Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread

#529      
I might be in the minority but Brandon Lee screams mid major ceiling to me. Didn’t show much of anything as a freshman
He played 75 minutes, mostly with the other deep reserves. I couldn't determine his ceiling.
 
#530      
right, it's not exactly rocket surgery. mind boggling that some are hung up on this
Agree.

I hope people don't take this the wrong way, because I love Ty, and really respect the good attitude and team support he gave the last two years. But I have never seen such elevation on this site for someone who has not played a minute in two seasons.

While he was good three seasons ago, our team dynamic and roster construction is totally different from when Ty started. And he could not shoot back then and I have seen nothing here to indicate that has changed, other than blind hope.
 
#531      
Sadly a school that's in big trouble in NIL World. They belong to an ecosystem that no longer exists.
It's obvious the negative impact NIL has had on these schools. However, more times than not it benefits the player. If a guy like Juke Harris remained at WAKE, chances are he would not develop like he will at Michigan. Same goes for Coleman.

There's a major difference in being a stats guy on an awful team, verses the best player on a championship contender.
 
#532      
Having players 8-10 isn't really about having a good 10th man. It is about having someone who might develop and become a 4th-5th man. Last year the team was great because the 9th man coming in ended up being the best player on the team. That petrovic slid out of the rotation was at least in part that Wagler just balled out and took 36 minutes out of the rotation. Petrovic wasn't as good as people had hoped, too. If petrovic was awesome too, illinois would have played one deeper. This time last year, people thought Brandon Lee was going to be the best freshman on the team (outside of the baltic guys).
 
#533      
What do I do with this data?

EDIT: Looks like it basically shows that 9th/10th man is kind of a crapshoot (ie, whoever earns it out of the bottom of the roster), but certainly unlikely to be top end talent level players
I was showing that other top teams had a decent number of upperclassmen at #7-9 in playing time. Many of them were returning players rather than transfers, so it doesn't prove we could have brought someone in for that role, but it is at least possible- in addition to the two transfers in my list above (both were starters from mid-majors), we also did that with Z last year (started half his games and was relatively proven).

I also wondered about the rankings of the freshman who played decent minutes on these deep teams:
Michigan: #18
UConn: #15, #28
Duke: #3, #19, #20, #32
Houston: #6, #13, #16, #77 (red-shirt from prior class)
Purdue: #83 (but international), Unranked (red-shirt from prior class)

So it's at least possible to get a 9-man rotation with returnees, transfers (at least relatively proven), and top 35 freshman. We currently have 7-8 such players (depending on whether you include Morillo at #47), so it's reasonable to think there might be (or have been) another 1-2 guys out there willing to compete with #100 freshman for a bench role.
 
#534      
Having players 8-10 isn't really about having a good 10th man. It is about having someone who might develop and become a 4th-5th man. Last year the team was great because the 9th man coming in ended up being the best player on the team. That petrovic slid out of the rotation was at least in part that Wagler just balled out and took 36 minutes out of the rotation. Petrovic wasn't as good as people had hoped, too. If petrovic was awesome too, illinois would have played one deeper. This time last year, people thought Brandon Lee was going to be the best freshman on the team (outside of the baltic guys).
It wasn't just that Keaton was a surprise. Petrovic didn't even play when we were down Boswell and Stoj
 
#536      
I was showing that other top teams had a decent number of upperclassmen at #7-9 in playing time. Many of them were returning players rather than transfers, so it doesn't prove we could have brought someone in for that role, but it is at least possible- in addition to the two transfers in my list above (both were starters from mid-majors), we also did that with Z last year (started half his games and was relatively proven).

I also wondered about the rankings of the freshman who played decent minutes on these deep teams:
Michigan: #18
UConn: #15, #28
Duke: #3, #19, #20, #32
Houston: #6, #13, #16, #77 (red-shirt from prior class)
Purdue: #83 (but international), Unranked (red-shirt from prior class)

So it's at least possible to get a 9-man rotation with returnees, transfers (at least relatively proven), and top 35 freshman. We currently have 7-8 such players (depending on whether you include Morillo at #47), so it's reasonable to think there might be (or have been) another 1-2 guys out there willing to compete with #100 freshman for a bench role.

I think we can bring someone in for this role, but its going to be a Jake Davis type (guy from lower tier school who is good enough to move up, but not good enough to demand/expect more than the role provides, which is you're not really in the rotation at all unless someone is injured).

