Illini Volleyball 2023

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#53      

WWWWRocU

Herndon, VA
I thought we usually packed Huff Gym with an easy 93K attendance for our volleyball team. Didn't JW authorize an expansion to the facility to handle the throng?
 
#54      

Tophe

Middle TN
Today's Illini match is on ESPN+

(The link on fightingillini.com is wrong)
 
#56      

danielb927

Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
Looked like a 3 set loss to Notre Dame last night. Close-ish sets but didn't sound like the match was really in doubt.

I'm hoping to get my D-I volleyball rankings back up and running soon. Now that the season is 5-6 games old for most teams, regression can do a decent job of sorting out the quality of teams. But so far I'm having some trouble with the NCAA's box scores not loading in correctly, so stay tuned...
 
#57      
Any word on why Nunge isn’t playing yet?

Edit: My bad - looks like she did appear in the match but didn’t do much.
 
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#59      
Looked rough in the first set. I didn't look at the stats, but it sure seemed that getting Caroline & Jessica back in the mix settled down the service ace to error game, as well as getting Bradley out of rotation early.
 
#63      

danielb927

Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
Been posting this on twitter but wanted to share here too. I've made a few improvements to the ratings page since the year started and hope to keep improving it as the season goes along. Things like predictions for upcoming matches, team pages, etc... although I'm not sure how many of these things I'll get to this season.


The current state of the B1G is, unfortunately, not too pretty for us. But we played a lot better yesterday against USC than we had so far, so here's hoping that's a trend.

1694804095365.png
 
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#64      

danielb927

Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
Tough L yesterday. I was only able to watch sets 1 and 2 — that was either a very wise decision, or you all can blame me for another 3-2 loss.
 
#65      

KBLEE

Montgomery, IL
Tough L yesterday. I was only able to watch sets 1 and 2 — that was either a very wise decision, or you all can blame me for another 3-2 loss.
I watched 2-5. Great comeback in 2, but they're were straight up dominated in the last 3 sets. Their setting is horrific. We have some good hitters, but they are consistently having to make adjustments because the ball is rarely in the right spot.
 
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#67      
For those concerned about the Illini loss to EIU in the exhibition, EIU just lost their first match of the season yesterday to Mizzou. The Panthers had started the season 10-0.
They were swept by Oklahoma and ND. They lost both matches against USC and UCF. Concerned yet?
 
#70      

danielb927

Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
I've got the Illini at #91 in the latest run of NOVA. Up a bit from the 110s range a couple of weeks ago, which is good. Another new-ish ratings system that was passed along to me has us at #80.

The MSU game went about as expected. They're a better team by a little bit, but home court advantage makes things pretty close, and the resulting game was *super* close (final score on total points was 112-109 Illini).

For a quick look inside how the ratings work, here's a preview of our next game - home against Penn State on Friday.

Penn State - NOVA +9.57 (14th)
Illinois - NOVA +3.14 (91st)

NOVA ratings are intended to be additive, with home court worth roughly +1.4, so to assess the matchup requires just some simple math:

3.14 (IL) - 9.57 (PSU) + 1.4 (home) = -5.03

This number represents the expected point differential over 50 points, which is roughly one set. In other words, the "expected" set score on Friday would be a 20-25 loss - Penn State scoring 5 more points than Illinois.

I haven't yet run an analysis to estimate the normal amount of variation from set to set. I'm guessing with an expected set score of 25-20 we'd be most likely to lose in 3 sets, but there might be enough variation that a 3-set loss is also less than 50% likely.

In either case, great opportunity to prove me wrong and grab a big home win!
 
#71      

aiwpfan

Springfield, Il
I've got the Illini at #91 in the latest run of NOVA. Up a bit from the 110s range a couple of weeks ago, which is good. Another new-ish ratings system that was passed along to me has us at #80.

The MSU game went about as expected. They're a better team by a little bit, but home court advantage makes things pretty close, and the resulting game was *super* close (final score on total points was 112-109 Illini).

For a quick look inside how the ratings work, here's a preview of our next game - home against Penn State on Friday.

Penn State - NOVA +9.57 (14th)
Illinois - NOVA +3.14 (91st)

NOVA ratings are intended to be additive, with home court worth roughly +1.4, so to assess the matchup requires just some simple math:

3.14 (IL) - 9.57 (PSU) + 1.4 (home) = -5.03

This number represents the expected point differential over 50 points, which is roughly one set. In other words, the "expected" set score on Friday would be a 20-25 loss - Penn State scoring 5 more points than Illinois.

I haven't yet run an analysis to estimate the normal amount of variation from set to set. I'm guessing with an expected set score of 25-20 we'd be most likely to lose in 3 sets, but there might be enough variation that a 3-set loss is also less than 50% likely.

In either case, great opportunity to prove me wrong and grab a big home win!
You need to make some corrections on your "next match" column - Gators next game is v TAMU, not USF, ASU is NOT v FGCU, but rather Stanford, etc
 
#72      

danielb927

Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
You need to make some corrections on your "next match" column - Gators next game is v TAMU, not USF, ASU is NOT v FGCU, but rather Stanford, etc

Thanks for the heads up, I hadn't caught those. I've been having some trouble this year with raw data where already-completed games are still marked "pre-game" on the NCAA website. Taking a look now, the Gators are actually 10-1, not 9-1, and beat USF back on August 26. But for some reason that game's not marked as "final" and in the API where I grab the data, the scores end in the middle of the 4th set (it was a 5-set match).

Unfortunately I don't have a good work-around for fixing individual games like this yet. It shouldn't make a huge difference in the overall ratings now that we're 10+ games into the season, but it may be a while before the game-by-game info is 100% correct. I do appreciate the help a ton, it's extremely useful to have others helping to spot issues!
 
#73      

danielb927

Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
@aiwpfan - the issue you pointed out should be fixed. I added the "I" column to note where there are games from past days that have not been imported into the rankings/data. Looks like there are about 16 of those at the moment. Otherwise, the "next games" column has been fixed to exclude any games from past dates, and to show the day of the next game.
 
#74      

aiwpfan

Springfield, Il
@aiwpfan - the issue you pointed out should be fixed. I added the "I" column to note where there are games from past days that have not been imported into the rankings/data. Looks like there are about 16 of those at the moment. Otherwise, the "next games" column has been fixed to exclude any games from past dates, and to show the day of the next game.
Awesome, thanks! I see where you shared this on volleytalk. That's a pretty knowledgeable group right there
 
#75      
Sweep over Iowa looked good. Competition down , but we did show a coordinated effort. Not one Iowa block until the 3 set.
 
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