Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread

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#626      
wc_illini
21ChampaignSt said:
Measuring by total minutes is tricky because there's so much early season garbage time built in. That's why, when I think about our "real" rotation, I tend to focus on what the rotation looks like in conference. But yeah, ^ that's all true.

I think sometimes people think that having a 9th man who is a key cog in the rotation is a sign of a roster's strength. But I'd argue more often it means that one / some of your top five players aren't good enough to stay on the floor. Kinda related to the football adage "If you have two quarterbacks, you have none."
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Michigan and UConn both had 9 guys play >30% of their minutes on the season, though their rotations shrunk by the end (at least partly due to injury for UM).

Among Torvik's top 10, Duke and Purdue had 9, while Houston had 9-10.

So it's certainly not a bad strategy to have 9+ guys who can contribute meaningfully over a season, even if it's just to keep your core fresh and/or to fill in for injuries.
 
#627      
WhereDoWeStandWithStorr?
NarrowJ said:
But the whole point is that you can't get starter/6th man level guys to come here for a role where you (a) play maybe 30 garbage time minutes the entire season if there are minimal/no injuries or (b) hope they can maybe grab a 5-10 minute role if in the small off chance there ARE significant injuries.

Nobody is signing up for that except your incoming freshmen who know they have some work cut out for them (even sophomore Brandon Lee doesn't want this role).
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I mean we got Jake Davis from Mercer 2 years ago, for a pretty similar role.
 
#628      
Piotyr
I keep seeing the argument of "But Ty was a starter 3 years ago on an elite 8 team, he must be good enough to crack the rotation this year"

Ty's numbers from 2024 would have been good enough for the 9th best player on the team last season, below Z (and Jake and Ben).

Keeping 5 players from last year's rotation and adding Vaaks, Coleman and Morillo promises at best more of the same, and at worst less opportunity behind some combination of Zens, Brown and Davis.

An incoming freshman looking to prove himself could understandably deal with 3-5 minutes a game plus garbage time. A 5th year player is going to want to go somewhere he's getting some actual playing time, so that's what happened.
 
#629      
ChiefGritty
jamarvelous31 said:
You still need someone who will accept that role at a relatively low price point and won't cause locker room discontent.
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Well that's the other universal truism of basketball, no matter how great and perfectly constructed a basketball team is on the floor, behind closed doors guys want more playing time and more shots than they're getting.

Andrej Stojakovic was not a happy camper last year. He deserves enormous credit for fighting through that and adapting his game to what the team needed, and his flexibility and sacrifice will not have gone unnoticed by scouts either. And he got his reward in the end and we can see what that meant to him whenever he talks about it. But he wants to be the go-to scorer, make no mistake.

So we wait, lock him back on board, and then we go get the piece that will make us the kind of superteam that's adaptable against any opponent.
 
#630      
wc_illini
NarrowJ said:
But the whole point is that you can't get starter/6th man level guys to come here for a role where you (a) play maybe 30 garbage time minutes the entire season if there are minimal/no injuries or (b) hope they can maybe grab a 5-10 minute role if in the small off chance there ARE significant injuries.

Nobody is signing up for that except your incoming freshmen who know they have some work cut out for them (even sophomore Brandon Lee doesn't want this role).
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Michigan's #7-9 guys in minutes played were: senior, senior, sophomore (all returning players who played fewer minutes than prior season)
UConn's were: senior, freshman, junior (one transfer and one returning, both played less than prior year)
Duke's were: freshman, sophomore, sophomore (all returning and played more than prior season)
Purdue's were: freshman, freshman, sophomore (returning player who played more than prior season)
Houston's #7-10 (all played 20-30% of minutes) were: senior, freshman, sophomore, senior (one transfer who played less than prior year, two returning who played more)

So 16 guys in Torvik's top ten played at the bottom end of 9-10 man rotations. Five freshman, five sophomores, one junior, and five seniors.

All the transfers played fewer minutes than their prior year
 
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#633      
Joel Goodson
Piotyr said:
I keep seeing the argument of "But Ty was a starter 3 years ago on an elite 8 team, he must be good enough to crack the rotation this year"

Ty's numbers from 2024 would have been good enough for the 9th best player on the team last season, below Z (and Jake and Ben).

Keeping 5 players from last year's rotation and adding Vaaks, Coleman and Morillo promises at best more of the same, and at worst less opportunity behind some combination of Zens, Brown and Davis.

