I watched 2-5. Great comeback in 2, but they're were straight up dominated in the last 3 sets. Their setting is horrific. We have some good hitters, but they are consistently having to make adjustments because the ball is rarely in the right spot.Tough L yesterday. I was only able to watch sets 1 and 2 — that was either a very wise decision, or you all can blame me for another 3-2 loss.
They were swept by Oklahoma and ND. They lost both matches against USC and UCF. Concerned yet?For those concerned about the Illini loss to EIU in the exhibition, EIU just lost their first match of the season yesterday to Mizzou. The Panthers had started the season 10-0.
You need to make some corrections on your "next match" column - Gators next game is v TAMU, not USF, ASU is NOT v FGCU, but rather Stanford, etcI've got the Illini at #91 in the latest run of NOVA. Up a bit from the 110s range a couple of weeks ago, which is good. Another new-ish ratings system that was passed along to me has us at #80.
The MSU game went about as expected. They're a better team by a little bit, but home court advantage makes things pretty close, and the resulting game was *super* close (final score on total points was 112-109 Illini).
For a quick look inside how the ratings work, here's a preview of our next game - home against Penn State on Friday.
Penn State - NOVA +9.57 (14th)
Illinois - NOVA +3.14 (91st)
NOVA ratings are intended to be additive, with home court worth roughly +1.4, so to assess the matchup requires just some simple math:
3.14 (IL) - 9.57 (PSU) + 1.4 (home) = -5.03
This number represents the expected point differential over 50 points, which is roughly one set. In other words, the "expected" set score on Friday would be a 20-25 loss - Penn State scoring 5 more points than Illinois.
I haven't yet run an analysis to estimate the normal amount of variation from set to set. I'm guessing with an expected set score of 25-20 we'd be most likely to lose in 3 sets, but there might be enough variation that a 3-set loss is also less than 50% likely.
In either case, great opportunity to prove me wrong and grab a big home win!
You need to make some corrections on your "next match" column - Gators next game is v TAMU, not USF, ASU is NOT v FGCU, but rather Stanford, etc
Awesome, thanks! I see where you shared this on volleytalk. That's a pretty knowledgeable group right there@aiwpfan - the issue you pointed out should be fixed. I added the "I" column to note where there are games from past days that have not been imported into the rankings/data. Looks like there are about 16 of those at the moment. Otherwise, the "next games" column has been fixed to exclude any games from past dates, and to show the day of the next game.