Under-the-Radar 2017 College Basketball Recruits Who Can Have an Instant Impact | Bleacher Report (via http://ble.ac/teamstream-) http://teamstre.am/2lCML91
Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread (January-March 2017)
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Por que no los dos?
I agree. The outrage over this has gone to crazy levels the last couple of years. Back in the day, not that long ago, nobody would have thought twice about it. This is doubly true if the trailing team is still actively playing defense, you finish the game. Also, these are high school kids.
FeelYourPaign
- So Cal
I agree. When the defense concedes the game, the offense accepts that. Until then, however, game on.
chief78
- Florida
Yeah, Coral Springs was pressuring and fouling constantly in the 4th quarter and their coach called a timeout with 39 seconds left in the game, so that will give you an idea of how this game was going. Also keep in mind that these same two teams met in the regional final last year with Coral Springs winning in double overtime, so there is some history between the two teams.
Thanks for sharing. It is wise to periodically tap the brakes on the hype train that forums like this tend to board on incoming recruits. There are definitely some "YMCA ball" moments in this... but the video confirms what we already knew: that with some coaching, discipline, and being surrounded by other excellent players, TF has the potential to be a special player for us. I'm really looking forward to having talent and depth at the PG position for Illinois.
chief78
- Florida
This was a regional semifinal away game against a good opponent - Lake Worth. I don't believe there were 5-6 turnovers in 2 minutes - as this film did not show the entire game and was just clips obviously shot by a Lake Worth fan. This is also the game where Trent scored 32 points, 13 rebounds and 6 assists, so the film certainly does not show it all. Sure Trent will need some adjustments, like most high school players when they hit the D1 level.
Trent finished with 29 pts and 9 rebounds in the regional final last night against the defending 8A state Champion, Coral Springs.
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Hope the kid makes it to campus. He definitely seems to have that special personality quality to him that made dee brown a star here. Dee happened to be pretty freaking good at basketball too, if Trent is half the player we will all look back favorably on his time here in the future.
Wittsdream
- Chicago
Smith! With his size, court vision and shooting range, he's a future NBA PG. Frazier just needs some polishing, but I like his all around feel for the game quite a bit, just not as much as Smith.
Now, in two years' time, we could have Smith, TJL, Frazier, JCL and DMW in the backcourt. With Tilmon, Finke, Black and Nichols at the 4/5, that is gonna be a very versatile team given the right guidance!
Wittsdream
- Chicago
That's the paradox you get into when attempting to project high school stats to the next level.
On the one hand, all of these kids are going to be taking a huge step up in competition, from a skills, physical and mental standpoint, so you figure their high school numbers will suffer when they matriculate to college.
OTOH, all of these kids are the star players on their respective high school teams, and are therefore the primary focus of opposing defenses. In a recent article, Frazier's H.S. coach (Matthew Colin) said he is constantly facing gimmick defenses, like box-and-ones or triangle-and-twos, and still puts up gaudy numbers. Scoring aside, he has shown the ability to defer to his teammates with the correct pass, and he has the athleticism to rebound the ball very well from the guard spot.
If both Smith and Frazier find their way to Champaign, the program will have a tandem that in a couple years will be giving opponents fits. Then you have TJL, JCL, DMW and Pickett, each of whom brings a different strength to the table, and have the potential to be very productive all around guards by the time they're finished with college.
AJ had a great 3 pt % in highschool, but that hasn't exactly translated. There are a lot of factors that determine how well someone adjusts.
If a great 3 pt shooter in HS struggles in college, not sure why you would infer that poorer HS 3 pt shooters might fare better for some amorphous reason. Anything can happen, of course, sometimes guys improve. But it's WAY harder to shoot threes in college than in HS, due to actual defense being played. So assuming HS 3 pt shooting percentage somehow just doesn't matter either way strikes me as naive. Poor HS 3 pt shooting is not a bullish factor for good college 3 pt shooting.
