Joel Goodson
- respect my decision™
Illini Football 2023
- Status
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
The Galloping Ghost
- Washington, DC
If you invest in your program and win, they will come.
TentakilRex
- Land O Insects between Quincy-Macomb-Jacksonville
I don't where this belongs so I am posting it here and let the mods sort it out 
CHIEEEEF!!! Never mind.I don't where this belongs so I am posting it here and let the mods sort it out
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
He's totally thinking about it in the right way.
If I had to bet I would probably go against his prediction though of the share of NIL money to HS recruits going down over time rather than up.
The reason I say that is as 1. COVID bonus years wash out of the system, which currently create transfer churn out of having too many eligible college football players for too few scholarships and 2. some sort of limitations are imposed upon transferring multiple times, I think there is going to be *slightly* more normalcy of players staying at one school their whole careers. And that will make HS recruiting a more valuable NIL space.
(I will say, my reading on this has been very basketball-focused. Football is a little different. I am 1000% sure the every offseason QB NIL Carousel is here to stay. Elsewhere on the roster I'm less sure. But anyway in basketball I think we might be at peak free-for-all over the next couple offseasons after which the tide will recede a little bit. My best guess would be football is the same.)
I think I agree with the last bit here but I don't think that makes the portal and NIL balance out.
NIL will still draw the recruits, but I don't think there will be any rhyme or reason to the portal. There will be players who jump because they want to play, or players who think there is a better opportunity to develop and stay despite not having immediate playing time. It's also not like there's a players union with guaranteed minimums or contracts with production based incentives... it's just money being thrown at kids and it's still really messy.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Oh totally. And obviously coaching changes will continue to loom large.
There's going to be LOTS more transferring than was the case 20 years ago going forward indefinitely. But will it go even bigger in terms of sheer volume of players than what we're seeing on the basketball side this offseason? I'm skeptical. I could be wrong. Time will tell.
It's tough to compare, since roster size is so drastically different. I think NIL will go mostly to the "flashy" positions obviously... but the good coaches will still have to supplement that with good development and scouting.
For instance, OL who haven't played(particularly underclassmen, even talented ones) will still require a ton of developmental work, specially in P5 conferences. Transferring for playing time when you're outsized by 20 lbs could doom any potential.
The TLDR is the grass isn't always greener, even if playing time is involved.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
It will be interesting to see if a program can get smart and Moneyball-y enough for this not to be the case.
I hope it's us!
Bielema seems to have a niche that works out so far, offers early, builds a balanced roster, and find a QB with playing experience to tie it all together.
His OL production has been pretty dang good so far, at least compared to previous coaches... so I think he's finding stuff that works. Let's see if we can keep the good assistants coming though, that's the key.
One more. The Honored Symbol of commercials. Ok, I'm done.I don't where this belongs so I am posting it here and let the mods sort it out
Hearing some concerns about Altmyer. Heard he has been throwing picks almost every drive in scrimmages and a mediocre arm.
Joel Goodson
- respect my decision™
redwingillini11
White and Sixth
- North Aurora
Tie some balloons around you elephant and float off far away from here! Get this bad juju as far away from here as possible!
Yep... The only person I have ever felt the need to block!
I don't get why people are so fond of Moneyball programs. Look at the Oakland A's, the team that started it all. How often do they win? They're in last place more often than they make the playoffs.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
What decade is this?
The analytics revolution in sports has been over for years and years.
TentakilRex
- Land O Insects between Quincy-Macomb-Jacksonville
1. Since the time Moneyball, almost all of MLB teams adapted Moneyball principles including the Cardinals and the 2016 Cubs
2. Analytics have advanced so much the way that the Moneyball A's were built is as outdated as 1980s NFL offense
3. In reality, the current A's is more like another movie, Major League. They are tanking and ready to move to Las Vegas
I believe it was the late, great Big Tom Callahan Jr. who said it best: you're either growing, or you're dying. There ain't no third direction. In the sports world, it's no different, and analytics is king. You don't have to like analytics, but you're either growing as a program using them, or you're dying without them.
Ryllini
- Lombard
This Tommy Callahan?
His dad. That's Tommy Callahan III.This Tommy Callahan?
Joel Goodson
- respect my decision™
- Status