Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread (August 2018)

[Deleted member 4333]

opcorn:

 

[skyIdub]

You sound like someone who just doesn't understand statistics.

I'll be 100% honest in saying that statistics was the hardest class I took at the UofI....and that includes the engineering classes I had to take. Also, for some inexplicable reason it counted 5 credit hours as opposed to the standard 3.

That being said, I aced the final.

I'm fine with stats, just not the way that they are being used by people who have never played a competitive sport in their entire life and have zero athletic ability, but come into the business side of the sports and have such a dramatic influence on how the game is played. It's the obnoxious amount of time and money invested in fantasy crap that is driven solely by numbers rather than the enjoyment of the players and the game as it's played.

I'm ranting now. Sorry. Back to our regularly scheduled flaming. Statistics suck. Okay now I'm done.

 

[Dbell1981]

It was the excuses and strained narrative framing that set me off. Not even set me off, I feel like my posts get read as angrier than they are. I'm just here having a chat about the Illini, let's all be nice and have a good time.

Let me re-up my thesis statement here:



That's the path to me changing my tune. If those things represent unreasonable expectations, I'm happy to have that conversation.



Okay, maybe read this one as slightly angry. What on earth are you talking about? I don't even know how to respond to that.

The majority of the board is content, nay, excited with the direction of the program and reacts with barely contained fury when it is suggested that the evidence that we are headed in the right direction is anything short of undeniable. As Exhibit A I submit the entire contents of this board, as Exhibit B I submit the fact that we're even having this argument.

Huge difference in being excited about the direction of the program and being excited about where we were at the end of last season and now. I tend to think a few just won't let go of the fact it was a 90% overhaul of the roster and not 50-60%. IMO there are only a few coaches in the country that could have stepped into this role and pulled out the class he wound up with and followed that up with a Liddell AND Whitney commitment. However the responses we see from you suggest this should have happened. Sure he didn't get Nolley or THT, Castleton and a few others. No one wants to throw out the fact that these relationships are pretty new with a lot of these kids either. On the court I thought at the end of the year we started seeing more back cuts developing in coach's offense. He says himself the whole system isn't even close to being completely installed. Then we have also seen the idea thrown out that Chin was a complete waste of a coaching spot because we haven't pulled the whole MIF team the 1st 2 offseasons he's had to recruit. Thats a complete slap in the face to Chin and the fact that Ayo looks up to him enough to take on this enormous challenge says so.

 

[Deleted member 29907]

I think there are two equally-valid takes on this issue. The first is that we lost a lot of players that all have more experience in our program and our system than the incoming freshmen. That's tough and will likely hurt at least a little this upcoming season.

The second take, though, is that it might have been good for the long-term health of the program if it lets us use scholarships for UWM and NEU caliber players on better players. Obviously Finke wouldn't have taken up a long term scholarship and Black is a big loss, but otherwise, it might be some short-term pain for long-term gain. That is, of course, contingent on replacing those open scholarships with better players, which is clearly still a work in progress.

Personally, I am still a little miffed that we lost Mark Smith. The optics are bad, and I, unlike some on this board, still had quite a bit of hope for him. Sure, he looked slow as molasses out there on the floor last year, but that is pretty common for freshmen. He has a great frame and showed some flashes and I was honestly looking forward to his development. I think folks on here were just expecting him to come in and be like a two-and-done, which obviously looks silly in hindsight. All that said, I am not a basketball coach and am not an expert. Maybe he really isn't that good and Cuonzo just took him because of the PR it entails, but I tend to think Cuonzo is pretty good about talent and just can't coach.

MS was still a question Mark for me. You can't teach quickness, you can teach anticipation (or some level of BBIQ) but it remains to the student as to how well they pick it up.

