Illini Basketball 2025-2026

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#276      
IlliniFan42
21ChampaignSt said:
3 second weekends per decade is a good benchmark for our program. I actually don't think 4 is unreasonable.

Slush fund scandal nuked the program in the 70s.

Then we recovered and went to four second weekends in the 80s.

Then the Pearl sanctions nuked the program in the 90s.

Then we went to four second weekends in the 2000s.

Then Weber, Groce, and Mike Thomas nuked the program in the 2010s.

Now, here we are. Stable again at last. Our history suggests that we should be able to get to four second weekends this decade. COVID took away 2020 so, three second weekends in reasonable.

Anyone who thinks that is an unreasonable expectation has a super pessimistic opinion of this program.
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The tournament still had bye games for half the 80s. Two of those second weekend trips, the Illini took advantage of that.

For me, the expectation for the program is two second weekends a decade. Maybe that's why I don't see the sky falling when we're headed for another first weekend exit. That's who Brad is and that's what the program is. If the program did not think that was the standard, they don't put the provision into Brad's contract that just making the tournament automatically adds another year to his tenure.
 
#277      
Illini in Italy
Illinialldayeveryday said:
I think the freak out is not this loss per se, but it happens every year and multiple times. Can't we ever just go through a year and win the homes one we should? Dropping games happens but as 10 point favorites is ridiculous. I like the Nebraska team but odds are they are peaking right now. Guessing it will be more 5-7 type seed.
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The reason they play the games instead of just mailing in the "expected results" is that :poop: happens. Players get hurt. Players have an off game.Teams have an off game. Players/Teams get ill. Every team loses a game or games they should win, and every team wins a game or two they should lose.
 
#279      
Illini in Italy
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#280      
BretMyBeachHouse
EmeraldCityIllini said:
You feel pretty confident just shoehorning all those guys into the at minimum the success of underwood?

Mccasaland and Otz would be homeruns. But candidly, Otz didn’t even entertain Kentucky and the rumored buyout was one UK reportedly would struggle with. Mccasaland didn’t listen to Texas and Tech ain’t poor.

Illinois isn’t poaching lville basketball’s coach. And we’re spending a lot of time on underwood sweet 16 runs when as of now Kelsey just needs to focus on winning a (singular) tournament game
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None of them are home runs to me. In all of basketball Oats is really the only guy I could swap out BU for and see significantly better results.

This current version of Underwood probably lacks what it takes for a deep run outside of some bracket busting. I hope he grows. But he's not getting fired, he shouldn't be , and the different color grass on the other side of the fence won't be any better.
 
#281      
WyattEarp
#282      
NarrowJ
bigcityillini said:
I know Narrow J (pretty sure that’s Tyler Underwood, by the way) will argue these conversations shouldn’t even be happening.

That said, from what I’ve seen in bars across the Midwest and in conversations with Illini fans, there’s a growing sense of discontent. Maybe not among die-hards on message boards, but casual fans? They’re bored. You don’t have to agree, but the average fan isn’t thrilled about a roster full of Euros going 22–13.
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It’s just true. Why are we talking about firing a coach that was just given a lifetime contract and has his team in the top 20, currently, and well as top 15 in NET? That’s abject stupidity.

Good to know all the alcoholics and bar flies you hang out with agree with you, but I’m glad Josh Whitman and the rest of Illini Nation do not. If everyone’s so up in arms then why are we seeing ticket sales like never before and droves of fans packing neutral site arenas?

Edit: Also I am not Tyler Underwood, that is @illini0440 lol
 
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#283      
NarrowJ
BretMyBeachHouse said:
None of them are home runs to me. In all of basketball Oats is really the only guy I could swap out BU for and see significantly better results.

This current version of Underwood probably lacks what it takes for a deep run outside of some bracket busting. I hope he grows. But he's not getting fired, he shouldn't be , and the different color grass on the other side of the fence won't be any better.
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I chose this post to respond to simply because I think this is a reasonable conversation everyone could be having. We absolutely have had a couple very frustrating teams of late, even if those teams were still good enough to make the tournament, win a game, etc.

But that hasn’t been the case. The prevalent conversation on here the last couple of days has been to fire the coach, which is what people are actually arguing against, not that we shouldn’t strive for improvement (because everyone wants that).
 
#284      
21ChampaignSt
IlliniFan42 said:
The tournament still had bye games for half the 80s. Two of those second weekend trips, the Illini took advantage of that.
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Ok and one those years they went to the Elite Eight? Take away a game and they still are the equivalent of a second weekend team three times in the 80s. Only thing I like about your logic here is that it would vacate 4 of IU's 5 titles lol.
IlliniFan42 said:
For me, the expectation for the program is two second weekends a decade. Maybe that's why I don't see the sky falling when we're headed for another first weekend exit. That's who Brad is and that's what the program is. If the program did not think that was the standard, they don't put the provision into Brad's contract that just making the tournament automatically adds another year to his tenure.
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This logic doesn't hold up.

