Yeah agree with all this, I oversimplified it.
Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread (July-August 2016)
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Yeah agree with all this, I oversimplified it.
Sign of the apocalypse.
t7nich
- Central IL
roll out the "that's not a dream, that's a nightmare" responses
You beat me to it
Too many people are undervaluing Frazier. He's on a new AAU team this summer and isn't getting the opportunity to really show what he's capable of. If he was a local kid, everyone would be a lot more excited about his game. He's long and is a plus shooter. He'd be a great complement to Te'Jon Lucas.
Nobody ever said Trent Frazier was the program savior. We all know we need Tilmon and 1 of Goodwin/Lewis in order to improve the program.
Right. It says he's undervalued.
Sorry, when I watch his film and look at his offer list I don't see undervalued. Obviously there is room for judgement and disagreement on this player - but I find it hard to believe anyone sees him as a definite, no question Big Ten starter.
He allegedly quit his spring AAU team as he was not getting playing time.
What team is he on now?
Will be interested to see how he does.
If he was local kid and quit Mac Irvin Fire, or another local team due to not playing he would get a lot of questions.
This is time of year where the better juniors really show if they can compete at the higher levels in AAU. I realize it is chaotic, but it is how they are judged against the other top players.
His offer list looks pretty good considering he has other high major offers from Florida, Kansas State, Mississippi State and Baylor. I would suspect that other offers start rolling in during and after the July evaluation period.
3 of those offers (Florida, MSU, & Baylor) are per his Dad. You know how that goes.
Lots of fake offers out there.
What I see is a toolsy prospect who may or may not put it together. Groce hasn't gotten DJax, Brunson, Evans, Perrantes, et al over the last few years and probably won't get Scruggs this year, so he's betting on Frazier's set of raw tools. Frazier has decent length and athleticism with an above average outside shot. Not sure he's a great ball handler or decision maker, and he definitely needs to put on weight. He hasn't proven himself against elite competition, which is why the offers aren't there.
My sense is that Groce is betting on one of Te'Jon, Da'Monte, and Frazier to significantly outplay his ranking. It's not a total crapshoot: each has certain obvious gifts.
3 of those offers (Florida, MSU, & Baylor) are per his Dad. You know how that goes.
Lots of fake offers out there.
So do you buy that less than something coming from Irvin or the typical AAU coach?
I would argue TJL had a similar offer lists compared to Frazier per 247, couple of power conference offers from lower tier teams, then offers from local schools near them.
Joel Goodson
- respect my decision™
+infinity
Which isn't to say it's going to happen. Just that there's a good chance and this is Groce's mindset WRT the PG position.
The betting/gambling analogy seems to fit all recruiting, you get 13 bets, you try to put them on the best bets possible and scatter them around a bit for positional balance. So the question becomes is Frazier a bet that Groce really wants to make or just a bet he has to make or likely somewhere in between.
Definitely somewhere in between. Every coach in the country would prefer to take 5-star talent every time. Failing that, every coach would prefer to take top-75 prospects virtually every time. After that, you're looking at low 4-star/high 3-star kids and thinking about system fit, projected development, culture fit, and isolated plus-level attributes that should translate (explosive first step, elite reaction time, a go-to scoring move, body control, etc.). If you find a raw kid that needs to develop, but you see a couple of traits that could make him special in your system, you roll the dice.
"Give me point guards, or give me death"
Like a couple of other posters, I am in the camp that believes Coach Groce is a good evaluator of talent. He just hasn't reeled in all the top talent that he has recruited. (Note: it does appear he whiffed on Ulis)
But, he got Caris Lavert to commit to him at Ohio and Lavert just got drafted 20th pick in the NBA draft (and that is after two major injuries) He was also in on Jamal Murray before the blue bloods came along if memory serves and JM went top 5-ish.
There are other examples that others have posted. Therefore, if Coach Groce is recruiting Trent Frazier and trying to get him up here for a visit, then he is probably doing it b/c he knows how much potential the young man has and wants to lock him down before top programs or quality local programs like Florida, FSU and Miami get involved.
