 OSU team (scored 91 but gave up 92 in a first round loss to Michigan in the tournament), a historically great offensive team (#1 AdjO in nation that year and in top 10 of all teams since 1999) that was even leakier than this Illini team defensively. Hopefully this team will dig in defensively and avoid a similar first weekend fate….

BashCtIllini said:

I was one of them, and I was 100% correct. Someone who was shooting 28% on 210 attempts has no business taking 210 shots in the first place, let alone any more. He had plenty of good looks, he just wasn't a good shooter, as evidenced by his 63% FT shooting.

But something has changed this year, dramatically. He's now at almost 40% from 3 on 116 attempts, and over 80% on FT. So again to my question, who is responsible for this massive turnaround? Obviously Coleman had to put in a lot of work personally, but someone had to help him too.

I for one thought it was a joke that people were talking about Hawkins going to the NBA last year. He wasn't even close in my opinion. But after this season, as long as things continue at this pace, I think he actually has a shot now. 2nd rounder, but NBA nonetheless.

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I honestly believe what has changed is his mindset.... He doesn't hesitate when he is open now.. Last two years he stood there think about it to long instead of just letting er rip,,, I still question his range at times he is just to far out, but his stroke is much better looking as is the arch on his shots..

With the stat about Underwood winning 20 games for the fifth straight year, I wanted to look back at 20-win seasons by Big Ten school in the "modern era." For simplicity's sake, I used 1980 ... nice even cutoff for the beginning of a decade that brought us the expanded NCAA Tournament and the 3-point shot, as well as a timeframe that gives us 45 seasons.

Also for fun in parentheses, I included the number by decade (1980s - 1990s - 2000s - etc.). Enjoy!

ILLINOIS: 32 (9 - 4 - 9 - 5 - 5)
Purdue: 29 (8 - 6 - 4 - 8 - 3)
Ohio State: 29 (6 - 3 - 8 - 9 - 3)
Michigan State: 27 (1 - 6 - 8 - 9 - 3)
Indiana: 27 (7 - 7 - 6 - 4 - 3)
Iowa: 27 (9 - 7 - 3 - 5 - 3)
Michigan: 27 (6 - 8 - 4 - 8 - 1)
Maryland: 24 (5 - 4 - 7 - 6 - 2)
Wisconsin: 20 (0 - 1 - 7 - 9 - 3)
Minnesota: 16 (2 - 5 - 3 - 6 - 0)
Nebraska: 11 (2 - 6 - 1 - 1 - 1)
Penn State: 10 (1 - 5 - 2 - 2)
Northwestern: 5 (0 - 0 - 0 - 4 - 1)
Rutgers: 4 (2 - 0 - 1 - 0 - 1)

Future Big Ten members:

UCLA: 33 (7 - 10 - 7 - 6 - 3)
Oregon: 17 (0 - 0 - 4 - 9 - 4)
USC: 13 (0 - 1 - 5 - 3 - 4)
Washington: 12 (3 - 1 - 3 - 5 - 0)

Some notes:
1. It is important to note that winning 20 games in the 1980s was significantly more impressive than winning 20 games now, with the addition of more games and specifically the BTT.

2. Go Illini! Pretty impressive that out of all of these teams, only Blue Blood UCLA has us beat by one season. And that was after we went through a practically unimaginably bad (for us) stretch in the late Weber and Groce years.

3. On that note, Illinois is the only program that is 5/5 in the current decade. The next closest is 3.

4. UCLA in the 1990s is the only stretch of 10/10 seasons with 20 or more wins. The only stretches of 9 are...
- 1980s Illinois
- 1980s Iowa
- 2000s Illinois
- 2010s Michigan State
- 2010s Ohio State
- 2010s Wisconsin

5. The ebb and flow of some programs is crazy. Wisconsin went from Northwestern-level in the 1980s and 1990s to near the top of the league after 2000. Conversely, it's easy to see why older fans respect the tradition of Iowa basketball a bit more while younger fans do not.

6. I literally cannot think of a more overrated and falsely entitled program than Maryland. They have a fine history, but in E-V-E-R-Y stat, they fall in the middle of the pack like this. Every single one. If their fans want to believe they are superior to an Illinois because they had a generational team win it all in 2002 while we had injuries in 1989 and Luther Head missed a three-pointer in 2005 ... uh, okay. I am jealous of the trophy, but it boggles my mind people talk about Maryland as this traditional basketball power. They're Iowa with a crazy 2-year run.

