Great write up. Hard to believe it's been 40 years - I was a junior that year. A lot of characters on that team. I had no idea how bad the team doctor was - truly inexcusable
Illini Football 2023
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How did he keep the job? Surely the powers that be knew he was a butcher.
Let’s logically look at this. Kansas gave up over 35 points a game last year. We gave up not quite 13 a game. Why does everyone think our DB’s are a weakness? Granted we had 3 really good DB’s last year but we also got burnt a few times like the Indiana game. The PU game and to a certain extent the Michigan game. Much of that was that schemes that Walters and I believe that Henry will have more blitz packages as he is a more aggressive play caller than Walters. We rarely blitzed last year. We will be more active with the front 7. On offense, we will have a running back by committee but a better offensive line. It will be deeper and experienced. We will have more opportunities to run the ball with multiple players. Our receiving core is the best we have had in years. Williams will be All B1G with solid players like Washington, Bryant and I believe a breakout season coming from Beatty. Miller will be great depth when he number is called. I think with a solid O line, a relentless D who will create opportunities for the offense that we should have no problem with the non conference schedule. I am not drinking Koolade about This season as this will be Lunney’s second year and many of the returnees have a better understanding of what is expected. Henry will have a hungrier D than last year. Nicholson, Scott, Bailey with Harper will be a very formidable Backfield. The West has teams that are even except for Nebraska, PU and NW. I am very confident that we will be a 9 win team going into the Bowls.
illinidarrin
- from parts unknown
With the new TV contract, will they still have the Big Ten games on the Big Ten Network overflow channels like they did in the past or will things switch to Paramount+ and that's it? The one thing i really like about DirecTV is that you could watch 2-3 games at once through the overflow channels and i was wondering that were still going to be the case with the new TV contract?
Mr. Tibbs
- southeast DuPage
I dont know any facts here, but the good ole boy network / east central Illinois mafia wields (or did) a lot of power . With medicine, there are always indtsnces of good and bad. This guy may simply have gotten away with crappy service when he shouldnt have
Our secondary is a question mark mostly because we lost 3 players to the draft. Bailey looks like a stud, but even Sydney Brown had a down sophomore season after a promising first year.
Don’t get me wrong, I really hope you’re right about a 9 win season. I’m just not as confident, especially with a tougher than originally planned non-conference slate. We should be well tested for B1G play though.
As for my data, I’m still using Bill Connelly’s Returning FBS Production team rankings. For reference we are firmly in the middle of the country at #71 with 63% returning production, 64% on offense and 62% on defense.
And turns out I’ve looked over FAU (#3) that returns 99% of their defensive production, oh goody!
So our schedule is as follows:
Toledo #11
@ Kansas #2 (91% offensive production returns)
PSU #56
FAU #3 (99% defensive production returns)
@ Purdue #57
Nebraska #39
@ Maryland #65
Wisconsin #27
@ Minnesota #87
Indiana #41
@ Iowa #94
Northwestern #96
From a lifelong Illini fan perspective, this doesn’t fill me with warm and fuzzies heading into the year, especially the first few weeks when our new pieces are getting their first experiences as Illini. But it’s nice seeing at least 6 of our conference opponents either slightly above or below us in returning production. Granted, the later in the year we get the less this projection even matters, but it’s May and I’m bored.
We have plenty of reasons to be optimistic, a very winnable league, a program pointed up, an in your face defensive identity, and a competent coach leading it all.
Could we go 9-3 this year, God I hope so. That would be our best regular season since we went to the Rose Bowl in 2007. In Illini context, a truly historic season. Personally, I’m not getting my hopes up that high, but I sure do enjoy the ride.
Joel Goodson
- respect my decision™
DBs: while they are very green, the talent level is good and they've had at least a year under Henry. Maybe I'm parsing, but calling the unit questionable (beyond the obvious that other than Bailey and to a lesser extent Strain, the rest of the group has seen limited game action), seems a bit much. I'm pretty confident that Henry will have these kids playing well. It certainly helps that our front 7 is gonna be putting QBs under duress.
Really good take here, IMO. I believe that a 7 win regular season would show true signs that BB has this program firmly on track to consistent competitiveness and occasional outstanding seasons. I am totally on board with he and his staff being the right group to get us there, but 7 wins with as many question marks as we have this year would be a strong statement that the program is ready for consistent competence. At a minimum, another bowl eligible season is a must IMO - lacking that, questions will remain. Looking forward to this season as much as I ever have!
Compared to previous DB depth charts (excluding the recent draft picks) our athleticism is upgraded.
So maybe questionable was a poor word choice, I will concede to very green, because that is what makes me nervous. We are very very young and that could be rough couple weeks to begin the season.
Who do we have projected at nickel right now? Could Bailey play there since he’s a good tackler and good in coverage?