No one would argue that he should only be extended if he makes the second weekend. (OK, some might) But if he missed three straight second weekends he'd be coaching on like a two year deal which never happens unless you're on the hot seat with your AD. This doesn't show that JW doesn't think we belong in the second weekend regularly. It shows that the bare minimum for BU to keep his job is to regularly make the tournament. That's the MINIMUM.

And how does that support your argument that Illinois should make two every decade? By your own logic, your position should be that Illinois doesn't need to make any second weekends ever.

Also, don't forget the part where BU's contract includes incentive bonuses for:

- B1G championship
- BTT championship
- Sweet 16
- Top 10 in final AP poll
- Final Four

JW is literally trying to incentivize BU to get to the second weekend. You think he bothers with that bonus if the second weekend wasn't important to him? The words Sweet 16 (or some version of them) are in his contract for a reason.

Every one is entitled to their own opinions and expectations but again, I go back to what I said before. If you think 3 sweet 16's per decade is too much at Illinois, then you have a truly pessimistic view of this program.
 
#285      
NarrowJ
21ChampaignSt said:
Ok and one those years they went to the Elite Eight? Take away a game and they still are the equivalent of a second weekend team three times in the 80s. Only thing I like about your logic here is that it would vacate 4 of IU's 5 titles lol.

This logic doesn't hold up.

No one would argue that he should only be extended if he makes the second weekend. (OK, some might) But if he missed three straight second weekends he'd be coaching on like a two year deal which never happens unless you're on the hot seat with your AD. This doesn't show that JW doesn't think we belong in the second weekend regularly. It shows that the bare minimum for BU to keep his job is to regularly make the tournament. That's the MINIMUM.

And how does that support your argument that Illinois should make two every decade? By your own logic, your position should be that Illinois doesn't need to make any second weekends ever.

Also, don't forget the part where BU's contract includes incentive bonuses for:

- B1G championship
- BTT championship
- Sweet 16
- Top 10 in final AP poll
- Final Four

JW is literally trying to incentivize BU to get to the second weekend. You think he bothers with that bonus if the second weekend wasn't important to him? The words Sweet 16 (or some version of them) are in his contract for a reason.

Every one is entitled to their own opinions and expectations but again, I go back to what I said before. If you think 3 sweet 16's per decade is too much at Illinois, then you have a truly pessimistic view of this program.
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I'm in agreement with 3, once you get up to 4 or more then I think you're getting into blue blood territory (of course we strive to get there). So we're in agreement on that.

We have 1 second weekend thus far, with only half of this decade in the books (and one season where accomplishing the feat was impossible due to COVID). So my cause for concern at this very moment is several ticks below where I think a lot of folks currently are at.

It seems the bare minimum (making the tournament) is not really an issue, and yes he is incentivized for winning championships and progressing in the tournament. So the happy medium is where we make the tournament every year, but yet the incentives are not being met with ease, which is where we are currently, yeah? I just think there are two arguments being brought here at once by different subsets of people: (1) "Fire Brad!!!" and (2) "Brad should improve", and some folks are conflating those two conversations.

I think what you've outlined here is where this conversation starts and ends: he's certainly doing enough to keep his job (he's locked in for how many years?) but it needs to be better if we want to be elite.
 
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#290      
Bigtex
Illiniguy13 said:
I think people forget the only teams to have won 20+ games in each of the last 6 years are...Duke, Gonzaga, Houston and Illinois. Y'all need to relax
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Since 2021-2022

5 NCAA tournaments:
Duke 2 FF, 1 E8, 1 round of 32 1 no NCAA invite
Gonzaga 1FF/ Champ game, 1 E8, 2 S16, 1 round of 32
Houston 2FF/1 champ game, 1E8, 2 S16
Illinois 1E8, 3 round of 32, 1 round of 64 Only win against higher seeded team beat #2 Iowa St.

Winning 20 games is one thing, winning in March is another.
 
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#291      
Illini B-Ball Fan
#292      
Illiniguy13
Bigtex said:
Since 2021-2022

5 NCAA tournaments:
Duke 2 FF, 1 E8, 1 round of 32 1 no NCAA invite
Gonzaga 1FF/ Champ game, 1 E8, 2 S16, 1 round of 32
Houston 2FF/1 champ game, 1E8, 2 S16
Illinois 1E8, 3 round of 32, 1 round of 64 Only win against higher seeded team beat #2 Iowa St.

