Illinois #21 in 12/3 CFB Playoff Rankings

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Dan

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Welcome to the Bowl Games & CFB Playoff Projections thread 🏈


The next CFB Playoff rankings will be released on Tue., Dec. 3rd at 6:00pm CT, ESPN.


CFB Playoff Selection Show
Sunday, December 8th
11:00am-3:00pm CT
ESPN

The rest of the bowl games typically get announced during/shortly after the show on December 8th.


Big Ten Bowl Tie-Ins
- Cheez-It Citrus Bowl vs SEC, Orlando (Dec 31st, 2:00pm CT, ABC)
- ReliaQuest Bowl vs SEC, Tampa (Dec 31st, 11:00am CT, ESPN)
- Duke's Mayo Bowl vs ACC, Charlotte (Jan 3rd, 6:30pm CT, ESPN)
- Music City Bowl vs SEC, Nashville (Dec 30th, 1:30pm CT, ESPN)
 
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Before we get anyone thinking otherwise.

Oregon, Ohio State and Penn State are all locks for the CFP. Only Indiana has to win today to keep their spot.

That being said if Indiana loses then we probably lose our spot in the Citrus Bowl. SO.. Go Clownpants and beat Purdon't.
 
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We have to be a lock for the Citrus Bowl assuming the Big 10 gets all 4 (Ohio State, Indiana, Penn State, Oregon) in the playoff.

Our only competition is Iowa and they went Citrus last year. Citrus won’t take the same team back to back years. The only question is which SEC team that gets left out of the playoff as our opponent, I think it has to be Bama, Ole Miss, or Texas AM
 
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If we would’ve beat Minnesota, we would’ve had a shot for the CFP with all the craziness that has happened the last two weeks. That’s how close it is.
True, but things tend to balance out a bit. Given the way Illinois played all year, they should have about 7 expected wins at best. Illini overachieved tremendously this season, and got a lot of luck along the way.
 
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If we would’ve beat Minnesota, we would’ve had a shot for the CFP with all the craziness that has happened the last two weeks. That’s how close it is.
And some would have you believe the expanded playoffs would water down the regular season. This has been the most compelling I've seen in a long-long time. Again, first season, but it has been a smashing success.
 
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I added Michigan over Ohio State to the absurd cascade. I don't think that game matters much in the grand scheme, but I like seeing it. :D
Games currently in play don't bode well for the cascade, so I guess we'll have to be happy with the Citrus Bowl.

✅ Memphis over Tulane
❌ Oklahoma State over Colorado
❌ Oregon State over Boise State
❌ Mississippi State over Ole Miss
❌ Georgia Tech over Georgia
✅ Michigan over Ohio State
❌ Texas San Antonio over Army
✅ South Carolina vs Clemson? -- Probably South Carolina
Texas over Texas A&M
Nevada over UNLV
Houston over BYU
Arizona over Arizona State
Kansas State over Iowa State
Auburn over Bama
Cal over SMU
Vandy over Tennessee
Syracuse over Miami
USC over Notre Dame
Purdue over Indiana
 
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Huge hypothetical, but if IU loses by multiple scores tonight, it is possible that IU would drop below Illinois in rankings. Is there a scenario where Citrus Bowl would select Illinois over IU? I am sure Illinois has more alumni in Florida and would travel better.

Either way, Illinois is a lock for a Florida Bowl game on Dec 31.
 
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I have a sick feeling that if we had gone 10-2 (if we had beaten Minny), they would have left us out. They would have found excuses for our close wins. But I am excited for the Citrus Bowl!!!! I love a good orange!
That’s a natural feeling given our history of being kicked in the crotch, but it would be hard to justify keeping us out with wins over bowl teams Nebraska, Michigan, Rutgers, Minnesota and losses only to the two teams playing in the B1G championship game.
 
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Does Clemson’s loss to South Carolina kill our chances of facing Bama?
I think it's very unlikely that South Carolina gets that spot, but you could strongly argue they deserve it.

They really could have and maybe should have won in Tuscaloosa, and they'd be a sneaky favorite to win the whole enchilada if they had, the apple did not fall far from the tree with Shane Beamer.
 
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I think we can project wins for Arizona State and SMU. Miami/Cuse and ND/USC too close to call.

✅Memphis over Tulane
❌ Oklahoma State over Colorado
❌ Oregon State over Boise State
❌ Mississippi State over Ole Miss
❌ Georgia Tech over Georgia
✅ Michigan over Ohio State
❌ Texas San Antonio over Army
✅ South Carolina vs Clemson? -- Probably South Carolina
❌ Vandy over Tennessee
❌ Arizona over Arizona State
❌ Cal over SMU
Arkansas over Mizzou
Syracuse over Miami
USC over Notre Dame
Auburn over Bama
Texas over Texas A&M
Nevada over UNLV
Houston over BYU
Kansas State over Iowa State
Purdue over Indiana

Edit: added Ark/Miznoz
 
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Looks like there’s going to be a lot of debate over who should be in or out. The way the conference standings are with so many teams there should be a 4 team playoff just for conferences. Expanding national playoff to 12 I think will end up making more teams pissed than when it was 4.

Will the conference championship games even matter? One of the top 2 teams will end up having an extra loss. They should probably do away with those and crown co champions based on conference record only.
 
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I think we can project wins for Arizona State and SMU. Miami/Cuse and ND/USC too close to call.

✅Memphis over Tulane
❌ Oklahoma State over Colorado
❌ Oregon State over Boise State
❌ Mississippi State over Ole Miss
❌ Georgia Tech over Georgia
✅ Michigan over Ohio State
❌ Texas San Antonio over Army
✅ South Carolina vs Clemson? -- Probably South Carolina
❌ Vandy over Tennessee
❌ Arizona over Arizona State
❌ Cal over SMU
Syracuse over Miami
USC over Notre Dame
Auburn over Bama
Texas over Texas A&M
Nevada over UNLV
Houston over BYU
Kansas State over Iowa State
Purdue over Indiana
Shouldn’t Arkansas over Miznoz be on this list? Miznoz was ahead of us before today and Arkansas is better than NW
 
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