Illinois #14 in 1/29 AP Poll

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#76      

Battle89

Battle89
Battle89
illini80 said:
I’ll give it try:

The refs really screw us.
Underwood outcoached, AGAIN!
Glad (player x) won’t be back.
We tried to give it away.
Next year we’ll be lucky to win 10 games.

🙂
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Yeah don't forget post game.

How much are we going to have to pay Brad now?
I can't believe {school X} and {school Y} are sniffing around Chester and TA now...and they are listening!
Indy says we are top-15 in hoops NIL but we cannot sustain this success unless we get to top-5.
We're dead next year, {player that got hot in the tournament} will surely go pro now.
 
#78      

Roundball Sage

R
Roundball Sage
jjv0004 said:
Welcome to the world we live in. People will complain about everything.
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I think we are now complaining about... complaining. That squares the circle.

Complaining means that we think a thing should be a certain way but it isn't that way now. And the problem is that assumption that things have to a certain way. That is a human pitfall. Things don't have to be any certain thing. BUT...

There is only one thing in this World that HAS to be a certain way. And that is, that the Illini forever and always dominate college basketball and force everyone else to submit to their will.

That's it. That is not negotiable. The only rule that Universe must live by.

And that the Illini perk up their interior defense. Which is an off-shoot to the rule above.
 
#79      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
Well, we didn't play a very good team, but we still won handily in a Quad 1 Big Ten road game. Additionally, #10 Kentucky dropped a home game to unranked Florida last night, so one would THINK we'd at least move up to #13, but I'll never trust the pollsters to properly penalize a Blue Blood, lol. These are the remaining games from teams ranked above us this week:

#6 Wisconsin at Nebraska
Cal at #11 Arizona
Butler at #13 Creighton
#1 UConn at St. John's
#9 Marquette at Georgetown
#4 Houston at #8 Kansas
#7 Duke at #3 North Carolina
#12 Iowa State at #18 Baylor
#5 Tennessee at #10 Kentucky
#2 Purdue at #6 Wisconsin
Stanford at #11 Arizona

Kind of difficult to gauge what teams we might pass if we beat Nebraska.

- We'd certainly pass #13 Creighton if they lose at home to Butler ... go Bulldogs!! Also my sister's alma mater, so I always cheer for them. Hinkel is a MUST visit for all hoops fans, BTW!
- We'd probably pass #12 Iowa State if they lose at #18 Baylor.
- Obviously, if #11 Arizona drops even one game, we are passing them ... but that's highly unlikely.
- We SHOULD pass #10 Kentucky anyway (we went from #10 to #14 for a similar loss to Maryland...), but we'd definitely pass them if they lose again.
- If #9 Marquette drops one to Georgetown, we'd definitely pass them. However, I think keeping them a Quad 1 home loss is more important.
- We probably do not pass #8 Kansas if they lose to #4 Houston, but I guess who knows?
- Probably not passing #7 Duke, even if we should.
- If #6 Wisconsin loses twice, we might pass them? Difficult to tell, but I doubt a loss to #2 Purdue would drop them THAT much, so it depends how much the pollsters think a loss at Nebraska is worth.
- If #5 Tennessee loses twice (including a bad loss at home to South Carolina earlier this week), I guess they could theoretically drop below us.
- No way #4 Houston drops below us.
- Even with two losses this week, I cannot see #3 North Carolina dropping below us.
- No way #2 Purdue drops below us.
- No way #1 UConn drops below us.

So, I think if we beat Nebraska, we would fall anywhere between #13 and #9 depending on how wacky the rest of the week is.
 
#80      

RML

R
RML
illini80 said:
I’ll give it try:

The refs really screw us.
Underwood outcoached, AGAIN!
Glad (player x) won’t be back.
We tried to give it away.
Next year we’ll be lucky to win 10 games.

🙂
Click to expand...
Player Y should have gotten more tick.
How could the media have left player Z off the all-defensive team?
So ridiculous that announcer A kept harping about how wonderful player B from the other side is.
 
#81      

Second place is 1st loser

S
Second place is 1st loser
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Well, we didn't play a very good team, but we still won handily in a Quad 1 Big Ten road game. Additionally, #10 Kentucky dropped a home game to unranked Florida last night, so one would THINK we'd at least move up to #13, but I'll never trust the pollsters to properly penalize a Blue Blood, lol. These are the remaining games from teams ranked above us this week:

#6 Wisconsin at Nebraska
Cal at #11 Arizona
Butler at #13 Creighton
#1 UConn at St. John's
#9 Marquette at Georgetown
#4 Houston at #8 Kansas
#7 Duke at #3 North Carolina
#12 Iowa State at #18 Baylor
#5 Tennessee at #10 Kentucky
#2 Purdue at #6 Wisconsin
Stanford at #11 Arizona

Kind of difficult to gauge what teams we might pass if we beat Nebraska.