And the more pressure that the front 7 causes, will only make the DBs look better. It’s like a fun football carousel, this one just has Johnny Newton and Keith Randolph chasing down QB’s throwing up ducks only to be intercepted.
mhuml32
- Cincinnati, OH
They also had the 110th best defense (via total defense) last year. They have a new coach this year (Tom Herman) that will be running a very different system. Returning production will likely not mean the same starters or familiarity based on experienced snaps.
mhuml32
- Cincinnati, OH
Questionable fits, we know pretty much zip about this secondary besides (a) Bailey will be good and (b) Nicholson is likely to be average at worst. Everything else is an unknown. We do have two years of past data showing that the secondary takes a couple games to figure things out.
I believe I've heard reporters (Illini Inquirer guys & Robert) say they think Xavier Scott will be the starter at the "star" position, which is the 5th db spot
mhuml32
- Cincinnati, OH
Sport is very random, so you could be spot on in your prediction. For me, I have big concerns about that game. Jalen Daniels was the 3rd best QB last year by QBR, even including his performance after the knee injury. If Illinois can take an inexperienced secondary on the road for the first time and either win or lose close against one of the best QBs in the country in week 2, I would become very optimistic about their conference chances.
I wouldn't view that game as playing Kansas, because it's brings a lot of past performance bias into the equation. 2023 Kansas has a lot of similar success metrics as 2021 Virginia. They have a better QB than the 2022 Illinois faced all year, they are returning a boatload of their players, and their coaching staff is sticking around. The good news is the '23 Illinois team should be substantially better than the '21 version that was boat-raced against Virginia. The bad news is this will still be a road game against a team with a lot to prove they were the giant killers that started last season (when Daniels was healthy) instead of their poor finish.
J
Joel, that’s what I am beating on. The front 7 will be more active. I felt that we were too passive on D with Walters. Henry, being a former DB himself, looks to be more aggressive and will send the house in and will run more blitzes. That will help protect the young backfield. As Knox says, KU returns a lot of players but they gave up 35 points a game. I actually think we will be a better running team this year as teams won’t cheat the box because Chase is gone. There will be more room for our receivers to make plays and get yards. We will score between 26-30 points a game, an increase of 3-7 points a game.
Joel Goodson
- respect my decision™
Walters was a DB too (FS).
To be fair, Henry is going to be operating with a season's more info about the front 6/7. Also, with how good our backfield was, being conservative with the front 6/7 was the right call.
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illinidarrin
- from parts unknown
What are you basing your assertion on that Illini will blitz more this year? As Joel points out, Walters was a DB too. And not like Henry has a track record as a DC. Has he said he plans to be more aggressive?
I don’t have the faith in Love and McCray that you seem to have. If McCray can stay healthy, maybe they can surpass last year’s rushing totals — but that is a big if. It wouldn’t surprised me at all if one of those two isn’t one of the top two rushers on the year — and not because someone below them has an incredible season. Don’t get me wrong, on paper we seem to have talent on the RB depth chart. But we’ll need to see that on the field.
Regardless, I’m looking forward to the season.
Mr. Tibbs
- southeast DuPage
its just sports writers bias
I remember seeing an analysis on Illiniboard of advanced metrics.
I can’t remember which one it was (Connelly…someone else?), but whoever did the analysis was able to weight how important having carryover from year to year was for each position.
In the end, if I’m remembering correctly, DL and LBs were less impactful to a defense (in terms of returning starts) than DBs were.
Basically, it’s awesome to have studs at those positions but if they had to be replaced by somewhat equivalent talent, the drop off of defensive efficiency wouldn’t be as bad as if you had to replace the entire secondary.
As I recall, QB (naturally) was a very impactful position to have to replace on the offensive side. And maybe WR? Can’t remember.
Anyway, from my vague memory of it, it seems we are replacing many of the positions with high continuity impact.
Which is why I have pause.
First road game, good opponent QB, unknown/new secondary…all reasons to not be thinking Kansas is an auto win.
I’ll see if I can find the article.
I can’t remember which one it was (Connelly…someone else?), but whoever did the analysis was able to weight how important having carryover from year to year was for each position.
In the end, if I’m remembering correctly, DL and LBs were less impactful to a defense (in terms of returning starts) than DBs were.
Basically, it’s awesome to have studs at those positions but if they had to be replaced by somewhat equivalent talent, the drop off of defensive efficiency wouldn’t be as bad as if you had to replace the entire secondary.
As I recall, QB (naturally) was a very impactful position to have to replace on the offensive side. And maybe WR? Can’t remember.
Anyway, from my vague memory of it, it seems we are replacing many of the positions with high continuity impact.
Which is why I have pause.
First road game, good opponent QB, unknown/new secondary…all reasons to not be thinking Kansas is an auto win.
I’ll see if I can find the article.
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