Can you name names?
Illini Basketball 2026-2027
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Ned isakoff
OrangeBlue98
Iowa is not in a great spot right now (LvilleILL1)
- Des Moines, IA
Approximately 320 Division 1 men’s basketball coaches would give a body part to have this problem…….
Gotta be some super competitive practices. Love to hear it.
Can't help myself. Going to do a minutes projection.
1. Vaaks (33 mpg) QC (5 mpg) Morillo (2 mpg)
2. QC (20 mpg) Jake (10 mpg) Morillo (8 mpg)
3. Andrej (30 mpg) Jake (10 mpg)
4. Mirk (33 mpg) Z (4 mpg)
5. Tomi (28 mpg) Z (12 mpg)
Here's how I got there:
- Vaaks will play 30+ minutes. We've had a newcomer average more than 30 every year since Ayo left. Keaton, KJ, Marcus, TJ, Plummer.
- Jake will play the same amount of minutes but will play more at the 2 this year. He and Andrej only played together for an average of about 6 minutes per game last year but when they did play together, it was one of the most efficient 5 man lineups in college basketball. So, I'm looking for that number to increase.
- Sophomore leap will lead to Mirk's minutes increasing
- Tomi, now fully healthy and confident in his role will surpass the 27 mpg he played his first season here.
- And Z will be about the same as last year but he and Tomi will get to play together a little more this year.
So based on that I was projecting:
7 mpg available at the 1
30 mpg available at the 2
3 mpg available at the 4
You gotta think that QC gets 25 mpg conservatively.
With most of the opportunity available at the 1 or 2, I talked myself into Morillo being our 8th man at about 10 mpg. Which leaves about 5 mpg for another freshman based on need for a given game.
Interestingly and probably not coincidentally, this harkens back to 2024 a little bit when we returned a good portion of a veteran squad entrenched in their roles. Dain rounded out an 8 man rotation that year averaging 11 mpg with DGL averaging 7 mpg but registering DNPs in 10 games.
1. Vaaks (33 mpg) QC (5 mpg) Morillo (2 mpg)
2. QC (20 mpg) Jake (10 mpg) Morillo (8 mpg)
3. Andrej (30 mpg) Jake (10 mpg)
4. Mirk (33 mpg) Z (4 mpg)
5. Tomi (28 mpg) Z (12 mpg)
Here's how I got there:
- Vaaks will play 30+ minutes. We've had a newcomer average more than 30 every year since Ayo left. Keaton, KJ, Marcus, TJ, Plummer.
- Jake will play the same amount of minutes but will play more at the 2 this year. He and Andrej only played together for an average of about 6 minutes per game last year but when they did play together, it was one of the most efficient 5 man lineups in college basketball. So, I'm looking for that number to increase.
- Sophomore leap will lead to Mirk's minutes increasing
- Tomi, now fully healthy and confident in his role will surpass the 27 mpg he played his first season here.
- And Z will be about the same as last year but he and Tomi will get to play together a little more this year.
So based on that I was projecting:
7 mpg available at the 1
30 mpg available at the 2
3 mpg available at the 4
You gotta think that QC gets 25 mpg conservatively.
With most of the opportunity available at the 1 or 2, I talked myself into Morillo being our 8th man at about 10 mpg. Which leaves about 5 mpg for another freshman based on need for a given game.
Interestingly and probably not coincidentally, this harkens back to 2024 a little bit when we returned a good portion of a veteran squad entrenched in their roles. Dain rounded out an 8 man rotation that year averaging 11 mpg with DGL averaging 7 mpg but registering DNPs in 10 games.
33 is way too much for Mirk. Guys with similar body times RARELY get to 33 minutes.
Derek Queen for example was 30.5
Morillo. Incredibly established top 8.
9, 10, 11 are completely up for grabs between Zens, Brown, Williams. None of them are supplanting Morillo.
(P.S. I know there will be a reply to this with the typical "nothing is solidified into the future" argument. Which I'd agree to - except you're putting that same emphasis on the top 7 being solidified.
If we're saying the top 7 is solidified, then the top 8 is even more solidified. There's SIGNIFICANTLY more chance of Morillo cracking the top 7 than there is of Brown/Zens/Williams cracking the top 8.)
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It has to be better than 28% (Z) and 31% (Tomi) if that's the goal.
Both need to be 33% or above, at least.
The drop-off in our roster is after you get passed Morillo (not Zvonimir or Jake).
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
He averaged 29.5/game last year. Seems about right for his average again this year factoring in blowouts. Will likely give 30+ in meaningful games.
I think Illinois has more talented and I wouldn't even say MSU has depth but they are definitely going to end up near the top of the big10 imo.
