We better. I would be happy with a whole lot more wearing uniforms than street clothes.
Illinois Basketball 2016-2017
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We better. I would be happy with a whole lot more wearing uniforms than street clothes.
I think he'll play a lot of minutes at the 4 either way, allowing Finke to play more at the 5 and Leron too, based on matchups. I really don't look at it as 4's and 5's though on offense as much as lumping them all in the same group as bigs. The position to me has more to do with who they can guard.
Guys who should be able to guard 5's: Morgan, Finke, Thorne (or transfer,) Black
Guys who should be able to guard 4's: Finke, Black, Nichols, Hill, DJW
Next year's team should have a lot more versatility than this year's with the option to play a traditional lineup, or 4 guard lineup depending on matchups (instead of just necessity.) I, for one, am very excited to watch.
Captain Bubbles
- Fairfield, IL
Good point and same here. I was going off of combes' post a while back about Kipper.
Jabber Jabber
- Champaign, IL
I keep seeing this pop up here. People are putting a lot of weight behind the opinion of someone I've never seen discussed here before.
Captain Bubbles
- Fairfield, IL
He did select Malcolm Hill as the best returning player in the Big Ten for next season. I like it when Malcolm and any other Illini player receives recognition.
Yes, but this past year's team would have been top 5 and top 25 if they had been healthy (IMO). While this last year looks like an outlier as far as injuries, I'm not assuming anything about next year.
Also, I'm very pessimistic about Thorne getting a 6th year. I was pessimistic before he tried coming back and I'm even more pessimistic now. It would be nice though.
Key IMO is PG play. Crossing my fingers Tracy can come back strong and/or Lucas surprises as a FR. Tate I've pretty much given up on.
If Thorne doesn't get a 6th year and we don't pick up another big or the bigs we have don't substantially improve, we will be hard pressed to finish top 8 next season. TA is not the kind of PG that makes others around him better. He is certainly a better scorer and defensive PG but he is not the dynamic kind that facilitates offensive flow. We don't really have those kind of players on our roster now, we don't really play very good defense most of the time and without more help in the post we will be in trouble again. Thorne was critical to us having any chance of finishing in the top 8 this year and without him next year we are in no better position than we were this year.
blackdog
- Champaign
TA doesn't really have to make anyone else better though with this roster. He really just has to provide some consistency offensively as far as handling the ball and providing another scoring threat. He is a willing shooter and can knock it down so teams do have to respect him which is different from Tate or Lewis. Plus he has shown he is willing and able to take it to the rim if giving space (biggest thing to keep an eye on coming back from injuries though). That opens up some room for other players to operate.
On defense having a guy up top that can be a ball stopper makes a huge difference. Preventing penetration makes everything easier on defense. Sure having a big who can provide help and block shots makes a difference but if you have a PG who can stop people from getting in the lane in the first place then you don't have to worry as much about rotations and help defense.
I really like the intangibles Tracy brings and he was good on D, but people forget how poor of a shooter he was. His last year he shot 27% from 3 and 33% from the field.
I agree -- Tracy doesn't have to be that great to improve on what we had this year at PG.
Captain Bubbles
- Fairfield, IL
I may be the oddball, but I view this in a different perspective, regarding the Tracy situation. Depth chart:
PG: Abrams, Tate, Lucas
Sounds simple, but will certainly help out Lucas a whole lot by gaining experience and not being thrown so much into the fire during his freshman year. Probably will average 5-10 minutes per game. A lot of this though is riding on the health of Abrams and Tate's situation. If it works out, will certainly be a plus.
PG: Abrams, Tate, Lucas
Sounds simple, but will certainly help out Lucas a whole lot by gaining experience and not being thrown so much into the fire during his freshman year. Probably will average 5-10 minutes per game. A lot of this though is riding on the health of Abrams and Tate's situation. If it works out, will certainly be a plus.
Disagree, if we add Black, Abrams, Lucas and Nichols to go with the expected improvement from freshmen Coleman-Lands, Finke, Williams and Jordan then there's certainly reason to expect improvement. Losing Nunn would offset some of that, but at least it's a position where we'd have some depth. There should also be some benefit from having a team that is intact from the start of the season, or even over the summer if the status of Black, Nunn and Tate is known sometime soon.
Soxfreak64
- Bloomington
The big difference is that he could knock down an open 3. Teams still had to guard him out to the 3pt line.
Deleted member 29907
D
Guest
+100 - TAs leadership and tenacity will go a long way to help this club be more aggressive.
