Illini Basketball 2026-2027

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#126      
the juiceman cometh
WhereDoWeStandWithStorr? said:
Yes that’s a fine bar. All of our 9th men over the years have reached it (sans Petro).

Whether Brown or Zens can gain that trust as well is the question, which is TBD.
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Not true, and how not true it is depends on how you define 9th man.

2020 - Verdict: Not true
- 9th in games played - Jermaine Hamlin - 16 games
- 9th in total minutes Tevian Jones - 14 games
- 9th in mpg - BBV - 9 games

2021- Coleman Hawkins - 25 games - Verdict: Not True

2022 - Verdict: Likely True but somewhat ambiguous
- 9th in games played - BBV - 25 games
- 9th in mpg - Luke Goode - 28 games
- 9th in total minutes - Omar Payne - 32 games

2023 - Verdict: Not True but somewhat ambiguous
- 9th in games played was Brandon Lieb at 16
- 9th in total minutes played was Skyy Clark who played in 13 games
- You will likely argue Ty or Sencire as 9th man, but after Skyy leaving and Goode's injury, there was unambiguously a 8-man rotation with Brandon Lieb as the 9th man

2024 - DGL - 28 games - Verdict: True

2025 - Jake Davis - Verdict: True

2026, MP, which you mentione - Verdict: Not True

So I mean really we're talking about maybe 3/7 seasons where there has been a 9th man who has played in 28 games. And then, I mean, look at some of the guys on this list. Omar Payne playing in 32 games? How "playable" was Omar Payne? I don't remember breathing a sigh of relief when he checked in.

Grandpa said:
IMHO we should be rooting for the 10th man to be so good that we can't keep him on the bench.
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OK let's say this happens and then we run out a 9-man rotation. Here's my prediction for the chatter next offseason:

Grandpa said:
IMHO we should be rooting for the 10th man to be so good that we can't keep him on the bench.
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And then when we run out a 10-man rotation, the next offseason we're going to see:

Grandpa said:
IMHO we should be rooting for the 11th man to be so good that we can't keep him on the bench.
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And on, and on. I mean here's the thing. There are only so many minutes to be had. Your 8th best player is better than your 9th best player, and your 7th best player is better than your 8th best player, and so on. Every minute you give the 9th man because he's "so good" is a minute you take away from a player who is even better. This is why you see NBA rosters, where you have 40 additional minutes to allocate to players due to the longer game time and where you play more than double the number of games a college team plays, still often run 9-10 man rotations in the regular season and shorten those to 8-man rotations come playoff time, even though the #15 player on their roster would be a surefire starter in any other league in the world.
 
#128      
WhereDoWeStandWithStorr?
the juiceman cometh said:
Not true, and how not true it is depends on how you define 9th man.

2020 - Verdict: Not true
- 9th in games played - Jermaine Hamlin - 16 games
- 9th in total minutes Tevian Jones - 14 games
- 9th in mpg - BBV - 9 games

2021- Coleman Hawkins - 25 games - Verdict: Not True

2022 - Verdict: Likely True but somewhat ambiguous
- 9th in games played - BBV - 25 games
- 9th in mpg - Luke Goode - 28 games
- 9th in total minutes - Omar Payne - 32 games

2023 - Verdict: Not True but somewhat ambiguous
- 9th in games played was Brandon Lieb at 16
- 9th in total minutes played was Skyy Clark who played in 13 games
- You will likely argue Ty or Sencire as 9th man, but after Skyy leaving and Goode's injury, there was unambiguously a 8-man rotation with Brandon Lieb as the 9th man

2024 - DGL - 28 games - Verdict: True

2025 - Jake Davis - Verdict: True

2026, MP, which you mentione - Verdict: Not True

So I mean really we're talking about maybe 3/7 seasons where there has been a 9th man who has played in 28 games. And then, I mean, look at some of the guys on this list. Omar Payne playing in 32 games? How "playable" was Omar Payne? I don't remember breathing a sigh of relief when he checked in.



