Illinois 75, BYU 73 POSTGAME

#126      

Joel Goodson

Joel Goodson
respect my decision™
Joel Goodson
Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. Played very well the first 15 minutes or so, then, after BYU went with the zone, not so good. Really dodged a bullet. Hill, for the most part, has not stepped up. JCL's been sporadic. Not all gloom and doom, just want more consistency.
 
#127      

Illini1221

I
Peru,IL
Illini1221
WesterveltVictoryCigar said:
Why doesn't it makes sense? Going into the game we were at #67 and BYU was #59, with a projected result of UI 81 BYU 80. We ended up winning 75-73, very close to the predicted result. So no reason to expect the ratings to change much.
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Not necessarily our ranking, but the fact that BYU is ahead of us after giving up 114 to Utah Valley. They beat Colorado at home, but we have more quality wins than them by a decent margin. Nonetheless, it wont matter much if we play well in the Big 10.
 
#128      

WesterveltVictoryCigar

WesterveltVictoryCigar
WesterveltVictoryCigar
Illini1221 said:
Not necessarily our ranking, but the fact that BYU is ahead of us after giving up 114 to Utah Valley. They beat Colorado at home, but we have more quality wins than them by a decent margin. Nonetheless, it wont matter much if we play well in the Big 10.
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Keep in mind his formulas use efficiency margins, not just W/L. And also his ratings right now are still influenced by the inclusion of data from the past 2-3 seasons. BYU won 26 and 25 games the last 2 years, we won 15 and 19 and didn't look too good doing it.

And agree, it'll sort itself out in a few more weeks.
 
#129      

Illini1221

I
Peru,IL
Illini1221
WesterveltVictoryCigar said:
Keep in mind his formulas use efficiency margins, not just W/L. And also his ratings right now are still influenced by the inclusion of data from the past 2-3 seasons. BYU won 26 and 25 games the last 2 years, we won 15 and 19 and didn't look too good doing it.

And agree, it'll sort itself out in a few more weeks.
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Yep, I guess i didn't really have a complete understanding of how that worked.
 
#130      

Calvin

C
Calvin
As far as resume, I've been tracking an average of KenPom and Sagarin of our opponents to get an idea of what our chances are of making the dance. The past few wins have helped bring us to a near-bubble team. Games of note:

Result / Location / Rank / Team
L H 145 Winthrop
L N 8 WVU
L N 34 FSU
W H NC State 67
W N VCU 49
W H BYU 51
- Illinois 65, up 8 positions

Edit: Bracket project has us the 19th team out, so maybe we're a bit farther down than this would suggest.

VCU on a neutral court seems to be our best win --not exactly a game we can hang our hat on, unfortunately. Maybe not quite in the bubble discussion yet, but another 5-10 spots and I think we will be. Just need to hold on during the difficult early BIG stretch. While we're worse than I expected, the conference isn't as strong as I expected. Maybe we can pick up some good wins.
 
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#131      

Bear8287

B
Bear8287
Calvin said:
I cringe when we just stand around, and I see that far too often as a harbinger for a letdown and run by the other team.
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Yes, exactly this... When the Illini are playing well on offense, like the first 15 minutes of this game, there is good ball movement and the players are active. When the Illini go into long scoring droughts, watch the shot clock and see how much time is left when the ball finally goes below the free throw line for the first time during that possession. It's crazy.

BYU went to a zone and it appeared that the Illini didn't know what to do. The bigs seemed uncertain about who or how to pick around the top of the key. How about running something else?

Two big plays by seniors in the final minutes probably saved the game for the Illini. 1) Malcolm Hill battling under the offensive boards to some how rip down a rebound and reset the shot clock and 2) Tracy Abrams' steal for the easy layup. Without those two seniors showing signs of really *wanting* it at the end (modulo Malcolm's miss on the front end of a 1-and-1), the Illini might've gone down in regulation or OT.

This team definitely has the experience and talent to finish in the top half of the B1G if not at least the top 5 and easily be in for the big dance. This team also doesn't seem to play anywhere near it's potential as often as a veteran team should yet.

Assuming that the Illini beat Mizzou, and they should, we're likely not to know too much about where they stand in regards to a possible NCAA tournament bid until the end of January and the team has played 10 B1G games. Somehow Groce is going to need to find a way to win in January, which he hasn't done so far at Illinois.

Mark it on your calendars: January 31st at the SFC. Is this year that Groce finally gets his first win against a Wisconsin team? May go a long ways towards whether the Illini get a bid or not.
 
#132      

WesterveltVictoryCigar

WesterveltVictoryCigar
WesterveltVictoryCigar
Calvin said:
Edit: Bracket project has us the 19th team out, so maybe we're a bit farther down than this would suggest.
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IMO it's too early to look at bracket projections. I mean, almost all of them have Michigan St in easily and I just can't see that based on what they've done so far. They've played some good teams close, but the only decent win they have is over Wichita St.
 
#133      

Calvin

C
Calvin
Ken said:
Oh this is never gonna happen consistently at this point . I fully expect DJ to transfer after this season .

I fully dont understand how anyone on this team is locked into major minutes with as many mistakes as they all make .
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Tracy deserves his starting slot. Leron does to. After that, I'd agree.
 
#134      

Calvin

C
Calvin
WesterveltVictoryCigar said:
IMO it's too early to look at bracket projections. I mean, almost all of them have Michigan St in easily and I just can't see that based on what they've done so far. They've played some good teams close, but the only decent win they have is over Wichita St.
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Of course things will change --we haven't even started conference play. I still find it interesting to get a relative look at the non-conference slate, and especially to get a feel for how much we need to move up for seeding, or in our case, to get an invite.
 
