Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread

#201      
Well hold on.

Like Robert discusses in his article, there’s 2 ways players can get paid:

— Revenue sharing
— NIL

Every team has up to $20 million and some change they can spend on revenue sharing. Most programs spend $15 million on football. $4 million on basketball. And the remaining million or so on all other sports combined.

Looking at Duke specifically, since they have one of the lowest paid football rosters in the country, is it possible they’re giving a larger percentage to basketball than most programs? Yes.

When it comes to NIL. Of course, NIL is supposed to be completely legit. A player receives a fair market value compensation from a brand or company for using their Name, Image, and Likeness to market that brand or company.

Are there programs that stretch what “fair market value” means more than others? For sure.

But, a star Duke basketball player is still more marketable than a basketball player on almost every other team in the country. So the fair market value for a Duke player NIL likely is higher than most other teams.

A lot of the deals Illinois players land comes through Learfield. They work with a lot of programs and arrange deals between companies and players. I know Matt Bailey and Andrej got a commercial deal and I believe both were Learfield arranged. The bigger the brand the player plays for and the more of a star that player is, the more compensation they can receive for advertising.
Excellent summary, and I'd also point out that the job now is not really getting X booster to give this much and Y booster to give that much and using NIL to divert those funds. It's getting the right companies in league with your program so you can bring real, actual marketing opportunities to your program's players.

In a way, you can see how this could turn into a kind of meritorious cycle, where more successful programs are able to get better recruits, because on-court success means more exposure, which means more lucrative NIL deals including from companies that aren't boosters and truly and genuinely just believe there is a value in having your player (and by extension your program) as an ambassador or spokesperson or whatever. As an example, during our Final Four run, Andrej got a deal with Raising Cane's, a company headquartered in Louisiana and founded by a Georgia alum, and another deal with PAPATUI, the skincare brand founded by The Rock (who is obviouly a Miami alum).
 
#202      
He doesn't know anything nor is he keyed into what's going on behind the scenes in recruiting. He is just guestimating at this point. I highly doubt he ends up being correct...
Bill Hader Popcorn GIF
 
#204      
Torvik says Coach K was 0.2 wins below computer expectations and 3.2 wins below seed expectations over 21 tournament appearances, so I'd call that a wash. Scheyer is 0.8 wins above computer expectations and 1.6 wins above seed expectations over 4 NCAATs, but that's a small sample size. This doesn't account for how they were ranked/seeded relative to their talent though.
There needs to be an asterisk next to any stat that contains Flagg. Aren’t going to see another one of those for a lonnnggggg time.
 
#205      
There needs to be an asterisk next to any stat that contains Flagg. Aren’t going to see another one of those for a lonnnggggg time.
How are they 1.6 wins above seed expectations?


2023 (5 seed), finished R32 (net even)
2024 (4 seed), finished in Elite 8 (+1) farce, as only reason they got there was a Shead injury, then they lost to 11 seed NC St
2025 (1 seed - second best), finished semis (-1)
2026 (overall 1), finished Elite 8 (-3)

That's -3, unless they're not ranking the weight of which 1 they were, which would then be a net even.
 
#206      
How are they 1.6 wins above seed expectations?


2023 (5 seed), finished R32 (net even)
2024 (4 seed), finished in Elite 8 (+1) farce, as only reason they got there was a Shead injury, then they lost to 11 seed NC St
2025 (1 seed - second best), finished semis (-1)
2026 (overall 1), finished Elite 8 (-3)

That's -3, unless they're not ranking the weight of which 1 they were, which would then be a net even.
It isn't wins above "beating all worse seeds and losing to all better seeds". It's wins above "how that seed has historically done", (i.e. this link). Even if it took overall seed into account, that wouldn't change the result that much, and it would do the same to Coach K's results.

5-seed to R32: 1 win minus 1.12 expected wins = -0.12
4-seed to E8: 3 wins minus 1.51 expected wins = +1.49
1-seed to F4: 4 wins minus 3.36 expected wins = +0.64
1-seed to E8: 3 wins minus 3.36 expected wins = -0.36
Total: 11 wins minus 9.35 expected wins = +1.65

I think wins above computer expectations is better since it better handles mis-seeded teams and relative strength within a seed line.
 
#207      
Excellent summary, and I'd also point out that the job now is not really getting X booster to give this much and Y booster to give that much and using NIL to divert those funds. It's getting the right companies in league with your program so you can bring real, actual marketing opportunities to your program's players.