But, for what Jake Davis gave us in his year as 9th man, I see no reason an Ethan Brown or Zavier Zens couldn't match that either. Just play 5-10 minutes with minimal mistakes, make open shots, and we'll try our best to hide you on defense. Jake shot 34% from 3 his first year here as 9th man so they don't even have to burn up the nets on their limited attempts to be valuable in that role.
 
#537      
It wasn't just that Keaton was a surprise. Petrovic didn't even play when we were down Boswell and Stoj
That is 100% true. My point wasn't really about petrovic. It is that people thought he was going to be a rotation guy and he ended up not being good enough. So when someone says that player x isn't needed because we only go 8 deep they are missing the fact that last year one of those "8" was petrovich until he turned out not to be.

I'd love for the Coleman and Morillo to be great next year. If they are, then that 9th man doesn't matter. However, if they aren't great, and one of the other random guys people think cannot crack the rotation is better than advertised, the season could still be salvaged.
 
#538      
Zens all day everyday as a complimentary role player in this offensive system over Ty/Lee. I see significantly more upside for him in what we've established. I think he's a PERFECT fit here in what we'll ask him to do.

Ty/Lee absolutely made the correct choices. And so did the staff. Glad the staff was upfront with them. Hope they both kill it at that level and get paid the following year like DGL.
 
#539      
I keep seeing the argument of "But Ty was a starter 3 years ago on an elite 8 team, he must be good enough to crack the rotation this year"

Ty's numbers from 2024 would have been good enough for the 9th best player on the team last season, below Z (and Jake and Ben).

Keeping 5 players from last year's rotation and adding Vaaks, Coleman and Morillo promises at best more of the same, and at worst less opportunity behind some combination of Zens, Brown and Davis.

An incoming freshman looking to prove himself could understandably deal with 3-5 minutes a game plus garbage time. A 5th year player is going to want to go somewhere he's getting some actual playing time, so that's what happened.
The romancing of Ty’s performance and abilities from 3 yrs ago on this thread are at cottage cheese levels!

He was probably offered a 9th man and didn’t want it. He got a degree and landed somewhere else where he’ll get PT. Great for him. Let it go.
 
#540      
That is 100% true. My point wasn't really about petrovic. It is that people thought he was going to be a rotation guy and he ended up not being good enough. So when someone says that player x isn't needed because we only go 8 deep they are missing the fact that last year one of those "8" was petrovich until he turned out not to be.

I'd love for the Coleman and Morillo to be great next year. If they are, then that 9th man doesn't matter. However, if they aren't great, and one of the other random guys people think cannot crack the rotation is better than advertised, the season could still be salvaged.
It's a good thing the staff has the summer to figure out if they want to add a Euro.
 
#541      
I think we can bring someone in for this role, but its going to be a Jake Davis type (guy from lower tier school who is good enough to move up, but not good enough to demand/expect more than the role provides, which is you're not really in the rotation at all unless someone is injured).

But, for what Jake Davis gave us in his year as 9th man, I see no reason an Ethan Brown or Zavier Zens couldn't match that either. Just play 5-10 minutes with minimal mistakes, make open shots, and we'll try our best to hide you on defense. Jake shot 34% from 3 his first year here as 9th man so they don't even have to burn up the nets on their limited attempts to be valuable in that role.
I wouldn't use our 2024-25 season as an one worth replicating. We're aiming to be a/the top team, not #20.

Jake came in as a low usage starter from a low major, and (while he was a great 5th/6th man his second year) I think we can aim a bit higher for someone competing with the #47 freshman for #8 on the team. The two transfers that were #7-9 in the rotations of last year's elite teams were Malachi Smith and Kalifa Sakho (quality starters on mid-majors). I'm pretty sure both were brought in for depth rather than starting roles, and a player of that caliber definitely raises the floor for our top 8 (and gives us lots of options to see if anyone sticks at #9). I'm thinking a 4 to give us more front court depth, though a defensive guard might be useful too.

