Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread

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#102      
That's fine for the floor. I'm thinking (RIP) Bill Russell but with Durant's scoring as the ceiling.

Happy College GIF by Daisy Lemon
17 year old Perrin is similiar to HS SR Channing Frye IMHO. Saw him against Isreal today, handles and passes well for a big man. Scored 20 pts, tough to say how good he is until he plays collge ball. But impressed so far.
 
#104      
FYP.
Six S16's and one E8 in 17 years is awful and I know this because my Purdue friends vent about it every year. I love Undy but if that's the level of production he achieves he won't be here for 17 years.
Comparing:
Weber last 6 years - no sweet 16's, 3 years made tourney so 50%
Groce 5 years - no sweet 16's, 1 year made tourney so 20%
Painter 17 years made tourney 13 of 17 years so 76%

Brad needs to make to make it to 2nd weekend, but nobody gets fired for being perennial B10 champion contender. The Ayo Kofi team had a good path to the FF but Brad's showed his inexperience. Last year's B10 champion team was one dimensional (feeding Kofi in the post). I think we may surprise people this year - good mix of experience/size TSJ Matt M blended with youth Skyy, RJ, Ty. If Coleman can have a breakout JR year ....
 
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#105      

217sports

Springfield
17 year old Perrin is similiar to HS SR Channing Frye IMHO. Saw him against Isreal today, handles and passes well for a big man. Scored 20 pts, tough to say how good he is until he plays collge ball. But impressed so far.
Channing Frye was a McDonalds all american. Perrin's team beat Isreal (Aurburn beat their U-20 team by 61) so lets pump the breaks on those comparisons. He's a project still
 
#106      
Comparing:
Weber last 6 years - no sweet 16's, 3 years made tourney so 50%
Groce 5 years - no sweet 16's, 1 year made tourney so 20%
Painter 17 years made tourney 13 of 17 years so 76%

Brad needs to make to make it to 2nd weekend, but nobody gets fired for being perennial B10 champion contender. The Ayo Kofi team had a good path to the FF but Brad's showed his inexperience. Last year's B10 champion team was one dimensional (feeding Kofi in the post). I think we may surprise people this year - good mix of experience/size TSJ Matt M blended with youth Skyy, RJ, Ty. If Coleman can have a breakout JR year ....
There aren't a lot of coaches with as many tourney appearances as Brad. I'm not sure inexperience has been the issue.
 
#107      
FYP.

Six S16's and one E8 in 17 years is awful and I know this because my Purdue friends vent about it every year. I love Undy but if that's the level of production he achieves he won't be here for 17 years.
Well, that and the fact that he'd be like 73 years old.
 
#108      

Noblesville Illini

Nappanee, IN
It's certainly not a bad sign, but recall how many visits EJ Liddell made to the beloved even during and after his playing career at OSU because he wanted to have a good time with his friends. So it's not an ironclad signal, either.
Can't blame EJ when his best friend is Keith Randolph, an Illini football player. Friends first, man!
 
#109      
There aren't a lot of coaches with as many tourney appearances as Brad. I'm not sure inexperience has been the issue.

Agree. I think 21 is by far the bigger disappointment than 22. And I think 21 was a combination of a team that was limited in how it could play on both ends of the court, a tough matchup/draw and the brutal randomness of the tourney.

As great as that team was, Kofi limited us to playing drop coverage on D, and we were ball screen heavy with only 1 guy (Ayo) who could consistently get a shot. Loyola had a great game plan on both ends to exploit our weaknesses. I don’t blame Brad for thinking his 2 AAs would figure it out and also, we really didn’t have anything else in our bag.

We still need to see it of course but I’m optimistic. Brad completely changed his offense and defense because he had a generational talent in Kofi, and he rode that to BIG regular season and tourney titles and a 1 seed. Pretty darned good for a plan B offense/defense. This roster I think is, to a man, the most talent he’s had and is much more compatible with the style he wants to play. It will take some time to sort out roles and gel, particularly on defense, but once we do I think he will build schemes on offense and defense which highlight our strengths and will be more versatile and will be a tougher out in a single elimination tourney.

Last thought: in 22 I think Houston was clearly the better team even though we were the slightly higher seed, so hard to be too disappointed in that outcome in hindsight. We hung tough for about 35 minutes. But Houston beat Arizona, who I thought was the most talented team in the country, then shot 1-20 from 3 against Nova in the elite 8, when 4-20 would have gotten them to the Final 4. I think 21 is the only season you can really say we underachieved in the tourney.
 
