Taking game performance out of it and speaking strictly win-loss: how many SEC teams, if any, do people think would've outperformed the Illini with our schedule? That to me is a valid question and why I consider us underranked.
Illinois #21 in 12/3 CFB Playoff Rankings
- Status
FeelYourPaign
- So Cal
Too realistic
This right here. Illinois literally did the same or better than what 90% of the rest of the country would have done with this exact same schedule.
I don't think the Illini would ever been considered for the Playoffs with 2 losses. They are not considered a big draw. The so-called experts on the committee would have taken a potential 4 loss Alabama team over anyone with 2 losses.
i dont have a strong opinion on this (quality of wins vs quality of losses etc) but isnt this why he also referred to the overall strength of schedule rating? im too lazy to look it ip right now but im assuming that SOS is trying to capture a broad view of the overall quality/difficulty of an individual trams schedule.
As Bret reminds us, our SOS was ranked 30th, so plenty tough. Compare to Ole Miss:
Nice reminder aerticle.
Bret Bielema turns Lane Kiffin's argument against him, makes College Football Playoff case for Illinois
Illinois coach Bret Bielema turned a Lane Kiffin tweet against him, making a case for the Fighting Illini as a College Football Playoff team.
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redwingillini11
White and Sixth
- Batavia
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Illinois vs. South Carolina
College football bowl projections: Alabama rejoins playoff field, while Texas, SMU move up
The upsets in Week 14 caused major changes to the College Football Playoff field in this week's USA TODAY Sports bowl projections.
www.usatoday.com
| Dec. 31 | Citrus | Big Ten vs. SEC | Illinois vs. South Carolina |
College football bowl projections after Week 14: Playoff changes after Texas wins, Ohio State falters
Rivalry weekend brought the boom, and major changes to bowl projections.
247sports.com
Projected matchup: South Carolina vs. Illinois
Put it like this — Orlando is going to take whichever three-loss SEC team is the "first team out" of the playoff and that's either going to be South Carolina or Alabama. Illinois will be the likely selection from the Big Ten after finishing 9-3 this fall under Bret Bielema.
College football bowl projections for championship week: CFP picks and four bowls we want to see | Sporting News
There are several matchups we would opt-in to watch outside of the first 12-team College Football Playoff.
www.sportingnews.com
| Dec. 31 | Cheez-It Citrus Bowl | Illinois vs. South Carolina |
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Dec. 31 •
Orlando, FL
S. Carolina
-8.5
Illinois
College Football Bowl Projections 2025-26
CBS Sports experts select the college football teams they believe will make the NCAA National Semifinals at the end of the 2025 season and give projections for each game.
www.cbssports.com
Citrus Bowl (Dec. 31)
Tie-In: Big Ten vs. SECProjection: Illinois vs. South Carolina
2024 College Football Bowl Projections: Ohio State, Miami Losses Shake Up CFP
After an incredible Week 14 full of shocks and surprises, our latest College Football Bowl Projections predict the 2024 postseason.
collegefootballnetwork.com
Illinois vs. South Carolina
Yep, it's all going to come down to whether the committee selects South Carolina or Alabama as the last at large selection. If Clemson beats SMU in the ACC Championship and Texas beats Georgia in the SEC Championship, I think South Carolina should be the clear selection. An SMU win would probably hurt South Carolina's prospects considerably, and a Georgia win would give committee members enough reason to say "See, Alabama is deserving because they have the best win" even if their losses are worse than South Carolina's. Or maybe the committee not wanting to deal with this situation just selects Miami instead, haha (they're not going to).
CFP Locks: 11
Oregon
Texas
Group of 5 Champ
ACC Champ
B12 Champ
Penn State
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Indiana
Tennessee
Georgia
1 CFP bid left.
Strength of Schedule is important, but not all 9-3’s can be ranked simply by SOS, because it matters who you beat.
If we were 9-3 by beating Penn State and losing to Nebraska, our AP rank would be higher (even though our SOS is the same in both 9-3 outcomes).
Alabama and Ole Miss beat Georgia, while we have not one quality win.
Regarding how important or unimportant the quality of a loss is, Norte Dame is ranked AP#5 with a loss at home to Northern Illinois…
If we were 9-3 by beating Penn State and losing to Nebraska, our AP rank would be higher (even though our SOS is the same in both 9-3 outcomes).
Alabama and Ole Miss beat Georgia, while we have not one quality win.
