Illinois Football Recruiting Thread

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#927      

Dbell1981

Decatur, IL
Sorry to disappoint but the assumption of Gaussian Distribution is not empirically supported and a long stretch. For small sample like this, you need students t distribution that allows thicker tails or excess kurtosis. If you throw couple of 4 or 5 stars players in the mix, that will result in skewed distribution or non-zero skewness, so may be a chi-squared distribution may end up being useful. Just must 2 cents. (Dan please remove this message if it's inappropriate)
Now im really interested in prumans reaction to these posts.
 
#928      
That's fabulous. I hereby cede the "Altgeld" handle to you, my friend. Mine will subsequently become "JanitorCloset88."
Lol GIF

(That was a good one! Nice Work.)

Might I suggest: “CustodialEngineerCloset88”

I just thought it might make your self-imposed demotion go down a little easier.
 
#929      
Sorry to disappoint but the assumption of Gaussian Distribution is not empirically supported and a long stretch. For small sample like this, you need students t distribution that allows thicker tails or excess kurtosis. If you throw couple of 4 or 5 stars players in the mix, that will result in skewed distribution or non-zero skewness, so may be a chi-squared distribution may end up being useful. Just must 2 cents. (Dan please remove this message if it's inappropriate)
Ah, so the Gaussian Distribution wasn't an assumption. 247 sports stated that that's what they used for their rankings, so that's why it was my starting point.

That said, I do completely agree with you in that if I was setting up a ranking system from scratch, a gaussian function is not where I would end up. And while a t-score is made for small sample size, I likely wouldn't use it here either as we pretty much have an entire population worth of player ranking and performance data we have at our disposal over many years and rating impact is going to be just so ridiculously skewed.

While it'd be a ton of work, really I think the best approach is probably building a composite rating vs. productivity chart for each position while also charting for performance at a given rating vs. being the nth rated prospect in the class (or at position), while accounting for other dependent variables like strength of teammates, opponents, positional competition etc. And then using those curves as input to project a given player's expected contribution to a team as a 50th percentile player with that composite score. But as I said, a ton of work. That Gaussian distribution curve is looking a whole lot better to me now, lol...
 
#930      
That's fabulous. I hereby cede the "Altgeld" handle to you, my friend. Mine will subsequently become "JanitorCloset88."
That's kind of you but I couldn't possibly accept. In fact, I don't actually recall ever having a class in Altgeld- I want to say my math classes were in like Henry or Lincoln. Now Talbot on the other hand, that place took years off my life... Really, we should all just be honored that we got a degree from one of the top schools in the country.
 
#931      
That's kind of you but I couldn't possibly accept. In fact, I don't actually recall ever having a class in Altgeld- I want to say my math classes were in like Henry or Lincoln. Now Talbot on the other hand, that place took years off my life... Really, we should all just be honored that we got a degree from one of the top schools in the country.
There is zero truth to the rumor that my namesake took multiple classes at Altgeld.
 
#932      

Illini92and96

Austin, TX
Rivals has their new 2025 top 250 out

There are 9 in-staters included here and several more that didn't make the list but are solid prospects. Big year in 2025
Seems like last year’s success and hype would have an impact on the 2025 class. I really hope we can pull at least two of these instate kids. I’m all for the under the radar fits your scheme and program types, but some big wins would be refreshing.
 
#934      

altgeld88

Arlington, Virginia
That's kind of you but I couldn't possibly accept. In fact, I don't actually recall ever having a class in Altgeld- I want to say my math classes were in like Henry or Lincoln. Now Talbot on the other hand, that place took years off my life... Really, we should all just be honored that we got a degree from one of the top schools in the country.
Full marks that you're a TAM graduate. Stellar department. My frosh roommate was a TAM major. ME here (well, we're all one big happy MechSE family now, I suppose!) When I visited campus last summer visited Talbot and was bummed to see that they filled in the big bay and the Iron Giant concrete crusher apparently is no more. Newmark has one, I believe, but it lacks the majesty of its Talbot cousin. [EDIT: and, yeah, grateful and honored that I got to study what and where I did.]

1687872891367.png
 
#936      
Full marks that you're a TAM graduate. Stellar department. My frosh roommate was a TAM major. ME here (well, we're all one big happy MechSE family now, I suppose!) When I visited campus last summer visited Talbot and was bummed to see that they filled in the big bay and the Iron Giant concrete crusher apparently is no more. Newmark has one, I believe, but it lacks the majesty of its Talbot cousin. [EDIT: and, yeah, grateful and honored that I got to study what and where I did.]

View attachment 26838
This is on a RECRUITING thread? I get it! We want our Football linemen to crush the concrete now with their bare hands! (I've heard that some actually can...)
 
#937      

mhuml32

Cincinnati, OH
Seems like last year’s success and hype would have an impact on the 2025 class. I really hope we can pull at least two of these instate kids. I’m all for the under the radar fits your scheme and program types, but some big wins would be refreshing.

