midastouch11
- New York, New York
I agree with the first part of this, but I don't know how long Tate's senior status could keep him in front of TJL, and not because I think he's the second coming of Trey Burke.
Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread (January-March 2016)
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I agree with the first part of this, but I don't know how long Tate's senior status could keep him in front of TJL, and not because I think he's the second coming of Trey Burke.
And we have 2 of them--Finke & JCL, albeit that Finke is a RS.
TownieMatt
CU Expat
- Chicago
+1. This sums it up nicely.
TownieMatt
CU Expat
- Chicago
Agreed. I'm not saying TJL will be stuck behind Tate all season, but I also don't think he walks onto campus and jumps ahead of Tate. He'll need to earn his playing time, which I think he'll do.
I'm in an unusually positive mood when it comes to the future of this program (this will probably change by the end of the day). But it's hard not to be optimistic about next years team (which to be fare, I've thought this many times as an Illini fan.)
Let's say worse case scenario:No Abrams, No Thorne, and no center transfer
Pg: Tate, Lucas
Sg: Nunn, JCL, Jordan
SF: Hill, DJ, Nichols
PF: Black
C: Morgan, Finke
Granted this team is not a world beater. I do think this is a team that would have the talent to make a tournament. Most of our success would be dependent upon how well Lucas develops and if our 4 & 5's can learn to play sufficient defense. Morgan will always be a poor defender, but Finke has the potential to be serviceable on defense in the post.
Best case scenario:
Pg: Abrams, Tate, Lucas
Sg: Nunn, JCL, Jordan
SF: Hill, DJ, Nichols
PF: Black, Finke
C: Thorne, Morgan
Now this is a team that would, in my mind, literally have everything we would need to be successful and make a run in the tournament.
-Toughness and leadership from Abrams(and someone who can sufficiently run our offense), with serviceable backup point guard play
-Possibly the best shooting guard and small forward lineup in the Big Ten, maybe the nation with Hill and Nunn and guys like JCL, Jordan, DJ and Nichols playing back up
-A healthy black gives us the rebounding we desperately need along with toughness and a short midrange game. If Finke continues to develop like he has you get a great shooter that stretches the defense, a nice passer, high basketball IQ.
-Thorne you get a traditional banger with post moves, good rebounding, and serviceable defense. With an ok scoring option as a backup in Morgan.
This is a team that in my mind could at least compete for a Big Ten championship.
If Groce could get this team, have some success, and sure up some spots in recruiting, he really has built a team that could be successful.
The questions that would remain:
How good is Lucas going to be?
Can Groce get another good point guard in the fold, and soon?
Will Groce be able to recruit a true center and will he at least be able to rebound and play serviceable defense?
Can we snag at least 1 decent center or power forward transfer if Thorne can't play next year? Because Finke, Black, and Morgan won't be enough unfortunately.
Let's say worse case scenario:No Abrams, No Thorne, and no center transfer
Pg: Tate, Lucas
Sg: Nunn, JCL, Jordan
SF: Hill, DJ, Nichols
PF: Black
C: Morgan, Finke
Granted this team is not a world beater. I do think this is a team that would have the talent to make a tournament. Most of our success would be dependent upon how well Lucas develops and if our 4 & 5's can learn to play sufficient defense. Morgan will always be a poor defender, but Finke has the potential to be serviceable on defense in the post.
Best case scenario:
Pg: Abrams, Tate, Lucas
Sg: Nunn, JCL, Jordan
SF: Hill, DJ, Nichols
PF: Black, Finke
C: Thorne, Morgan
Now this is a team that would, in my mind, literally have everything we would need to be successful and make a run in the tournament.
-Toughness and leadership from Abrams(and someone who can sufficiently run our offense), with serviceable backup point guard play
-Possibly the best shooting guard and small forward lineup in the Big Ten, maybe the nation with Hill and Nunn and guys like JCL, Jordan, DJ and Nichols playing back up
-A healthy black gives us the rebounding we desperately need along with toughness and a short midrange game. If Finke continues to develop like he has you get a great shooter that stretches the defense, a nice passer, high basketball IQ.