#116      
There aren't a lot of coaches with as many tourney appearances as Brad. I'm not sure inexperience has been the issue.
Pre 2020 Brad coached NCAA tourney - record 2-4, never made it to sweet 16

SFA
2014 #12 seed- beat VCU, lost UCLA
2015 #12 seed - lost Utah State
2016 - #14 seed beat W Virginia, lost ND
OK St #10 seed
2017 lost to Michigan

His teams were always lower seed

Illinois 2020 was first time he was higher seed

By comparison

Lou Henson had already taken N Mexico State to FF before he came to Illinois
Lon Kruger had taken Florida to FF
Bill Self had taken Tulsa to the elite 8
Bruce Weber had taken SIU to the sweet 16
 
#117      
Comparing:
Weber last 6 years - no sweet 16's, 3 years made tourney so 50%
Groce 5 years - no sweet 16's, 1 year made tourney so 20%
Painter 17 years made tourney 13 of 17 years so 76%

...
Painter: 6 S16, 1E8, 13/17 tournament invites 76%

Adding to the comparison:
Bo Ryan: 2001-15: 4 S16, 1E8, 1FF, 1NC, made the tourney 14/14
(He took over a program that was humming, and "ran his system.")

Henson 1975-79: 0/4 tournament invites [Tournament of 32 teams]
Henson 1980-84: 1 S16, 1 E8, made the tourney 2/5 (40%) [48 teams]
Henson 1985-96: 1 S16, 0 E8, 1 FF, made the tourney 8/12 (75%) [64 teams]
Henson had a lot of first and second round "early exits" with 3/4 seeds (i.e. 86/87/88 were round of 32/64/32 exits)

I look at Painter as someone in the Bo Ryan mold. He has a system that works well consistently; just not to the Bo Ryan level. A quick scan of 247 recruiting history shows that he gets a pair of 4* recruits 1/2 the time, one 4* 25% of the time, and no 4*+ 25% of the time. His players tend to stick around the full 4 years, so he needs fewer recruits overall. If he were to get a stud recruiting assistant coach, I suspect things would blow up. The question is which way. Would the better talent put them over the top, or would players being recruited over break his system of four year players who know the system? I did not look in detail, but if one is getting five 4* players every 4 years (2/2/1/0), then I suspect that most of his starters are 4* talent. His bench is 3*, system trained, players.
 
#118      
Painter: 6 S16, 1E8, 13/17 tournament invites 76%

Adding to the comparison:
Bo Ryan: 2001-15: 4 S16, 1E8, 1FF, 1NC, made the tourney 14/14
(He took over a program that was humming, and "ran his system.")

Henson 1975-79: 0/4 tournament invites [Tournament of 32 teams]
Henson 1980-84: 1 S16, 1 E8, made the tourney 2/5 (40%) [48 teams]
Henson 1985-96: 1 S16, 0 E8, 1 FF, made the tourney 8/12 (75%) [64 teams]
Henson had a lot of first and second round "early exits" with 3/4 seeds (i.e. 86/87/88 were round of 32/64/32 exits)

I look at Painter as someone in the Bo Ryan mold. He has a system that works well consistently; just not to the Bo Ryan level. A quick scan of 247 recruiting history shows that he gets a pair of 4* recruits 1/2 the time, one 4* 25% of the time, and no 4*+ 25% of the time. His players tend to stick around the full 4 years, so he needs fewer recruits overall. If he were to get a stud recruiting assistant coach, I suspect things would blow up. The question is which way. Would the better talent put them over the top, or would players being recruited over break his system of four year players who know the system? I did not look in detail, but if one is getting five 4* players every 4 years (2/2/1/0), then I suspect that most of his starters are 4* talent. His bench is 3*, system trained, players.
Painter is a decent coach. I am not sure if he would survive 17 yr were he to coach at Illinois though.
 
#122      
Painter is a decent coach. I am not sure if he would survive 17 yr were he to coach at Illinois though.
well it's real simple. We haven't made the Sweet 16 since 04-05. Underwood has failed to reach the second weekend with a 1 seed and a 4 seed. Painter has made the Sweet 16 4 of the last 6 seasons. So while, my aims are higher, and I have hopes Underwood can get us there, we look kinda stupid throwing stones at Painter.
 
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