Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread

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#302      

PepeSilvia

P
PepeSilvia
jacekpardol said:
I never said that you can't win with lower rated recruits, although we haven't seen Illinois do it in the modern era. I'm saying its more probable that you win if you have higher rated talent. Of course you can cherry-pick and find exceptions to the rule, much like anything else in life. Much of the "rating don't matter that much" is a lot of Weber-era cope and look how that turned out. Look at Bruce with top 100 kids vs without. He goes from NCAA runner-up to missing the tournament multiple years in a row. It has always mattered at Illinois. All of our great teams in Illinois have had a tons of highly rated recruits. I don't know if the 2004-2005 team had all but 1 or 2 kids outside the top 100 and they were beat by a team that was absolutely star studded. The same could be said of the Flyin' Illini.

You mentioned that you need these project picks in all recruiting classes. Our last 3 commits were Nico, Jason, and Jace. Is that enough projects? Do we need more? At what point will you start to be disappointed?

Furthermore, a lot of people says there isnt a big difference between a kid ranked 50 and a kid ranked 150. Luckily Rivals crunched the math for us and here's the results for odds of kids getting drafted.

About 1 in 7 for 4 stars
About 1 in 15 for 3 stars inside top-150 (not sure how many of these there are each year since 4 stars usually go pretty deep in the top 100)
About 1 in 60 for remaining 3 stars
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Are you complaining about the 11, 12, and 13th scholarship guys that are not going to get minutes?

Sure it would be great to have a bunch of touted recruits but you're not going to get those type of guys to come and sit at the end of your bench. Also, with the portal you can acquire proven talent and then get some projects out of high school or else you're going to get stuck in a cycle of freshman not playing and immediately transferring.

Also, I'm extremely confident that Nico ends up being a very good college player.
 
#307      

Ga65

G
Ga65
Calvin said:
More on stars and rankings

Article is a little dated from 2016, but I wouldn't be surprised if the numbers are still similar.

About 2/3 of 5 stars get drafted (Rivals had Ayo as 5 star, Kofi as 4)
About 1 in 7 for 4 stars
About 1 in 15 for 3 stars inside top-150 (not sure how many of these there are each year since 4 stars usually go pretty deep in the top 100)
About 1 in 60 for remaining 3 stars
and less than 1 in 200 outside 3 stars.
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It does seem to me that the ratings are based more on pro potential than college contribution. Not sure the formula but several all American college players not significant in pros. Particularly true of big men but also true of others.
 
#309      

Noblesville Illini

Noblesville Illini
Nappanee, IN
Noblesville Illini
ptgrd23 said:
Or the reverse. Bill Self went to see Andre Igodala and he had a bad game so we did not offer.
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epic fail GIF by Tennis TV
 
#311      

Loyalillini10

L
Urbana, IL
Loyalillini10
Wowza, this fanbase can be insane and flipping entitled. Weber really hurt a lot of you--like really scarred you. BW and BU tenures at Illinois have not been very similar. BW did well at the beginning, but had trouble recruiting and winning. BU started out rough (didn't have much to start with) and has been successful on the recruiting trail and in the W column. Hell, under BU we have won two BIG championships and a BTT. I would love to have more success in the tournament, but let's not forget the drought we had before he got here. Now, we have consistently made the NCAA tourney every year and you little s***s complain that it is not enough success. The season isn't just in March, folks. All this being said, there are still folks on here that scream about mediocrity (and one person on here either just discovered the word and loves saying it over and over again or is just in love with the word)! Ffs, Illini fans, why don't you wait for someone to start failing before you accuse them of being "mediocre" or "not good enough for being the 8th highest paid coach in NCAAB." Lord, help us.
 