If he can land Frazier, pair him with a good combo guard like Damonte coming on the heels of TJL, then we have the foundation to recruit some bigs and wings that want to play with good to elite PGs. I trust Groce that he can develop Lucas and Frazier into really good PGs which will help tremendously to land others.
Like a couple of other posters, I am in the camp that believes Coach Groce is a good evaluator of talent. He just hasn't reeled in all the top talent that he has recruited. (Note: it does appear he whiffed on Ulis)
But, he got Caris Lavert to commit to him at Ohio and Lavert just got drafted 20th pick in the NBA draft (and that is after two major injuries) He was also in on Jamal Murray before the blue bloods came along if memory serves and JM went top 5-ish.
There are other examples that others have posted. Therefore, if Coach Groce is recruiting Trent Frazier and trying to get him up here for a visit, then he is probably doing it b/c he knows how much potential the young man has and wants to lock him down before top programs or quality local programs like Florida, FSU and Miami get involved.
If he can land Frazier, pair him with a good combo guard like Damonte coming on the heels of TJL, then we have the foundation to recruit some bigs and wings that want to play with good to elite PGs. I trust Groce that he can develop Lucas and Frazier into really good PGs which will help tremendously to land others.
A lot of that has to do with the fact Groce saw him as was sold before he really started to blow up. When he blew up he told everyone he isn't taking anymore teams interest. I'm sure he would of had a few more major offers. No blue blood but there would of been a few more better offers
ILLtilIdie
- STL
Wisconsin was one of those schools that tried to get in at the end. TJL should be a solid PG as an upper classman and might even be an upgrade from what we have now depending on how TA bounces back. Frazier IMO looks a little more talented than him in terms of shot and athleticism. I think he would be an excellent pick up and a great fit in Groce's system.
Offer list? That argument drives me bonkers. I can give you a list of guys playing in the NBA, some of whom are all stars, who didn't have a "wow" offer list. Damian Lillard was a 2 star per Rivals and the number 48 point guard according to ESPN. Steph Curry was a 3 star according to Rivals and was only offered a walk on spot to his father's alma mater before going to Davidson. Gordon Hayward was outside the top 150 with his top offer being from Purdue. Elfrid Payton was a 2 star and went to Louisiana-Layfette before declaring early. I can continue, if need be.
On the other hand, there are 5 star guys with long offer sheets such as Scotty Hopson, BJ Mullens, Paul Harris, Donte Green, etc. who didn't pan out.
The point is that the offer list does not determine a player's success. Plus, after striking out on multiple point guard prospects the last few years, we're not in a position to say no someone who could benefit our team.
You are right in saying that there are a few examples of guys who had extremely poor offer sheets and defied all odds to become not only successful in college, but make and become a great player in the NBA. You're also right that there are five star guys with great offers who turned into nothing. But the point is, both of those occurrences are extremely rare. For all of the people who do this for a living at a high (p5) level to be completely and 100% wrong about a kid being able to play does not happen often. That's why the argument "Look at his offer sheet" holds weight. It's a rule. One with exceptions, certainly. But one that can be used by us who do not do this for a job to see the thoughts of those that do.
Nothing to do with Frazier, but not sure what the point is here. Chances that you will have success with 5* players are a lot higher than having success with 2*/3* players. There is absolutely no argument about that. The fact that some 2*/3* players have had success or that some 5* players did not, means little with regard to your overall chances to succeed.
Also, your list of 5* players who "didn't pan out" has major faults. You certainly confuse success in the NBA with college success. Donte Green was a 17.7 ppg / 7.2 rpg / 2 apg player in college as a freshman. Did not pan out? Wow, that is news to me. Paul Harris was a 12ppg / 8 rpg player during college. Scotty Hopson was a 17ppg player as a junior, and 13ppg in his career. Even BJ Mullens, who definitely left college too early (although as a 1st round NBA draft pick), was B1G All-Freshman team and earned the B1G Sixth Man of the Year award. According to your definition, Frankie Williams and Dee Brown (both 5* players) did not pan out either. We'd definitely take a Dee or a Frankie over 2*/3* players.
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