- We'd certainly pass #13 Creighton if they lose at home to Butler ... go Bulldogs!! Also my sister's alma mater, so I always cheer for them. Hinkel is a MUST visit for all hoops fans, BTW!
- We'd probably pass #12 Iowa State if they lose at #18 Baylor.
- Obviously, if #11 Arizona drops even one game, we are passing them ... but that's highly unlikely.
- We SHOULD pass #10 Kentucky anyway (we went from #10 to #14 for a similar loss to Maryland...), but we'd definitely pass them if they lose again.
- If #9 Marquette drops one to Georgetown, we'd definitely pass them. However, I think keeping them a Quad 1 home loss is more important.
- We probably do not pass #8 Kansas if they lose to #4 Houston, but I guess who knows?
- Probably not passing #7 Duke, even if we should.
- If #6 Wisconsin loses twice, we might pass them? Difficult to tell, but I doubt a loss to #2 Purdue would drop them THAT much, so it depends how much the pollsters think a loss at Nebraska is worth.
- If #5 Tennessee loses twice (including a bad loss at home to South Carolina earlier this week), I guess they could theoretically drop below us.
- No way #4 Houston drops below us.
- Even with two losses this week, I cannot see #3 North Carolina dropping below us.
- No way #2 Purdue drops below us.
- No way #1 UConn drops below us.

So, I think if we beat Nebraska, we would fall anywhere between #13 and #9 depending on how wacky the rest of the week is.
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This probably isn't going to be a popular opinion, but I prefer being ranked where we belong. We have great metrics, but they're obviously skewed by margin of victory vs who we actually beat. These last couple of weeks have been a struggle. We lost to Maryland at home, we lost to NW, we escaped IU at home, but we did play well vs OSU(though they are bad right now).

Our truly quality wins are nil. We shouldn't be passing up any of the teams noted above because each and every one of them have really quality wins. Someone made the comment that Northwestern was the #3 team in the league RIGHT NOW. They beat us, they flat out blasted OSU and they should have beaten Purdue for the second time.

RIGHT NOW, we are not a top 10 team. We might believe that we are with our O & B goggles on and we know the potential of this team, but as we sit here right now.... we're probably around that #20 range. Wins @ Wisconsin, @ MSU and/or Purdue at home would change that dramatically. It would validate how we feel about our squad.

I'm trying not to get too caught up in the rankings, though it is nice to see that small number next to our name.
 
#82      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
Second place is 1st loser said:
This probably isn't going to be a popular opinion, but I prefer being ranked where we belong. We have great metrics, but they're obviously skewed by margin of victory vs who we actually beat. These last couple of weeks have been a struggle. We lost to Maryland at home, we lost to NW, we escaped IU at home, but we did play well vs OSU(though they are bad right now).

Our truly quality wins are nil. We shouldn't be passing up any of the teams noted above because each and every one of them have really quality wins. Someone made the comment that Northwestern was the #3 team in the league RIGHT NOW. They beat us, they flat out blasted OSU and they should have beaten Purdue for the second time.

RIGHT NOW, we are not a top 10 team. We might believe that we are with our O & B goggles on and we know the potential of this team, but as we sit here right now.... we're probably around that #20 range. Wins @ Wisconsin, @ MSU and/or Purdue at home would change that dramatically. It would validate how we feel about our squad.

I'm trying not to get too caught up in the rankings, though it is nice to see that small number next to our name.
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The last line is really where it begins and ends for me, haha. However, I will say that it simply HAS to count for something that we straight-up demolished Northwestern without Shannon at home. It seems like, both here and nationally, the entire focus is on the fact that they beat us in OT at their place. Taking the two games into account, we look better overall.

I get your point about them having more quality wins (although, ironically that hinges on counting our Illini as a truly marquee win...), but we haven got our shot at Purdue in the House of 'Paign yet. And that touches on the more important point, I guess ... we will have MANY opportunities over the next couple of weeks to stack wins and prove we belong in the top 10.
 