An incoming freshman looking to prove himself could understandably deal with 3-5 minutes a game plus garbage time. A 5th year player is going to want to go somewhere he's getting some actual playing time, so that's what happened.
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right, it's not exactly rocket surgery. mind boggling that some are hung up on this
 
#634      
NarrowJ
wc_illini said:
Michigan's #7-9 guys in minutes played were: senior, senior, sophomore (all returning players who played fewer minutes than prior season)
UConn's were: senior, freshman, junior (one transfer and one returning, both played less than prior year)
Duke's were: freshman, sophomore, sophomore (all returning and played more than prior season)
Purdue's were: freshman, freshman, sophomore (returning player who played more than prior season)
Houston's #7-10 (all played 20-30% of minutes) were: senior, freshman, sophomore, senior (one transfer who played less than prior year, two returning who played more)

So 16 guys in Torvik's top ten played at the bottom end of 9-10 man rotations. Five freshman, five sophomores, one junior, and five seniors.

All the transfers played fewer minutes than their prior year
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What do I do with this data?

EDIT: Looks like it basically shows that 9th/10th man is kind of a crapshoot (ie, whoever earns it out of the bottom of the roster), but certainly unlikely to be top end talent level players who have been lured to play this role for less NIL and playing time than they could get elsewhere.

WhereDoWeStandWithStorr? said:
I mean we got Jake Davis from Mercer 2 years ago, for a pretty similar role.
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Jake Davis, who was an unestablished single-digit ppg scorer at Mercer, the 209th ranked KP team his lone season there... you honestly think we can't go get a guy like that? If so, then I don't see the problem. If not, then why?
 
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#635      
HailtotheChief
lstewart53x3 said:
So if you exclude garbage time minutes, the 9th guy can expect to play 3-5 minutes per game. Pretty sure one of the freshman can fill that role.
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I do not feel any of our freshman can defend in the post and fill Ben's role vs the teams we are playing. The only type of option that could rebound and defend a true power 4 with any size would be Jason J. if he is medically cleared. He did rebound well and has some size. I really hope he is at 6'10" likely 240 by now and i guess he is a third year freshman eligabilty wise with a redshirt and med redshirt season. He could play spot minutes if guys miss time or have fouls. I think we add someone else besides Jason to help at the 4/5 as depth to help Z back up the 4/5 in B10 play and ither big boys should someone hod forbid go down or foul alot.
 
#641      
Battle89
Joel Goodson said:
right, it's not exactly rocket surgery. mind boggling that some are hung up on this
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Agree.

I hope people don't take this the wrong way, because I love Ty, and really respect the good attitude and team support he gave the last two years. But I have never seen such elevation on this site for someone who has not played a minute in two seasons.

While he was good three seasons ago, our team dynamic and roster construction is totally different from when Ty started. And he could not shoot back then and I have seen nothing here to indicate that has changed, other than blind hope.
 
#642      
PtGd
Agree.

I hope people don't take this the wrong way, because I love Ty, and really respect the good attitude and team support he gave the last two years. But I have never seen such elevation on this site for someone who has not played a minute in two seasons.

While he was good three seasons ago, our team dynamic and roster construction is totally different from when Ty started. And he could not shoot back then and I have seen nothing here to indicate that has changed, other than blind hope.
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It’s called “Loyalty” for a reason.
 
#643      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
ChiefGritty said:
Sadly a school that's in big trouble in NIL World. They belong to an ecosystem that no longer exists.
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It's obvious the negative impact NIL has had on these schools. However, more times than not it benefits the player. If a guy like Juke Harris remained at WAKE, chances are he would not develop like he will at Michigan. Same goes for Coleman.

There's a major difference in being a stats guy on an awful team, verses the best player on a championship contender.
 
#644      
sulli
Having players 8-10 isn't really about having a good 10th man. It is about having someone who might develop and become a 4th-5th man. Last year the team was great because the 9th man coming in ended up being the best player on the team. That petrovic slid out of the rotation was at least in part that Wagler just balled out and took 36 minutes out of the rotation. Petrovic wasn't as good as people had hoped, too. If petrovic was awesome too, illinois would have played one deeper. This time last year, people thought Brandon Lee was going to be the best freshman on the team (outside of the baltic guys).
 
