If you look at how UConn is slowly stacking talent (returning an amazing back court including a 2027 lottery pick), Duke’s squad, Florida’s squad esp. if Haugh returns, and you know Michigan is far from done based on Dusty’s track record… we just have to accept that we’re not yet an NIL era big dawg.
Michigan, Duke, and Zona showed what kind of squad is required to win the ‘ship. We lost a Top 5 NBA pick who was All B1G 1st and All American 2nd team.
Is our current squad in the realm of those teams from this year? I’d argue no.
I think replicating last season’s outcome, i.e. a 3-seed should be considered a success for this squad.
Cameron Boozer, Isiah Evans, Braden Burries, Koa Pete, Braylon Mullins, and Keaton were the impact freshmen on Elite 8 teams. That’s a high, high bar to hold Coleman to.
Let’s compare our projected starting squads.
Michigan 2026 vs. Illinois 2027
- Junior Cadeau (Final Four MVP) >= Sophomore Vaaks
- Senior Burnett = Freshman Coleman
- Yaxel >> Andrej
- Sophomore Morez = Sophomore Mirk
- Junior Mara >= Senior Tomi
- Michigan bench (McKenney, Cason, Gayle) > Illinois bench (Z, Jake, Morillo)
Arizona 2026 vs. Illinois 2027
- Jayden Bradley (Big) >= Sophomore Vaaks
- Freshman Burries (Top 10 pick) > Freshman Coleman
- Freshman Kharchenkov <= Senior Andrej
- Freshman Pete = Sophomore Mirk
- Junior Krivas >= Senior Tomi
- Zona Bench (Awaka, Del Orso, Aristode) > Illinois bench
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Michigan and Arizona last year were historically strong teams. Michigan alongside UConn 2024 and Kentucky 2012 may even be a Top 5 college team in the modern era.
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The way UConn (Mullins, Demery back, Solo likely, Khamenia and Hines as transfers), Duke (already have Cayden and Ngonba back plus good chance Foster, Evans, Sarr return, maybe BLACKWELL), Michigan (with Morez likely back, Brandon McCoy, Sophomore McKenney and Cadeau), Arizona (Pete could come back, plus Caleb Holt), Florida (Haugh could come back, Condon back, Fland back, Chineylu rumored, Milan M rumored)….
All of these teams are on par to superior to our projected team.
We don’t know how dark horses like the Louisville super team, Michigan State, UCLA, Texas Tech, etc. are going to perform.
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I’m happy with the squad the staff have assembled. I don’t think we addressed our defense against guards like Cadeau, Mullins, Evans, etc. I don’t think we picked up a proven back to the basket scorer like Tarris Reed Jr. Neither twin was an elite rebounder last year. And Z got some blocks but didn’t defend the cup the same way as a Mara or Krivas.
We don’t have to plug every glaring gap to a title favorite last year. But would have been encouraging to address at least one.
I feel like this team as constructed is a paper tiger ala Purdue 2026. Till we beat UConn at the United Center, the jury is very much out on this team.
Homers feel free to homer. I’m just being a realist.