If they all return, we have a top 25 team. If none return, we could face another 11-14 seed in the BTT. Do you think we will have answers on most or all four by the end of the month?
My comment was in response to another poster who had posted percentages of Indiana's backup PG and then said,"What is he good at?" I was hinting at the fact that Tracy, who is a definite upgrade over Tate/Lewis, still shouldn't be viewed as the fix to all of our problems.
Food for thought when projecting Tracy's impact next season - according to a 2012 Drexel University study of 19 NBA players who suffered Achilles tears:
-7 never played again
-Among the 12 who returned to play at least one season, minutes per game dropped by 4.21
-PER declined by 4.64
-FT attempts per game generally down
-Usage rates generally down
Wesley Matthews is the most recent high-profile player to come back from a torn Achilles. His statistical decline is absolutely standard for this injury. Here's a comparison of his last two seasons (2014-15 pre-injury; 15-16 post-injury):
2014-15: PPG - 15.9, REB - 3.7, FTA - 2.4, FG% - 44.8, 3PT% - 38.9, EFG% - 56.3, TS% - 58.6, Usage Rate - 19.8, Win Shares - 6.2, VORP - 3.0
2015-16: PPG - 12.5, REB - 3.1, FTA - 1.9, FG% - 38.9, 3PT% - 36.3, EFG% - 50.0, TS% - 53.4, Usage Rate - 17.2, Win Shares - 3.6, VORP - 1.6
Again, this decline is par for the course and demonstrates that, unlike ACL injuries, the prognosis for Achilles tears has not improved with recent advances in medical technology. Tracy was a replacement level B1G player before the ACL and Achilles injuries. Expecting him to be a starter quality player when he returns is unreasonable. I hope he defies the odds, but I'm guessing he won't be able to contribute much. I'd be pretty surprised if he gives us even as much as Khalid Lewis this past year. I think that's the absolute ceiling. I just hope that Te'Jon is ready to contribute immediately.
-7 never played again
-Among the 12 who returned to play at least one season, minutes per game dropped by 4.21
-PER declined by 4.64
-FT attempts per game generally down
-Usage rates generally down
Wesley Matthews is the most recent high-profile player to come back from a torn Achilles. His statistical decline is absolutely standard for this injury. Here's a comparison of his last two seasons (2014-15 pre-injury; 15-16 post-injury):
2014-15: PPG - 15.9, REB - 3.7, FTA - 2.4, FG% - 44.8, 3PT% - 38.9, EFG% - 56.3, TS% - 58.6, Usage Rate - 19.8, Win Shares - 6.2, VORP - 3.0
2015-16: PPG - 12.5, REB - 3.1, FTA - 1.9, FG% - 38.9, 3PT% - 36.3, EFG% - 50.0, TS% - 53.4, Usage Rate - 17.2, Win Shares - 3.6, VORP - 1.6
Again, this decline is par for the course and demonstrates that, unlike ACL injuries, the prognosis for Achilles tears has not improved with recent advances in medical technology. Tracy was a replacement level B1G player before the ACL and Achilles injuries. Expecting him to be a starter quality player when he returns is unreasonable. I hope he defies the odds, but I'm guessing he won't be able to contribute much. I'd be pretty surprised if he gives us even as much as Khalid Lewis this past year. I think that's the absolute ceiling. I just hope that Te'Jon is ready to contribute immediately.
I have no idea.
Keep in mind that that most of the players in that study were older, so combine injury with age and of course you're more likely to retire. It is a much tougher recovery compared to ACL injuries but that's all we can take from that study. Athleticism and explosion are necessary qualities for NBA players but you can get by without that at this level. I actually believe that Lewis is closer to Abrams' floor than his ceiling for this season based on what I've heard about his recovery so far.
Illini Ad Man
- Hawkeye land (previously Jayhawk Country)
No doubt the level of competition is different so it will be easier for Tracy than it would be for an NBA player. But NBA players have many more resources to assist them in their recovery. The biggest issue is that Tracy will not have played a competitive season for two years. Sitting out two years is going to have an impact on his game. I really think the idea that future Tracy will be anywhere close to past Tracy is a fantasy. I hope I'm wrong, but I'd expect Lucas to carry more of the load than we'd really like him to his freshman season.
That is the main reason I'd prefer to have Moore in the mix as well.
Here's an interview with Tejon
http://www.scout.com/college/illinois/story/1659140-future-illini-pg-lucas-on-comeback-trail
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