I don't want to be the big ten Vanderbilt
Illini Football 2023
- Status
yup.
If the B1G west was still a thing going forward, 5-7 would be a disappointment, but could be overcome with continued development. We've been a mediocre sized fish in a small pond, and the B1G is digging a channel to open that pond up so that we have to swim with several very large sharks going forward.
If they keep Purdue and NU as protected rivals, that should help somewhat, but we're still looking at playing 3 out of OSU, Mich, PSU, Oregon, USC, and Wash most years (2 rarely if we are lucky).
Leaves 4 games of UCLA/Wis/Iowa/MSU/Minn/Maryland/Neb/Rutgers/IN
Best case scenario right now would be 2-0 vs rivals
0-3 vs powerhouses
2-2 vs rest of the schedule
4-5 record
We need to continue to develop, but also bring in some DUDES to get towards the top half of the B1G and on good years be able to knock off one of the big boys.
We're not OSU or USC, but as a fan, it would be cool to at least COMPETE to be part of the 12 team playoff every 3-4 years.
For that to happen, we need momentum.
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Agree. Good big picture view here. We can no longer accept "We're Illinois, that's just the way it is." The administration and many fans have made the commitment, and I know BB has as well. Could not be happier with him as the face of the program; but this year has to be one where last year's momentum is, at least, not diminished.
Battle89
- Cary-Grove, the better Trojan team
MustangWally
- Mayfield
That spot is reserved for Northwestern.
Illini92and96
- Austin, TX
Agree. We'll need to adopt an SEC non-conference type schedule to boost our record and bowl chances. 3-0 out of conference and 3-6 in conference at worst.
I hope so, but they have been to two conference championship games
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I am an eternal optimist at heart ... I will literally never not believe that Illini football has potential to at least become a shadow of what basketball has been over the years. There are just too many factors in our favor that more successful schools like Washington State, Iowa State, Kansas State, etc. just do not have. Instate recruiting, a huge alumni base, a big instate population and no Power Five "Illinois State" to compete with for fans, brand new facilities, Big Ten TV money, etc. So, I'll rationalize it and move on and try to get excited for next season. I will definitely still believe Bret is the best coach available to us, and I will back him 110%.
With that said, it would really depress me ... not so much because I would lose faith in all of the things I posted above but rather because I fear it would be another VERY important nail in our coffin as far as even more fans jumping off the bandwagon. Imagine if we were having these discussions about "relegation" or some schools eventually getting "left behind" in conference realignment circa 1989. Would literally ANYBODY question the Illini's viability at the big boy table?! 70k+ packing Memorial Stadium every week to watch a great team?! No. Well, disappointment in the 1990s left our fan base where it was in 2000, disappointment in 2002 left our fan base where it was in 2006, disappointment in 2008 and 2009 left our fan base where it was in 2012 and the futility of the Beckman and Lovie Eras left our fan base where it was when Bret got here - a shaken shell that had been hollowed out worse than any fan base in the Big Ten save Northwestern. We cannot afford another setback, ESPECIALLY after the amazing progress of the previous two years.
Let's go bowling!!
They did indeed. But I don’t think any team left on the schedule is shaking in their boots with the thought of playing the Illini after our 4 games.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
TV ratings came out this week, and unfortunately we cannot really know when Illinois, Nebraska, Indiana, Minnesota or Northwestern drew as far as viewers, as they all played on BTN or BTN Alternate at the same time as another game. You can make educated guesses, of course, but nothing concrete. Here are the Big Ten games, as well as those of future Big Ten members:
1) 10.03 million for #19 Colorado at #10 Oregon (2:30 pm on ABC) ... Deion ratings show rolls on!
