A few thoughts on why we are in a good position (of course, with an Illinois slant):
MSU already has a loaded class (four 4* recruits) including one wing. It's great to get an offer from Izzo, but it's going to be hard place to get playing time. MSU could disappear as an option for both THT and Henry--neither are Izzo's first pick for his last spot. In the end, I don't think either THT or Henry go to MSU.
Like us, Butler and Xavier have 0 recruits for 2018. They are both small schools with under 5,000 undergrads. That may be attractive to some recruits. I could see Henry at Butler and Castleton and Ayo at Xavier. However, Illinois has a lot to offer: academic standing, BIG status, national TV (great for parents), high-powered offense, chance to play early. I give Butler the edge for Henry; we have the edge over Xavier for Ayo and Castleton, largely due to coaching relationships.
Kansas could get Ayo but he's not their top priority. His position may disappear before he gets a chance to commit.
Florida could get Castleton, but I don't think he'll wait an extra year.
The schools that have offered Conditt are too convoluted to figure out. One thing is clear: he's got a national, wide-open field to choose from. I always thought he would be our first commitment, but no longer. He's got too many options and there's no news about what's he thinking.
Of the main schools we are competing with (Kansas, MSU, Xavier, and Butler) we are at the bottom in terms of recent NCAA appearances. Does that matter? It might. That is something that BU must overcome, but he has a lot of good selling points.
My general feeling is we end up with 3 recruits from Ayo, THT, Castleton, Henry, and Conditt. We don't get the other out-of-state recruits.