hooraybeer
- Pittsburgh, PA
+4000Man, I want to know who on this board took the Vegas odds for Illinois with a Natty b/4 Ayo and Kofi’s return. Drinks on you!
+4000Man, I want to know who on this board took the Vegas odds for Illinois with a Natty b/4 Ayo and Kofi’s return. Drinks on you!
Izzo may actually be my least favorite person in the Big Ten. Which is saying something. It’s truly disgusting how someone can be so incredibly successful and such a whiny little POSBut izzo thinks differently....
"I heard Michigan lost. But they're still the best team in this league. Everybody knows it." – Tom Izzo
Yep, everybody, Tom. Everybody.
MSU beat the #4 and #5 teams in the country. I believe that it has to elevate them above the 11th or 12th best team in the conference.Updated per-possession statistics after a wild 3 day stretch in the B1G:
View attachment 7725
Michigan has almost come back to Illinois on the strength of one game. Illinois very nearly has caught Michigan as the top defensive team in the B1G, and is just a half step behind Michigan and Ohio State for the second best offense in the B1G (behind an extremely good Iowa offense).
Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, and Ohio State have been effectively destroying what is overall the strongest conference since KenPom started tracking efficiency. Purdue has quietly taken advantage of their schedule to slip into 4th in conference, but is clearly the 5th best team, now ahead of Wisconsin. Wisconsin is still arguably a top 15 caliber team that has been beaten up by the top teams in this conference (they're still 12th in KP!), and they're going to be a scary 6/7 seed in the tournament when they get to play a team that isn't MI/IL/IA/OSU.
Maryland and Rutgers are still probably safe, though Rutgers is now below .500 in the conference after being blown out at Nebraska.
Indiana has been a strong team overall that actually now has a below .500 record overall and likely won't make the NCAA tourney.
MSU could still sneak into the tourney due to a strong non-conference, but really they have still only been the 11th or 12th best team in conference.
Minnesota has completely fallen apart without Kalscher and Robbins, and hosts Rutgers to finish off the year.
Nebraska has climbed back to respectability in overall margin, though their offense is still the worst in the conference by a significant margin.
He, like many, sense the Illini resurgence. Like many in his position of power and prestige, he hates the thought of an upset in the status quo, which over the last decade + had his team at the top. Seeing a new threat to that status quo is making him lash out, much like Knight back in his heyday. He hated when Lou had the Illini flying high. Lou called Knight a "classic bully." Izzo is becoming a relic and will likely flame out much like Knight did; you can just see it coming. JMHOIzzo may actually be my least favorite person in the Big Ten. Which is saying something. It’s truly disgusting how someone can be so incredibly successful and such a whiny little POS
Not statistically, it doesn't. Northwestern beat the same #5 team, and beat MSU by 15, and nobody is trying to argue them being any better than the 13th best team in conference.MSU beat the #4 and #5 teams in the country. I believe that it has to elevate them above the 11th or 12th best team in the conference.
It will be interesting to see how Michigan's game plan changes if they match up with the Illini again.Wanted to be part of this thread lol.
I think it was mentioned Mich was not able to run their offense for most of the game because of the Illini defense.
A few years back with the high pressure defense, this was true as well, however teams could adjust and score easily. Great to see how hard this team works in defense.
I mentioned that I felt Michigan's biggest weakness was the size and below average athleticism of their two guards Smith and Brooks. They delivered as promised, neirher could keep Trent and especially Belo out of the lane. Smith is especially slow and has no chance of keeping Belo in front of him.
Add Ayo to the mix and there is such a disparity in speed I don't think Michigan can counter over a whole game. Their big man needs to stay glued to Kofi so the guards penetrate and have little fear of getting blocked.
I agree with you - we are obviously a bad matchup for them. Kofi can guard Dickinson 1-1, so takes away his passing out of double teams, which is one reason for the lack of open three point shots. Our guards and just better than theirs and Ayo > Livers. Wagner is the one matchup problem we have, so he likely has a better game next time, but our help D was really good and given Dickinson isn't an outside threat he can't really pull Kofi too far from the basket, which means he can defend the rim at most times. Teams that give us trouble have a stretch 5 typicallyI mentioned that I felt Michigan's biggest weakness was the size and below average athleticism of their two guards Smith and Brooks. They delivered as promised, neirher could keep Trent and especially Belo out of the lane. Smith is especially slow and has no chance of keeping Belo in front of him.
