DICKnaggie
- Champaign
Lots of talk about him needing to become a better shooter before he is a pro prospect but there is a lot to like for sure.
Illini Basketball 2026-2027
- Status
The first step is to make the rotation. Then provide a good 8-12 minutes a game.
Shot was looking good to me in those clips plus he's a known scorer.
I'm more encouraged that the athleticism translates and he looks to be a quick jumper as well. Rodgers was a quick jumper like that as well but Williams looks like he has even more explosive athleticism.
I'm thinking he's getting minutes this year and could be an impact piece for a team looking to win a championship. You're going to need that in some of these battles with elite teams and athletes across the country.
I'm looking forward to the football and basketball seasons big time.
2025-2026 49.7 overall %, 41.4 from three. 20.7 PPG seems pretty good to me.
Yes because the "ceiling" of our defense is not what it would need to be to win a national title
#9th man.
In all honesty, I know it’s not realistic, but I wish we could see a lot of all the freshmen. I believe Coleman is going to start but I wish some of the others would be breakout players so it’s impossible to not play them.
Yes, but in a different program with a completely different offensive system.
At Illinois, he was a very subpar shooter.
Key is going to be development and retention, they all seem really good players. Have this group as a solid base and sprinkle 1-2 5 star talents and we are cooking. Look what Iowa and Wisconsin did this past year by developing players while adding 1-2 transfers.
Just our stars and base/role players will be better.
Since 2015, there’s only been 2 national champions outside the top 5 in offense - and even then, both those teams were still in the top 10, and Kansas itself was 6.
I’d push back on MSU at 26th last year as proving they have an offensive ceiling good enough to win a title.
Now, while the past 10+ years defensive rating hasn’t corresponded as strongly as offense (there’s a few teams who won outside the top 15, and 5 outside the top ten altogether), it’s still pretty clear you wanna firmly be inside the top 15 - and think that should be the goal for us and I don’t think at true “ceiling” that’s impossible.
You really asked him that question though like you didn’t already know what the answer was going to be
You really asked him that question though like you didn’t already know what the answer was going to be
lol.
I actually think looking at Kenpom, you can make a real case the days of “top 40 offense and top 25 defense” are just totally gone.
It’s pretty much a non negotiable you need to have a top 10 offense, but also true the defense really can’t be outside the top 15 without requiring some tourney luck (which isn’t a bad spot either with bites at the apple).
Metrically, all these recent winners have been powerhouses (so remember that come season when we get the random conference loss and we hear about how Kenpom is fake).
If you wanna make the case top 20 for Illinois actually isn’t good enough to win a title, I actually think there’s some merit. But just know only 3-4 teams are gonna then qualify as “ceiling could be a national title” under that logic
Luther Head as a freshman was nowhere near the shooter of Luther Head either.
Yeah, "ceiling" is kind of a dumb exercise for something with a high variance, especially a single elimination tournament. If they want to identify teams whose ceiling is top tier (i.e. a 1-seed), that's a bit better I guess, but still seems like too many teams could end up there if one of their freshman is half the surprise Keaton was and a couple returnees/transfers take a reasonable step forward.
Well then damn, no one in the Big Ten is winning a National Championship this next year.
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Then become so good that he is playing 30 minutes per game and Loyalty is complaining that he is on the bench too much.
Retaining most of this freshman class will depend largely on how many veteran players in front of them leave after this year....and how many transfers are brought in next year. The frosh that get little playing time this year and see little opportunity the following year(Pods) will probably be looking elsewhere for that playing time. Most good young players won't wait 2 years to play.I think we absolutely have to keep Zen for the 2nd year this time to compare to the Wisc Mr. basketball experience last time.
sad but true. Sigh...
I am NOT pushing back on the point that you need a great offense to win a natty.
However, that particular statistical analogy I just can't stand (and will never be able to stand). The "every champion since x season has been x in offense and x in defense" arguments.
OF COURSE those teams will be top whatever in offense, defense, and have such and such KenPom rating. Because those ratings are AFTER THEY WON THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP. KenPom does not magically stop on Selection Sunday. Almost all of the top 25 teams in a given year would satisfy those requirements, had there been a national championship run in their season.
It's crazy to me how many times it gets said when filling out brackets, before the tournament. And how nintelligent minds continue to fall for it. It's the single most useless thing anyone can take stock in.
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Its crazy how sure of themselves people can be, yet be so so wrong.
1. Pre-Tournament data exists: your entire premise rests on the false assumption that we are trapped using "polluted" post-tournament data. Tournament game data is still data (and also: it is the most recent data that's available... I'd actually weight it heavier, if we had a choice)
2. Champions are already elite: of the last 24 national champions, 23 entered the tournament with a top 25 offense.
3. The 6-game drop in the bucket: A 6-game tournament run cannot mathematically inflate a 35-game sample size from mediocre to elite.
And guess what? If you advance to the end of a 68 team tournament containing the best teams in the sport... you're probably indeed a very good team that is assuredly worthy of it's end-of-season KP ranking. It isn't as if a 6 game title run artificially inflates their ranking, that's nuts.
MSU was 24th on offense going into the tournament - if you're telling us you need a great offense to win a national title, then idk what we're even talking about anyway.
This notion all the teams who make the final four rocket up the kenpom ratings from the depths of hell solely because they went 4 extra games is wild (in fact - illinois' offensive rating actually went down). They were aleady good in Kenpom 99% of the time.
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