2) 9.98 million for #6 Ohio State at #9 Notre Dame (6:30 pm on NBC)
3) 2.75 million for #24 Iowa at #7 Penn State (6:30 pm on CBS)
4) 2.63 million for #5 USC at Arizona State (9:30 pm on FOX)
5) 1.94 million for Rutgers at #2 Michigan (11:00 am on BTN)
6) 1.32 million for #22 UCLA at #11 Utah (2:30 pm on FOX)
7) 1.24 million for Maryland at Michigan State (2:30 pm on NBC)
8) 1.19 million for Wisconsin at Purdue (Friday at 6:00 pm on FS1)
9) 1.16 million for Cal at #8 Washington (9:30 pm on ESPN)
10) 727k for Louisiana Tech at Nebraska OR Florida Atlantic at Illinois (2:30 pm on BTN)
11) 378k for Minnesota at Northwestern OR Akron at Indiana (6:30 pm on BTN)
A couple of interesting notes:
- Colorado remains an absolute phenom ... averaging 8.83 million viewers through three games. It will be interesting what happens to the Deion hype if they sort of collapse after the Oregon beatdown, but I suspect their ratings will remain high, especially given that stat that CU viewership is up a crazy percentage in predominantly Black households.
- Interesting that Illinois/PSU drew 3.22 million while Iowa/PSU drew 2.75 million in primetime on CBS. Iowa/PSU had to compete with OSU/Notre Dame, so that probably made a difference, but Illinois/PSU shared a window with LSU and Florida State, so that is also some stiff competition from two games.
- Speaking of Illinois/PSU, our 3.22 million was significantly better than anything the network had this week ... can't always have the Buffs! USC/ASU pulled 2.63 million, Oklahoma/Cincinnati pulled 2.17 million, Oregon State/WSU pulled 1.48 million and UCLA/Utah pulled 1.32 million.
- Just another example of staying off of ESPNU ... Mizzou hosted Memphis in St. Louis for its grand triumphant return to the Dome at America's Center in front of 45k fans in actual attendance, and the broadcast reached a whopping 181k due to ESPNU being a ratings graveyard. They were almost doubled up by Georgia Tech/Wake Forest on The CW, and Air Force/San Jose State had three times the viewers on FS1.
I acknowledge I am a way bigger nerd about this than most, but I am bummed our game vs. Purdue will be on Peacock, and therefore (to my knowledge) the ratings won't be made available. I will, however, be really curious to see what we can pull on a Friday night at FS1 vs. Nebraska in two weeks. The rest of our games are all TBD, so our TV/time slots will depend on how much we are winning!
1) 10.03 million for #19 Colorado at #10 Oregon (2:30 pm on ABC) ... Deion ratings show rolls on!
2) 9.98 million for #6 Ohio State at #9 Notre Dame (6:30 pm on NBC)
3) 2.75 million for #24 Iowa at #7 Penn State (6:30 pm on CBS)
4) 2.63 million for #5 USC at Arizona State (9:30 pm on FOX)
5) 1.94 million for Rutgers at #2 Michigan (11:00 am on BTN)
6) 1.32 million for #22 UCLA at #11 Utah (2:30 pm on FOX)
7) 1.24 million for Maryland at Michigan State (2:30 pm on NBC)
8) 1.19 million for Wisconsin at Purdue (Friday at 6:00 pm on FS1)
9) 1.16 million for Cal at #8 Washington (9:30 pm on ESPN)
10) 727k for Louisiana Tech at Nebraska OR Florida Atlantic at Illinois (2:30 pm on BTN)
11) 378k for Minnesota at Northwestern OR Akron at Indiana (6:30 pm on BTN)
A couple of interesting notes:
- Colorado remains an absolute phenom ... averaging 8.83 million viewers through three games. It will be interesting what happens to the Deion hype if they sort of collapse after the Oregon beatdown, but I suspect their ratings will remain high, especially given that stat that CU viewership is up a crazy percentage in predominantly Black households.
- Interesting that Illinois/PSU drew 3.22 million while Iowa/PSU drew 2.75 million in primetime on CBS. Iowa/PSU had to compete with OSU/Notre Dame, so that probably made a difference, but Illinois/PSU shared a window with LSU and Florida State, so that is also some stiff competition from two games.
- Speaking of Illinois/PSU, our 3.22 million was significantly better than anything the network had this week ... can't always have the Buffs! USC/ASU pulled 2.63 million, Oklahoma/Cincinnati pulled 2.17 million, Oregon State/WSU pulled 1.48 million and UCLA/Utah pulled 1.32 million.
- Just another example of staying off of ESPNU ... Mizzou hosted Memphis in St. Louis for its grand triumphant return to the Dome at America's Center in front of 45k fans in actual attendance, and the broadcast reached a whopping 181k due to ESPNU being a ratings graveyard. They were almost doubled up by Georgia Tech/Wake Forest on The CW, and Air Force/San Jose State had three times the viewers on FS1.