-Thorne you get a traditional banger with post moves, good rebounding, and serviceable defense. With an ok scoring option as a backup in Morgan.
This is a team that in my mind could at least compete for a Big Ten championship.
If Groce could get this team, have some success, and sure up some spots in recruiting, he really has built a team that could be successful.
The questions that would remain:
How good is Lucas going to be?
Can Groce get another good point guard in the fold, and soon?
Will Groce be able to recruit a true center and will he at least be able to rebound and play serviceable defense?
Can we snag at least 1 decent center or power forward transfer if Thorne can't play next year? Because Finke, Black, and Morgan won't be enough unfortunately.
No I am not basing this off his rankings. Look at towniematt's posts. That's why I think he could possibly red-shirt. And as others have already said, his size and young age also work against him earning minutes so early. There is no way you can say he's better than Tate right now given he still plays in high school. The competition is completely different, but I'm sure you understand that.
Why are you so confident he will play early? I also think he has a very bright future but I haven't seen him play. I'm assuming you have, so why do you think his talent will translate so quickly? I'm interested to know because if he is good enough to earn big minutes next year our team could be special.
Serious Late
- Peoria via Denver via Ann Arbor via Albuquerque vi
Except JCL was vastly different in terms of ranking and perception coming out of high school and Finke played zero minutes as a true Freshman.
If Abrams comes back healthy, hopefully TJL can fill in for 10 minutes a game as a 3rd PG if he isn't redshirted.
I think by the Big Ten season, assuming TA is healthy, TJL is the main back up. This team has the potential to score a lot of points and watching nobody guard Tate is just painful and will hamper us. Chet could still find ways to score, but JT cannot. Yes, it is hard to sit a senior, but it has been done before.
TownieMatt
CU Expat
- Chicago
@jrich
I think the thing you might be missing is that in two years (2017/2018), TJL needs to be our starting PG and play a ton of minutes. If he redshirts next year, we'd then be asking him to do that having never played a college game.
I think the thing you might be missing is that in two years (2017/2018), TJL needs to be our starting PG and play a ton of minutes. If he redshirts next year, we'd then be asking him to do that having never played a college game.
midastouch11
- New York, New York
If he redshirts next year he's also part of the 2017 class, which is already prepared to make class balance difficult.
Unless it's a big guy like Finke, you generally don't want to take a non medical red shirt, IMO. Spending a year of scholarship there is not a good return on that "investment" when there are so many other comparable players available each season.
Joel Goodson
- how was I to know, she was with the Russians too?
Good post, but substitute Froling (hopefully) for Big Mike.
<unrelated to your post>
Barring injury, no way is Lucas redshirting.
There is no way Lucas redshirts, even if he is not good and ready to play. Even if Abrams comes back, two injuries back-to-back is a concern regarding minutes, level of play, and endurance. Groce will not risk going into the season with Tate as the only option at PG, and Abrams is more of a bonus rather than an option in this case.
Jabber Jabber
- Champaign, IL
I'm not real high on TJL like some, but I absolutely think he should immediately jump ahead of Tate on the depth chart next year. Tate isn't that quick of a defender so I think TJL could come in and be equal to Tate in terms of defense.
Tate's stats so far this season per ESPN:
2.5 PPG
1.3 RPG
2.7 APG
1.2 Turnovers per game
40% from the floor
61.5% from the free throw line
And of course 0% from three
There were a decent number of people claiming to expect a jump in shooting percentages from Tate this season (he's putting in the work on the gun, countless shots in the offseason, etc.) but anyone who has seen him shoot knows his shot will never be collegiate caliber. A 2-1 assist-to-turnover ratio is good, but not good enough to keep TJL from jumping him. Give me another threat from the outside and watch this offense soar.
midastouch11
- New York, New York
I agree 100%.