Regarding how important or unimportant the quality of a loss is, Norte Dame is ranked AP#5 with a loss at home to Northern Illinois…
Epsilon
M tipping over
- Pdx
Yeah I think the difference between us being 9-3 vs 6-6 this year were our playmakers. Take out the directional schools and there weren’t too many dominant wins either this year. But guys like Bryant, Altmyer, Jacas, Beatty, Laughery, Edwards, and M and X Scott stepped up all season long to make big plays at critical times. We had solid play just about everywhere as a good foundation, but these players helped nudge us past the top half of the big ten.
Who else am I missing btw (still trying to wake up out here in PST)?
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uofi7477
- Silver & Gold Vandals
Nice job pulling all this together - thank you.Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Illinois vs. South Carolina
College football bowl projections: Alabama rejoins playoff field, while Texas, SMU move up
The upsets in Week 14 caused major changes to the College Football Playoff field in this week's USA TODAY Sports bowl projections.www.usatoday.com
Dec. 31 Citrus Big Ten vs. SEC Illinois vs. South Carolina
Citrus BowlCollege football bowl projections after Week 14: Playoff changes after Texas wins, Ohio State falters
Rivalry weekend brought the boom, and major changes to bowl projections.
Projected matchup: South Carolina vs. Illinois
Put it like this — Orlando is going to take whichever three-loss SEC team is the "first team out" of the playoff and that's either going to be South Carolina or Alabama. Illinois will be the likely selection from the Big Ten after finishing 9-3 this fall under Bret Bielema.
College football bowl projections for championship week: CFP picks and four bowls we want to see | Sporting News
There are several matchups we would opt-in to watch outside of the first 12-team College Football Playoff.
Dec. 31 Cheez-It Citrus Bowl Illinois vs. South Carolina
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Dec. 31 •
Orlando, FL
S. Carolina
-8.5
Illinois
College Football Bowl Projections 2025-26
CBS Sports experts select the college football teams they believe will make the NCAA National Semifinals at the end of the 2025 season and give projections for each game.
Citrus Bowl (Dec. 31)
Tie-In: Big Ten vs. SEC
Projection: Illinois vs. South Carolina
Citrus Bowl2024 College Football Bowl Projections: Ohio State, Miami Losses Shake Up CFP
After an incredible Week 14 full of shocks and surprises, our latest College Football Bowl Projections predict the 2024 postseason.
Illinois vs. South Carolina
pruman91
- interviewing new NL's daily....I really really am
I respect all the different opinions already in this thread , and they seem well thought out........But , we DID go 9-3 and all the " what if's " are only that..........Reality has to be opined and the " what if's " don't do anything to change said reality.........
We just had one of the best regular season's in our last 25 + years and I am going to enjoy it and bask in the warm glow that the IIllini are on the rise in other people's minds across the college FB landscape................The same ole " it could have been a 6-6 record will NOT take away any joy from this old man's heart.........................
It's been a great and exciting season .........................Nothing more , nothing less........................The constant tearing down of each game and bringing hypotheticals into play is another trip down the " Illinois just being Illinois negative view " and it should be retired forever and replaced by " what a new beginning and positive season records being the routine " point of view........
JMHO and in no way am I disrespecting any different opinion than mine .......I'm really really not.......................
We just had one of the best regular season's in our last 25 + years and I am going to enjoy it and bask in the warm glow that the IIllini are on the rise in other people's minds across the college FB landscape................The same ole " it could have been a 6-6 record will NOT take away any joy from this old man's heart.........................
It's been a great and exciting season .........................Nothing more , nothing less........................The constant tearing down of each game and bringing hypotheticals into play is another trip down the " Illinois just being Illinois negative view " and it should be retired forever and replaced by " what a new beginning and positive season records being the routine " point of view........
JMHO and in no way am I disrespecting any different opinion than mine .......I'm really really not.......................
uofi7477
- Silver & Gold Vandals
Right on Pru! Plus with this outlook - one will live longer & happier.
As for the "Man if only we were 10-2" vs. "We're really a 6-6 team who got lucky, just be happy with 9-3", I'd say as with anything, there's nothing wrong with dreaming and wanting a little more doesn't mean you aren't happy with what you have. Imagine winning $100,000 in the lottery, you'd be stoked, but had you just gotten that 1 more number that was 1 digit off, you'd have won over a million. It's ok to be like, man I was thiiiiiis close to winning a million. And yeah, we had some luck this year, we had some statistically improbable clutch plays and performance in OT and single possession games, but let's all enjoy the season we had, it truly was one of the most amazing things any of us has witnessed as fans.