I get the argument that between all our freshman, we can expect 1 starter and 1-2 solid bench players, giving us 8-9 guys. But none of Torvik's top 5 (plus #9 UConn) had a true freshman outside the top #32 play more than 10% of the time. And the top 30 freshman weren't all good enough to be starters on elite teams (or even bench players in many cases):

#7 Arenas (USC): very inefficient, but missed half the year with injury
#13 Harwell (Hou): apparently good on defense, but 30% of minutes, terrible shooter, and out of the rotation by end of season
#19 Khamenia (Duke): 50% of minutes, decent bench player
#21 Jasper Johnson (UK): 30% of minutes (less at the end of season), not efficient
#22 Abaev (Cinc): 30% of minutes, inefficient, out of the rotation after returned from mid-year injury
#24 Aristode (AZ): 30% of minutes, decent bench player on paper, but mostly out of the rotation by end of season
#26 Able (NC St): 50% of minutes, decent bench player
#27 Adams (Maryland): starter, but very inefficient, probably would've been decent in the right bench role
#28 Reibe (UConn): 35% of minutes, out of the rotation by end of season
#29 Ingram (Florida): 8% of minutes, even less by end of season
#30 White (Syr): 35% of minutes, decent bench player

The chances of getting a starter dropped off pretty fast at #19, so Coleman is on the right side of that, but just barely. Even half of the #20-30 guys fell way out of the rotation by the end of the year or were on bad enough teams that they would have on an elite team.

I'm not trying to criticize our roster. I trust our staff. I just think it's very reasonable to think there's room for one more guy (reasonably proven, i.e. mid-major starter or major contributor) competing for #5-7 in the rotation.
 
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#543      
It's a good thing the staff has the summer to figure out if they want to add a Euro.
works for me and they have the summer to figure out better on who plays better at the 9-10-11 roles........I wouldn't be surprised at all to see another new player being a higher than expected performer at this level....................
 
#544      
I agree. Brad typically doesnt go more than 8 deep. That being said, i do expect that we will add a 4 to be someone who is more suited to back up at the power 4 spot. Maybe not on Ben's level but possibly. Last year we had 4 guys that played the 4/5 in T, Z, Mirk and Ben. We needed all of them last season due to injuries and at times fouls. Currently to play the 4/5 especailly on the defensive end we only have 3 for those roles in T, Z and Mirk. For depth incase of injury or foul trouble i do expect us to fill that void in our rosters construction. How much they play im.not sure. We are stocked at the w7ng but not at the 4/5 if someone goes down or has foul trouble. Mayb s9me dont exoectvus to add a 4 man but i do expect that to happen eventually. Players get sick, hurt and get in foul trouble. The teams we are facing will have some big strong dudes at the 4/5 and we will need some back ups for depth or if someine does go down we arent in big trouble.
Not sure that JJ isn’t slated for emergency role. Think he could fit the 5-10 min role but would worry if one of three goes down for several games. Certainly would like to see some depth as it is very possible to lose all three bigs in another year.
 
#545      
Having players 8-10 isn't really about having a good 10th man. It is about having someone who might develop and become a 4th-5th man. Last year the team was great because the 9th man coming in ended up being the best player on the team. That petrovic slid out of the rotation was at least in part that Wagler just balled out and took 36 minutes out of the rotation. Petrovic wasn't as good as people had hoped, too. If petrovic was awesome too, illinois would have played one deeper. This time last year, people thought Brandon Lee was going to be the best freshman on the team (outside of the baltic guys).
Not expert but Petro didn’t fit the system they adapted. Don’t think that was because of his ability but his fit. Not unlike Ty. Could have been entirely different if Petro was available early and Wagner was not given the opportunity. Vaaks fits the offensive system replacement for Wagner. This team will be good because it fits what they want to do rather than adapt to what they have to do with the talent they have. Rating systems can rate skill but not fit. Reason a team of five stars are usually good but usually not great.
 
#546      
I wouldn't use our 2024-25 season as a one worth replicating. We're aiming to be a/the top team, not #20.

We are between 1st and 5th in pretty much all preseason lists for next year so I’m not sure what this “not #20” talk is. The 9/10th man isn’t going to torpedo our season, I mean they’ll be lucky to get spot minutes.

To me, it’s just nice to be worried about who is going to pass the ball to Blake Fagbemi when it’s 92-57 with 36 seconds left instead of whether or not we’re NIT bound with RayJ Dennis headed to Baylor.
 
#547      
We are between 1st and 5th in pretty much all preseason lists for next year so I’m not sure what this “not #20” talk is. The 9/10th man isn’t going to torpedo our season, I mean they’ll be lucky to get spot minutes.

To me, it’s just nice to be worried about who is going to pass the ball to Blake Fagbemi when it’s 92-57 with 36 seconds left instead of whether or not we’re NIT bound with RayJ Dennis headed to Baylor.
It's not about adding a 9/10th guy. It's about adding a piece that pushes Davis or Morillo down to that 9th man role.

