We better hope that Wilkes takes all his planned visits, because if he suddenly stops, it will not be Illinois. I believe I had mentioned before but I had talked to a coach on the AAU circuit and his statement was that Wilkes will definitely take his visit to IU. That was before he started taking visits. Without much clarification, I took that statement to mean that IU led in that recruitment at that time.
My guess, independent of his statements, is that IU will roll the red carpet on his visit. Wilkes is fully aware that IU is indeed recruiting other players at the position. Assuming that IU does not accept another highly regarded player at SF before his visit (my guess is they will not), they will make a big push for him to commit, pretty much say "we are 100% on you, you are the top priority, you decide to commit right now, we stop recruiting everyone else at that position."
So IMO it will be a huge test what Wilkes does on and after his IU visit.
Agree with most of what you say. Our best shot at Wilkes is that Crean is not that popular with his family. Crean, I'm sure, will put on a great act while they are there, though.