OK let's say this happens and then we run out a 9-man rotation. Here's my prediction for the chatter next offseason:



And then when we run out a 10-man rotation, the next offseason we're going to see:



And on, and on. I mean here's the thing. There are only so many minutes to be had. Your 8th best player is better than your 9th best player, and your 7th best player is better than your 8th best player, and so on. Every minute you give the 9th man because he's "so good" is a minute you take away from a player who is even better. This is why you see NBA rosters, where you have 40 additional minutes to allocate to players due to the longer game time and where you play more than double the number of games a college team plays, still often run 9-10 man rotations in the regular season and shorten those to 8-man rotations come playoff time, even though the #15 player on their roster would be a surefire starter in any other league in the world.
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2021 definitely counts. Coleman played in 25/31 games which is 81%. We just had less games that year due to COVID.

2023 - Skyy leaving and Goode injury was at separate times. When Skyy played we didn’t have Goode. When Goode played we didn’t have Skyy. For most of the year we played 9 deep.
 
#131      
NarrowJ
WhereDoWeStandWithStorr? said:
2021 definitely counts. Coleman played in 25/31 games which is 81%. We just had less games that year due to COVID.

2023 - Skyy leaving and Goode injury was at separate times. When Skyy played we didn’t have Goode. When Goode played we didn’t have Skyy. For most of the year we played 9 deep.
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# of games appeared in means nothing, honestly

Certainly not worth your incessant haggling over it
 
#132      
Grandpa
Not true, and how not true it is depends on how you define 9th man.

2020 - Verdict: Not true
- 9th in games played - Jermaine Hamlin - 16 games
- 9th in total minutes Tevian Jones - 14 games
- 9th in mpg - BBV - 9 games

2021- Coleman Hawkins - 25 games - Verdict: Not True

2022 - Verdict: Likely True but somewhat ambiguous
- 9th in games played - BBV - 25 games
- 9th in mpg - Luke Goode - 28 games
- 9th in total minutes - Omar Payne - 32 games

2023 - Verdict: Not True but somewhat ambiguous
- 9th in games played was Brandon Lieb at 16
- 9th in total minutes played was Skyy Clark who played in 13 games
- You will likely argue Ty or Sencire as 9th man, but after Skyy leaving and Goode's injury, there was unambiguously a 8-man rotation with Brandon Lieb as the 9th man

2024 - DGL - 28 games - Verdict: True

2025 - Jake Davis - Verdict: True

2026, MP, which you mentione - Verdict: Not True

So I mean really we're talking about maybe 3/7 seasons where there has been a 9th man who has played in 28 games. And then, I mean, look at some of the guys on this list. Omar Payne playing in 32 games? How "playable" was Omar Payne? I don't remember breathing a sigh of relief when he checked in.



OK let's say this happens and then we run out a 9-man rotation. Here's my prediction for the chatter next offseason:



And then when we run out a 10-man rotation, the next offseason we're going to see:



And on, and on. I mean here's the thing. There are only so many minutes to be had. Your 8th best player is better than your 9th best player, and your 7th best player is better than your 8th best player, and so on. Every minute you give the 9th man because he's "so good" is a minute you take away from a player who is even better. This is why you see NBA rosters, where you have 40 additional minutes to allocate to players due to the longer game time and where you play more than double the number of games a college team plays, still often run 9-10 man rotations in the regular season and shorten those to 8-man rotations come playoff time, even though the #15 player on their roster would be a surefire starter in any other league in the world.
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First of all what kind of person changes another's quote but still attributes it to him?

So you are hoping for our 9th man to be an abject failure so that he won't steal any minutes from the 8th guy? That's what you said.

I'm hoping that everyone on the team is so good that when the seniors leave we don't have a problem except for needing some size. We can just step up and be the best team in the nation. Why are you against that?
 
#134      
WhereDoWeStandWithStorr?
NarrowJ said:
# of games appeared in means nothing, honestly

Certainly not worth your incessant haggling over it
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Well, the 9th man needs to be capable of getting onto the court so that you have a playable option in case of emergency/injury. (To judge this, we can say 28 games is a fine bar)

If not, then it's likely the team has a depth issue.
 
#135      
NarrowJ
WhereDoWeStandWithStorr? said:
Well, the 9th man needs to be capable of getting onto the court so that you have a playable option in case of emergency/injury. (To judge this, we can say 28 games is a fine bar)

If not, then it's likely the team has a depth issue.
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And (again) games appeared in does not prove a player is capable of meaningful playing time

These players tend to come in the game when the score is out of hand or for spot minutes if there's foul trouble

There is literally zero point in reading in to the number of games a guy came in and played for 30 seconds
 
#137      
the juiceman cometh
WhereDoWeStandWithStorr? said:
2023 - Skyy leaving and Goode injury was at separate times. When Skyy played we didn’t have Goode. When Goode played we didn’t have Skyy. For most of the year we played 9 deep.
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You know what, that's a fair point. If you want to slice it that thin, let's go for pastrami.