I acknowledge I am a way bigger nerd about this than most, but I am bummed our game vs. Purdue will be on Peacock, and therefore (to my knowledge) the ratings won't be made available. I will, however, be really curious to see what we can pull on a Friday night at FS1 vs. Nebraska in two weeks. The rest of our games are all TBD, so our TV/time slots will depend on how much we are winning!
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
And this includes a game where Luke threw 4 picks
Yeah, and when one considers that he's faced the toughest slate of opponents and also has the worst offensive line in front of him, he's way up there. We got an absolute steal in him and he absolutely passes the eye test. All we need to do is give him protection, as when we have, he's looked surgical. He can win us a division this year, but we've got to give him a chance to do so.
Cade McNamara looks like a dud?
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I really never thought I would think all this team had to fix was the "simple things" (i.e., taking care of your QB, not turning over the ball, etc.) in order to win the West, but here we are! We have the pieces to actually be pretty good, so I hope we are just continuing the process of coming together. We have shown flashes...
Fourth Quarter vs. Toledo: Won
Second Half at Kansas: Won 16-6. Defense gave up two field goals and forced two turnovers - a fumble and an interception. Offense scored two touchdowns - 5 plays for 75 yards and 11 plays for 80 yards. Unfortunately, we threw two interceptions, as well.
"Middle" of the Game vs. Penn State: After PSU's touchdown to go up 13-0, our defense kept them out of the end zone for 6 straight drives, including forcing PSU to punt 4 out of those 6 drives. Meanwhile, the offense was able to get a touchdown and briefly be down just 6 points and then a manageable 8 points and in field goal range in the third quarter. Luke completed a 32-yardp !!! to Isaiah to get us a first down at the PSU 25-yard line, and this seriously looked like a team that could take a punch from a top 10 (top 5?) team and stay in the ring. Luke's next interception that was returned obviously killed our momentum, but even then the defense held firm for two more drives to keep us within one score until almost the end of the third quarter. When you think about the fact that our first FOUR drives were 2 interceptions, 1 fumble and 1 missed FG, it's frustrating but encouraging how we were hanging in there ... eventually, of course, we ran out of gas.
Second and Third Quarters vs. FAU: Won 23-0. I went to the Cubs game so I could not watch the beginning, but it seems after a sluggish start leading to a 10-0 deficit, we kicked it into gear. Again, the point here is not that a sluggish start is okay ... it's merely to point out that consistency and mental focus (rather than personnel or potential) seem to be this team's issue. And considering what we lost, it's understandable for fans to be cautiously optimistic that we can fix that (at least to some extent) as we keep playing more games.
Purdue is a "terrifying" game because I am an Illini fan who is used to seeing us blow opportunities to move this program forward, but ... honestly, I would rather have that game this week than any other. I'm sure if we had Northwestern or Indiana at home, we might get off to another slow start. At the same time, I don't think we're ready for Wisconsin or a trip to Iowa City. This team has an excellent chance to pick up a road win over a division rival with plenty of backstory to motivate them. Win or lose, they will "show who they are" this week, IMO ... but they REALLY have to win.
I find it interesting where our mindset is as a fanbase and the remainder of our schedule. The Big Ten West is there for the taking and we are well positioned in our remaining 8 games. Only Maryland should be a clear favorite. Let us compare to how they used to schedule and what we were up against in the early 70's
If you look back to the Blackman era, 1971-1976, it is crazy how competitive Illinois was relative to the rest of the Big Ten. Blackman has an overall mark of 29-36-1. That included 0-12 against OSU and Michigan, the height of the Big 2/ Little 8.
He was 24-23-1 in Big Ten play or 24-11-1 against every team outside of OSU and Michigan, which is the highest game-winning % of any program in conference play outside of OSU/UM during that time period.
This was before scholly limits where the bluebloods could bring in 75+ freshman classes.
Here is where it gets really crazy, 41% of his games were against teams ranked in the Top 20 for a total of 27 games, where he went 4-23. The average ranking of teams the Illini played in those 27 games was 8.85. Usually, they scheduled 5 to 6 ranked teams, with only getting a break 1 year where only 2 were on the schedule, of course, they were ranked 1 and 4.
