Under-the-Radar 2017 College Basketball Recruits Who Can Have an Instant Impact | Bleacher Report (via http://ble.ac/teamstream-) http://teamstre.am/2lCML91
If you could pick between Trent Frazier and Mark Smith, who would you pick?
I've never understood why this riles people up? In the grand scheme of things. it's just two more points. As someone who has been on both sides I never thought twice about it.
I agree. The outrage over this has gone to crazy levels the last couple of years. Back in the day, not that long ago, nobody would have thought twice about it. This is doubly true if the trailing team is still actively playing defense, you finish the game. Also, these are high school kids.
I agree. The outrage over this has gone to crazy levels the last couple of years. Back in the day, not that long ago, nobody would have thought twice about it. This is doubly true if the trailing team is still actively playing defense, you finish the game. Also, these are high school kids.
Thanks for sharing. It is wise to periodically tap the brakes on the hype train that forums like this tend to board on incoming recruits. There are definitely some "YMCA ball" moments in this... but the video confirms what we already knew: that with some coaching, discipline, and being surrounded by other excellent players, TF has the potential to be a special player for us. I'm really looking forward to having talent and depth at the PG position for Illinois.This is just one game.. but.. this is a game that showed more than highlights.
Trent is going to need some polishing.. This is from one of his recent games.
https://youtu.be/hjDP7-_Somk
This is just one game.. but.. this is a game that showed more than highlights.
Trent is going to need some polishing.. This is from one of his recent games.
https://youtu.be/hjDP7-_Somk
I can't figure out how the heck to post it on here for some reason. Gonna have to click the link.
It's ugly. It's very ugly. I think he had 5-6 turnovers in a matter of 2 minutes. Took terrible shots at the rim.. Just one game.. But he's not coming in and replacing Lucas.
If you could pick between Trent Frazier and Mark Smith, who would you pick?
Just looked up stats
Smith 3 pt % 37.2
Pickett. 34
Frasier. 32
All have great 2 pt .% but guessing a large amount of lay-ups. Not going to be instant success.
Just looked up stats
Smith 3 pt % 37.2
Pickett. 34
Frasier. 32
All have great 2 pt .% but guessing a large amount of lay-ups. Not going to be instant success.
AJ had a great 3 pt % in highschool, but that hasn't exactly translated. There are a lot of factors that determine how well someone adjusts.
If a great 3 pt shooter in HS struggles in college, not sure why you would infer that poorer HS 3 pt shooters might fare better for some amorphous reason. Anything can happen, of course, sometimes guys improve. But it's WAY harder to shoot threes in college than in HS, due to actual defense being played. So assuming HS 3 pt shooting percentage somehow just doesn't matter either way strikes me as naive. Poor HS 3 pt shooting is not a bullish factor for good college 3 pt shooting.
What I am saying is that just looking at shooting percentages without context is not a good predictor of how well a guy will do in college. Some guys get to college and really improve their stroke because they are getting much better coaching. Some guys already have a great stroke and get to college and struggle because it is harder to get their shot off. I'm not saying that HS 3 pt % doesn't matter, but that there are large number of determinants that will affect how a player adjusts and taking any one of them on it's own is not going to be particularly helpful unless you can control for the variance in the others.
What I am saying is that just looking at shooting percentages without context is not a good predictor of how well a guy will do in college. Some guys get to college and really improve their stroke because they are getting much better coaching. Some guys already have a great stroke and get to college and struggle because it is harder to get their shot off. I'm not saying that HS 3 pt % doesn't matter, but that there are large number of determinants that will affect how a player adjusts and taking any one of them on it's own is not going to be particularly helpful unless you can control for the variance in the others.
While it's pretty easy to suggest a few outliers who improved in college, of all the predictors of future 3% shooting performance, I would bet anything that past 3% shooting performance is the most highly correlated predictor.
If a great 3 pt shooter in HS struggles in college, not sure why you would infer that poorer HS 3 pt shooters might fare better for some amorphous reason. Anything can happen, of course, sometimes guys improve. But it's WAY harder to shoot threes in college than in HS, due to actual defense being played. So assuming HS 3 pt shooting percentage somehow just doesn't matter either way strikes me as naive. Poor HS 3 pt shooting is not a bullish factor for good college 3 pt shooting.
This is just a trivial, time-wasting exercise: I was thinking about an alternate timeline for Illini recruiting this decade and wondering how things might have worked out if we'd gotten very, very lucky and had remarkable intuition when projecting development at the college level. If something like the following had played out, where do you think the program would be?
