Illini Basketball 2026-2027

#176      
SescIllini
OrangeNTude said:
#9th man.

In all honesty, I know it’s not realistic, but I wish we could see a lot of all the freshmen. I believe Coleman is going to start but I wish some of the others would be breakout players so it’s impossible to not play them.
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Key is going to be development and retention, they all seem really good players. Have this group as a solid base and sprinkle 1-2 5 star talents and we are cooking. Look what Iowa and Wisconsin did this past year by developing players while adding 1-2 transfers.

Just our stars and base/role players will be better.
 
#177      
EmeraldCityIllini
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
Yes because the "ceiling" of our defense is not what it would need to be to win a national title
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Since 2015, there’s only been 2 national champions outside the top 5 in offense - and even then, both those teams were still in the top 10, and Kansas itself was 6.

I’d push back on MSU at 26th last year as proving they have an offensive ceiling good enough to win a title.

Now, while the past 10+ years defensive rating hasn’t corresponded as strongly as offense (there’s a few teams who won outside the top 15, and 5 outside the top ten altogether), it’s still pretty clear you wanna firmly be inside the top 15 - and think that should be the goal for us and I don’t think at true “ceiling” that’s impossible.
 
#178      
NarrowJ
EmeraldCityIllini said:
Since 2015, there’s only been 2 national champions outside the top 5 in offense - and even then, both those teams were still in the top 10, and Kansas itself was 6.

I’d push back on MSU at 26th last year as proving they have an offensive ceiling good enough to win a title.

Now, while the past 10+ years defensive rating hasn’t corresponded as strongly as offense (there’s a few teams who won outside the top 15, and 5 outside the top ten altogether), it’s still pretty clear you wanna firmly be inside the top 15 - and think that should be the goal for us and I don’t think at true “ceiling” that’s impossible.
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You really asked him that question though like you didn’t already know what the answer was going to be 😉
 
#179      
EmeraldCityIllini
NarrowJ said:
You really asked him that question though like you didn’t already know what the answer was going to be 😉
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lol.

I actually think looking at Kenpom, you can make a real case the days of “top 40 offense and top 25 defense” are just totally gone.

It’s pretty much a non negotiable you need to have a top 10 offense, but also true the defense really can’t be outside the top 15 without requiring some tourney luck (which isn’t a bad spot either with bites at the apple).

Metrically, all these recent winners have been powerhouses (so remember that come season when we get the random conference loss and we hear about how Kenpom is fake).

If you wanna make the case top 20 for Illinois actually isn’t good enough to win a title, I actually think there’s some merit. But just know only 3-4 teams are gonna then qualify as “ceiling could be a national title” under that logic
 
#181      
wc_illini
EmeraldCityIllini said:
lol.

I actually think looking at Kenpom, you can make a real case the days of “top 40 offense and top 25 defense” are just totally gone.

It’s pretty much a non negotiable you need to have a top 10 offense, but also true the defense really can’t be outside the top 15 without requiring some tourney luck (which isn’t a bad spot either with bites at the apple).

Metrically, all these recent winners have been powerhouses (so remember that come season when we get the random conference loss and we hear about how Kenpom is fake).

If you wanna make the case top 20 for Illinois actually isn’t good enough to win a title, I actually think there’s some merit. But just know only 3-4 teams are gonna then qualify as “ceiling could be a national title” under that logic
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Yeah, "ceiling" is kind of a dumb exercise for something with a high variance, especially a single elimination tournament. If they want to identify teams whose ceiling is top tier (i.e. a 1-seed), that's a bit better I guess, but still seems like too many teams could end up there if one of their freshman is half the surprise Keaton was and a couple returnees/transfers take a reasonable step forward.
 
#184      
Boomauer
Mobi said:
I think we absolutely have to keep Zen for the 2nd year this time to compare to the Wisc Mr. basketball experience last time. 🤣🤣🤣
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Retaining most of this freshman class will depend largely on how many veteran players in front of them leave after this year....and how many transfers are brought in next year. The frosh that get little playing time this year and see little opportunity the following year(Pods) will probably be looking elsewhere for that playing time. Most good young players won't wait 2 years to play.
 
