Illinois 76, Michigan 53 Postgame

#502      
New York
But izzo thinks differently....

"I heard Michigan lost. But they're still the best team in this league. Everybody knows it." – Tom Izzo

Yep, everybody, Tom. Everybody.
Izzo may actually be my least favorite person in the Big Ten. Which is saying something. It’s truly disgusting how someone can be so incredibly successful and such a whiny little POS
 
#503      
Updated per-possession statistics after a wild 3 day stretch in the B1G:

View attachment 7725

Michigan has almost come back to Illinois on the strength of one game. Illinois very nearly has caught Michigan as the top defensive team in the B1G, and is just a half step behind Michigan and Ohio State for the second best offense in the B1G (behind an extremely good Iowa offense).

Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, and Ohio State have been effectively destroying what is overall the strongest conference since KenPom started tracking efficiency. Purdue has quietly taken advantage of their schedule to slip into 4th in conference, but is clearly the 5th best team, now ahead of Wisconsin. Wisconsin is still arguably a top 15 caliber team that has been beaten up by the top teams in this conference (they're still 12th in KP!), and they're going to be a scary 6/7 seed in the tournament when they get to play a team that isn't MI/IL/IA/OSU.

Maryland and Rutgers are still probably safe, though Rutgers is now below .500 in the conference after being blown out at Nebraska.

Indiana has been a strong team overall that actually now has a below .500 record overall and likely won't make the NCAA tourney.

MSU could still sneak into the tourney due to a strong non-conference, but really they have still only been the 11th or 12th best team in conference.

Minnesota has completely fallen apart without Kalscher and Robbins, and hosts Rutgers to finish off the year.

Nebraska has climbed back to respectability in overall margin, though their offense is still the worst in the conference by a significant margin.
MSU beat the #4 and #5 teams in the country. I believe that it has to elevate them above the 11th or 12th best team in the conference.
 
#504      
When watching the sideline and locker room celebration of the great Illini victory it was clear that this was a total team victory. Even the walk-ons and little used scholly players were in on it.

Kudos to those unseen parts of this great Illini team who work just as hard as the regulars day in and day out to make this team better and bring us a dynamic season.

Well done! Keep it up.
 
#505      
Izzo may actually be my least favorite person in the Big Ten. Which is saying something. It’s truly disgusting how someone can be so incredibly successful and such a whiny little POS
He, like many, sense the Illini resurgence. Like many in his position of power and prestige, he hates the thought of an upset in the status quo, which over the last decade + had his team at the top. Seeing a new threat to that status quo is making him lash out, much like Knight back in his heyday. He hated when Lou had the Illini flying high. Lou called Knight a "classic bully." Izzo is becoming a relic and will likely flame out much like Knight did; you can just see it coming. JMHO
 
#506      
MSU beat the #4 and #5 teams in the country. I believe that it has to elevate them above the 11th or 12th best team in the conference.
Not statistically, it doesn't. Northwestern beat the same #5 team, and beat MSU by 15, and nobody is trying to argue them being any better than the 13th best team in conference.
 
#507      
Wanted to be part of this thread lol.

I think it was mentioned Mich was not able to run their offense for most of the game because of the Illini defense.
A few years back with the high pressure defense, this was true as well, however teams could adjust and score easily. Great to see how hard this team works in defense. Watching some other games, PSU/minn and Nw/Mary, can really see the differences in def, where focus is off if not on ball defender; pick and roll defense sometimes unsure how to defend, off ball get lost.
 
#509      
Wanted to be part of this thread lol.

I think it was mentioned Mich was not able to run their offense for most of the game because of the Illini defense.
A few years back with the high pressure defense, this was true as well, however teams could adjust and score easily. Great to see how hard this team works in defense.
It will be interesting to see how Michigan's game plan changes if they match up with the Illini again.
 
#510      
I mentioned that I felt Michigan's biggest weakness was the size and below average athleticism of their two guards Smith and Brooks. They delivered as promised, neirher could keep Trent and especially Belo out of the lane. Smith is especially slow and has no chance of keeping Belo in front of him.

Add Ayo to the mix and there is such a disparity in speed I don't think Michigan can counter over a whole game. Their big man needs to stay glued to Kofi so the guards penetrate and have little fear of getting blocked.

