Illini Basketball 2025-2026

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#178      
I think we win 7 out of our next 8…

(*ducks as the crowd boos and throws tomatoes*)

Oooooh so close...

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#179      
Does anyone have your MO tickets? I am still waiting for mine. Getting concerned with only a week to go.
 
#181      
Just for s&g's here is our record and T-Rank on December 15th of each of the last 6 years along with our final T-Rank.

Year | Record | 12.15 T-Rank | Final T-Rank

2026 | 8-3 | 13
2025 | 7-3 | 09 | 15
2024 | 7-2 | 26 | 13
2023 | 7-3 | 30 | 50
2022 | 7-3 | 20 | 20
2021 | 5-2 | 11 | 04
2020 | 7-3 | 57 | 29

No insights to glean besides that we always have two or three losses this time of year.

Three of the six years, we improved from where we were on 12 / 15. Below is when each of those teams bottomed out and began their upward trajectory. I.e. jelled, turned a corner, etc.

2024: 11/19
A 7 point loss at home to Marquette followed by a 23 point win vs Valpo (that the analytics didn't like) brought us down to 43rd for our game vs Southern. In less than two months, we would go from 43rd to 9th.

2021: 1/19
We actually "bottomed out" in the rankings in the preseason, starting at #17. After our first game, we would hover between 14 and 3 all year. But our game against OSU on 1/16 would send us to 14th for the last time. The next game vs PSU started a steady rise to 3rd at the time of the Loyola game.

2020: 1/05
We started the season ranked #16 but after losses to Arizona, Miami, Maryland, Missouri, and MSU we fell all the way to 47th before we annihilated Purdue on 1/05 to spark a 6 game B1G winning streak. We'd peak at 21 vs Maryland on 2/07 and end the COVID-shortened year ranked 29.
 
#182      
Saw this elsewhere and found it sort of interesting.

Using KP adj efficiency, left to right is 10 year average ranking (right is better). Top to bottom is current ranking (higher is better). Gray diagonal across center of chart means current year in line with 10 year average.

Teams above line are overperforming vs historical average. Teams shown are top 30 teams in either dataset.



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#183      
Saw this elsewhere and found it sort of interesting.

Using KP adj efficiency, left to right is 10 year average ranking (right is better). Top to bottom is current ranking (higher is better). Gray diagonal across center of chart means current year in line with 10 year average.

Teams above line are overperforming vs historical average. Teams shown are top 30 teams in either dataset.



View attachment 45719
But WAIT! Nebby just CAN"T be good ever!

/s for those who need it
 
#185      
I think a reasonable take right now is that (A) Nebraska is a very good basketball team, and (B) they are not SO good that we should not have defeated them on our home floor.

I think "Nebraska is not good enough to win a road game vs Illinois" would be a very questionable take tho... they seem to be a top 15 team metrics-wise (and we'll see where they're ranked today)
 
#187      
We need to start evaluating this from a financial perspective. Underwood is currently the 14th highest-paid coach, and his NIL budget ranks in the top 15 nationally. Are we seeing a return that matches those resources? Are consistent 4–6 seeds and early tournament exits justifiable given the investment?

For those saying, “Do you want Groce or Weber back?”—are we really that afraid of a coaching search? We have top-tier financial resources and an NIL budget that could attract most guys look for a rasie. Look at recent hires: Louisville brought in Pat Kelsey from College of Charleston, Dusty May came from FAU, and Dan Hurley was at Rhode Island before winning big. There are excellent coaches out there, and we have the means to entice them. This isn’t about firing Brad today—though personally, I believe we’ve hit our ceiling with him. It’s about recognizing that the status quo is no longer acceptable. With the level of resources we have, settling for mid-level seeds and early exits year after year simply isn’t good enough.
 
#188      
We need to start evaluating this from a financial perspective. Underwood is currently the 14th highest-paid coach, and his NIL budget ranks in the top 15 nationally. Are we seeing a return that matches those resources? Are consistent 4–6 seeds and early tournament exits justifiable given the investment?