#314      

Dbell1981

D
Decatur, IL
Dbell1981
GrapplingIllini said:
Looking at the logo on his hoodie, does Phoenix train BJJ? Sheesh, I like him even more now.
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My son training in Cali at 10th planet. He loves it. Gonna have to send him this pic. Good lookin out on catching the logo. Gill with the guillotine.😃 My son here with Eddie BravoIMG_0959.jpg
 
#315      

NCIllini10

NCIllini10
NCIllini10
jjv0004 said:
Sorry. My question is about next year. TJ, Harmon and Coleman gone. That leaves TY and DGL for next year. No current 2024 signing is a point guard.
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Right now, next year ball handlers appear to be Ty, DGL, Butler, (hopefully Fears), plus perhaps someone picked up in the portal. Situation is always very fluid given the state of college basketball. It is very hard to predict past the season right in front of you. But, with the information known to us right now, this is what i would go with.
 
#320      

Calvin

C
Calvin
Ga65 said:
It does seem to me that the ratings are based more on pro potential than college contribution. Not sure the formula but several all American college players not significant in pros. Particularly true of big men but also true of others.
Click to expand...

No doubt you can have a supremely productive college player that doesn't get drafted (e.g. Kofi). I don't expect much from the rankings because 1) there is no perfect rating system and 2) it's a crude system with it's own issues and biases. That said, it's still a lot better than nothing.

Getting back to the Sleepers podcast, there's a difference between not getting excited, and dumping on a commit. I'm ok with the former, and not the latter. The thing I'd love to know after hearing their take, is how many transfers-out there have been for each BIG program over say, the last 3 years. Maybe note any programs that have had coaching changes. Does Underwood actually have more turn-over than other programs or is that a lazy narrative that's easy to pin on him when all programs are having higher turnover?
 
#323      

The Galloping Ghost

The Galloping Ghost
Washington, DC
The Galloping Ghost
iron said:
What basketball credentials does Piper or Sturdy or anyone doing the recruiting rankings have?
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I don’t know. I don’t think this is wildly complex. Someone like Piper has at least seen Butler play in person. He’s also talked to people in the program about why the coaching staff was interested in him and then ultimately offered. He brings some knowledge to the convo. The Sleeper dudes don’t. They aren’t on the AAU circuit. They don’t have any sources in the program. They are entirely vibes and hot takes. And again, they only talk about Illinois because they know our fanbase is crazy and will give them clicks.

No one is saying Piper’s opinion is the word of god. And if you’d listened to the link I posted, he wasn’t exactly effusive with his praise, either. He just says what he saw in Butler over the summer, some good (big body and can control a game) and some not so good (athleticism and shooting), and then gives what he believes the coaching staff sees in him (pairs well with quick twitch athletes, versatility, and can be developed over time). Useful info based on something concrete.

In every single facet of life, give me the opinion of the person who at least has done some sort of work to attain that opinion over the people who spout hot takes with zero background in what they are talking about.
 
#324      

Emerson Bigguns

Emerson Bigguns
Emerson Bigguns
Calvin said:
No doubt you can have a supremely productive college player that doesn't get drafted (e.g. Kofi). I don't expect much from the rankings because 1) there is no perfect rating system and 2) it's a crude system with it's own issues and biases. That said, it's still a lot better than nothing.

Getting back to the Sleepers podcast, there's a difference between not getting excited, and dumping on a commit. I'm ok with the former, and not the latter. The thing I'd love to know after hearing their take, is how many transfers-out there have been for each BIG program over say, the last 3 years. Maybe note any programs that have had coaching changes. Does Underwood actually have more turn-over than other programs or is that a lazy narrative that's easy to pin on him when all programs are having higher turnover?
Click to expand...

https://basketball.realgm.com/ncaa/conferences/Big-Ten-Conference/2/transfers/2024

This is a fun site to play around with to help you get some insight on that question.
 
#325      

Illini IndyCar Fan

Illini IndyCar Fan
Illini IndyCar Fan
The Galloping Ghost said:
The Sleeper dudes only talk about Illinois because they know our fanbase is crazy and will give them clicks.
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100% nailed it. They stumbled upon the fact that Illini takes give them good engagement numbers, which is what drives a lot of their content decisions now. It’s easy to see when you understand what they’re trying to do (get clicks).
 
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