Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread

[Fighter of the Nightman]

illini0440 stated Paul's primary drive is hardware and I believe a couple other insiders said there wasn't any interest in him coming here. While we didn't put on the full-court press to get him, it also likely wouldn't lead to anything. So we're looking at Reeves now and will just have Ty play the point according to Lville. So far Loyalty is, eh-ehm, skeptical. I think that summarizes it.

Not sure why that would disqualify us. I know people talk about our early exits in the NCAAs, but you only get "hardware" for three things:

1. Winning the national championship
2. Winning your conference.
3. Winning your conference tournament

Only three teams have accomplished the first since Paul got to Rutgers - Baylor, Kansas and UConn. It's a very difficult thing to do, and you can't really just eliminate schools who have not done it, as each new March Madness is a bit of a crapshoot. Illinois has done #2 and #3 while Paul has been at Rutgers, and we have been one game away from doing #2 an additional two times, giving pretty good evidence that you can have a good shot at competing for a Big Ten title here. Heck, last year's mess of a squad even had a legit shot to catch Purdue shockingly late into the season, haha! Even on the winning the NC thing, the best you can count on before Selection Sunday is getting a #1 seed, right? And we have done that, as well. Sometimes you get upset and we unfortunately did, but I would be curious to see the list of programs that would qualify as giving Paul the potential to get some "hardware" and that are also interested in Paul, lol...

 

[Fighter of the Nightman]

Predictive metrics regarding a single elimination tournament, are problematic in any era.

Yep. Somewhat related to my other recent post, I think I saw one time that a #1 seed has lost in the Second Round in 5 of the last 6 NCAA Tournaments ... and yet each time we treat the team (including us!!) as having laid a massive egg and choked. Not saying that #1 seed didn't "choke" each time, but this stuff is just simply expected in March Madness.

 

[21ChampaignSt]

Are we allowed just to eliminate UConn from all NCAA tourney metrics? They are so anomalous they break all the predictive metrics. Crazy

It is pretty wild.

Since 2002 a non one seed has won the title 8 times. HALF of those times were UConn.

This is also why I tend to scoff a little bit at the "tournament is luck" narrative. 70% of the winners over the last two decades were 1 or 2 seeds. Probably isn't a coincidence that the teams who are identified as the top 8 going into the tournament are also the ones who keep lucking their way into national titles.

 

[Illini1985]

Just terribly disappointed in the staff in their pursuit of a PG. Like others mentioned, coming off of last year and returning talents like Hawkins and TSJ, it's unfathomable to head into this yr with such a question mark at PG.

Yeah I get it, we should be good and competitive, but we could have been a top end contender. Just a disappointing miss from a very good and veteran HC.

 

[Flyinghi71]

ACT NOW TA!!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1667968807262928897

 

[CoachHooleyHoo]

This has been one of the wildest offseasons I can ever remember...total roller coaster ride.

AWESOME: The return of CH & TSJ. Would have been happy to get 1 of 2 but to get both back is amazing.
FRUSTRATING BUT UNDERSTANDABLE: RJ entering the portal...ton of potential but probably needed a scenery change.
PERPLEXING: Epps entering the portal. Odd b/c he had every opportunity in the world but seemed like nothing was going to make him happy & was a problem.
INFURIATING: The whole RayJ situation. Don't know all that went down but a massive miss by this staff for sure. No other way to put it.
VERY POSITIVE: Domask & Guerrier seem like solid additions with experience. Any other year, we'd be elated to add these 2 to a deep team.
CONCERNING: The one PG added was a guy coming off an injury that is a tough recovery. Without that, I think most would be fairly happy.
HOPEFUL: There's a lot of talent on this team & the potential for a deep run is there. I think that's why so many are frustrated about the uncertainty of the PG situation. Shore up that position & this has to be one of the deepest teams.
WEIRD: Seemed like insiders genuinely thought we were either in on or had a shot at Mulcahy, but that died before it even got started. I do understand him not wanting to stay in the same league, but he would have been a massive addition.

In normal times, this probably would have been considered a pretty solid off-season. But considering the potential of this team, the PG fiasco, and the lack of NCAA Tourney success, there's a lot of angst in Littyville.

 

[Fighter of the Nightman]

It is pretty wild.

Since 2002 a non one seed has won the title 8 times. HALF of those times were UConn.

This is also why I tend to scoff a little bit at the "tournament is luck" narrative. 70% of the winners over the last two decades were 1 or 2 seeds. Probably isn't a coincidence that the teams who are identified as the top 8 going into the tournament are also the ones who keep lucking their way into national titles.