What I am saying is that just looking at shooting percentages without context is not a good predictor of how well a guy will do in college. Some guys get to college and really improve their stroke because they are getting much better coaching. Some guys already have a great stroke and get to college and struggle because it is harder to get their shot off. I'm not saying that HS 3 pt % doesn't matter, but that there are large number of determinants that will affect how a player adjusts and taking any one of them on it's own is not going to be particularly helpful unless you can control for the variance in the others.
Wittsdream
- Chicago
Luther Head is a prime example of a player whose scouting report as a high school player did not include "deadly 3-pt shooter." He certainly transformed himself into one gradually through college.
Kendall Gill would be another example of a player who transformed himself into a terrific 3-pt shooter in college (taking a major leap physically from his sophomore to junior year).
Then you have the case of Nick Anderson, who was such a physical specimen at the high school level, that he played primarily in the post and wasn't expected to be an outside threat at Illinois.
Now it took him a year to get there, but he did evolve into a decent 3-pt shooter by his junior year at Illinois, and ended up being a consistent deep threat for the entirety of his NBA career.
Those are just a few Illini examples, off the top of my head.
While it's pretty easy to suggest a few outliers who improved in college, of all the predictors of future 3% shooting performance, I would bet anything that past 3% shooting performance is the most highly correlated predictor.
If you don't work on/change your shot.
This is just a trivial, time-wasting exercise: I was thinking about an alternate timeline for Illini recruiting this decade and wondering how things might have worked out if we'd gotten very, very lucky and had remarkable intuition when projecting development at the college level. If something like the following had played out, where do you think the program would be?
I'm only including players I believe we could have landed if we'd prioritized them properly (some may not agree that all of these players were attainable). Some attrition is assumed (early NBA departures, transfers, etc.) - I think the scholarship situation more or less works out the same. I'm still assuming Weber gets fired after 2011-12 and John Groce is hired:
2010
Meyers Leonard
Rayvonte Rice (instead of Jereme Richmond)
Lenzelle Smith, Jr or Walt Lemon, Jr (instead of Crandall Head)
2011
Nnanna Egwu
Nic Moore (instead of Myke Henry)
Frank Kaminsky (instead of Ibby Djimde)
Roosevelt Jones (instead of Mike Shaw)
Chasson Randle (instead of Tracy Abrams - I know we wanted both, but I think we could have gotten Randle if we'd prioritized him above Abrams)
*roll a scholly over instead of taking Devin Langford
2012
Fred VanVleet
Caris LeVert
2013
Malcolm Hill
Maverick Morgan
Sterling Brown (instead of Jaylon Tate)
Alec Peters (instead of Austin Colbert)
Ben Moore (instead of Kendrick Nunn - with so much ammunition on the wings, another big would make more sense)
2014
Leron Black
Michael Finke
Jordan Caroline
2015
Jalen Coleman-Lands
Shake Milton or (more realistically) Tyler Hall (instead of DJ Williams)
Glynn Watson or Luwane Pipkins (instead of Aaron Jordan)
Evan Boudreaux (instead of Darius Paul)
Kipper Nichols (transfer from Tulane)
2016
Te'Jon Lucas (I think he's a keeper!)