I also do think the "where would we be if we had just beat Minnesota" question is a fair one, and so I'll answer it in a historical context. Historically 10-2 teams from a major conference make the CFP a good 84% of the time, however, of those 16% who missed due to a 3 loss team being selected over them, they all had one thing in common and that's that they had no CFP end of season Top 25 win whereas 3 loss teams did (and in most cases 1 was on the road). As such, even if we were 10-2 with losses to only Oregon and PSU, I'd still project us to fall right outside the playoff, either 1st or 2nd team out. Beating PSU and losing to Minnesota though? I'd have us as a lock to make the CFP.
I also do think the "where would we be if we had just beat Minnesota" question is a fair one, and so I'll answer it in a historical context. Historically 10-2 teams from a major conference make the CFP a good 84% of the time, however, of those 16% who missed due to a 3 loss team being selected over them, they all had one thing in common and that's that they had no CFP end of season Top 25 win whereas 3 loss teams did (and in most cases 1 was on the road). As such, even if we were 10-2 with losses to only Oregon and PSU, I'd still project us to fall right outside the playoff, either 1st or 2nd team out. Beating PSU and losing to Minnesota though? I'd have us as a lock to make the CFP.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
And I am NOT here for those who defend the SEC folks with comebacks about how they ARE the best conference over the last several years ... uh, yeah, no shlt. However, there is something called winning with class, and the way their fans, coaches and even the league commissioner talk just come across as so trashy. I'll give credit where it's due for the football played in that league all day long ... but we can still call out their attitudes as really lame, and Lane (who I actually find quite funny in other instances, and I enjoy watching Ole Miss) is a great example too many times.
Also, forgive my ignorance ... but as far as opponents, what are the chances we could get Mizzou?? I would love to beat them on a neutral field as a prelude to that rivalry starting up. (And, if many here get their way, it might be our only chance to play them!!)
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Close to 0%. If IU does in fact make the playoff, then Illinois is a 100% lock for Citrus Bowl -- I think IU has close to a 99% chance of making CFP.
SEC has only 3 teams that would be selected for that bowl (depending on CFP selections): Bama, South Carolina, and Ole Miss
If Illini somehow were to fall to ReliaQuest Bowl (probably less than 1% chance of happening at this point), we would still likely see one of the three teams mentioned above, but Mizzou would remain an outside chance there. So it is not impossible, but if it were to happen, you might as well purchase lottery tickets.
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When has a 3-loss team ever been selected for BCS or CFP? It has only been 2 or 4 teams for 25 years up to now.
Sorry, should have clarified. We've had CFP polls for a while now, so it's off of the Top 12 in the end of season CFP, not Top 4. The assumption is that the CFP committee will rank similarly now to when only 4 or 2 teams were selected. So since the committee's inception, 84% of 2 loss teams from major conferences finished in the top 12 of the end of year CFP poll. On average, 16% of 2 loss teams from major conferences finished outside the Top 12 and that was primarily due to a 3 loss team with at least one high quality win getting a Top 12 spot over them.
And as a quick snapshot, over the past 10 years, only 8 2 loss teams from major conferences have not finished the season in the CFP Top 12. This year I expect there to be 2-3 such teams, which is wild if it happens
Illinicpa14
- Chicago
For the record - this is why a 12-16 team field is much better. We shock that win at penn state, and we are in the thick of discussion. Over the next 10-20 years, I hope we will have seasons to make it.Too realistic
When it was a top 4 and the current NIL rules, I’m not quite sure we’d make it in the next 100 seasons.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Awesome, thanks for the reply - appreciate it!
Agreed. In the hypothetical scenario where we beat Minnesota, I think we would have been very very annoyed when Bama would have been picked above us (a 2 loss SMU would have been above us too probably). This is probably the better scenario.
Yeah, seeing us with a 10-2 record ranked 14th in the CFP behind 3 loss South Carolina and Alabama wouldn't feel good and we'd likely have lost our minds. For what it's worth though, I would have had us ahead of 2 loss Miami, BYU, and SMU. So it would have made us the highest ranked 2 loss team not to make the playoffs, which I don't think would have made anyone in our fanbase feel any better or feel like we weren't screwed by SEC bias. But objectively, us out at 10-2 would line up with historical precedent.
Epsilon
M tipping over
- Pdx
Didn’t Bielema just say we were last or close to last in the B1G for NIL for football?
- Status