#185      
Brosky
Boomauer said:
Retaining most of this freshman class will depend largely on how many veteran players in front of them leave after this year....and how many transfers are brought in next year. The frosh that get little playing time this year and see little opportunity the following year(Pods) will probably be looking elsewhere for that playing time. Most good young players won't wait 2 years to play.
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sad but true. Sigh...
 
#186      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
EmeraldCityIllini said:
Since 2015, there’s only been 2 national champions outside the top 5 in offense - and even then, both those teams were still in the top 10, and Kansas itself was 6.

I’d push back on MSU at 26th last year as proving they have an offensive ceiling good enough to win a title.
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I am NOT pushing back on the point that you need a great offense to win a natty.

However, that particular statistical analogy I just can't stand (and will never be able to stand). The "every champion since x season has been x in offense and x in defense" arguments.

OF COURSE those teams will be top whatever in offense, defense, and have such and such KenPom rating. Because those ratings are AFTER THEY WON THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP. KenPom does not magically stop on Selection Sunday. Almost all of the top 25 teams in a given year would satisfy those requirements, had there been a national championship run in their season.

It's crazy to me how many times it gets said when filling out brackets, before the tournament. And how nintelligent minds continue to fall for it. It's the single most useless thing anyone can take stock in.
 
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#187      
NarrowJ
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
I am NOT pushing back on the point that you need a great offense to win a natty.

However, that particular statistical analogy I just can't stand (and will never be able to stand). The "every champion since x season has been x in offense and x in defense" arguments.

OF COURSE those teams will be top whatever in offense, defense, and have such and such KenPom rating. Because those ratings are AFTER THEY WON THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP. KenPom does not magically stop on Selection Sunday. Almost all of the top 25 teams in a given year would satisfy those requirements, had there been a national championship run in their season.

It's crazy to me how many times it gets said when filling out brackets, before the tournament. And how nintelligent minds continue to fall for it. It's the single most useless thing anyone can take stock in.
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Its crazy how sure of themselves people can be, yet be so so wrong.

1. Pre-Tournament data exists: your entire premise rests on the false assumption that we are trapped using "polluted" post-tournament data. Tournament game data is still data (and also: it is the most recent data that's available... I'd actually weight it heavier, if we had a choice)

2. Champions are already elite: of the last 24 national champions, 23 entered the tournament with a top 25 offense.

3. The 6-game drop in the bucket: A 6-game tournament run cannot mathematically inflate a 35-game sample size from mediocre to elite.

And guess what? If you advance to the end of a 68 team tournament containing the best teams in the sport... you're probably indeed a very good team that is assuredly worthy of it's end-of-season KP ranking. It isn't as if a 6 game title run artificially inflates their ranking, that's nuts.
 
#188      
EmeraldCityIllini
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
I am NOT pushing back on the point that you need a great offense to win a natty.

However, that particular statistical analogy I just can't stand (and will never be able to stand). The "every champion since x season has been x in offense and x in defense" arguments.

OF COURSE those teams will be top whatever in offense, defense, and have such and such KenPom rating. Because those ratings are AFTER THEY WON THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP. KenPom does not magically stop on Selection Sunday. Almost all of the top 25 teams in a given year would satisfy those requirements, had there been a national championship run in their season.

It's crazy to me how many times it gets said when filling out brackets, before the tournament. And how nintelligent minds continue to fall for it. It's the single most useless thing anyone can take stock in.
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MSU was 24th on offense going into the tournament - if you're telling us you need a great offense to win a national title, then idk what we're even talking about anyway.

This notion all the teams who make the final four rocket up the kenpom ratings from the depths of hell solely because they went 4 extra games is wild (in fact - illinois' offensive rating actually went down). They were aleady good in Kenpom 99% of the time.
 
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#189      
Fly Illini Fly!
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
I am NOT pushing back on the point that you need a great offense to win a natty.

However, that particular statistical analogy I just can't stand (and will never be able to stand). The "every champion since x season has been x in offense and x in defense" arguments.

OF COURSE those teams will be top whatever in offense, defense, and have such and such KenPom rating. Because those ratings are AFTER THEY WON THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP. KenPom does not magically stop on Selection Sunday. Almost all of the top 25 teams in a given year would satisfy those requirements, had there been a national championship run in their season.

