Personal opinion or do you facts that you are basing this claim on?
Personal opinion, and I certainly hope to be wrong about the punching bags, but history would suggest that. I don't think the odds of a national championship are materially different whether we're in the power group or not, even making the playoff would probably be a once-in-thirty-years thing.
If we end up in ten years back with a 10-12 team conference (meaning UM, tOSU, Oregon, etc. have ascended into the P1), well that's life. If I can still go see the Illini play Iowa or Purdue or Wisconsin on a nice fall Saturday, it's not the worst thing.
But we already have coast-to-coast conferences with zero geographic or historical affiliation. Cal in the ACC? And as of yesterday you have a clear signal that no matter what a non-P2 team does (FSU), you are not worthy of a seat at the table. I don't see it as a big stretch at all to see a consolidation to a P1 as TV contracts expire in a few years.