Here's a wiki page you can sort by size or conference. Except for NW and Rutgers, all of the B1G arenas are at least 12K and most are 14K. It looks like the SFC is #24, though that is with the old capacity. After renovations, it would drop a couple of spots.
John Groce at Illinois
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Correct. The numbers are terrible in a vacuum. They're panic-worthy when you consider the context.
I sure hope that Ohio State doesn't fire Thad Matta. They have a bigger arena and have had less people at their games than us this year and last year, despite having historically strong attendance.
Which is why you can't take the numbers in a vacuum. Ohio State has been top 10 3 of the last 4 years. They play a huge number of home games which spreads out the attendance (20 to our 13), have 3 of their biggest draws left (MSU, Michigan, and Iowa vs Rutgers, Minnesota and Indiana), and most importantly didn't just dump 160 million dollars into their stadium and are failing to sell their big money boxes.
Based on this reply, I still don't think you read his original post.
He wasn't saying that this year's November games were versus awful teams. He was saying that historically (i.e. before this year), the November games were versus awful teams.
I am really hoping cooler heads prevail here for Whitman.
Shane Walsh
aka "Captain Oblivious"
- Cynthiana, Kentucky
:huh:
Care to elaborate?
I just think the sober-minded thing to do is clearly to retain Groce for another season, regardless of how much he "deserves" to be fired or skepticism about what he can really accomplish next year. But in the swell of optimism around Whitman there is bound to be some desire to strike while the iron is hot and make a big splash, and I really hope that mentality doesn't take over. There are some happy message board posters today, but the iron remains frigid.
Shane Walsh
aka "Captain Oblivious"
- Cynthiana, Kentucky
:thumb:
Agreed on this. There are other more pressing matters.
I tend to agree on one hand, but I wonder what the effects on recruiting in 2017, a very crucial year, would be if we have an on-the-chopping-block coach next year?
On the other hand, a brand new Illinois coach would have a lot of ground to make up with the 2017 class, too.
I was wondering if our plummet over the past 3 years is the worst out there. Last night I compared all Kenpoms team rankings from the end of 2013 to last nights KenPom numbers. I dont have the data here with me, but there were only four or five power 5 conference teams with similar or worse KenPom drops than ours ( from 39 to 124, -85) during that time:
Rutgers, 109 to 284 -173
Minnesota 26 to 181 -155
Boston Collage 96 to 247 -151
Missouri 31 to 168 -137
Marquette 24 to 105 -81
I dont really think counting the teams from the small and midmajors is that informative because their numbers can swing so wildly, but if you look at everyone we have had about the 50th worst drop overall (out of 327ish teams).
(K State has dropped 24 KenPom spots from the end of 2012 to now).
Rutgers, 109 to 284 -173
Minnesota 26 to 181 -155
Boston Collage 96 to 247 -151
Missouri 31 to 168 -137
Marquette 24 to 105 -81
I dont really think counting the teams from the small and midmajors is that informative because their numbers can swing so wildly, but if you look at everyone we have had about the 50th worst drop overall (out of 327ish teams).
(K State has dropped 24 KenPom spots from the end of 2012 to now).
Groce and Whitman will need to meet and discuss each persons view of the future for the basketball program. If they are not on the same page for the direction of the program then this is the ideal time to move on. I think a big hire can help with the big recruiting class in 2017 and increase attendance at SFC.
I think the sober minded thing to do is look at both choices and determine what happens if the choice (fire/retain) happens to be wrong. Obviously if he is retained and kills it in the recruiting wars, and we finish in the top half of the B1G, have a decent run in THE tourney, it was the right thing to do. But....
If Groce is retained, then underperforms next year and is let go, where are we 12 months from now? Part of the AD's job is to put his coaches in a position where they have the best chance of success. No upcoming senior class to ease the transition, no chance of a downstate-oriented '17 class to recruit, and another year of a fair to middling conference season. Talk about not ideal...