It's crazy to me how many times it gets said when filling out brackets, before the tournament. And how nintelligent minds continue to fall for it. It's the single most useless thing anyone can take stock in.
Click to expand...
NarrowJ said:
Its crazy how sure of themselves people can be, yet be so so wrong.

1. Pre-Tournament data exists: your entire premise rests on the false assumption that we are trapped using "polluted" post-tournament data. Tournament game data is still data (and also: it is the most recent data that's available... I'd actually weight it heavier, if we had a choice)
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Just go on Torvik, and set the "end" date at Selection Sunday of the year you're investigating.

You'll be able to see all ADJ-OE and ADJ-DE ratings.
 
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#190      
skyIdub
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
I am NOT pushing back on the point that you need a great offense to win a natty.

However, that particular statistical analogy I just can't stand (and will never be able to stand). The "every champion since x season has been x in offense and x in defense" arguments.

OF COURSE those teams will be top whatever in offense, defense, and have such and such KenPom rating. Because those ratings are AFTER THEY WON THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP. KenPom does not magically stop on Selection Sunday. Almost all of the top 25 teams in a given year would satisfy those requirements, had there been a national championship run in their season.

It's crazy to me how many times it gets said when filling out brackets, before the tournament. And how nintelligent minds continue to fall for it. It's the single most useless thing anyone can take stock in.
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What in the third level of circle logic is this?🤣
 
#191      
NarrowJ
EmeraldCityIllini said:
MSU was 24th on offense going into the tournament - if you're telling us you need a great offense to win a national title, then idk what we're even talking about anyway.

This notion all the teams who make the final four rocket up the kenpom ratings from the depths of hell solely because they went 4 extra games is wild (in fact - illinois' offensive rating actually went down). They were aleady good in Kenpom 99% of the time.
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Crazy how Michigan tricked everyone into thinking they were good last year just by winning the title... those darn stat junkies fall for that stuff every time. Weren't they like 312th in efficiency going into the tourney?

*scribbles notes on pad*
 
#192      
Fly Illini Fly!
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Just go on Torvik, and set the "end" date at Selection Sunday of the year you're investigating.

You'll be able to see all ADJ-OE and ADJ-DE ratings.
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These were the top 5 offenses going into the tournament:

2281.jpg


.....

These were the top 5 offenses after the tournament:

2283.jpg
 
#195      
WhereDoWeStandWithStorr?
illini0440 said:
Just saying…I’d much rather have to figure out how to try and stop people from scoring than try to figure out how to score….
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At the end of the day, it's about your net value.

A team with the #1 offense and #15 defense will be the same quality of team as someone with the #1 defense and #15 offense.

Who wins if the two teams face off is about marchups.

Recently, we've beaten ISU and Houston - two teams with inverse strengths and weaknesses when compared to Illinois.
 
#197      
NarrowJ
WhereDoWeStandWithStorr? said:
At the end of the day, it's about your net value.

A team with the #1 offense and #15 defense will be the same quality of team as someone with the #1 defense and #15 offense.

Who wins if the two teams face off is about marchups.

Recently, we've beaten ISU and Houston - two teams with inverse strengths and weaknesses when compared to Illinois.
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Go ahead and patent this now, the committee wants a cut
 
#199      
Fly Illini Fly!
Torvik keeps track of FT% defense, which basically means how well your opponents shoot free throws against you. Illinois ranked 256th in this statistic.

In FT RATE defense, which means how often your opponents get to the FT line, Illinois ranked #1.

Penn had the #3 FT% defense in the country, holding teams to just 67.4% from the free throw stripe against them.

Illinois however, shot a pretty efficient 16/21 against them in the tournament (76%).
 
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#200      
HoopsterMan
EmeraldCityIllini said:
Since 2015, there’s only been 2 national champions outside the top 5 in offense - and even then, both those teams were still in the top 10, and Kansas itself was 6.

I’d push back on MSU at 26th last year as proving they have an offensive ceiling good enough to win a title.

Now, while the past 10+ years defensive rating hasn’t corresponded as strongly as offense (there’s a few teams who won outside the top 15, and 5 outside the top ten altogether), it’s still pretty clear you wanna firmly be inside the top 15 - and think that should be the goal for us and I don’t think at true “ceiling” that’s impossible.
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The only outliers if you go back all the way to 2002 are those two weird UConn teams and the Syracuse team that hopped on Anthony's back.
 
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