When you say 9-deep, I assume you're saying a 9-man rotation. So, what is a rotation player? I've typically seen it defined as someone who plays at least 10 minutes. I drilled down into that season a little more, and for the sake of argument included some numbers on players playing 5+ minutes as well.

Games with Skyy:

Competitive games - There were 5 in the Skyy Clark era. There was not a single competitive game in the Skyy Clark era where 9 players played 10+ minutes. In 4/5 of those 8 players played 10+ minutes. In the one exception, against Northwestern, only 7 players played 10+ minutes. In that game Sencire, despite starting, only played 9 minutes, and Ty, Lieb, and Paxton Warden were able to check in and combine for 2 minutes. Bar the Northwestern game, all of the other competitive games had 9 players check in for at least 5 minutes.

Blowouts - Skyy played in 8 blowouts. 9 players made it to 5+ minutes in 7/8. 9 players got to 10+ minutes in 7/8 blowouts.

In total, 9 players made it to 5+ minutes 12/13 Skyy games, and to 10+ minutes, 7/13 Skyy games.

Games with neither/Skyy nor Luke

Competitive: There were 7 competitive games in which Skyy did not play, before Luke came back. 0/7 featured a 9th player with at least 5 minutes. 5/7 did not even have a 9th player check into the game.

Blowout: There were 3 blowouts in this time period. All three had at least 10 players check in. 2/3 had player #9 play at least 5 minutes. 1/3 had player #9 play at least 10 minutes.

Games with Luke

Competitive: After Goode came back, all 10 games were competitive. We had 9 players check in 8/10 of those games. We had 9 players play 5+ minutes in only 3/10 of those games. We did not have a single game in which 9 or more players played 10 minutes, even after Goode came back.

Takeaways

So, if rotation is 5+ minutes, then we only had 17 games with a 9-man rotation (in which 9 or more players played 5+ minutes) and 12 of those were with Skyy, so after Skyy left, we only got to a 9-player rotation in 5 of the remaining 20 games.

If rotation is 10+ minutes, which to me seems reasonable, then we only had 9 players meet that bar in 7 games, and every single one of them was a blowout while Skyy was still on the team.

As an added fact, after Skyy's last game against Northwestern, in 7/19 of our remaining games a 9th player did not even check in, even for spot minutes.

So, yeah, I take issue with the idea that at any point in that season we played 9-deep in any meaningful way....

But assume we did. Who was the 9th man? You've framed it as being Ty, but if you look at those box scores, after Skyy left Ty was solidly in the 8-man rotation, as was Sencire. They had been promoted to 7th and 8th man by teh beginning of conference play, and were never demoted back. In fact, neither Ty did not come in 9th in minutes in a single game after Skyy's departure, and Sencire only did one time. Here are the guys who came in 9th in minutes for the 20 games Skyy did not play in:

None (only 8 played) (7x)
Brandon Lieb (6x)
Luke Goode (2x)
Jayden Epps (2x)
RJ Melendez (1x)
Sencire Harris (1x)
Zaccharie Perrin (1x)

This is just all a lot of info to say that this 9th man framing is at the same time both an oversimplification of something complicated (the fluctuations of a roster and minute allocation for dozens of reasons) and an overparsing of something relatively unimportant (the quality of a player likely to mostly play spot minutes and in blowouts).

And lastly, this. The utter absurdity of looking at the chaos that is the 2023 roster's minute allocation, looking at our current roster, and trying to make any kind of comparison. Unless things go just horribly wrong, we won't be in the kind of situation where we are asking Zens and Brown to be Ty and Sencire. And if things go that wrong, then there is no magic that any coach could have conjured in the transfer portal that would have saved it.
 
#138      
Emerson Bigguns
NarrowJ said:
MLT called this “the disease of more” or something to that effect where successful players want to expand their game outside of what’s actually needed from them

Edit: I misunderstood the original post
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I believe Pat Riley coined the "Disease of More" as something that gripped teams, post-championship. Basically, winning takes everyone buying into a role and focusing on the team success. Once its achieved many guys who were once happy to play a role, want more money, more playing time, more media exposure, more plays designed for them, etc... Which ruins the chemistry that got them to the title.
 