#83      

FairWeatherDieHard

F
FairWeatherDieHard
While it's fun to speculate how many slots we'll move up based on losses above us, it's important to remember how the rankings are tabulated. It's not a monolithic entity moving teams up and down, it's an amalgamation of 63 different voters' scattered opinions. In the latest poll, some voters had us at #7 while one had us unranked. So maybe next week the one moron ranks us, but only at #18 or so -- this is where teams currently ranked below us taking a loss will have an impact. That same voter certainly would not rank us above UNC or Tenn, but the voters that had us at #7 will. There could easily be a scenario in which all the teams ahead of us win, but all the teams ranked #15 - #25 take an L and we move up a couple of slots. A week (hopefully 2 or 3) without an L, a fully armed and operational TSJ, and consistent play (and better D) will get those stragglers to start slotting us where we're ranked, which will then move us up, and other teams will continue to take the occasional loss, and then before you know it we're back to a range of #4 - #12 and an overall ranking of #8 or #9.
 
#86      

Roundball Sage

R
Roundball Sage
Second place is 1st loser said:
This probably isn't going to be a popular opinion, but I prefer being ranked where we belong.
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In-Season Rankings are simply what Someone Else thinks about you in the moment. It is a passive ‘act’ on your part as a roundball team – in fact, a NON act. Someone else’s opinion only that counts for nothing important.

It is YOUR job as a ball team to MAKE other people notice you when and where it counts... ranking or no ranking. This can be done during the regular season but more importantly done come tournament time. All the victories during the regular season are little consolation if you wash out and don’t play well in the only ‘Ranking’ that matters at all – the one team left standing by the big shiny thing at the end. And you do all that on the court. An active... ‘act’. Proactive and not passive nor dependent on what anyone else thinks. An act of physical feats and not mental abstractions or empty popularity.

That said, if one is being ranked out of the Top Ten that is just fine. It takes media focus off you and let’s you do your job on the court without that added pressure... and perhaps your opponent will take you a bit lighter and make themselves more vulnerable to defeat.

Because in the end... making your opponent vulnerable to defeat is what the game is all about.
 
#87      

FreshlySqueezed

FreshlySqueezed
FreshlySqueezed
Fighter of the Nightman said:
The last line is really where it begins and ends for me, haha. However, I will say that it simply HAS to count for something that we straight-up demolished Northwestern without Shannon at home. It seems like, both here and nationally, the entire focus is on the fact that they beat us in OT at their place. Taking the two games into account, we look better overall.

I get your point about them having more quality wins (although, ironically that hinges on counting our Illini as a truly marquee win...), but we haven got our shot at Purdue in the House of 'Paign yet. And that touches on the more important point, I guess ... we will have MANY opportunities over the next couple of weeks to stack wins and prove we belong in the top 10.
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I actually disagree pretty strongly with this.

We have two guaranteed opportunities to prove we belong in the top 10: @ Wisconsin and vs. Purdue. You could maybe talk me into @ MSU but that's a stretch. We could/should get 1-2 more in the Big Ten tournament.

The rest of our schedule consists of games that any top 25 (not top 10) team should reasonably be expected to win.

We have 4 games remaining against projected NCAA tournament teams and two of those are projected 9 (road game) and 10 (home game) seeds.
 
#88      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
Interesting to look at where the final 2022 AP poll on Selection Sunday had teams and where they ended up in the bracket. BTW, I just used 2022 so Illinois could be included since we kind of laid an egg last season, lol...

Hypothetical #1 Seeds
1. Gonzaga - #1 seed
2. Arizona - #1 seed
3. Baylor - #1 seed
4. Auburn - #2 seed
Hypothetical #2 Seeds
5. Kentucky - #2 seed
6. Kansas - #1 seed
7. Duke - #2 seed
8. Villanova - #2 seed
Hypothetical #3 Seeds
9. Purdue - #3 seed
10. Tennessee - #3 seed
11. Providence - #4 seed
12. Wisconsin - #3 seed
Hypothetical #4 Seeds
13. UCLA - #4 seed
14. Texas Tech - #3 seed
15. Arkansas - #4 seed
16. Illinois - #4 seed
Hypothetical #5 Seeds
17. Saint Mary's - #5 seed
18. Houston - #5 seed
19. Murray State - #7 seed
20. UConn - #5 seed
Hypothetical #6 Seeds
21. USC - #7 seed
22. Texas - #6 seed
23. Colorado State - #6 seed
24. Iowa - #5 seed
Hypothetical #7 Seeds
25. North Carolina - #8 seed

So of the 25 teams, nearly 70% got the exact seed they would have expected by merely looking at the top 25. 96% were placed within one seed in either direction. The only school with a bit of a "surprise seed" was mid-major Murray State who was 0-1 vs. ranked teams that year and didn't climb into the top 20 until the last week of the season.