In a way, you can see how this could turn into a kind of meritorious cycle, where more successful programs are able to get better recruits, because on-court success means more exposure, which means more lucrative NIL deals including from companies that aren't boosters and truly and genuinely just believe there is a value in having your player (and by extension your program) as an ambassador or spokesperson or whatever. As an example, during our Final Four run, Andrej got a deal with Raising Cane's, a company headquartered in Louisiana and founded by a Georgia alum, and another deal with PAPATUI, the skincare brand founded by The Rock (who is obviouly a Miami alum).
Yes, exactly. Does Duke try to pass through more “fake” NIL deals than other teams to inflate their player comp? It’s certainly possible.

But it’s also possible that if you take one of the biggest brands in college basketball and pair that with the some of the most well-known players in college basketball, you get a higher market value for each player than other programs can provide.
 
#209      
#213      
I was pretty unimpressed by Cenac this year.
Same.

And yes, he was a bust. He was the 6th ranked prospect in that loaded class and mocked a top 10 pick by almost everyone before the season started. He was a better prospect coming out of HS than Caleb Wilson, and right there with the big 3. Dropping to 27 was probably 20 picks lower than he expected.

Harwell was the 13th ranked kid, barely played and transferred out. Sampson has all but avoided top kids this year and settled back into going after kids 40-100, where he does his best work. He's signed 4 of those kids already.
 
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#214      
Yes, exactly. Does Duke try to pass through more “fake” NIL deals than other teams to inflate their player comp? It’s certainly possible.

But it’s also possible that if you take one of the biggest brands in college basketball and pair that with the some of the most well-known players in college basketball, you get a higher market value for each player than other programs can provide.
It’s a fair point and I don’t dispute that nationally known players like Flagg and the Boozers get national deals and likely enhance the value of said deals with the Duke brand.

But I guess my point is where are the national deals for all of their other players? If there are national commercials or ad campaigns for the entire team I haven’t seen them and then just go on down the list of their talented but lesser known players. Did Maluach get national NIL while at Duke? Scion James? Mason Gillis? Does Caleb Foster? Will Blackwell?

Are New York private equity guys really funding legit NIL opportunities? If so, for what, and where are these opportunities?
 
#215      
It’s a fair point and I don’t dispute that nationally known players like Flagg and the Boozers get national deals and likely enhance the value of said deals with the Duke brand.

But I guess my point is where are the national deals for all of their other players? If there are national commercials or ad campaigns for the entire team I haven’t seen them and then just go on down the list of their talented but lesser known players. Did Maluach get national NIL while at Duke? Scion James? Mason Gillis? Does Caleb Foster? Will Blackwell?

Are New York private equity guys really funding legit NIL opportunities? If so, for what, and where are these opportunities?
And as an addendum to that, if the average rev sharing is roughly $20M per school, with the average school devoting something like 15 football/4 basketball/ 1 everything else. Let’s say Duke really starves their football program and devotes something like 12 basketball/7 football/1 everything else, that’s still a ton of $$ to make up in NIL for what is likely a $20M+ NIL roster. And I just don’t think there’s enough local NIL available in their market even if they were the most popular team in town (which they aren’t). And if there isn’t any national NIL beyond the one off player with national recognition, what gives?
 
#217      
The best developers are guys like Painter, Izzo. Hurley has done some good work with non 5 stars, gotten kids drafted in the first round like Karaban, Clingan, Reed, some others too I cannot remember.
Todd Golden probably belongs on that list (would like a longer track record), at least if the focus is identifying and developing great college players.

E.g., Thomas Haugh (3* outside of 247 composite top 200), Alex Condon (lightly recruited 3*). He's also done a good job elevating the games of transfers (e.g., Walter Clayton Jr. (Iona transfer unranked in HS, MAAC POY as soph under Pitino to consensus AA and NCAAT MOP at UF), Reuben Chinyelu (247 #128) went from averaging 5 pts/5 rebounds at Washington State to averaging 11/11 and being Defensive POY in the SEC two years later).
 
#218      
Todd Golden probably belongs on that list (would like a longer track record), at least if the focus is identifying and developing great college players.

E.g., Thomas Haugh (3* outside of 247 composite top 200), Alex Condon (lightly recruited 3*). He's also done a good job elevating the games of transfers (e.g., Walter Clayton Jr. (Iona transfer unranked in HS, MAAC POY as soph under Pitino to consensus AA and NCAAT MOP at UF), Reuben Chinyelu (247 #128) went from averaging 5 pts/5 rebounds at Washington State to averaging 11/11 and being Defensive POY in the SEC two years later).
I need to see more out of Golden. He's gone through one swath of players he's still riding.