I don't think that really factors in. Groce doesn't have the luxury to play for the future. He has to play the players that help him win now. I remember Groce saying the decision to red-shirt was mainly based on whether or not that player can contribute ~10 mpg. I think it's really that simple. If TJL is good enough to play that much then he'll play. Otherwise he'll redshirt. Plus I don't think lack of playing time is a huge deal. Finke is doing just fine. There would be growing pains for sure, but the reward of having a PG playing at a high level for 4 years will greatly outweigh that lack of playing time.
Of course, correct.:thumb:
People have been calling for a point guard and now that we have one coming in want to redshirt him? Makes absolutely no sense to me. Get him in the system and playing so that he can contribute as soon as he is ready.
I think we make too big of a deal of ready. There are also lots of gray in between ready and not ready. Finke brings a nice outside game, but I don't think he is totally ready in terms of offensive and defensive post play. JCL is going to be a great player, but he isn't there yet, still mostly just a spot up shooter & trying to figure everything out on defense. They both have some skills that we need, one of right now is a warm body on the bench, but both will get better and are not what I would consider totally ready, but with only 2 bigs, Finke has to play, someone of JCL, Jordan, DJ has to play backup 2/3, with Hill forced to play more 4 playing is becoming starting.
I think TJL likely will have the same problem/opportunity, as a team we will be somewhere between acceptable/mediocre to not acceptable at pg depending on Tracy's comeback. The bar to earn some playing time at backup could be as high as being barely better than JT to just show up because you are the only other pg. He will get the opportunity to earn some playing time next year, he may of may not end up as 2 or higher on the depth chart, but if he ends up our starting pg it is just as likely to be because he wins the smallest midget contest as it is because he is our Trey Burke. Either way, I don't expect pg to be a strength of next year's team...but we can be very good at 2-4 and that along with senior leadership will need to carry us to good things.
Deleted member 4960
D
Guest
Tate has also played with a bum shooting hand most of this year. No he is not a great pg but he is steady with the ball and doesn't turn it over much. His defense has improved and I don't see a young freshman immediately jumping him for minutes next year. He may improve throughout the year and then start taking minutes? We will have to see.
Another thing to consider is that DJW might be able to play some point next year.
You think a true freshman PG not currently ranked in the top 150 by Rivals is going to beat out a 6th year senior who is, even now, the unquestioned leader of the team? Listen, I'm pumped to have Lucas on the team and I think he'll have a bright future here, but I can't see this scenario playing out if Tracy is healthy.
I look at it this way. If Tate is our starting PG next year we probably won't make the tourney again. TLJ & Abrams are logical choices, but I think there is a chance for DJ, JCL, Hill and Nunn. Yes, I said Nunn. Nunn has really upped his handle; evident from an increased ability to penetrate under control and go left. Despite being a focal point on offense he seldom turns the ball over. I sometimes dream of a lineup like this next season:
1G Nunn
2G JCL
3G Hill
4 Black/Finke
5. Thorne/???
Wild cards include Abrams, DJ, AJ, TJL and Kipper. Plug them in as needed above. I maintain that Tate & Morgan should be used only as backups if all the other players are hurt, in foul trouble or the game is decided.
1G Nunn
2G JCL
3G Hill
4 Black/Finke
5. Thorne/???
Wild cards include Abrams, DJ, AJ, TJL and Kipper. Plug them in as needed above. I maintain that Tate & Morgan should be used only as backups if all the other players are hurt, in foul trouble or the game is decided.
I don't think people realize how hard it is to come back from a torn Achilles. I'm sure Tracy will provide terrific leadership next year and I'm guessing he'll "start at PG," but there's a very real chance he won't have the quickness to be a functional B1G guard, especially on defense. He's never been a gifted shooter or passer and I doubt he turns into one now. I think people feel like the Achilles injury is equal in severity to the torn ACL the year before, but ACL surgery has come a long way. The current injury has a much more grave prognosis. I'm hoping for 15 minutes per game from Tracy playing at a below-average level and partially making up for it by being a coach on the floor and the team's motivational catalyst. If TJL isn't ready for prime time next year, I think we'll see a 3-headed monster approach at PG and it won't be real pretty. Hope I'm wrong!
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