We had, overall, a lower BBIQ and/or young team (in general) last year - heck our Grad Transfer almost cost us a 99.99999% odds win by trying to disrupt a full court heave with no time left. Other than AJ (probably our best weak side help defender), I didn't see a ton of BBIQ with our returning upper class. KN started to get it and has some great games. TF, DMW, showed a high level of IQ on the floor and I'm really looking forward to seeing DMW this year full strength. I thought this team fought all games to the end mentally - they may have tired physically towards the end some due to the style of D.

All that said, at least this coach gets on people for lack of smart play and/or effort.

 

[sacraig]

I'll be 100% honest in saying that statistics was the hardest class I took at the UofI....and that includes the engineering classes I had to take. Also, for some inexplicable reason it counted 5 credit hours as opposed to the standard 3.

That being said, I aced the final.

I'm fine with stats, just not the way that they are being used by people who have never played a competitive sport in their entire life and have zero athletic ability, but come into the business side of the sports and have such a dramatic influence on how the game is played. It's the obnoxious amount of time and money invested in fantasy crap that is driven solely by numbers rather than the enjoyment of the players and the game as it's played.

I'm ranting now. Sorry. Back to our regularly scheduled flaming. Statistics suck. Okay now I'm done.

Fantasy sports are quite dumb, in my opinion, and I am glad the furor has died down around it finally (or at least seems to have done so). That said, I really enjoy the statistics now being applied to baseball specifically. Baseball inherently has such a large sample size that the statistics can be quite accurate and interesting. Sure they don't tell you everything about a player, and athletes can make a conscious decision to work their butts off and try to improve, and obviously the statistics cannot take those sorts of things into account.

That said, they can do a remarkably good job of forecasting if they have enough data to refine the model. That works pretty well in baseball. It works reasonably well in the NBA where they play a lot of games and shoot a lot of shots in a season as well. It's a terrible waste of time in the NFL (and football in general) in my opinion, since there are so few games. I feel like applying it to NCAA basketball is sort of borderline. I do tend to like KenPom but I also think a 30ish game season is not ideal in terms of sample size either.

Oh well, back to our regularly-scheduled programming: "Everyone Argues with S&C Instead of Working".

 

[sacraig]

MS was still a question Mark for me. You can't teach quickness, you can teach anticipation (or some level of BBIQ) but it remains to the student as to how well they pick it up.

We had, overall, a lower BBIQ and/or young team (in general) last year - heck our Grad Transfer almost cost us a 99.99999% odds win by trying to disrupt a full court heave with no time left. Other than AJ (probably our best weak side help defender), I didn't see a ton of BBIQ with our returning upper class. KN started to get it and has some great games. TF, DMW, showed a high level of IQ on the floor and I'm really looking forward to seeing DMW this year full strength. I thought this team fought all games to the end mentally - they may have tired physically towards the end some due to the style of D.

All that said, at least this coach gets on people for lack of smart play and/or effort.

He also rewards them for doing things right and well and is willing to play the hot hand, a concept that was lost on Groce, who tended to stick with his guys through thick and thin.

 

[Illiniguy13]

opcorn:

 

[sacraig]

opcorn:

 

[IlliniinIowa]

Ok. Back to actual recruiting info. So with the visits we have set up with the big men, do we stand a legitimate chance at landing one of them?

 

[Deleted member 29907]

He also rewards them for doing things right and well and is willing to play the hot hand, a concept that was lost on Groce, who tended to stick with his guys through thick and thin.

I certainly don't miss Ford's hand on the wheel there.

 

[bobbob]

So the narrative we are going with now is "last year's team had a lot of hustle and didn't quit despite losing"?
It is no longer "BU can't win with these guys because they aren't his guys, they are too soft and quit" which was what we were running with at the end of the season.

Sorry, it is hard to keep up some times.

 

[Deleted member 29907]

So the narrative we are going with now is "last year's team had a lot of hustle and didn't quit despite losing"?
It is no longer "BU can't win with these guys because they aren't his guys, they are too soft and quit" which was what we were running with at the end of the season.