I'm only including players I believe we could have landed if we'd prioritized them properly (some may not agree that all of these players were attainable). Some attrition is assumed (early NBA departures, transfers, etc.) - I think the scholarship situation more or less works out the same. I'm still assuming Weber gets fired after 2011-12 and John Groce is hired:
2010
Meyers Leonard
Rayvonte Rice (instead of Jereme Richmond)
Lenzelle Smith, Jr or Walt Lemon, Jr (instead of Crandall Head)
2011
Nnanna Egwu
Nic Moore (instead of Myke Henry)
Frank Kaminsky (instead of Ibby Djimde)
Roosevelt Jones (instead of Mike Shaw)
Chasson Randle (instead of Tracy Abrams - I know we wanted both, but I think we could have gotten Randle if we'd prioritized him above Abrams)
*roll a scholly over instead of taking Devin Langford
2012
Fred VanVleet
Caris LeVert
2013
Malcolm Hill
Maverick Morgan
Sterling Brown (instead of Jaylon Tate)
Alec Peters (instead of Austin Colbert)
Ben Moore (instead of Kendrick Nunn - with so much ammunition on the wings, another big would make more sense)
2014
Leron Black
Michael Finke
Jordan Caroline
2015
Jalen Coleman-Lands
Shake Milton or (more realistically) Tyler Hall (instead of DJ Williams)
Glynn Watson or Luwane Pipkins (instead of Aaron Jordan)
Evan Boudreaux (instead of Darius Paul)
Kipper Nichols (transfer from Tulane)
2016
Te'Jon Lucas (I think he's a keeper!)
On this alternate timeline, where are we at right now? Despite Groce's coaching, are we back to top-15 status nationally? I think so. I think a lineup like this would be 23-5 and gunning for a #2 seed:
PG: Glynn Watson/Te'Jon Lucas
G: Tyler Hall/JCL/Sterling Brown
G/F: Malcolm Hill/Sterling Brown/Jordan Caroline/Kipper Nichols
F: Alec Peters/Ben Moore/Leron Black/Michael Finke
C: Maverick Morgan/Evan Boudreaux/Michael Finke
Even with that talent I don't think we'd be all that much better than now. I feel like much of the talent might have been wasted or squandered, and probably not developed like it should have been. Yeah, we'd have probably made the tourney a couple more times, but doubt we'd have gone far. And also, Chasson Randle wasn't coming here regardless once he got the Stanford offer...This is just a trivial, time-wasting exercise: I was thinking about an alternate timeline for Illini recruiting this decade and wondering how things might have worked out if we'd gotten very, very lucky and had remarkable intuition when projecting development at the college level. If something like the following had played out, where do you think the program would be?
I'm only including players I believe we could have landed if we'd prioritized them properly (some may not agree that all of these players were attainable). Some attrition is assumed (early NBA departures, transfers, etc.) - I think the scholarship situation more or less works out the same. I'm still assuming Weber gets fired after 2011-12 and John Groce is hired:
2010
Meyers Leonard
Rayvonte Rice (instead of Jereme Richmond)
Lenzelle Smith, Jr or Walt Lemon, Jr (instead of Crandall Head)
2011
Nnanna Egwu
Nic Moore (instead of Myke Henry)
Frank Kaminsky (instead of Ibby Djimde)
Roosevelt Jones (instead of Mike Shaw)
Chasson Randle (instead of Tracy Abrams - I know we wanted both, but I think we could have gotten Randle if we'd prioritized him above Abrams)
*roll a scholly over instead of taking Devin Langford
2012
Fred VanVleet
Caris LeVert
2013
Malcolm Hill
Maverick Morgan
Sterling Brown (instead of Jaylon Tate)
Alec Peters (instead of Austin Colbert)
Ben Moore (instead of Kendrick Nunn - with so much ammunition on the wings, another big would make more sense)
2014
Leron Black
Michael Finke
Jordan Caroline
2015
Jalen Coleman-Lands
Shake Milton or (more realistically) Tyler Hall (instead of DJ Williams)
Glynn Watson or Luwane Pipkins (instead of Aaron Jordan)
Evan Boudreaux (instead of Darius Paul)
Kipper Nichols (transfer from Tulane)
2016
Te'Jon Lucas (I think he's a keeper!)
On this alternate timeline, where are we at right now? Despite Groce's coaching, are we back to top-15 status nationally? I think so. I think a lineup like this would be 23-5 and gunning for a #2 seed:
PG: Glynn Watson/Te'Jon Lucas
G: Tyler Hall/JCL/Sterling Brown
G/F: Malcolm Hill/Sterling Brown/Jordan Caroline/Kipper Nichols
F: Alec Peters/Ben Moore/Leron Black/Michael Finke
C: Maverick Morgan/Evan Boudreaux/Michael Finke
Deron Williams and a Luther Head might disagree that poor HS shooters can improve
As far as three point % goes I can't speak for Frazier and Pickett but from ththe games I watched of Smiths if he stops pulling up from the volleyball line multiple times a game his % would be a lot higher