Trent hit another gear in terms of getting into the lane. We haven't seen that from him since Freshman year. He blew by Wagner on one and crossed Chaundee Brown (who I think is one of the top defenders in the league) out of his shoes.

He had a wiggle to his game we haven't seen for several years.
 
#511      
I mentioned that I felt Michigan's biggest weakness was the size and below average athleticism of their two guards Smith and Brooks. They delivered as promised, neirher could keep Trent and especially Belo out of the lane. Smith is especially slow and has no chance of keeping Belo in front of him.

Add Ayo to the mix and there is such a disparity in speed I don't think Michigan can counter over a whole game. Their big man needs to stay glued to Kofi so the guards penetrate and have little fear of getting blocked.
I agree with you - we are obviously a bad matchup for them. Kofi can guard Dickinson 1-1, so takes away his passing out of double teams, which is one reason for the lack of open three point shots. Our guards and just better than theirs and Ayo > Livers. Wagner is the one matchup problem we have, so he likely has a better game next time, but our help D was really good and given Dickinson isn't an outside threat he can't really pull Kofi too far from the basket, which means he can defend the rim at most times. Teams that give us trouble have a stretch 5 typically

Michigan did stay with Kofi well on the high ball screens, so we didn't get the typical lob dunks from that action as we would normally, but the consequence is they gave up layups to Trent and Belo instead - we'll take that tradeoff!

It wasn't like Michigan was turning the ball over a bunch and we were getting a ton in transition like most blowouts, it was a methodical beat down - we just kept extending the lead until it was out of reach. Michigan can certainly play better, keep us off the offensive glass better in particular, but you don't leave that game thinking it will be totally different next time, you left thinking - Illinois is just a better team (even without Ayo)
 
#513      
Kenpom bugs me because it calcifies as the season goes along. It doesn’t feel flexible enough, especially for games like this. If this had happened early, we would have been rewarded greater.
When the season begins, KenPom calculates a preseason rating based on returning minutes and points and based on last year's performance. As the season goes along, that preseason factor gradually lessens and the in-season data increases in importance until about the end of January (usually) when it's solely based on current season numbers.

To that end, it's a measure of a team's season based on adjusted efficiency with no extra weight given to more recent events. So the reason it seems more fluid earlier on is that (1) There is less current game data, so if you've played 4 games and then have a dynamite 5th game it will affect your season rating more than having a so so 20 games and then a dynamite 21st game, just from sample size.

At the same time, it's not exactly calcifying either, because Michigan jumped from 5th to 2nd over a 3 game span (Wisconsin, Rutgers, Iowa), and the reason for that is their efficiency jumped from about 27 to about 32 (and Baylor dropped from 34 to 31). Illinois' rating jumped from 25ish to 29+ from the Michigan win, it's just that the gap between 6 and 7 right now was large enough that it wasn't a noticeable jump in the actual rankings (if you look, Illinois is now favored to win at OSU even though Illinois is 5th/6th and OSU is a clear 7th).
 
#514      
I got my bet placed at +5000 on August 2nd. My only regret is not putting even more down!
Edit - I think that was within 24 hours of both announcing they were coming back.

Yeah, we got the same line and I agree that it was within 24 hours of them announcing but it was before the books reacted to them announcing.
 
#515      

Deleted member 29907

D
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It will be interesting to see how Michigan's game plan changes if they match up with the Illini again.
Was reading some of their boards and it seems much of their O relies on opposing teams doubling down on Dickenson and kicking out if they do for open shots. One opinion is that they don't have a ton of players who can create their own shots - which i think was evident the other night. With Kofi able to handle HD by himself, that takes away a large portion of their O.

By contrast, when teams do that to us - Kofi is not passing out. Last year, Feliz was able to convince Kofi to dump it to him near the lane for a bunny. We don't have anyone making themselves available for a short pass - and Kofi is basically bound and determined to score when he touches the ball.

I am not sure how Mich adjusts since we have the ability to cover HD one on one and we defend the Pick and Roll very well by dropping down. We pretty much are a matchup problem for them with our quicker guards who handle the ball extremely well. If we face them again, we should keep the ball in TFs and ACs hands and let Ayo be a dump off shooter as he's not quite as quick off the dribble.
 
#516      

Deleted member 29907

D
Guest
When the season begins, KenPom calculates a preseason rating based on returning minutes and points and based on last year's performance. As the season goes along, that preseason factor gradually lessens and the in-season data increases in importance until about the end of January (usually) when it's solely based on current season numbers.