Sorry, it is hard to keep up some times.

Keeping up with the times is not the issue - assuming this board has one opinion is.

 

[Dbell1981]

Ok. Back to actual recruiting info. So with the visits we have set up with the big men, do we stand a legitimate chance at landing one of them?

Not sure our chances but a 10 month old tape on Jitoboh looks pretty impressive. Kid is a monster. We could really use his presence down low.

 

[Deleted member 643761]

Ok. Back to actual recruiting info. So with the visits we have set up with the big men, do we stand a legitimate chance at landing one of them?

Wow, this is a recruiting thread?

Sorry for my contribution to the pollution. I'm done.

 

[sacraig]

So the narrative we are going with now is "last year's team had a lot of hustle and didn't quit despite losing"?
It is no longer "BU can't win with these guys because they aren't his guys, they are too soft and quit" which was what we were running with at the end of the season.

Sorry, it is hard to keep up some times.

Well, I think some of the players were perhaps playing soft and may have quit a bit, but I also think a lot of them (and the team overall) made dramatic improvements in that regard. Teams are, after all, composed of individuals, and they don't always play on the same page (though ideally they do).

 

[Second and Chalmers]

being excited with the direction of the program does not equate to being content.

Those seem exactly the same to me, but I understand what you're saying. No one is content to be 14-18 long term and I certainly wouldn't accuse anyone of that. Moving on.

You have this black and white view of the basketball program's fans. They agree with you and their wise and brilliant. They don't agree with you, they've been lobotomized.

Nah that's not fair. I thoroughly enjoy honest differences of opinion, that's why I come here. I'm fascinated by people who genuinely thought last year's team was better than I did, many of whom have forgotten more about basketball than I'll ever know.

But the way people constantly leap to the defense of the Loyalty Hivemind gives the game away. They know it's true.

But you're routinely caught up in minimizing any good things apparently out of fear that BU or JW might look good?

First of all, get your facts straight, I'm the biggest Whitman fanboy here.

But I also don't think it's fair at all to say I minimize good things. I would point to the football board for evidence there.

Let's just get down to brass tacks here. It appears that I started this account in 2014. That's mid-Beckman and post-first year Groce. Forget about predicting the future, an attitude toward those years in the present tense that is unrelenting doom and gloom and just total ruined ashes of a once great athletic program is simply a correct, accurate portrayal of what we've seen. I think I'm less of a pessimist than my reputation here would suggest. It's just that Illinois Athletics has been a radioactive nuclear wasteland finding ever more spectacular ways to humiliate itself since Zook's Rose Bowl. That's changing in football, more rapidly than I think some appreciate. Now let's get things on the right track in basketball.

Not sure our chances but a 10 month old tape on Jitoboh looks pretty impressive. Kid is a monster. We could really use his presence down low.

You can definitely see the similarities with Cockburn. Cockburn is the better player, but they're both big, thick, old-school back to the basket brawlers who you can hardly believe are still in high school from a physical standpoint.

Which is interesting because that's not the way things are going in basketball generally. SFA couldn't really acquire guys like that and BU's one OSU team didn't have any, I wonder how a mauler like that would fit in the system. Either Cockburn or Jitoboh would definitely address the rim protection situation, that's for sure.

 

[Illwinsagain]

You can definitely see the similarities with Cockburn. Cockburn is the better player, but they're both big, thick, old-school back to the basket brawlers who you can hardly believe are still in high school from a physical standpoint.

Which is interesting because that's not the way things are going in basketball generally. SFA couldn't really acquire guys like that and BU's one OSU team didn't have any, I wonder how a mauler like that would fit in the system. Either Cockburn or Jitoboh would definitely address the rim protection situation, that's for sure.

Fair question, though neither OSU, nor SFA were in the B1G. I feel that BU is trying to tweak his system. I believe him to be adaptable (insert defensive switch up mid season at OSU). I could be wrong though.