He's a really interesting case - really isn't involved at all with 5* kids, doesn't do much if anything at the HS level. He grabbed a couple no name HS kids in Haugh & Condon and developed them. The rest has really been elevating transfers.

I'm just wondering if this model is repeatable. Clayton was a whirlwind, but biting it at the NBA level. Can he keep resurrecting mid major transfers and finding no names and turning them into gold? His model feels closer to Matt Painter than it does a guy like Hurley.

Does he have an incredible eagle eye for undiscovered talent, or has he been lucky? TBD. I don't think Boogie and Xavian were great scouts. It's rare you see a 5* leave Cal and Arkansas was much better without him than with him.
 
#219      
It’s a fair point and I don’t dispute that nationally known players like Flagg and the Boozers get national deals and likely enhance the value of said deals with the Duke brand.

But I guess my point is where are the national deals for all of their other players? If there are national commercials or ad campaigns for the entire team I haven’t seen them and then just go on down the list of their talented but lesser known players. Did Maluach get national NIL while at Duke? Scion James? Mason Gillis? Does Caleb Foster? Will Blackwell?
A few things here:

1. It's not just that top players will definitely get national NIL deals. It's that the team is consistently good, and gets lots of exposure, so the potential for NIL deals is higher. This is even true on the lower end deals. For example, his Duke affiliation allows Caleb Foster to charge about the same rates for marketing social media posts on Opendorse as Andrej, a far more impactful player. I also have to imagine the money they get from stuff like merchandise sales is better from Duke than from most other programs, just based on the exposure and popularity of Duke basketball.



Again, I'll point out the example of not only Wagler, but also Andrej getting big endorsement deals during the tourney. Success means more exposure, which means more NIL opportunities. Duke is about as safe a bet as exists to get to the tourney and stay in at least to the second weekend.

2. High end national dollars probably means that local businesses that function mostly as Duke boosters can use their money towards the rest of the roster.

3. There's value in the potential for striking those big deals. Nobody goes to Duke expecting to ride pine. These are all 5-star recruits, they've never experienced a situation where they aren't the star, and so they bet on themselves. And I mean, sometimes it works. Kon Kneuppel was the 4th highest ranked guy in his class of Duke recruits, but I doubt he regrets that decision.
 
#220      
Calling Chris Cenac a bust is a TOUGH crowd haha.
very tough, the guy only avg like 12 and 8 in HS then stepped into a gauntlet of a conference ad avg 10/8 as the 3/4th option, and centers seem to take a bit more development time from HS to college. The Centers behind in the top 30ish did not outperform him
 
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#221      
#222      
at least we know Brad and company have an eye for talent.

here is an interesting article from ESPN redrafting the 2024 recruiting class.

it's both good and a little painful to see that we had commitments from 3 of the top 10.

Our talent identification is amazing. Exciting times ahead for the program. We may look back at the TSJ 2024 and Wagler teams as just the beginning of the Illini golden era.
 
#223      

Looks like Black will end up at Duke or Arkansas by my guesstimation. Those are two programs also looking at Brady Pettigrew. So wonder how all that plays. I would guess in our favor.

If I were to guess our biggest competitor for Brady's services at the moment would be an Arkansas. Brady likely needs to play as a point guard in the NBA.

Lot of moving parts because if Vaaks and Coleman returns for year 2 I'm not sure Brady figures into our plans any longer.

My guess is Brady will wait till next spring to see where all the chips fall. I would think the path of a Chicagoland product becoming an Illini legend is a more appealing pathway post Ayo (and his 9-digit contract). But from watching the public content put out by him and his dad I don't believe they have any interest in playing second fiddle.

I therefore think it's a win-win for us. We either get year two of a Vaaks and Coleman backcourt or one of them is replaced by Brady. All the while adding some blue chip front court talent either via HS or the portal to replace the twins (and potentially Mirk).
 
#225      
Looks like Black will end up at Duke or Arkansas by my guesstimation. Those are two programs also looking at Brady Pettigrew. So wonder how all that plays. I would guess in our favor.

If I were to guess our biggest competitor for Brady's services at the moment would be an Arkansas. Brady likely needs to play as a point guard in the NBA.
Lot of moving parts because if Vaaks and Coleman returns for year 2 I'm not sure Brady figures into our plans any longer.
You can apply the logic in your second bolded to the schools you named in your first bolded.

What if Arkansas gets Black and returns Jeremiah Wilkerson?

What if Duke returns 2-3 out of Boozer / Blackwell / Rippey / Howard?

Also, Duke hasn’t even offered Pettigrew.
 
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