... you have to face the fact that the staff could be wrong sometimes because the recruits were not forthcoming or other reasons.
Totally agree. But in addition, I would NOT quite go so far as to characterize statements or information from recruits as "not forthcoming." That may be the case in some cases, but just exactly as you indicate, there may be other reasons why a recruit goes back and forth on a couple of programs he really likes. That is: recruiting is fluid! Ha ha, there it is!
In real life (outside this fabulous board), people negotiate on both sides of a relationship, and deals that seem done sometimes are not, and deals that seem doomed may be resurrected. Everyone here can relate, from experiences in their own real-life world.
So I think our hot-shot Insiders(TM) are honest and accurate. But there is NO WAY anyone can bat 1000%, here or elsewhere in life.
Them's the breaks ...