I don't think you can offer any logical proof of that. They work for media that gives them a voice. Do you really think they see all 200 or 300 players they would need to see? Multiple times, over a period of time to see progression? Most of them cover players their audience, the fans of the school they want subscriptions from, are recruiting. I know of no reason to believe Sturdy, or Werner, or Piper would be any better at evaluation than some Johnny, on an internet board. Sure there are some failed coaches in there, and some guys who have been doing it for a long time. i do not see why that would prove they are better than Johnny.
Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread
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I have assumed that the people doing the ratings have some sort of evaluation sheet with items from everything from height to shooting form etc. Is this correct? BU obviously values non physical attributes such as leadership, demeanor, court awareness etc. Also assumed that all of the rating services don’t use the same evaluation sheet and certainly not the same as our staff. Also was mentioned on the thread that it is evaluating NBA potential. That would certainly be different that the staffs evaluation. Just compare the value of Liddell or Dickinson to his team vs Wagner to his team. Ratings are an input but not the total story.
Big Jack
- Decatur
Here's a thought experiment. If some recruits are underrated, then some must necessarily be overrated. In the history of this board, how many Illinois commits have been considered to be overrated by a majority of posters on this board? Any at all?
Edit: at the time they were a recruit. We can all say now that Mark Smith was overrated. How common was that opinion on the day he committed to our team?
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Jeez, Epps was rated in the 115 and 89 til 6/30. He then got bumped all the way to 58 because of the way he played this summer. Now he drops to 73 and we are worried? Man, you guys have too much time on your hands.
Hasn't everyone on this board pretty much accepted that anything in the top 150 or so (outside the top 20-30) are not really that distinguishable from a talent standpoint. It is then fit, desire and development that rules. Dropping to 73 from 58 is nothing. If he drops to 150, then color me concerned.
Hasn't everyone on this board pretty much accepted that anything in the top 150 or so (outside the top 20-30) are not really that distinguishable from a talent standpoint. It is then fit, desire and development that rules. Dropping to 73 from 58 is nothing. If he drops to 150, then color me concerned.
I think people are missing something. For players who drop it's often less about scouts thinking less of that player and more about elevating players below them.
MDchicago
- Lake Norman NC
Yep, particularly true in the end of summer rankings after some kids get noticed for the first time or play way above their prior ranking.
In Epps case, it is also worth pointing out that, even after the most recent 247 composite update, he is still ranked 42 spots above where he was ranked in January 2021 and 18 spots above where he was ranked in June of this year, so his overall 2021 net trajectory remains quite positive.
Not sure why simple questions get blown out of proportion, but I don't think someone asking why a prospect dropped in rankings indicates them freaking out. It's a valid question. People only want to cite recruiting ranks when they say one of our recruits is top 50 or top 100. These scouts, on average, are pretty spot on in identifying top shelf talent, NBA lottery picks. It's the 2nd round where they are iffy. Not to mention they watch these games in person and aren't just watching 10 min youtube highlight reels
This article puts it best:
"The first round of the NBA draft is usually littered with former five and four star recruits, as well as some players that defy the odds and earn their way to draft night. Second round picks vary from stash and draft picks, to solid four year players or under performing former highly ranked recruits."
Given their track record for evaluating talent... someone asking "why did Epps drop in rankings" is 100% a valid question. It doesn't mean he sucks all of a sudden. And many here have offered some insightful suggestions including:
1. Other prospects just rose above him
2. It's the final rankings that matter
3. "they don't think he's really a PG and he's relatively short."
4. Or maybe they simply saw him live and felt some skills wont transition as well
This article puts it best:
"The first round of the NBA draft is usually littered with former five and four star recruits, as well as some players that defy the odds and earn their way to draft night. Second round picks vary from stash and draft picks, to solid four year players or under performing former highly ranked recruits."
Given their track record for evaluating talent... someone asking "why did Epps drop in rankings" is 100% a valid question. It doesn't mean he sucks all of a sudden. And many here have offered some insightful suggestions including:
1. Other prospects just rose above him
2. It's the final rankings that matter
3. "they don't think he's really a PG and he's relatively short."
4. Or maybe they simply saw him live and felt some skills wont transition as well
Or 5 - he’s still a 4 star, never dropped from a 4 star.
It’s pretty easy to say they do a good job identifying talent when you give them 120 or so kids each class to target as 1st round picks. Hint - there aren’t 120 1st round picks each year.
That's not how it works though. And the upper end of the rankings are the first round picks. It's usually only those in the top 50 that are considered to be likely NBA picks.
We're all rooting for the same team trying to use what we have to figure out who the best talent is. Rankings happen to be one of the few resources we have.
It's a bit more complicated for some of us. I bet some of my Bitcoin that he'd move into the top 50.
Sorry just saw this. I’m more suing this as a don’t panic about it. If Self wanted this guy and we beat him, rest assured we got a very good one.
BMoreIllini
- Baltimore, MD
To your point here, the ESPN rankings reflect this. There's a 6 point difference in "Grade" between the #1 recruit (95) and the #19 recruit (89). There's also a 6 point difference between the #20 recruit (88) and #100 recruit (82). Recruits from #68-100 are all graded at 83 or 82. So the difference between being ranked #68 or #100 is very minimal.
Harris is outside of the 100. He's graded at an 81, so he's just outside of the Top 100 as the 100th ranked player is graded at an 82.
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I didn't say anything about stars. I said top 50 top 100 kids. The data is readily available to you and i've even provided links that support the contrary.
I'll provide another. Majority of early declarants in 2021, prospects are guys who were top 50 - top 100. And in terms of who was actually drafted? Narrowed down to even more top 50, top 100 prospects.
The rankings may not be correct for any one person, but on average there's a strong correlation between high school ranking and NBA draft position. There's really not much to debate as far as that goes --that evidence has been piling up for a long time. That said, I think the rankings get less accurate once you separate from the top 25 or so. There is the occasional rare player to the NBA from outside the top 100.
When you look at the really good college teams, it's rare to have loaded teams, with half or more of the rotation getting to the NBA. If there were one requirement for college success, it'd be having an NBA caliber guard that can score and make good decisions. I haven't looked, but I can't think of a championship team off the top of my head that didn't have a future NBA guard. Anyone name one?
Sounds like Corhen is officially visiting FSU and LSU. Not a big fan of that...
It's like "boom" gifs don't mean anything anymore!
People on here love doing research projects. When I check in later today I’m fully expecting to see 3 additional pages listing teams from 50’s, 60’s, and 70s who won NIT and conference championships.
Joel Goodson
- respect my decision™
Been the plan. Staff was aware of that.
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