Oh, the numbers are very clear over time. You want to win it all? Get a #1 seed. However, those odds are still not bulletproof by any means, as my stat about #1 seeds losing in the Second Round happening over 80% of the time in the last several years. The moral of the story is that you give yourself the highest chance for a deep run if you keep getting a top seed, and that is why regular season success matters quite a bit. Each new Tournament is a crapshoot, but you still want those high seeds. That's why 2021 was so painful ... we were just off that day, and we went home. And it's HARD to get a #1 seed! While not as impressive, it's as "exclusive" of an accomplishment as making a Final Four (i.e., only four teams do it each year).

I have long been a defender that as long as Brad and Co. keep competing in the Big Ten and getting good seeds, we will be fine in March; we will EVENTUALLY break through! The alarming thing about last year is that we dug ourselves into the hole of playing an equal opponent on day one. When that's your path, you cannot afford any off games.

 

[Weatherspoon1]

Any use of the greatest word of all time, shadenfreude, gets an automatic thumbs up from me.

I prefer douchewaffle but I’ll allow it.

 

[Fighter of the Nightman]

This has been one of the wildest offseasons I can ever remember...total roller coaster ride.

AWESOME: The return of CH & TSJ. Would have been happy to get 1 of 2 but to get both back is amazing.
FRUSTRATING BUT UNDERSTANDABLE: RJ entering the portal...ton of potential but probably needed a scenery change.
PERPLEXING: Epps entering the portal. Odd b/c he had every opportunity in the world but seemed like nothing was going to make him happy & was a problem.
INFURIATING: The whole RayJ situation. Don't know all that went down but a massive miss by this staff for sure. No other way to put it.
VERY POSITIVE: Domask & Guerrier seem like solid additions with experience. Any other year, we'd be elated to add these 2 to a deep team.
CONCERNING: The one PG added was a guy coming off an injury that is a tough recovery. Without that, I think most would be fairly happy.
HOPEFUL: There's a lot of talent on this team & the potential for a deep run is there. I think that's why so many are frustrated about the uncertainty of the PG situation. Shore up that position & this has to be one of the deepest teams.
WEIRD: Seemed like insiders genuinely thought we were either in on or had a shot at Mulcahy, but that died before it even got started. I do understand him not wanting to stay in the same league, but he would have been a massive addition.

In normal times, this probably would have been considered a pretty solid off-season. But considering the potential of this team, the PG fiasco, and the lack of NCAA Tourney success, there's a lot of angst in Littyville.

Agree with most of those categories, but I am an optimist ... that CONCERNING category definitely bleeds into the HOPEFUL one if Williams can pleasantly surprise us. As you said, a competent PG pushes this team's ceiling quite high!

 

[Epsilon]

I also read/heard PG by committee if Williams is not available.

Yes, and group therapy starts on Monday at 11am Central after the first conference game.

 

[21ChampaignSt]

Oh, the numbers are very clear over time. You want to win it all? Get a #1 seed. However, those odds are still not bulletproof by any means, as my stat about #1 seeds losing in the Second Round happening over 80% of the time in the last several years. The moral of the story is that you give yourself the highest chance for a deep run if you keep getting a top seed, and that is why regular season success matters quite a bit. Each new Tournament is a crapshoot, but you still want those high seeds. That's why 2021 was so painful ... we were just off that day, and we went home. And it's HARD to get a #1 seed! While not as impressive, it's as "exclusive" of an accomplishment as making a Final Four (i.e., only four teams do it each year).

I have long been a defender that as long as Brad and Co. keep competing in the Big Ten and getting good seeds, we will be fine in March; we will EVENTUALLY break through! The alarming thing about last year is that we dug ourselves into the hole of playing an equal opponent on day one. When that's your path, you cannot afford any off games.

Ha yeah, I saw your post after I posted mine. Both can be true, like you said. I guess if someone were to use the analogy of a lottery or a raffle, I could get on board with it. You do need to have some luck on your side to win, but your odds increase substantially if you get a top seed.. kinda like buying the bundle of 20 raffle tickets instead of just a single.

 

[Mojoman]

A lot of question marks, but I still like this team better than last year even if we do not add anyone else, and think we will develop well over the season.

 

[Lee]

I also read/heard PG by committee if Williams is not available.

 

[BashCtIllini]

This has been one of the wildest offseasons I can ever remember...total roller coaster ride.

