Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Nice prediction!
Illinois #10 in 2/5 AP Poll
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Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Comparing KenPom to the AP poll, the most overrated teams in the AP Poll:
Kansas: +9
Kentucky: +7
Florida Atlantic: +7
North Carolina: +5
Duke: +5
Interesting.
Kansas: +9
Kentucky: +7
Florida Atlantic: +7
North Carolina: +5
Duke: +5
Interesting.
Is this a normalization or reflection due in part to Portal/NIL leveling the field somewhat ??? FAU being the non-traditional outlier here. Makes you wonder ...
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
4/5 over-valued teams are blue-bloods, and the other is coming off of tournament success. Very standard practice for the polls to over-value these two types of teams.
Also, Kansas was preseason #1, Duke was preseason #2, FAU #10, and Kentucky #16.
So it also shows the unwillingness of the AP voters to admit when they are wrong and how a high preseason ranking can really carry you throughout the year.
MDchicago
- Lake Norman NC
Yep, and all 5 are middle of the pack (Kansas, FAU), below average (Kentucky), or well below average (Duke and UNC, along with Illinois) in KenPom Luck %. That is, they don't happen to have a win or two more than their KenPom efficiency rating would suggest. Additional support that it is subjective overvaluation by voters for the reasons mentioned.
Of the top 25 KenPom teams, Purdue, Dayton and UConn are the only three that are in the top quartile in terms of KenPom Luck %.
hooraybeer
- Pittsburgh, PA
weird week of scheduling. almost every top 25 team plays tomorrow
GrayGhost77
- Centennial, CO
Unless one of teams 6-9 loses tomorrow I don't see us jumping anybody this week even if we beat MSU (unless we just absolutely crush them somehow, which I'm not opposed to).
IlliniRunIn07
- Tampa, FL
All of this assumes that we beat MSU tomorrow, which of course is far from a guarantee... I am wondering if Kansas' early week loss is enough for us to jump them, but probably not. If they lose to Baylor tomorrow, we absolutely jump them. I think we jump Houston if they lose to Cinci. I also would not be surprised to see AZ lose @ Colorado either. Those are really the only 3 teams ahead of us I can see losing tomorrow, but of course I am sure there will be some random upset in that mix as well.
There have been many comments this week in this and the games thread about seeding for 2/3 vs. 4/5 and other teams losing and does it or doesn't it matter. For example, did Dayton losing help us? It absolutely does. Personally I think 3 is significantly better than 4. I'd rather play UConn in F4 or E8 than in S16. 2 and 3 are the same as are 4 and 5, it is matchups that count. So we are vying for top 12. Let's concede 5 of those spots to Net 1-5: Houston, UConn, PU, AZ, TN. There are 16-18 teams vying for the last 7 spots. As teams have 1, 2, 3 or more losses, at some point they drop out. Are we top 10? Yes we have warts and yes we need to keep improving, but everyone has warts and a number of the other teams don't have many great wins like us, perhaps more than in other years for top seeds. Do we have to go 9-1 or 8-2 to get top 12? Not necessarily. Of course I would rather control our destiny than relying on other teams losing but it surely helps us. So yes, the other teams below losing helps.
Illinicpa14
- Chicago
I think if you knew for a fact we’d win one of at Wisconsin or vs Purdue you’d feel a lot better of the top 3 seed chances.
With the way the schedule is laid out - short of winning 6 in a row up until that point, we’re not really going to know our likely outcome.
Interested to see where they put us tomorrow. Sixty percent of the top 25 lost to unranked opponents again this week. Some of these games were not close. Crazy season so far.
#3 UNC lost to Clemson @ home
#4 Kansas lost @ Kansas State
#6 Tennessee lost @ Texas A&M
#10 Illinois lost @ Michigan State
#11 Wisconsin lost @ Michigan & @Rutgers
#12 Auburn lost @ Florida
#17 Kentucky lost to Gonzaga @ home
#18 Dayton lost @ VCU
#19 Creighton lost @ Providence
#20 Florida Atlantic lost @ UAB
#21 BYU lost @ Oklahoma
#22 Utah State lost vs Nevada @home
#24 San Diego State lost @ Nevada
#25 New Mexico lost to UNLV @ home
#3 UNC lost to Clemson @ home
#4 Kansas lost @ Kansas State
#6 Tennessee lost @ Texas A&M
#10 Illinois lost @ Michigan State
#11 Wisconsin lost @ Michigan & @Rutgers
#12 Auburn lost @ Florida
#17 Kentucky lost to Gonzaga @ home
#18 Dayton lost @ VCU
#19 Creighton lost @ Providence
#20 Florida Atlantic lost @ UAB
#21 BYU lost @ Oklahoma
#22 Utah State lost vs Nevada @home
#24 San Diego State lost @ Nevada
#25 New Mexico lost to UNLV @ home
pruman91
- Paducah, Ky
My uninformed and useless opinion is # 12 , with so many top 25 losing also.......wisky , I think will have the biggest drop , with now having lost 4 in a row.......
JMHO.................
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Wisconsin is in mini-freefall, and should fall out of top 25 (but they probably won't), especially after deciding not to play yesterday.
I'll go 13. South Carolina, Iowa St and Alabama all jump in front of us IMO
South Carolina and Iowa state should make big jumps with winning both games.
With everyone else around us losing at least once…are we still top 15 today?
With everyone else around us losing at least once…are we still top 15 today?
IlliniMike_Aurora
Straight outta Champaign
i'll go with an 8-way tie for 12th
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