Somebody needs to sell me on Michigan State because I don't see it. They have 1 really good player.
Fears and Teng will give them a veteran backcourt and then Jervis is in the same range as Coleman as a prep recruit. Could very easily be one of the best back courts in the country.
Then Carr is probably the best athlete in college basketball. I'm not as sold on the frontcourt but Izzo also does tend to get more out of his teams than the sun of their parts.
His average last year of 29.5 seems about right for his average this year. Maybe a little more - I’ll say 30.5.
It's just extremely, extremely unlikely that he plays 33 (which was the original point). 6”9 250 pound power forwards playing that many minutes is super rare.
You can look thru the All Big Ten teams each year:
Tre Kaufman led the Big Ten in scoring prior to Cluff coming. He played 30.8.
Derick Queen played 30.5
Morez Johnson was the best PF in the conference last year and played 25.1 (a lot of it is due to Michigan's blowouts).
Danny Wolf played 30.5
Reink Mast played 29.7 the year he was all big ten (and last year played 29.2).
Tyler Bilodeau at UCLA was at 30.2.
Coleman Hawkins played 31.6 in 2024 (and he's on the much lighter end in terms of weight).
There may be some exceptions - mostly it just signifies the team isn't able to play without you AT ALL.
The guy had Mirk at 33 and Coleman at 25. I think Coleman at 28 and Mirk at 30 is a lot more realistic.
MSU has more depth, it's not close.
Starting 5 (per Rothstein): Fears, Carr, Scott, Ward, Bonke.
Bench: Teng, Glenn (averaged 13/game at Eastern KY), Jervis (5 star freshman), Taylor (5 star freshman), Medlock (top 50 freshman).
MSU and USC are the deepest teams. Michigan would've been in that conversation had Cason played, but he transferred.
Way too much? He played 30 mpg last year as a freshman. So, even if you assume 30 minutes is his absolute physical limit, we're talking about a difference of 3 minutes lol.
3 more minutes isn't alot. But 3 more minutes PER GAME is.
You might be right. I could be high on his minutes.
But mostly I just find your tolerance to error amusing.
Increase mpg by 1: Just right
Increase mpg by 3: Inconceivable!
I get a ton of flak on here for various things I argue about, but hopefully I've never gotten this pedantic.
Cameron Boozer played 33.5 minutes per game last season at the same exact height and weight as Mirkovic played at last year (and David is looking like he's going to be in a lot better physical shape this season).
33 minute average is certainly not impossible.
Cameron Boozer played 33.5 minutes per game last season at the same exact height and weight as Mirkovic played at last year (and David is looking like he's going to be in a lot better physical shape this season).
33 minute average is certainly not impossible.
Resident Illinois detractor strikes again *sigh*
Taylor is probably a far better player than Bonke, he'll eventually be in the starting lineup unless he gets the Izzo treatment (which is that he'll play seasoned upperclassmen over clearly more talented/but raw freshmen).
Love the touting of Glenn "averaged 13/game at Eastern KY" like that's impressive or something, haha, our top 100 freshmen are likely far better options.
Jervis is a 4 star, not a 5 star (checked every ranking service, he's not a 5 star anywhere... on3, 247, ESPN all have him at 4 star).
Our bench is anchored by seniors who played on a F4 team in Davis and Zvonimir and Morillo is certainly worth a mention if Medlock is. MSU's rotation relies more heavily on incoming freshmen and a smaller pool of returning wings to fill that out.
Putting together a pretty epic troll resume
Cam Boozer was the national player of the year, averaging 22.5 points, 10.2 boards, 4.1 assists.
His Torvik PORPAGATU rating of 7.6 was historic. He also had a 30.6% usage.
It's highly unlikely 1) Mirk is THAT level of player and 2) we'll be THAT reliant on him. Vaaks will most likely have the highest usage on the team, as the lead guard with the ball in his hands.
"Impossible" is a subjective conversation, but what you're arguing for has very low likelihood.
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Inconceivable because guys of that prototype usually don't play that amount. But they do play 29-31.
And 3 minutes PER GAME is a big difference. 33.0 minutes per game last year would rank 208th in the country, while 30.0 would rank 570th.
Joel Goodson
- it's all ball bearings, nowadays
Playing time for most players is about the delta between the him and the replacement. Right now, it seems to be pretty big which speaks to more minutes. Pace will matter some as well, but 33 minutes isn't out of line.
I think the absolute end of the argument was the national championship game. Two team that combined to go 71-9 played the following people.
Michigan- played 8 guys. Their 8th guy played 6 mins. The believe in a deep bench so much that they played a hurt player 36 mins.
UCONN- played 9 guys. The 8th and 9th guys played 14 mins.
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