Appreciate everyone sharing this list, first time I've looked at next year's class. A couple of notes:

- The staff has been very proactive in making '25 offers this year and prioritizing their mentions on social media, bringing them in for unofficial visits, etc. Trying to make progress in '24 but hoping to take an even bigger step in '25.
- I'll assume the younger Espenesa (Edwardsville) and Talyn Taylor (Geneva) have too many offers from top programs to be attainable (happy to look back on this and be wrong). It would take an epic year from Illinois (double digit wins) for them to seriously consider staying in-state.
- The second tier of in-state (and a smattering of close to state border talent) are players where Illinios has either offered early, brought them in for unofficial visits already, or both: That includes Dierre Hill (Althoff? Vashon?), Owen Strebig (Waukesha), Jaylen Williams (Palatine), Chris Burgess (Simeon), & Nathaniel Marshall (Fenwick).
- Strength in-state is undoubtedly the defensive edge. Question is whether Illinois will be able to fight with the Big Ten royalty and other powers to keep 1 or more in-state.
 
#938      

redwingillini11

White and Sixth
North Aurora
Full marks that you're a TAM graduate. Stellar department. My frosh roommate was a TAM major. ME here (well, we're all one big happy MechSE family now, I suppose!) When I visited campus last summer visited Talbot and was bummed to see that they filled in the big bay and the Iron Giant concrete crusher apparently is no more. Newmark has one, I believe, but it lacks the majesty of its Talbot cousin. [EDIT: and, yeah, grateful and honored that I got to study what and where I did.]

View attachment 26838
Also a MechSE, and nooooooo! the Iron Giant is gone?? That is a sad realization. That thing was awesome.
 
#940      
At the risk of being redundant, screw the rankings. If staff wants 'em, I want 'em (staff has earned the benefit of the doubt). I trust their evals.
First, I agree basically with what you said. Rankings are not infallible and I think BB and staff have put together a solid+ class thus far and can’t wait to see who else they add. And while I trust their evals, it seems incredibly naive to think the staff isn’t interested in or have higher rankings of their own for players they aren’t getting (either lost the recruiting battle we were in or could never got into the battle because said highly ranked players weren’t interested in Illini). As fans we shouldn’t get completely wrapped up in the rankings, but let’s not pretend that in many cases BB and company wouldn’t prefer a player ranked in the top 250 over someone ranked in the 900s. But they have to use their resources and relationships to prioritize those we have a chance of getting. And I think they they are the best at that we’ve seen at Illinois in quite some time.

The other thing that I’ve not heard mentioned is the impact pulling in a top 100 recruit or two has on overall recruiting. Seems like that would give it a lift — best want to play with best and the credibility it creates.
 
#944      

Joel Goodson

respect my decision™
First, I agree basically with what you said. Rankings are not infallible and I think BB and staff have put together a solid+ class thus far and can’t wait to see who else they add. And while I trust their evals, it seems incredibly naive to think the staff isn’t interested in or have higher rankings of their own for players they aren’t getting (either lost the recruiting battle we were in or could never got into the battle because said highly ranked players weren’t interested in Illini). As fans we shouldn’t get completely wrapped up in the rankings, but let’s not pretend that in many cases BB and company wouldn’t prefer a player ranked in the top 250 over someone ranked in the 900s. But they have to use their resources and relationships to prioritize those we have a chance of getting. And I think they they are the best at that we’ve seen at Illinois in quite some time.

The other thing that I’ve not heard mentioned is the impact pulling in a top 100 recruit or two has on overall recruiting. Seems like that would give it a lift — best want to play with best and the credibility it creates.

well, sure. but an accurate assessment of your chances needs to be ongoing. picking your battles is key. as is knowing when to cut bait. staff seems to be doing a VG job of that. I love that most of the tall order battles involve Illinois preps.
 
#945      
First, I agree basically with what you said. Rankings are not infallible and I think BB and staff have put together a solid+ class thus far and can’t wait to see who else they add. And while I trust their evals, it seems incredibly naive to think the staff isn’t interested in or have higher rankings of their own for players they aren’t getting (either lost the recruiting battle we were in or could never got into the battle because said highly ranked players weren’t interested in Illini). As fans we shouldn’t get completely wrapped up in the rankings, but let’s not pretend that in many cases BB and company wouldn’t prefer a player ranked in the top 250 over someone ranked in the 900s. But they have to use their resources and relationships to prioritize those we have a chance of getting. And I think they they are the best at that we’ve seen at Illinois in quite some time.

The other thing that I’ve not heard mentioned is the impact pulling in a top 100 recruit or two has on overall recruiting. Seems like that would give it a lift — best want to play with best and the credibility it creates.
I was thinking of the best way to put my thoughts on the original post, but this pretty much nails it.
 
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