On this alternate timeline, where are we at right now? Despite Groce's coaching, are we back to top-15 status nationally? I think so. I think a lineup like this would be 23-5 and gunning for a #2 seed:
PG: Glynn Watson/Te'Jon Lucas
G: Tyler Hall/JCL/Sterling Brown
G/F: Malcolm Hill/Sterling Brown/Jordan Caroline/Kipper Nichols
F: Alec Peters/Ben Moore/Leron Black/Michael Finke
C: Maverick Morgan/Evan Boudreaux/Michael Finke
I'm only including players I believe we could have landed if we'd prioritized them properly (some may not agree that all of these players were attainable). Some attrition is assumed (early NBA departures, transfers, etc.) - I think the scholarship situation more or less works out the same. I'm still assuming Weber gets fired after 2011-12 and John Groce is hired:
2010
Meyers Leonard
Rayvonte Rice (instead of Jereme Richmond)
Lenzelle Smith, Jr or Walt Lemon, Jr (instead of Crandall Head)
2011
Nnanna Egwu
Nic Moore (instead of Myke Henry)
Frank Kaminsky (instead of Ibby Djimde)
Roosevelt Jones (instead of Mike Shaw)
Chasson Randle (instead of Tracy Abrams - I know we wanted both, but I think we could have gotten Randle if we'd prioritized him above Abrams)
*roll a scholly over instead of taking Devin Langford
2012
Fred VanVleet
Caris LeVert
2013
Malcolm Hill
Maverick Morgan
Sterling Brown (instead of Jaylon Tate)
Alec Peters (instead of Austin Colbert)
Ben Moore (instead of Kendrick Nunn - with so much ammunition on the wings, another big would make more sense)
2014
Leron Black
Michael Finke
Jordan Caroline
2015
Jalen Coleman-Lands
Shake Milton or (more realistically) Tyler Hall (instead of DJ Williams)
Glynn Watson or Luwane Pipkins (instead of Aaron Jordan)
Evan Boudreaux (instead of Darius Paul)
Kipper Nichols (transfer from Tulane)
2016
Te'Jon Lucas (I think he's a keeper!)
On this alternate timeline, where are we at right now? Despite Groce's coaching, are we back to top-15 status nationally? I think so. I think a lineup like this would be 23-5 and gunning for a #2 seed:
PG: Glynn Watson/Te'Jon Lucas
G: Tyler Hall/JCL/Sterling Brown
G/F: Malcolm Hill/Sterling Brown/Jordan Caroline/Kipper Nichols
F: Alec Peters/Ben Moore/Leron Black/Michael Finke
C: Maverick Morgan/Evan Boudreaux/Michael Finke
Deron Williams and a Luther Head might disagree that poor HS shooters can improve
I think most of those guys were gettable, but didn't Ben Moore turn us down? Anyway, I think your point might be, and I COMPLETELY agree, that building a foundation around really good attainable HS talent would have put Illinois in a much better/more stable position. One of my biggest gripes about recruiting was missing out on the attainable HS player (i.e. Glynn Watson) and filling in gaps with transfers. When you grab players from other systems, these players come in with different defined roles and habits. Instead with the HS player you get a blank canvass and are able to develop more cohesion on the team. This is why I really like what Lovie Smith is doing with the football team. He's going to build that program brick by brick. We may not see results right away, but Lovie has a blueprint that will provide sustainable success.
BananaShampoo
Captain 'Paign
- Phoenix, AZ
Even with that talent I don't think we'd be all that much better than now. I feel like much of the talent might have been wasted or squandered, and probably not developed like it should have been. Yeah, we'd have probably made the tourney a couple more times, but doubt we'd have gone far. And also, Chasson Randle wasn't coming here regardless once he got the Stanford offer...
Never said that, of course. And nothing like quoting 2 out of a million to prove your point. And Deron Williams didn't have the rep of a bad hs shooter. You should have mentioned Kendall Gill.
I never put much stock into high school shooting %. There are many factors that affect it from bad shot selection to bad score keeping.
Believe shooting can be improved but also believe shots will be more contested in college. Having a good PG helps greatly.
Not trying to be a downer, just believe the freshmen are going tho have a hard time breaking into the lineup of Finke, Black, Nichols, JCL, and TJL. It will be absolutely great if they do. Hopefully their playing time increases as the season goes on in conference play and they are given some time in the early easier games.
Not trying to be a downer, just believe the freshmen are going tho have a hard time breaking into the lineup of Finke, Black, Nichols, JCL, and TJL. It will be absolutely great if they do. Hopefully their playing time increases as the season goes on in conference play and they are given some time in the early easier games.
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