Winning 20 games is one thing, winning in March is another.
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Thank heavens you were able to spin this. We'd be lost without the negativity.
 
#293      
Fly Illini Fly!
21ChampaignSt said:
3 second weekends per decade is a good benchmark for our program. I actually don't think 4 is unreasonable.

Slush fund scandal nuked the program in the 70s.

Then we recovered and went to four second weekends in the 80s.

Then the Pearl sanctions nuked the program in the 90s.

Then we went to four second weekends in the 2000s.

Then Weber, Groce, and Mike Thomas nuked the program in the 2010s.

Now, here we are. Stable again at last. Our history suggests that we should be able to get to four second weekends this decade. COVID took away 2020 so, three second weekends in reasonable.

Anyone who thinks that is an unreasonable expectation has a super pessimistic opinion of this program.
Click to expand...
This is one post I'll respond to and say I agree with the logic. From 2020-2029, 3-4 second weekends would be a logical, reasonable expectation (and I don't think it's something out of the realm of possibility either).

That would be a much more reasonable assertation than the "1 in 9" slogan that's been redundantly popularized.
 
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#295      
Bigtex
Illiniguy13 said:
Thank heavens you were able to spin this. We'd be lost without the negativity.
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you compared the only teams with 20 wins the last 6 years. Just showing the NCAA results that are less than inspiring. For some winning 20 games is the benchmark (even though they play more games than the past) My expectation is good NCAA tourney results.
 
#296      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
21ChampaignSt said:
3 second weekends per decade is a good benchmark for our program. I actually don't think 4 is unreasonable.

Slush fund scandal nuked the program in the 70s.

Then we recovered and went to four second weekends in the 80s.

Then the Pearl sanctions nuked the program in the 90s.

Then we went to four second weekends in the 2000s.

Then Weber, Groce, and Mike Thomas nuked the program in the 2010s.

Now, here we are. Stable again at last. Our history suggests that we should be able to get to four second weekends this decade. COVID took away 2020 so, three second weekends in reasonable.

Anyone who thinks that is an unreasonable expectation has a super pessimistic opinion of this program.
Click to expand...
If this particular trend does suggest anything however, it’s that we might stink again in the late, late years of Brad and/or the next few coaches. So enjoy the good times while they are.
 
#297      
NarrowJ
Bigtex said:
you compared the only teams with 20 wins the last 6 years. Just showing the NCAA results that are less than inspiring. For some winning 20 games is the benchmark (even though they play more games than the past) My expectation is good NCAA tourney results.
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Only half of this decade is gone, and one of those seasons it was impossible to advance in the tourney because there wasn't one. Your expectation is perfectly fine, but is having a little patience okay? We have 5 more seasons in this decade yet to get to a couple more 2nd weekends. If we admit every other box has been checked, then do we really need to have the seemingly endless posts every day whining about tournament results?
 
#299      
Battle89
Illiniguy13 said:
Thank heavens you were able to spin this. We'd be lost without the negativity.
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Is is possible to just state your case without the snark? First it’s ’just relax’, and then when the guy directly rebuts the teams you mentioned, you double down.

I’m not taking a position because you’re both right. Brad has done a tremendous job here, has a stellar regular season record, and has greatly elevated the program. However that same success has not been fully realized in March.

Just tired of the personal attacks.
 
#300      
21ChampaignSt
NarrowJ said:
I just think there are two arguments being brought here at once by different subsets of people: (1) "Fire Brad!!!" and (2) "Brad should improve", and some folks are conflating those two conversations.

I think what you've outlined here is where this conversation starts and ends: he's certainly doing enough to keep his job (he's locked in for how many years?) but it needs to be better if we want to be elite.
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Agreed 100%.

I think some people think that by expecting more second weekends, it sets a bar that BU might not be able to reach so instead of wanting us to continue to improve and reach that bar, they lower the bar.

FWIW, here is how I look at it.

Make the tournament, lose in first or second round = standard season

Don't make the tournament = bad season

Advance to the Sweet 16 and/or raise a B1G banner = Good season

Final Four+ = special season

I think in a given decade when we're not racked with sanctions or bad leadership we all should reasonably expect:

9 out of 10 years to be "standard". Stuff happens (injuries, whatever) so I think we can give an allowance for 1 bad year a decade.

4 out of 10 (although I won't argue with 3/10) should be good years.

1 out of 10 should be special.

Now, I don't really draw hard lines in the sand like this. There are nuances. But I think all of the above is very very reasonable for our program.

Right now, by my criteria, BU this decade has:
3/6 standard seasons
3/6 good seasons
0/6 bad seasons
0/6 special seasons

But back to your original point, it's hard to have conversations like this because people immediately think you're calling for Brad's head if you suggest that there's room for improvement.
 
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