Now, if Groce is fired after this season, what is the worse case scenario? If there is a Drew/Jacobson/Howard on the bench next year, what are the downsides? There may be players/recruits leaving, it is not unusual when there is a coaching change. But, if a player is getting time, it is rare. Does anyone think a Drew or Jacobson is a worse coach than Groce? (A Howard is a wild card that belongs in another discussion re: coaching chops). The '17 class of recruits? Perhaps Groce & staff will have better luck than a Drew/Rev staff, it is one of those decisions that Whitman is going to have to take a long hard look at.
It's going to be a very interesting next 12-14 months.
Interesting approach and surely needs done but I have always wondered if just the fact that there is an AD with a plan in mind won't get attendance moving in the right direction on it's own.
I think this is absolutely the right way to look at it.
If Groce is retained and he bombs, we fire him in March 2017 and are in exactly the same position competitively, and almost certainly a stronger position institutionally as we are right now. SFC is done. Whitman's staff is fleshed out. A permanent Chancellor is in place. A long-term search and study of coaching candidates has had time to take place behind the scenes. Fundraising has been established and a budget for the hire will be iron-clad, not to mention the buyout being lower.
If we go into the market now, whiff on the most publicly ballyhooed candidates, and then the coach we hired sees Frank Williams' kid go somewhere else and then struggles on the court next year? The Whitman era is over before it starts and we are YEARS away from even beginning to start building again at square one.
The downside is just too big to make the move now. Get your ducks in a row. That's my take on it anyway.
Like, spoiler alert, but every one of these big 2017 recruits is going to be very closely involved with Illinois, take an official visit, interact with our fans on social media, create a massive public expectation that they are ours, and then take somebody else's hat off the table on live TV. Guaranteed, regardless of who the coach is.
Accept that premise, and then tell me which coach you want to take that fall, John Groce, who can be jettisoned as yesterday's news in 13 months, or the Great New Hope around which this entire era will be centered?
Accept that premise, and then tell me which coach you want to take that fall, John Groce, who can be jettisoned as yesterday's news in 13 months, or the Great New Hope around which this entire era will be centered?
If you presuppose that no matter who is coaching we are not getting the 2017 Illinois class then I would probably fire Groce now, IF I was confident I could make a good hire.
I would rather give the new guy a decent cabinet of talent to put on display next year for people to see, instead of stringing a lame duck Groce along, and bringing a new guy in with a very spare roster returning in Fall 2017.
if Groce is not going to get those big recruits anyway, then a new guy is not going to do any worse.
Ugh. Stop letting kids who aren't even committed to the program hold it hostage. Unless they commit between now and March ~15 they should have 0 bearing on any decision made. Groce is not nearly a good enough recruiter to give him any benefit of the doubt.
Are you certain he will be, given this poopshow?
This is how I would like Whitman to handle the basketball side. No decision of course initially on Groce. Sit down with him, mention that he is not happy with the state of Illinois basketball, tell Groce he has not decided yet whether to retain him as he needs more info. I would also let Groce know that part of the info process would gathering info on the coaching and recruiting side. This could consist of sending back channel feelers out to gauge the interest from coaches and/or agents that Whitman likes to see how responsive coaches would be to taking over Illinois bball. I think he needs to find out the perception of coaches on this job. I would want Whitman to stress to Groce that the 2017 class is an integral part of the evaluation process. I think it is important to evaluate if after this season or waiting to after next season's results would hurt/hamper acquiring a coach that he likes.
I'm sure he will be. Illinois has held onto coaches far past the point where it's obvious it's not going to work out. That's happened basically with every coach who was fired in the modern era. For whatever reason, I doubt that changes, even with a new AD. We're used to extended misery by now.
I'm willingly to be pleasantly surprised though.
Not certain at all. I've said it before that I'll completely understand if the new AD decides to go in a new direction. But other than some fans, there haven't been any analysts that have said that Groce should be let go. If anything, he's gotten a lot of praise for keeping the team competitive in this rough stretch. I'd say that it's much more likely than not that he'll be retained.
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