#139      
NarrowJ
Emerson Bigguns said:
I believe Pat Riley coined the "Disease of More" as something that gripped teams, post-championship. Basically, winning takes everyone buying into a role and focusing on the team success. Once its achieved many guys who were once happy to play a role, want more money, more playing time, more media exposure, more plays designed for them, etc... Which ruins the chemistry that got them to the title.
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Yes, that was what I heard on the podcast... coming back to me now. Appreciate the refresher!
 
#140      
Emerson Bigguns
WhereDoWeStandWithStorr? said:
Well, the 9th man needs to be capable of getting onto the court so that you have a playable option in case of emergency/injury. (To judge this, we can say 28 games is a fine bar)

If not, then it's likely the team has a depth issue.
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I'm confused... Are the freshmen we recruited so bad at basketball they wouldn't be able to step onto the court and have some idea what is going on?

There are a handful of teams in the B1G for which Landon Davis would represent the highest or 2nd highest grade on a recruit, per 247. (88) He's our lowest.
 
#141      
skyIdub
This 9th man stupidity might just be the dumbest debate in Loyalty history.

That is really saying something.

We are in the best spot in this programs history and there is so little to question about really anything....so yeah.....9th man is really important sh#t.
 
#142      
Emerson Bigguns
Emerson Bigguns said:
I'm confused... Are the freshmen we recruited so bad at basketball they wouldn't be able to step onto the court and have some idea what is going on?

There are a handful of teams in the B1G for which Landon Davis would represent the highest or 2nd highest grade on a recruit, per 247. (88) He's our lowest.
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I'd also like to add this context, for those who refuse to look down the bench farther than our "Top 100" guys.

Ethan Brown as a prep is rated on par with Trent Frazier, Alan Griffin, Coleman Hawkins, DGL, and Luke Goode. All were quite playable as freshmen.

Landon Davis is rated higher than Demonte Williams was...

A few of those guys turned out to be some of the most beloved players in the last 20 years.

Both Davis and Brown were targeted and pursued early in the cycle. We didn't "settle" for these guys. These are guys the staff WANTED.
 
#143      
Fly Illini Fly!
Emerson Bigguns said:
I'd also like to add this context, for those who refuse to look down the bench farther than our "Top 100" guys.

Ethan Brown as a prep is rated on par with Trent Frazier, Alan Griffin, Coleman Hawkins, DGL, and Luke Goode. All were quite playable as freshmen.

Landon Davis is rated higher than Demonte Williams was...

A few of those guys turned out to be some of the most beloved players in the last 20 years.

Both Davis and Brown were targeted and pursued early in the cycle. We didn't "settle" for these guys. These are guys the staff WANTED.
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Zens.
 
#144      
Emerson Bigguns
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Zens.
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Is rated higher than all I mentioned. I kind of put him in the Top 100 basket. Close enough for horseshoes... I think everyone assumes he is going to play. A lot of people act like Brown and Davis have no shot at being decent this year. Our history with similarly profiled guys says different.
 
#147      
Fly Illini Fly!
Is rated higher than all I mentioned. I kind of put him in the Top 100 basket. Close enough for horseshoes... I think everyone assumes he is going to play. A lot of people act like Brown and Davis have no shot at being decent this year. Our history with similarly profiled guys says different.
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Then why do we have the #9thMan debate?
 
#148      
Illini B-Ball Fan
Emerson Bigguns said:
Is rated higher than all I mentioned. I kind of put him in the Top 100 basket. Close enough for horseshoes... I think everyone assumes he is going to play. A lot of people act like Brown and Davis have no shot at being decent this year. Our history with similarly profiled guys says different.
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Those towards the end of the bench will be in a "yet to be determined" situation. If nothing else, all the practices before the first season game will show us who's who as far as the pecking order. It will also definitely provide a lot to talk about regarding a story for each player and their progression or not. Will be looking forward to it since there may be someone who may surprise all of us with the competitive team challenges ahead.
 
#150      
wc_illini
Regardless of where you stand on the depth of our team, why are we talking about any of our not-so-elite previous teams?

If you want to compare our upcoming roster with last year, 2020-21, or maybe 2023-24 that's one thing. But who cares what our roster looked like when we ended the season ranked outside the top ~10? And I'd really rather compare to previous champions and/or the top 2-3 in final rankings.
 
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