For those saying, “Do you want Groce or Weber back?”—are we really that afraid of a coaching search? We have top-tier financial resources and an NIL budget that could attract most guys look for a rasie. Look at recent hires: Louisville brought in Pat Kelsey from College of Charleston, Dusty May came from FAU, and Dan Hurley was at Rhode Island before winning big. There are excellent coaches out there, and we have the means to entice them. This isn’t about firing Brad today—though personally, I believe we’ve hit our ceiling with him. It’s about recognizing that the status quo is no longer acceptable. With the level of resources we have, settling for mid-level seeds and early exits year after year simply isn’t good enough.
I agree that the "Do you want Groce or Weber back?" mentality is quite weak and flawed. It's a false choice to frame BU as the only logical option.

But, yes, we have been a top 10 to 15 program this decade under BU. I won't rehash all the ways we rank in the top 15 but there are several, including being one of only like 6 to 8 programs to go to the tournament (including the projected field in 2020) every year this decade.

I think people expect that top 15 program means you're finishing in the top 15 and going to the Sweet 16 every year. That's not how it works.

The best way I can think to put it is, if I asked you who you thought the #1 program was of the 2020s, you'd probably say something like UConn, Gonzaga, Houston, Duke, etc. But you don't require that team to win the Natty every year in order to be the best program, right? They just finish consistently toward the top.

It's the same with us. There aren't 15 programs who have finished as consistently high as we have since 2020.
 
#189      
IMO

Underwood will regularly have team ranked in TOP25.
Team will be good but not great. Some amazing wins and hair pulling out losses
Underwood will regularly be outcoached against good coaches / teams - might still win the game
Illinois essentially will win games (home and road) against lower ranked teams
Illinois will lose (home and road) to better teams
There is something about Underwoods inability to advance to S16
There is something about NOT making SFC/Assembly Hall a home court advantage
Underwood teams seem to do better with longer prep and don't fare as well with shorter prep

All of that to say changing my expectations for this year and generally in the future
24-10 (ish)
13-7 in conference
6-7 seed
Not make it to 2nd weekend.
 
#190      
They can, they are, and I will generally root for that long-suffering fan base to finally have some success.

But in no world should this team we have lost at home to Nebraska. We have too much talent up and down the roster. We are underperforming our roster.
Guys, it's one game, against a good team, decided on a contested buzzer beater. The best Illini team I've seen with my own eyes lost a buzzer beater game to a team that went .500 in conference play. These things happen. I think reading too much into one bad performance, even if it happens in the Tournament, is an unhelpful way to judge a team, coach, or program. I think doing that in an early season game when we really don't even know what this team is or will become is even less useful.

We need to start evaluating this from a financial perspective. Underwood is currently the 14th highest-paid coach,
Well yes, actually I'd say over his tenure, particularly over the stretch beginning with the COVID year, he has been one of the 14 best coaches in college basketball. Can you name 14 guys who have been better?

Also this list, the most recent I've been able to find, puts BU at #20 as far as pay. https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nca...e-basketball-coaches/c49e323e4387ec53d2f68632

and his NIL budget ranks in the top 15 nationally. Are we seeing a return that matches those resources?
Source? People keep saying stuff like this, and nobody ever says where this info comes from. This almost certainly is not true.

Are consistent 4–6 seeds and early tournament exits justifiable given the investment?
We got to the Elite 8 two seasons ago. The season before last season. So recently that Adam Miller has only changed teams once in that time span.
 
#192      
I agree that the "Do you want Groce or Weber back?" mentality is quite weak and flawed. It's a false choice to frame BU as the only logical option.

But, yes, we have been a top 10 to 15 program this decade under BU. I won't rehash all the ways we rank in the top 15 but there are several, including being one of only like 6 to 8 programs to go to the tournament (including the projected field in 2020) every year this decade.