AWESOME: The return of CH & TSJ. Would have been happy to get 1 of 2 but to get both back is amazing.
FRUSTRATING BUT UNDERSTANDABLE: RJ entering the portal...ton of potential but probably needed a scenery change.
PERPLEXING: Epps entering the portal. Odd b/c he had every opportunity in the world but seemed like nothing was going to make him happy & was a problem.
INFURIATING: The whole RayJ situation. Don't know all that went down but a massive miss by this staff for sure. No other way to put it.
VERY POSITIVE: Domask & Guerrier seem like solid additions with experience. Any other year, we'd be elated to add these 2 to a deep team.
CONCERNING: The one PG added was a guy coming off an injury that is a tough recovery. Without that, I think most would be fairly happy.
HOPEFUL: There's a lot of talent on this team & the potential for a deep run is there. I think that's why so many are frustrated about the uncertainty of the PG situation. Shore up that position & this has to be one of the deepest teams.
WEIRD: Seemed like insiders genuinely thought we were either in on or had a shot at Mulcahy, but that died before it even got started. I do understand him not wanting to stay in the same league, but he would have been a massive addition.

In normal times, this probably would have been considered a pretty solid off-season. But considering the potential of this team, the PG fiasco, and the lack of NCAA Tourney success, there's a lot of angst in Littyville.

I don't think it's very perplexing why Epps left, he clearly did not have a good relationship with Underwood. Who was at fault doesn't really matter, he gone.

On hopeful, there's always hope, but you want to talk about perplexing, we had a ton of talent last year and we were limited by PG play. Why we weren't looking to bring in multiple PGs and are now potentially looking at 0 true PGs capable of playing on this roster, definitely a head scratcher.

As for weird, I would find it more weird if a guy who graduated from a school DID want to stay in conference. I would imagine part of leaving included a promise that I won't play against you coach. If he had a great relationship up until leaving, I wouldn't want to go against my alma mater. There are 360 schools to choose from, only 14 of them are in the Big Ten. There are plenty of options out there.

 

[Emerson Bigguns]

Oh, the numbers are very clear over time. You want to win it all? Get a #1 seed. However, those odds are still not bulletproof by any means, as my stat about #1 seeds losing in the Second Round happening over 80% of the time in the last several years. The moral of the story is that you give yourself the highest chance for a deep run if you keep getting a top seed, and that is why regular season success matters quite a bit. Each new Tournament is a crapshoot, but you still want those high seeds. That's why 2021 was so painful ... we were just off that day, and we went home. And it's HARD to get a #1 seed! While not as impressive, it's as "exclusive" of an accomplishment as making a Final Four (i.e., only four teams do it each year).

I have long been a defender that as long as Brad and Co. keep competing in the Big Ten and getting good seeds, we will be fine in March; we will EVENTUALLY break through! The alarming thing about last year is that we dug ourselves into the hole of playing an equal opponent on day one. When that's your path, you cannot afford any off games.

Add in the fact that two of the three tournament appearances under BU, we played significantly under-seeded teams in round two.

According to Torvik, Loyola was the #13 team in the country when we played them in round two as a 1 seed. This should have been a second weekend matchup.

The next year was even more egregious. Torvik had Houston as the #2 team in the country, yet they were a 5 seed to our 4.

Last year, we pretty much got what we deserved.

While I understand the frustration of not advancing in the tournament, even the most critical fans have to see how much bad luck/poor seeding has played into our recent results.

Even with our problematic roster construction, this team is capable of making it through the first weekend. I suspect we will shoot a little better and defend a little better. The offense may look frustratingly similar, but hopefully with more guys willing to pass.

 

[Epsilon]

Agree with most of those categories, but I am an optimist ... that CONCERNING category definitely bleeds into the HOPEFUL one if Williams can pleasantly surprise us. As you said, a competent PG pushes this team's ceiling quite high!

On that note, what do we know about the status of that injury, if anything? Is the concern that there is still healing time to go or that the healing hasn’t been tested / seen yet? Do we have any ETA on when he might be ready for action?

 

[jjv0004]

ACT NOW TA!!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1667968807262928897

Can he re-classify to this year? We still need a point guard.

 

[vabeachbear]

I'm looking forward to the Posts in Feb, where one of the insiders says "Do you remember last summer, when everyone was concerned Williams couldn't be the PG of this team?"

 

[Emerson Bigguns]

As for weird, I would find it more weird if a guy who graduated from a school DID want to stay in conference. I would imagine part of leaving included a promise that I won't play against you coach. If he had a great relationship up until leaving, I wouldn't want to go against my alma mater. There are 360 schools to choose from, only 14 of them are in the Big Ten. There are plenty of options out there.

Particularly, if you read his statement about leaving Rutgers. It's obvious that bringing his local program back to relevance was a huge motivating factor for him in going there. Obviously, he loves Steve and the fans at the RAC. Why bury all that goodwill? He will have plenty of great options for all the reasons we wanted him here.

On that note, what do we know about the status of that injury, if anything? Is the concern that there is still healing time to go or that the healing hasn’t been tested / seen yet? Do we have any ETA on when he might be ready for action?