Maybe, I just have higher expectations but I think when you look at what Illinois has retained and added already and compare them to the rest of the NCAA that it's time to push your chips in and go all in on competing for a title.

I love the retention and the returnees but it's easy to to just look at the final four appearance and forget that the team struggled in February. They got an awesome draw and took advantage but wins over Penn, VCU, and Iowa in March aren't super impressive, but a lot of the issues that showed up in February still exist(lack of defense/athleticism on the perimeter) and an offense that tends to stagnate and rely on a lot of one-on-one and iso stuff to create shots(look at how the ball stagnated against UConn).

Injuries happen and freshman don't translate all the time. What happens if Coleman or Morillo don't pan out right away? What happens if Vaaks gets injured? Does anyone think that you're going to beat Duke, Florida, or UConn playing Jake Davis significant minutes?

Nothing is going to guarantee success but the NCAA looks wide open and adding a significant piece at guard could be the different between seriously competing with the likes of Duke or ending up like Purdue and having a successful season but still end up being kind of disappointing and never a true threat.
 
#548      
The romancing of Ty’s performance and abilities from 3 yrs ago on this thread are at cottage cheese levels!

He was probably offered a 9th man and didn’t want it. He got a degree and landed somewhere else where he’ll get PT. Great for him. Let it go.
Ty would've likely been our best, most versatile defender and 2nd best rebounder if he had stayed. That alone would've gotten him more than spot minutes at the end of the bench. He probably wanted to be a for-sure starter, which they couldn't promise him, so he left.
 
#549      
I keep reading stuff about having a 9th or 10th man or whatever. Everyone knows Brad prefers an 8 man rotation, BUT, in my opinion, you really need 9 or 10 guys who are CAPABLE of giving you minutes. Injuries and bizarre stuff IS going to happen. That’s just reality. You can never have too much depth.

Who knows? Maybe those pieces are already here in Zavier Zens, Ethan Brown, or Landon Davis.

But you have to have those guys deep on the bench in case the injury bug hits you hard.
 
#550      
It's not about adding a 9/10th guy. It's about adding a piece that pushes Davis or Morillo down to that 9th man role.

Maybe, I just have higher expectations but I think when you look at what Illinois has retained and added already and compare them to the rest of the NCAA that it's time to push your chips in and go all in on competing for a title.

I love the retention and the returnees but it's easy to to just look at the final four appearance and forget that the team struggled in February. They got an awesome draw and took advantage but wins over Penn, VCU, and Iowa in March aren't super impressive, but a lot of the issues that showed up in February still exist(lack of defense/athleticism on the perimeter) and an offense that tends to stagnate and rely on a lot of one-on-one and iso stuff to create shots(look at how the ball stagnated against UConn).

Injuries happen and freshman don't translate all the time. What happens if Coleman or Morillo don't pan out right away? What happens if Vaaks gets injured? Does anyone think that you're going to beat Duke, Florida, or UConn playing Jake Davis significant minutes?

Nothing is going to guarantee success but the NCAA looks wide open and adding a significant piece at guard could be the different between seriously competing with the likes of Duke or ending up like Purdue and having a successful season but still end up being kind of disappointing and never a true threat.

There is a limit to the NIL available. It is not the university that goes all in but the donors who are going to pay the nil. We have football competing for those dollars. There is also the issue of finding a piece that fits and won't be a locker room issue. There is more to it than just buying the best players available - ask Louisville or Kentucky or BYU how that went for them last year. And unless you have one of the largest budgets, you have to take your chances that some bad things don't happen. It is not easy to get to a final four, let alone win a title, even if everything goes right. There is a team of very smart and savvy people trying their best to field the best team possible. If you have a couple of million to spare, I am sure they would take you up on it and add another piece assuming one is available that makes sense but that is a big if.
We had 8 high major starting level players last year - two of which were untested freshman that worked out. So that means we went into the year with 6 starting level players including Davis and Humrichous. We have 6 again this year - Mirk, Tommie, Z, Davis, Stoj and Vaaks. Compare those 6 to Tommie, Z, Davis, Stoj, Humrichous and Boz - four of whom are back with another year of experience. We are in as good or better shape going into the summer as we were last year. We are going to need a couple of freshman to contribute, but not to the same extent as last year because the established players can take up that burden.
Team construction is a balancing act and an art, not a science. We won't know the results until they play out. Have to just relax and look forward to what that will be.
And by the way, these freshman that we will be giving the opportunity to compete will be the backbone of the team in a year or two.
 
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