I wonder as NIL becomes a primary decision factor for recruits
No one knows, of course, but my guess is that most of the NBA prospects want to get the NBA, so their #1 driver is development that gets them there or moves them up the draft board. For players who aren't expecting a quick path to the league, NIL might be more of a factor than future earnings, and in some cases, guys who excel in college might even do better financially while they're eligible. Lotta college fans don't follow the NBA, even though that's where the big salary money is.
I wonder if the transfer rule has more impact --coaches need to recruit guys who fit and are likely to stay with the program, and that's no small task given how easy it is for someone to blame the coaches for performance. I kinda like the rule as it stands right now --players being eligible immediately after their first transfer, but having a sit-out period if they continue to jump around. It puts skin in the game on both sides more than unlimited transfers, while giving players a good degree of freedom. YMMV.
I really don't get some of the belly-aching that comes up over small market teams vs big. It's been that way forever, with programs finding ways to induce players. The difference is that now it's more transparent, less hypocritical, and less punitive. The idea that a program gets caught, all the players and coaches have left, and they punish the new guys seems insane to me...but then again, so do the rules and enforcement...