 

[Dbell1981]

We need both if Underwood is gonna run them up and down the court the way he wants to. Those boys will need breathers

 

[YankeeIllini]

FWIW, I'm a BU fan and I think we'll see good results in coming years compared to last dozen (as S&C says, a low bar). Having said that (pulls pin, opens door, throws grenade in, closes door), what do others think of the concept that this is BU's first real chance at landing 4* and 5* players? He certainly didn't chase those types of players seriously at SFA, and had only one year of experience at OSU. Could it be that we're seeing the learning curve in action with BU and recruiting on the biggest stage of all?

 

[Obelix]

being excited with the direction of the program

What does "direction of the program" mean though? Being excited about the "direction of the program" implies some kind of factual evidence, not just blind faith or hope. Reality is that last year we finished our worst season in at least 20+ years (maybe more), recruiting has not been going very well, BU's own first year recruits underachieved (including Mark Smith and Alstork who were highly regarded), and there was a mass exodus via transfer, including some players who were contributors and/or were expected to contribute. That is reality.

I am honest to say that so far in BU's tenure I have not been excited about the "direction of the program", yet I am very hopeful that the "direction of the program" will change. But that is "hope" and an aspiration statement, not excitement about the current direction of the program. And much of that "hope" is based on the fact that if the direction of the program does not change soon, we are looking at another 5+ years with yet another coach who was not able to bring Illinois back to prominence, a program that has become irrelevant for 12 years now.

 

[ChiefIllini]

FWIW, I'm a BU fan and I think we'll see good results in coming years compared to last dozen (as S&C says, a low bar). Having said that (pulls pin, opens door, throws grenade in, closes door), what do others think of the concept that this is BU's first real chance at landing 4* and 5* players? He certainly didn't chase those types of players seriously at SFA, and had only one year of experience at OSU. Could it be that we're seeing the learning curve in action with BU and recruiting on the biggest stage of all?

Well as a HC yeah this is pretty much his first shot at high major talent. He was an assistant coach at high major programs for 7 years. He's had experience recruiting 4/5 star guys. How different is it being a HC rather than an assistant pursuing them? Not sure TBH. But to say he's only been recruiting with the big boys for 3 years is wrong. He's 10 years deep in high major recruiting. I wont go as far to say he should be "better" at getting 4/5 star guys, however. He's already pulled a better recruit than Groce ever did. Whether you want to attribute that solely to Chin is up to you, but I'm at least impressed by that. Now if we end up with a class of 4/5 next year, none of which even sniff the top 150, then I'll start to worry about his recruiting abilities more. For now, on court success is the easiest judge of his abilities as a HBBC.

 

[goillini30]

Fair question, though neither OSU, nor SFA were in the B1G. I feel that BU is trying to tweak his system. I believe him to be adaptable (insert defensive switch up mid season at OSU). I could be wrong though.

Honest question: Why do you think that he didn't do the same thing last season when it became obvious his roster couldn't play the type of D that he wants?

My best guess was that he believed instilling an attitude was more important than a few more wins from a mediocre team.

 

[ILL in IA]

Honest question: Why do you think that he didn't do the same thing last season when it became obvious his roster couldn't play the type of D that he wants?

My best guess was that he believed instilling an attitude was more important than a few more wins from a mediocre team.

Wasnt the problem at OSU more related to the pressure his guards were able to put on the ball? I would say that was maybe the strength of our D last year. Not sure many changes cover up our inability to defend in the paint.

 

[goillini30]

Wasnt the problem at OSU more related to the pressure his guards were able to put on the ball? I would say that was maybe the strength of our D last year. Not sure many changes cover up our inability to defend in the paint.

Don't ask finke and black to deny at all times, let them hang out in help.

 

[Illiniwek06]

Wasnt the problem at OSU more related to the pressure his guards were able to put on the ball?

Yeah, I think they went from aggressive ball denying defense on the perimeter to more pack line, IIRC.