During one 5 week stretch in 1972, they played #1 USC, #14 Washington, #16 Penn St. #4 Ohio St., and # 6 Michigan in consecutive weeks, of course going 0-5 . In consecutive weeks
Also, only 1 team went to a bowl, the Rose Bowl from the Big Ten.
Of course, we fired Blackman, to bring in Hall of Fame Alcoholic Gary Moeller for a 3 year debacle. White righted the ship, but we are so stung by the legacies of the Moellers, Teppers and Beckmans of the world that we look at things through a negative prism
If you look back to the Blackman era, 1971-1976, it is crazy how competitive Illinois was relative to the rest of the Big Ten. Blackman has an overall mark of 29-36-1. That included 0-12 against OSU and Michigan, the height of the Big 2/ Little 8.
He was 24-23-1 in Big Ten play or 24-11-1 against every team outside of OSU and Michigan, which is the highest game-winning % of any program in conference play outside of OSU/UM during that time period.
This was before scholly limits where the bluebloods could bring in 75+ freshman classes.
Here is where it gets really crazy, 41% of his games were against teams ranked in the Top 20 for a total of 27 games, where he went 4-23. The average ranking of teams the Illini played in those 27 games was 8.85. Usually, they scheduled 5 to 6 ranked teams, with only getting a break 1 year where only 2 were on the schedule, of course, they were ranked 1 and 4.
During one 5 week stretch in 1972, they played #1 USC, #14 Washington, #16 Penn St. #4 Ohio St., and # 6 Michigan in consecutive weeks, of course going 0-5 . In consecutive weeks
Also, only 1 team went to a bowl, the Rose Bowl from the Big Ten.
Of course, we fired Blackman, to bring in Hall of Fame Alcoholic Gary Moeller for a 3 year debacle. White righted the ship, but we are so stung by the legacies of the Moellers, Teppers and Beckmans of the world that we look at things through a negative prism
Why he chose to play for Brian Ferentz in that offense is baffling.
Also, Blackman went 5-13 in non-conference games, but 12 of the 18 games the Illini played out of conference were against teams ranked in the Top 20. Talk about setting a coach up to fail!
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
A reminder to not necessarily get down on this year's team here. I just said aloud to my wife, "MAN, I wish we could have had last year's team with this year's schedule." And while I still kind of agree with that statement ... let's remember that last year's team laid absolute eggs vs. Indiana, Michigan State and Purdue - involving our OWN mistakes, in addition to being screwed by the refs in those games. The optimist in me says we are getting some of our worst games out of the way, and we really only need to make RELATIVELY minor adjustments to start scoring some wins over our Big Ten foes.
Trying to scratch and claw to 6 and a terrible bowl game that nobody cares about when our schedule is this bad is a bummer in year 3.
Considering our recent history, a Year Three like this sounds pretty good. I’m guessing 6-7 wins, but maybe 8. We’re on track for a durable turnaround. It takes time to build a solid foundation but we have all the right pieces for it. If you believe it can be done quickly, watch Colorado for the rest of their Year One.
I'll say this - the first 4 games have not been great, but 2-2 was a pretty realistic outcome for our 4 first for games. The good news is that the rest of our schedule does not look daunting, so IF we can improve our line play and clean some things up, we could compete for the B1G West.
If, however, we do have to scratch and claw for 6 wins, it will be a major bummer.
What Is Quarterback Rating (QBR) In Football? Definition & Meaning | SportsLingo
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A qbr above 60 is considered excellent
illini80
- Forgottonia
The Penn State game was an outlier. I’m not sure why he played so poorly that game, but overall he has been above expectations. He’s a guy you can build an offense around.What Is Quarterback Rating (QBR) In Football? Definition & Meaning | SportsLingo
Read the Quarterback Rating (QBR) definition and meaning now on SportsLingo. Learn all the different meanings, abbreviations and definitions for what is a Quarterback Rating (QBR).
A qbr above 60 is considered excellent
Ransom Stoddard
Ordained Dudeist Priest
- Bloomington, IL
Penn State has a B1G quality D-Line and they pressured him all.day.long. I fear for similar results when we play teams with significant advantages over our O-line.
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