#645      
wc_illini
NarrowJ said:
What do I do with this data?

EDIT: Looks like it basically shows that 9th/10th man is kind of a crapshoot (ie, whoever earns it out of the bottom of the roster), but certainly unlikely to be top end talent level players
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I was showing that other top teams had a decent number of upperclassmen at #7-9 in playing time. Many of them were returning players rather than transfers, so it doesn't prove we could have brought someone in for that role, but it is at least possible- in addition to the two transfers in my list above (both were starters from mid-majors), we also did that with Z last year (started half his games and was relatively proven).

I also wondered about the rankings of the freshman who played decent minutes on these deep teams:
Michigan: #18
UConn: #15, #28
Duke: #3, #19, #20, #32
Houston: #6, #13, #16, #77 (red-shirt from prior class)
Purdue: #83 (but international), Unranked (red-shirt from prior class)

So it's at least possible to get a 9-man rotation with returnees, transfers (at least relatively proven), and top 35 freshman. We currently have 7-8 such players (depending on whether you include Morillo at #47), so it's reasonable to think there might be (or have been) another 1-2 guys out there willing to compete with #100 freshman for a bench role.
 
#646      
wc_illini
sulli said:
Having players 8-10 isn't really about having a good 10th man. It is about having someone who might develop and become a 4th-5th man. Last year the team was great because the 9th man coming in ended up being the best player on the team. That petrovic slid out of the rotation was at least in part that Wagler just balled out and took 36 minutes out of the rotation. Petrovic wasn't as good as people had hoped, too. If petrovic was awesome too, illinois would have played one deeper. This time last year, people thought Brandon Lee was going to be the best freshman on the team (outside of the baltic guys).
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It wasn't just that Keaton was a surprise. Petrovic didn't even play when we were down Boswell and Stoj
 
#648      
NarrowJ
wc_illini said:
I was showing that other top teams had a decent number of upperclassmen at #7-9 in playing time. Many of them were returning players rather than transfers, so it doesn't prove we could have brought someone in for that role, but it is at least possible- in addition to the two transfers in my list above (both were starters from mid-majors), we also did that with Z last year (started half his games and was relatively proven).

I also wondered about the rankings of the freshman who played decent minutes on these deep teams:
Michigan: #18
UConn: #15, #28
Duke: #3, #19, #20, #32
Houston: #6, #13, #16, #77 (red-shirt from prior class)
Purdue: #83 (but international), Unranked (red-shirt from prior class)

So it's at least possible to get a 9-man rotation with returnees, transfers (at least relatively proven), and top 35 freshman. We currently have 7-8 such players (depending on whether you include Morillo at #47), so it's reasonable to think there might be (or have been) another 1-2 guys out there willing to compete with #100 freshman for a bench role.
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I think we can bring someone in for this role, but its going to be a Jake Davis type (guy from lower tier school who is good enough to move up, but not good enough to demand/expect more than the role provides, which is you're not really in the rotation at all unless someone is injured).

But, for what Jake Davis gave us in his year as 9th man, I see no reason an Ethan Brown or Zavier Zens couldn't match that either. Just play 5-10 minutes with minimal mistakes, make open shots, and we'll try our best to hide you on defense. Jake shot 34% from 3 his first year here as 9th man so they don't even have to burn up the nets on their limited attempts to be valuable in that role.
 
#649      
ptgrd23
Best recent Illini teams

2021 #1 seed --- Trent Ayo, Kofi, Adam, Grandison DaMonte, Giorgi, Andre - 8 deep #9 was BBV
2024 Elite 8 --- TSJ, Quincy, Marcus, Coleman, Ty, Dain, Luke, Justin DGL - 9 deep #10 Amani #11 Sencire
2026 Final 4 - Keaton (F) , kylan, Tomas, David (F), Andrej, Jake, Ben, Big Z,- 8 deep #9 Brandon

2027 ??? - Tomas, David, Andrej(?), Stefan, Big Z, Jake Quentin (F), Luca (F) - 8 deep #9 ??? JMO could use a backup PG to break the press. Maybe we will pick somebody up late.
 
#650      
D1959
Still a very high level of confidence in Andrej Stojakovic coming back to Illinois.

In the VERY SMALL chance it does not happen, there are a couple of backup plans in case. But again, very highly likely as we stand here today that he will be back.
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He’s not coming back or he would have already pulled his name for the draft
 
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