#135      

TownieMatt

T
CU Expat
Chicago
TownieMatt
The Sprouting Divot said:
What were the ticket prices?
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Close to $60 were the cheapest seats in the balcony once you include fees and Ticketmaster crap. Probably would have gone if it was half that. Absolutely ridiculous. The only explanation I can think of is that the United Center sets the prices and they don't know what they're doing.
 
#136      

OldGreg

O
OldGreg
This marks the 5th game in a row I haven't watched the beloved live. This also marks the 5th win in a row...
 
#137      

The Worm

The Worm
CHICAGO, IL
The Worm
The Sprouting Divot said:
What were the ticket prices?
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$80-90 for 200-level.

$100+ for 100-level.

These were the prices at the start of the first game. Couple those prices with bad weather, a mediocre opponent, and an average team, and you're looking at a bad turnout.

With that said, we still drew about 10x what Northwestern had.
 
#138      

dweebs19

dweebs19
dweebs19
Ken said:
Oh this is never gonna happen consistently at this point . I fully expect DJ to transfer after this season .

I fully dont understand how anyone on this team is locked into major minutes with as many mistakes as they all make .
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why would he transfer? his minutes will skyrocket next season. I actually want to increase his minutes this year. I don't know how Groce determines his players, but I don't like seeing Tate get significant more tick than TL. Also, what about AJ? these guys will be the major contributors next season, we need to get them some experience already.
 
#139      

jmilt7

J
Waukegan
jmilt7
TCTORNADO said:
Long term, 5-11 FT shooting will not get it done.
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I agree and was going to post something similar but then I looked up FT percentage so far this year and it is at .706 which isn't too bad, or is it? I don't really know. Though I am sure it can be improved.
 
#140      

jmilt7

J
Waukegan
jmilt7
Ken said:
Oh this is never gonna happen consistently at this point . I fully expect DJ to transfer after this season .

I fully don't understand how anyone on this team is locked into major minutes with as many mistakes as they all make .
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DJ might, I suppose. Who knows what will happen. Maybe enter the NBA draft (looking at you Jerome Richmond) but seems to me with all the people who will be leaving at the end of this season I fully expect him to be a starter. If we can see his potential I have to believe the coaches do, too, and are telling him to be patient (or something to that effect). AJ, too. Seems like a better bet to stay and possibly start than wait out a year at another school.
 
#141      

WesterveltVictoryCigar

WesterveltVictoryCigar
WesterveltVictoryCigar
jmilt7 said:
I agree and was going to post something similar but then I looked up FT percentage so far this year and it is at .706 which isn't too bad, or is it? I don't really know. Though I am sure it can be improved.
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FT shooting is OK, the big offenders are Finke and Mav, who are both around 56-58% and should be much better. Thorne's also bad but we know that he's going to be 50% with not much chance of doing better.
 
#142      

TCTORNADO

TCTORNADO
TCTORNADO
The Worm said:
$80-90 for 200-level.

$100+ for 100-level.

These were the prices at the start of the first game. Couple those prices with bad weather, a mediocre opponent, and an average team, and you're looking at a bad turnout.

With that said, we still drew about 10x what Northwestern had.
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And 100X more than BYU, but OTOH, BYU brought all those kids and multiple wives.
 
#143      

Lucy727

Lucy727
Des Plaines, Il
Lucy727
OldGreg said:
This marks the 5th game in a row I haven't watched the beloved live. This also marks the 5th win in a row...
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I turned the game on when the Illini were up 14. After a minute or two and a commercial, the lead was down to 4 or 6. I decided I was jinxing them and turned the game off. And, sure enough, the Illini won. :thumb:
 
#146      

blmillini

B
Bloomington, IL
blmillini
WesterveltVictoryCigar said:
BYU is not that "young". Keep in mind most of their guys are older than their listed school year because they go on their 2 year mission. Mika and Emery played in the same high school class as Hill, Tate, Morgan, etc. They would be listed as seniors had they not gone on their missions. Haws is only 1 year younger than them. And they all played together in high school so have that added bonus of knowing each other's game for many years.
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By young I did not mean literally "young" in age. I meant experience. Our guys have had more time to develop and should be better.
 
#148      

grue

G
grue
Illinijose said:
2. ... With a 7 point lead you need to draw fouls and/or take the clock under 10 seconds each possession. Wisconsin has done this well for years.
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The 10s offense assumes that the point guard can drive into the lane and draw a foul. Ours fails to get around the corner and into the lane more often than not. Every time we attempt to eat the clock, our lead evaporates.
 
#149      

blmillini

B
Bloomington, IL
blmillini
Obelix said:
I think Black's size at his position, at a college level, is fine. Black's biggest problem is playing under control and not picking up easy silly fouls. He often takes himself out of the game, when we desperately need his offensive game.

That was a quality win, although I would imagine that the mood and perspective would have been totally different if the last shot had gone in. But a quality win is a quality win.

Now on to Mizzou, and we can't overlook that game, despite their lack of a quality team this year. We need to keep the intensity up in that game.
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I was specifically referring to our ability to stop bigs and Black just doesn't have the size/athleticism to do that. He definitely has his strengths and does a tremendous job rebounding. I just think he struggles a bit defensively. He reminds me of a thinner Charles Barkley.
 
#150      

kuhl84

K
Orlando, FL
kuhl84
Illinijose said:
8. We are NCAA bound with 10 non-conference wins and 9-9 record IMHO. Many teams are carrying bad losses and multiple losses due to tougher scheduling than the past when everyone played cupcakes non-conference.
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I agree with your entire post with the exception of this. You are not alone in your opinion, as I see it stated over and over on this board, but IMHO there is virtually no way we are in at 9-9, would be on the fence at 10-8, and confident we are in at 11-7.