So according to Sports Reference, we score almost 84 PPG (13th in the nation) and give up 72 PPG (187th in the nation). I thought it would be an interesting way to divide up our games vs. "major" opponents by whether or not we score 80+, whether or not our opponent scores 80+ and then the other two combinations. I am also using the current NET Rankings.

Illini Score 80+, Opponent Scores Less Than 80 ... Illini 6-0
W 97-73 vs. #150 Missouri in St. Louis, MO (Quad 3)
W 96-66 vs. #53 Northwestern (Quad 2)
W 88-73 at #120 Michigan (Quad 2)
W 88-63 vs. #98 Rutgers (Quad 3)
W 87-75 at #66 Ohio State (Quad 1)
W 97-68 vs. #120 Michigan (Quad 3)

Both Teams Score 80+ ... Illini 4-3
W 98-89 vs. #37 FAU in New York, NY (Quad 1)
L 96-91 in OT at #53 Northwestern (Quad 1)
W 87-84 in OT vs. #41 Nebraska (Quad 2)
L 88-80 at #24 Michigan State (Quad 1)
W 85-80 at #67 Maryland (Quad 1)
L 90-89 at #96 Penn State (Quad 2)
W 95-85 vs. #60 Iowa (Quad 2)

Both Teams Score Less Than 80 ... Illini 3-2
L 71-64 vs. #12 Marquette (Quad 1)
W 76-58 at #98 Rutgers (Quad 2)
W 71-68 vs. #24 Michigan State (Quad 1)
L 76-67 vs. #67 Maryland (Quad 2)
W 70-62 vs. #108 Indiana (Quad 3)

Opponent Scores 80+, Illini Score Less than 80 ... Illini 0-2
L 86-79 at #5 Tennessee (Quad 1)
L 83-78 at #2 Purdue (Quad 1)

So, we are...
6-0 when we score 80+ and our opponent does not.
4-3 when we score 80+ but we also give up 80+.
3-2 when we don't score 80+ but we also give up less than 80.
0-2 when we don't score 80+ but our opponent does.

Looking at it this way is very frustrating ... of course you expect the two extremes to be lopsided records. However, I think this just illustrates that regardless of how good our offense is, we are just absolutely playing with fire in those 7 games where we are in a shootout. There is not one game of those 7 where both teams score 80+ that we were not INCREDIBLY nervous in the final minutes ... why risk your Tournament life in such a battle?! If this team goes anywhere in March, it will NOT because we are just raining threes on our opponent (which we aren't even that good at...) ... it will be because the defense really comes together.

QCUIGrad0512 said:

Yeah, Whitman is obviously at the games, but as Brad is walking down the tunnel at halftime is probably not the best moment to say, "Hey, what's going on with the defense". So maybe he WOULD call the next day. Anyway, that's beside the point...

I agree with you, I'm not saying he needs to micromanage him; just a little constructive criticism. If I'm really good at my job, but there are a couple things I could do a little different to make the results even better, I don't expect my boss to tell me HOW to do it, but that's his job to at least bring those things up and bring the best out of me. Doesn't have to be a sit down come to Jesus talk. Same thing here..."mentor his improvement" as you said. That's all I'm really wondering...like legit curious if Whitman would do that in our current state of defensive ineptitude or whatever, or would it have to get a little worse first. Like I mentioned in my initial post, we've been hovering around the same rankings for quite awhile now so I wouldn't necessarily expect it. Then again, those couple little fixes could've been all that was needed to keep us consistently in the top 10.

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Well-reasoned.

I don't the know the answer, of course, but I suspect Whitman would not in this BASKETBALL situation follow the path that a supervisor at another kind of workplace (e.g., a business or engineering firm) would because Underwood is the basketball expert. Whitman is his boss but is a football guy by background. I am not sure, during the season, that an AD in Whitman's situation would think it was a good idea to even discuss basketball stuff and team psychology. Maybe, especially the psychology part.

After the season, I imagine the AD would ask about everything. I'm only guessing, of course.

john1952 said:

Steve Bardon make a interesting observation the other day, that the Big Ten Conference really does not have a "bottom" this year.
For example we have been beaten by teams who are currently in 9th and 12th place. Michigan State just taken down by the team in 13th place
People often ask how can Maryland have no many losses, how can Iowa have so many loses, as another poster suggested "every game is a rock fight."

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I beg your Pardon?