I think people expect that top 15 program means you're finishing in the top 15 and going to the Sweet 16 every year. That's not how it works.

The best way I can think to put it is, if I asked you who you thought the #1 program was of the 2020s, you'd probably say something like UConn, Gonzaga, Houston, Duke, etc. But you don't require that team to win the Natty every year in order to be the best program, right? They just finish consistently toward the top.

It's the same with us. There aren't 15 programs who have finished as consistently high as we have since 2020.
I would just disagree with that because the furthest we have gone is the elite 8 one time. Regular season wins just don't matter. Without looking it up, who has the most college football wins since 2010? I think to be a top 10-15 team you have to have some level of success in March, along with the other stuff.
 
#193      
I would just disagree with that because the furthest we have gone is the elite 8 one time. Regular season wins just don't matter. Without looking it up, who has the most college football wins since 2010? I think to be a top 10-15 team you have to have some level of success in March, along with the other stuff.

1. Regular season wins DO matter.. its how you get to the tournament and determines your seed.. if regular season wins don't matter then nobody should lift a finger to type any complaints about the Nebraska game (or any other game this season)

2. We went to an E8 the year before last... that is "some level of success" is it not?
 
#194      
Guys, it's one game, against a good team, decided on a contested buzzer beater. The best Illini team I've seen with my own eyes lost a buzzer beater game to a team that went .500 in conference play. These things happen. I think reading too much into one bad performance, even if it happens in the Tournament, is an unhelpful way to judge a team, coach, or program. I think doing that in an early season game when we really don't even know what this team is or will become is even less useful.


Well yes, actually I'd say over his tenure, particularly over the stretch beginning with the COVID year, he has been one of the 14 best coaches in college basketball. Can you name 14 guys who have been better?

Also this list, the most recent I've been able to find, puts BU at #20 as far as pay. https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nca...e-basketball-coaches/c49e323e4387ec53d2f68632


Source? People keep saying stuff like this, and nobody ever says where this info comes from. This almost certainly is not true.


We got to the Elite 8 two seasons ago. The season before last season. So recently that Adam Miller has only changed teams once in that time span.
He is 14th - source: https://sportsdata.usatoday.com/ncaa/salaries/mens-basketball/coach

Well yes, actually I'd say over his tenure, particularly over the stretch beginning with the COVID year, he has been one of the 14 best coaches in college basketball. Can you name 14 guys who have been better? - self, hurley, Sampson, may, Izzo, painter, beard, Cronin, oats, Llyod, Pitino, golden, few, drew, scheyer, cal, barnes, McDermott, Kelsy. Thats 19. If you wanna argue a few here or there i wont stop you. But every list has some combo of those guys above brad. (https://www.cbssports.com/college-b...y-holds-off-houstons-kelvin-sampson-for-no-1/)

High Revenue & Valuation: In 2025, Illinois was listed with a $33.2M revenue and a $232M enterprise value, marking it as one of the most valuable basketball programs in the country. How would we not have money? Also you can look up any NIL eval website and it shows Illinois Hoops in the top 20.

And is one elite 8 good enough for you? It can be. Just not for a lot of us
 
#195      
Guys, it's one game, against a good team, decided on a contested buzzer beater. The best Illini team I've seen with my own eyes lost a buzzer beater game to a team that went .500 in conference play. These things happen. I think reading too much into one bad performance, even if it happens in the Tournament, is an unhelpful way to judge a team, coach, or program. I think doing that in an early season game when we really don't even know what this team is or will become is even less useful.


Well yes, actually I'd say over his tenure, particularly over the stretch beginning with the COVID year, he has been one of the 14 best coaches in college basketball. Can you name 14 guys who have been better?

Also this list, the most recent I've been able to find, puts BU at #20 as far as pay. https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nca...e-basketball-coaches/c49e323e4387ec53d2f68632


Source? People keep saying stuff like this, and nobody ever says where this info comes from. This almost certainly is not true.