Does the AP Poll "matter" in and of itself? Of course not. However, I think people are fooling themselves if they don't think (A) it plays at least a MINOR role in shaping people's perception of a team that year and (B) more importantly, it usually serves as an excellent barometer for judging the type of season you are having and about what seed that would correspond to.

If you believe that for a moment, just for illustrative purposes, the Illini have pretty much fluctuated from a high #3 seed bordering on a #2 seed when we started the new year and have now fallen to a solid #4 seed. Still plenty of time to improve that, too! The reason I care about other teams losing (obviously, in addition to us winning...) is because this is a crazy year where teams are dropping like flies. It's ALWAYS beneficial when you can get hot and get on a winning streak, but we will benefit significantly more than your average year if our winning streak coincides with chaos everywhere else. :cool:
 
#89      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
FreshlySqueezed said:
I actually disagree pretty strongly with this.

We have two guaranteed opportunities to prove we belong in the top 10: @ Wisconsin and vs. Purdue. You could maybe talk me into @ MSU but that's a stretch. We could/should get 1-2 more in the Big Ten tournament.

The rest of our schedule consists of games that any top 25 (not top 10) team should reasonably be expected to win.

We have 4 games remaining against projected NCAA tournament teams and two of those are projected 9 (road game) and 10 (home game) seeds.
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I didn't mean to say that we have a ton of games that, by themselves, would "prove" we are a top 10 team. I meant that I think a top 10 team only loses 2 more games on our schedule. And we have an opportunity to do that. If those 2 games are to Wisconsin and Purdue, the claim would CERTAINLY be much weaker, as we really need to win one of those. But regardless of who we beat, if we finish 8-2 down the stretch, we'd be 24-7 overall, if I had to guess. Maybe top 15 at worst. The point is that it's not like we have all of these individual opportunities, we have a lot of games that we CAN win if we truly are a top 10 team ... that is where the "proving" comes in for me - the body of work of going 9-1 or 8-2 down the stretch.
 
#90      

FreshlySqueezed

FreshlySqueezed
FreshlySqueezed
Fighter of the Nightman said:
I didn't mean to say that we have a ton of games that, by themselves, would "prove" we are a top 10 team. I meant that I think a top 10 team only loses 2 more games on our schedule. And we have an opportunity to do that. If those 2 games are to Wisconsin and Purdue, the claim would CERTAINLY be much weaker, as we really need to win one of those. But regardless of who we beat, if we finish 8-2 down the stretch, we'd be 24-7 overall, if I had to guess. Maybe top 15 at worst. The point is that it's not like we have all of these individual opportunities, we have a lot of games that we CAN win if we truly are a top 10 team ... that is where the "proving" comes in for me - the body of work of going 9-1 or 8-2 down the stretch.
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I hear you.

I just disagree with the statement or idea that going 8-2 in our remaining 10 games proves we're a top 10 team. I think going 8-2 over our next 10 games is a reasonable outcome for any top 25 team.
 
#91      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
FreshlySqueezed said:
I hear you.

I just disagree with the statement or idea that going 8-2 in our remaining 10 games proves we're a top 10 team. I think going 8-2 over our next 10 games is a reasonable outcome for any top 25 team.
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Maybe in another year, friend, but we will always be compared to the rest of the field. For better or for worse, I think goin 9-1 down the stretch will coincide with much worse records from the teams around us in the polls currently, and our ranking would benefit in comparison to them.

Let's just go 10-0 and settle the debate. :cool:
 