To that end, it's a measure of a team's season based on adjusted efficiency with no extra weight given to more recent events. So the reason it seems more fluid earlier on is that (1) There is less current game data, so if you've played 4 games and then have a dynamite 5th game it will affect your season rating more than having a so so 20 games and then a dynamite 21st game, just from sample size.

At the same time, it's not exactly calcifying either, because Michigan jumped from 5th to 2nd over a 3 game span (Wisconsin, Rutgers, Iowa), and the reason for that is their efficiency jumped from about 27 to about 32 (and Baylor dropped from 34 to 31). Illinois' rating jumped from 25ish to 29+ from the Michigan win, it's just that the gap between 6 and 7 right now was large enough that it wasn't a noticeable jump in the actual rankings (if you look, Illinois is now favored to win at OSU even though Illinois is 5th/6th and OSU is a clear 7th).
Guess the question is, though, do latter season games outweigh early season games? Part of Mich's point jump may also be due to a lower game total as well.
 
#518      
Was reading some of their boards and it seems much of their O relies on opposing teams doubling down on Dickenson and kicking out if they do for open shots. One opinion is that they don't have a ton of players who can create their own shots - which i think was evident the other night. With Kofi able to handle HD by himself, that takes away a large portion of their O.

By contrast, when teams do that to us - Kofi is not passing out. Last year, Feliz was able to convince Kofi to dump it to him near the lane for a bunny. We don't have anyone making themselves available for a short pass - and Kofi is basically bound and determined to score when he touches the ball.

I am not sure how Mich adjusts since we have the ability to cover HD one on one and we defend the Pick and Roll very well by dropping down. We pretty much are a matchup problem for them with our quicker guards who handle the ball extremely well. If we face them again, we should keep the ball in TFs and ACs hands and let Ayo be a dump off shooter as he's not quite as quick off the dribble.

Michigan probably will never shoot that poorly again this season. They missed quite a few shots they usually make. Don't get me wrong, our defense was tight all game long but they still had open looks throughout the game.

A couple more buckets go in for them and the complexion of the game changes although I think we still would have won.
 
#519      
I think my favorite part of the game was when they put Brown on Trent. Brown certainly seems to be their best defender, and, reading between the lines a bit, I bet Howard really challenged Brown to slow down Trent, given the level of intensity Brown showed in guarding Trent. I think Howard/Brown knew they had to shut down Trent to have any chance at coming back.

And then Trent absolutely p***** on him. Game over.

Great win. They are still a terrific team. I expect a much better effort if we see them again and wouldn’t be shocked if they beat us. But we got them on Tuesday. As Coach says, keep chopping wood!
 
#520      
How good is Michigan really as a TEAM? They did not handle being down to Illinois well at all. They folded. There was never a resurgence. They have two one year senior transfers, a freshman, a two year freshman, one four year senior, and a two year coach. The chemistry that is gained from playing together and playing thru adversity may not be there. The conference tournament and NCAA may reveal their lack of toughness. Or it could be revealed by one or more loses to MSU.
 
#521      
Michigan probably will never shoot that poorly again this season. They missed quite a few shots they usually make. Don't get me wrong, our defense was tight all game long but they still had open looks throughout the game.

A couple more buckets go in for them and the complexion of the game changes although I think we still would have won.
They only took 7 threes all game and most of their other shots were contested 1-1 shots with Dickinson trying to shoot over Kofi or one of their guards putting up a contested shot- they weren’t getting layups/ good looks that they missed

but I agree that Livers and Wagner would likely be more aggressive next time- I just don’t think that would close the gap, particularly if we have Ayo
 
#523      
Did I miss the introduction of the 10-pt shot to college basketball?

It would have taken more than "a couple more buckets" to make that game competitive. That was a total beatdown.

I'm mostly speaking about the first half.
 
#524      
Did I miss the introduction of the 10-pt shot to college basketball?

It would have taken more than "a couple more buckets" to make that game competitive. That was a total beatdown.
Indeed.

On the topic of 10 point shots. I'd welcome a 4 point shot beyond half court anytime now. I'm conservative in almost every way, but I like that idea. Color me crazy.
 
#525      
I believe the defense was set up to not let Livers and Wagner go right or be left open for threes and Kofi to handle Dickinson by himself. Trent could handle Smith.