The good news on Williams is that he has been around campus, and the coaches probably have a great idea of where he is in his rehab. The fact that they don't seem super concerned with chasing another PG suggests they like what they've seen so far.

It's really hard to imagine he won't get a waiver since he never suited up for ISU.

 

[CoachHooleyHoo]

I don't think it's very perplexing why Epps left, he clearly did not have a good relationship with Underwood. Who was at fault doesn't really matter, he gone.

On hopeful, there's always hope, but you want to talk about perplexing, we had a ton of talent last year and we were limited by PG play. Why we weren't looking to bring in multiple PGs and are now potentially looking at 0 true PGs capable of playing on this roster, definitely a head scratcher.

As for weird, I would find it more weird if a guy who graduated from a school DID want to stay in conference. I would imagine part of leaving included a promise that I won't play against you coach. If he had a great relationship up until leaving, I wouldn't want to go against my alma mater. There are 360 schools to choose from, only 14 of them are in the Big Ten. There are plenty of options out there.

I was saying perplexing on Epps b/c he was basically given everything you'd want & still left. I do understand not jibing with a coach, but it's still pretty wild to me.

I literally said "I do understand him not wanting to stay in the league." That part makes a ton of sense to me especially when you read about his relationship with his coach. The weird part was that insiders had inferred there was a legit shot there when it was actually a total non-starter.

 

[Ramrod2010]

ACT NOW TA!!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1667968807262928897

"2028"

 

[ptgrd23]

Sometimes it is addition by subtraction
- MM was a me first player. Played poor defense and loved going 1 on 5.
- RJ could not hit the broadside of a barn. Not sure what happened to his jumpshot but team was too limited offensively to carry him just for defense.
- Skyy never really contributed. Did not play like a top 20 recruit. Probably was significantly overrated. Maybe injury was still lingering.
- Jayden had some really good offensive games but did not appear to want set up others. Definitely a shoot first player. Mediocre defense hurt.

Positives for 2023/4
- We missed Luke's effort and outside shooting. Definitely team first attitude with great hustle. Might make a big difference. Is he our next Doug Altenberger? Blue collar guy.
- TSJ and Coleman returning show loyalty to the team. Coleman showed some nice offense moves in lane toward end of season. Needs to build on it.
- Sencire, Dain, Ty are all a year older and gained valuable experience. Love Sencire and Ty on defense - could be the identity of this team. Dain showed very nice post moves. If he can continue to improve his conditioning and agility so he block more shots and not be forced into drop coverage it will help our defense even more.
- Domask should help offense with his scoring.
- Quincy should help defense and rebounding plus has a nice shot.

Wild card - if Williams is not ready due to injury/NCAA we really need Nico or DGS to step up and play a serviceable PG. Bring the ball up against pressure. Feed Dain inside. Work to get other players open shots.

 

[WhiteHorseWings]

I prefer douchewaffle but I’ll allow it.

They serve those on planes

 

[skyIdub]

It's like getting bacon that's less crispy than you'd like. You're still gonna eat it. I mean, it's bacon.

 

[Mojoman]

Sometimes it is addition by subtraction
- MM was a me first player. Played poor defense and loved going 1 on 5.
- RJ could not hit the broadside of a barn. Not sure what happened to his jumpshot but team was too limited offensively to carry him just for defense.
- Skyy never really contributed. Did not play like a top 20 recruit. Probably was significantly overrated. Maybe injury was still lingering.
- Jayden had some really good offensive games but did not appear to want set up others. Definitely a shoot first player. Mediocre defense hurt.

Positives for 2023/4
- We missed Luke's effort and outside shooting. Definitely team first attitude with great hustle. Might make a big difference. Is he our next Doug Altenberger? Blue collar guy.
- TSJ and Coleman returning show loyalty to the team. Coleman showed some nice offense moves in lane toward end of season. Needs to build on it.
- Sencire, Dain, Ty are all a year older and gained valuable experience. Love Sencire and Ty on defense - could be the identity of this team. Dain showed very nice post moves. If he can continue to improve his conditioning and agility so he block more shots and not be forced into drop coverage it will help our defense even more.
- Domask should help offense with his scoring.
- Quincy should help defense and rebounding plus has a nice shot.

Wild card - if Williams is not ready due to injury/NCAA we really need Nico or DGS to step up and play a serviceable PG. Bring the ball up against pressure. Feed Dain inside. Work to get other players open shots.

Agree with much of this. I think Domask is going to be a key player for us.

From what observers have stated- Moretti and DGL are not going to see much time at all.

They will try Rodgers and committee at PG.
Really hope Harmon gets admitted. He can be on that committee or split time with Rodgers.
Not counting on Williams to be ready but who knows.