We got to the Elite 8 two seasons ago. The season before last season. So recently that Adam Miller has only changed teams once in that time span.
Really want to nitpick that opening paragraph, but you earned a gold star for that closing line. Legit LOL.
 
#196      
I would just disagree with that because the furthest we have gone is the elite 8 one time. Regular season wins just don't matter. Without looking it up, who has the most college football wins since 2010? I think to be a top 10-15 team you have to have some level of success in March, along with the other stuff.
Would you care to name the 15 other programs you'd put in front of us? The 15 teams who go to the tournament every year and consistently make the 2nd weekend?
 
#197      
Guys, it's one game, against a good team, decided on a contested buzzer beater. The best Illini team I've seen with my own eyes lost a buzzer beater game to a team that went .500 in conference play. These things happen. I think reading too much into one bad performance, even if it happens in the Tournament, is an unhelpful way to judge a team, coach, or program. I think doing that in an early season game when we really don't even know what this team is or will become is even less useful.


Well yes, actually I'd say over his tenure, particularly over the stretch beginning with the COVID year, he has been one of the 14 best coaches in college basketball. Can you name 14 guys who have been better?

Also this list, the most recent I've been able to find, puts BU at #20 as far as pay. https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nca...e-basketball-coaches/c49e323e4387ec53d2f68632


Source? People keep saying stuff like this, and nobody ever says where this info comes from. This almost certainly is not true.


We got to the Elite 8 two seasons ago. The season before last season. So recently that Adam Miller has only changed teams once in that time span.
I think that article misinterpreted his pay due to how his contract is structured. He got an extension to his contract, the first year of that contract he earned $4.4M. The article interprets that first year statement as being the first year since he signed the extension, meaning the article thinks he got a pay cut to take an extension.

This statement makes even less sense when Brad was already under contract for several more years and the extension is adding years later down the line, so it wouldn't have any impact on his salary this year.
 
#198      
We need to start evaluating this from a financial perspective. Underwood is currently the 14th highest-paid coach, and his NIL budget ranks in the top 15 nationally. Are we seeing a return that matches those resources? Are consistent 4–6 seeds and early tournament exits justifiable given the investment?

For those saying, “Do you want Groce or Weber back?”—are we really that afraid of a coaching search? We have top-tier financial resources and an NIL budget that could attract most guys look for a rasie. Look at recent hires: Louisville brought in Pat Kelsey from College of Charleston, Dusty May came from FAU, and Dan Hurley was at Rhode Island before winning big. There are excellent coaches out there, and we have the means to entice them. This isn’t about firing Brad today—though personally, I believe we’ve hit our ceiling with him. It’s about recognizing that the status quo is no longer acceptable. With the level of resources we have, settling for mid-level seeds and early exits year after year simply isn’t good enough.
That Groce or Weber argument just drives me absolutely batsh!! crazy. Some of those people were using similar logic to want to keep Bruce around when his time had clearly run it's course. Illinois has the resources to be a consistent player on the national scene with demonstrable March success. One sweet 16 in 9 years isn't getting that job done IMO. Even if we pass his first 3 years cause he inherited a dumpster fire, 1 sweet 16 in 5 years is marginally passable.

After what we saw Saturday does not most everyone figure if a Hoiberg had the Illini roster he would outperform what Brad is doing/has done in prior years. I have no doubt.
 
#200      
That Groce or Weber argument just drives me absolutely batsh!! crazy. Some of those people were using similar logic to want to keep Bruce around when his time had clearly run it's course. Illinois has the resources to be a consistent player on the national scene with demonstrable March success. One sweet 16 in 9 years isn't getting that job done IMO. Even if we pass his first 3 years cause he inherited a dumpster fire, 1 sweet 16 in 5 years is marginally passable.

After what we saw Saturday does not most everyone figure if a Hoiberg had the Illini roster he would outperform what Brad is doing/has done in prior years. I have no doubt.

Face Wtf GIF by PFINNEY
 
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