He's going pro. They are going to add one more but Kylan and the staff want to move forward.
NBA Draft
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
But $5 million isn't an absurd number for Andrej, plus he has the extra 5-for-5 year, PLUS the opportunity to play himself into the first round on a team that features him more in a dramatically weaker draft class.
The chances he has an 8-9 figure NBA free agent contract in his future and the chances his draft stock improves in one (or two) years aren't independent variables, they correlate with one another.
Which isn't to say it's not POSSIBLE he loses out in the aggregate by returning to school rather than taking a second round multi-year guarantee, but the median expected value is definitely higher.
If he's optimizing for money, he comes back.
What a second round guarantee would optimize for is career NBA games played, and perhaps just as importantly to him and his family it pushes his chances of Peja and Andrej Stojakovic joining the list of fathers and sons to play in the NBA to 100%.
It's not a secret the NBA has been the narrow-minded goal of Andrej and his family, which is true of every player but especially in his case with the sophistication of what that means and how to get there. This is a guy who transferred from one arch rival to another, the Stojakovic's are not romantic people about college basketball. It's about what's best for Andrej, and Andrej did not get what he came for last year because of Wagler.
It's all understandable. But the reality is we're his best offer, and they'll be making a mistake not to take it.
One of my favorite stories about this scene is that the actor who plays Jimmy said he was so focused on making every shot that he didn't even listen to what Gene Hackman was saying. When they did the first take, he made 12 consecutive shots.
I agree with a lot of what you're saying. But optimizing for money isn't the same as taking the highest expected value (and certainly not the highest median). There's diminishing marginal utility, and the risk of serious injury or regression means returning has a much lower floor than a guaranteed 2-3 year contract, and might mean he never realizes his dream of being in the NBA.
Plus there are non-monetary considerations. He seems to enjoy the team, but does he enjoy the grind of classes? Does he think he could improve more if he could focus on bball?
Is this really true for Yaxel?
If Yaxel stays in he was probably getting picked in the 20s. Let's say #25 for the sake of argument. That pick got 4 yrs/$15 million. He's currently around the tail end of the lottery in mock drafts, at like #14. That pick got 4 yrs/$23 million in last year's draft. I've seen reports that Yaxel got $3 million to play for Michigan. So essentially over a 5-year span staying would net him $26 million.
If he'd stayed in the draft and gotten that $4yr/$15 million deal in the 5th year of that same time span he'd be hitting free agency before that 5th year. If he gets even $12 million for that year on the FA market, he's coming out ahead in the scenario where he went a year earlier. Look at NBA salaries. It's not hard to imagine him getting double that if he does well. Maybe even triple that.
I think people overvalue the difference between getting drafted higher vs getting an extra year of an NBA career. There's a certain point where improving draft stock makes sense finanically, but going from late first round to late lottery is not that point.
This is exactly it. Fears/Blackwell/other 2nd rounders have essentially zero reason to jump to the nba this year.
Anyone scared needs to think of it this way: they are interviewing for a job. Why would anyone come out and say “I’m just here for the combine experience”. Of course they’re gonna say they are ten toes in on the NBA. I think the mere fact Andrej mentioned coming back as a possibility is all you need to know.