Add Ayo to the mix and there is such a disparity in speed I don't think Michigan can counter over a whole game. Their big man needs to stay glued to Kofi so the guards penetrate and have little fear of getting blocked.
I got my bet placed at +5000 on August 2nd. My only regret is not putting even more down!+4000
When the season begins, KenPom calculates a preseason rating based on returning minutes and points and based on last year's performance. As the season goes along, that preseason factor gradually lessens and the in-season data increases in importance until about the end of January (usually) when it's solely based on current season numbers.Kenpom bugs me because it calcifies as the season goes along. It doesn’t feel flexible enough, especially for games like this. If this had happened early, we would have been rewarded greater.
I got my bet placed at +5000 on August 2nd. My only regret is not putting even more down!
Edit - I think that was within 24 hours of both announcing they were coming back.
Was reading some of their boards and it seems much of their O relies on opposing teams doubling down on Dickenson and kicking out if they do for open shots. One opinion is that they don't have a ton of players who can create their own shots - which i think was evident the other night. With Kofi able to handle HD by himself, that takes away a large portion of their O.It will be interesting to see how Michigan's game plan changes if they match up with the Illini again.
Guess the question is, though, do latter season games outweigh early season games? Part of Mich's point jump may also be due to a lower game total as well.When the season begins, KenPom calculates a preseason rating based on returning minutes and points and based on last year's performance. As the season goes along, that preseason factor gradually lessens and the in-season data increases in importance until about the end of January (usually) when it's solely based on current season numbers.
To that end, it's a measure of a team's season based on adjusted efficiency with no extra weight given to more recent events. So the reason it seems more fluid earlier on is that (1) There is less current game data, so if you've played 4 games and then have a dynamite 5th game it will affect your season rating more than having a so so 20 games and then a dynamite 21st game, just from sample size.
At the same time, it's not exactly calcifying either, because Michigan jumped from 5th to 2nd over a 3 game span (Wisconsin, Rutgers, Iowa), and the reason for that is their efficiency jumped from about 27 to about 32 (and Baylor dropped from 34 to 31). Illinois' rating jumped from 25ish to 29+ from the Michigan win, it's just that the gap between 6 and 7 right now was large enough that it wasn't a noticeable jump in the actual rankings (if you look, Illinois is now favored to win at OSU even though Illinois is 5th/6th and OSU is a clear 7th).
Was reading some of their boards and it seems much of their O relies on opposing teams doubling down on Dickenson and kicking out if they do for open shots. One opinion is that they don't have a ton of players who can create their own shots - which i think was evident the other night. With Kofi able to handle HD by himself, that takes away a large portion of their O.
By contrast, when teams do that to us - Kofi is not passing out. Last year, Feliz was able to convince Kofi to dump it to him near the lane for a bunny. We don't have anyone making themselves available for a short pass - and Kofi is basically bound and determined to score when he touches the ball.
I am not sure how Mich adjusts since we have the ability to cover HD one on one and we defend the Pick and Roll very well by dropping down. We pretty much are a matchup problem for them with our quicker guards who handle the ball extremely well. If we face them again, we should keep the ball in TFs and ACs hands and let Ayo be a dump off shooter as he's not quite as quick off the dribble.
They only took 7 threes all game and most of their other shots were contested 1-1 shots with Dickinson trying to shoot over Kofi or one of their guards putting up a contested shot- they weren’t getting layups/ good looks that they missedMichigan probably will never shoot that poorly again this season. They missed quite a few shots they usually make. Don't get me wrong, our defense was tight all game long but they still had open looks throughout the game.
A couple more buckets go in for them and the complexion of the game changes although I think we still would have won.
Did I miss the introduction of the 10-pt shot to college basketball?A couple more buckets go in for them and the complexion of the game changes although I think we still would have won.
Did I miss the introduction of the 10-pt shot to college basketball?
It would have taken more than "a couple more buckets" to make that game competitive. That was a total beatdown.
Indeed.Did I miss the introduction of the 10-pt shot to college basketball?
It would have taken more than "a couple more buckets" to make that game competitive. That was a total beatdown.