#92      

FairWeatherDieHard

F
FairWeatherDieHard
FairWeatherDieHard said:
While it's fun to speculate how many slots we'll move up based on losses above us, it's important to remember how the rankings are tabulated. It's not a monolithic entity moving teams up and down, it's an amalgamation of 63 different voters' scattered opinions. In the latest poll, some voters had us at #7 while one had us unranked. So maybe next week the one moron ranks us, but only at #18 or so -- this is where teams currently ranked below us taking a loss will have an impact. That same voter certainly would not rank us above UNC or Tenn, but the voters that had us at #7 will. There could easily be a scenario in which all the teams ahead of us win, but all the teams ranked #15 - #25 take an L and we move up a couple of slots. A week (hopefully 2 or 3) without an L, a fully armed and operational TSJ, and consistent play (and better D) will get those stragglers to start slotting us where we're ranked, which will then move us up, and other teams will continue to take the occasional loss, and then before you know it we're back to a range of #4 - #12 and an overall ranking of #8 or #9.
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Here's another interesting observation: let's say all 63 AP voters decide to reward Chris Collins' epic exit by placing NU at #23. Every voter has NU on their ballot, not just at #25 but at #23. You'd think they would be in the actual poll results, perhaps not at #23 but certainly #24 or #25? Nope. Based on the latest poll, they would need 215 points to crack the Top 25, and they'd only have 189. That's because the actual #25, TCU, has some nutjob placing them at #11. And Colo St at #16. Many voters clearly don't watch games, some don't even look at results, some apparently randomize their picks, and a LOT manipulate their ballots by placing teams not where they think they should be, but in a position to compensate for other voters. So when poll results come out and they just don't make sense, well, that's because you are using knowledge and logic to analyze a list that was compiled using neither.
 
#95      

IlliniInIndy85

I
IlliniInIndy85
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#96      

danielb927

danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
danielb927
FreshlySqueezed said:
I hear you.

I just disagree with the statement or idea that going 8-2 in our remaining 10 games proves we're a top 10 team. I think going 8-2 over our next 10 games is a reasonable outcome for any top 25 team.
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Are you talking "top 10" in terms of the polls, or actual quality of teams? You might be right in terms of the former, but in terms of the latter, 8-2 is pretty objective proof that we're a top 10 team.

Even the predictive metrics that have us at around #10 in the country are expecting 3 more losses with our schedule. Purdue, @MSU, @Wisconsin, @Iowa, and @MD are all closer to "toss-ups" than "likely wins", even for the 10th best team in the nation.
 
#98      

FreshlySqueezed

FreshlySqueezed
FreshlySqueezed
danielb927 said:
Are you talking "top 10" in terms of the polls, or actual quality of teams? You might be right in terms of the former, but in terms of the latter, 8-2 is pretty objective proof that we're a top 10 team.

Even the predictive metrics that have us at around #10 in the country are expecting 3 more losses with our schedule. Purdue, @MSU, @Wisconsin, @Iowa, and @MD are all closer to "toss-ups" than "likely wins", even for the 10th best team in the nation.
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Actual quality. Michigan State is 17th and would have essentially the same projection as us against that schedule.

Again, 8-2 against our remaining schedule is a reasonable expected outcome for a top 25 team.

KP gives us a 62% chance to win @MD and a 63% chance to win @Iowa. You wanna give me even money in those games? I'd jump all over that.
 
#99      

danielb927

danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
danielb927
FreshlySqueezed said:
Actual quality. Michigan State is 17th and would have essentially the same projection as us against that schedule.

Again, 8-2 against our remaining schedule is a reasonable expected outcome for a top 25 team.

KP gives us a 62% chance to win @MD and a 63% chance to win @Iowa. You wanna give me even money in those games? I'd jump all over that.
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I wouldn't give you even money in @MD or @Iowa, but I'd certainly take even money that we lose at least one of those games.

To me, a "top 10" team would have something like a 30% chance of getting 8 or more wins with our remaining schedule. A "top 25" (but not top 10) team would have more like a 20% chance.

Sure, it's a reasonable outcome in both cases, but if it happens it's quite a bit of evidence that we're legitimately "top 10". Beyond that it just comes down to your standard for "proof".

Edit: I also think that the margin in those 10 games will be hugely telling. If we go 8-2 with two blowout Ls and 5 squeaker wins, that's way different than 8 solid wins and 2 close Ls.
 
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#100      

Illini2010-11

I
Sugar Grove
Illini2010-11
FreshlySqueezed said:
Actual quality. Michigan State is 17th and would have essentially the same projection as us against that schedule.

Again, 8-2 against our remaining schedule is a reasonable expected outcome for a top 25 team.

KP gives us a 62% chance to win @MD and a 63% chance to win @Iowa. You wanna give me even money in those games? I'd jump all over that.
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By the time the Maryland games takes place, I would not be surprised that you can get close to even money there from the books. This is especially true if Maryland wins at the Breslin Center tomorrow and then handles business up to the 2/17 rematch. I expect a very tight spread in the Maryland game.
 
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