NBA Draft
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This is exactly it. Fears/Blackwell/other 2nd rounders have essentially zero reason to jump to the nba this year.
Anyone scared needs to think of it this way: they are interviewing for a job. Why would anyone come out and say “I’m just here for the combine experience”. Of course they’re gonna say they are ten toes in on the NBA. I think the mere fact Andrej mentioned coming back as a possibility is all you need to know.
When watching that clip, it seemed to me that Andrej had a couple tells that indicated he was returning, JMHO. He kinda gave it away that he was saying what he needed to say.
NBA Draft Combine: Predicting stay-or-go decisions for Milan Momcilovic, Malachi Moreno, other draft hopefuls
Following player interviews at the NBA Draft Combine in Chicago, here is insight on and predictions for each major stay-or-go decision.
www.cbssports.com
"I think I'm in a special situation where my option to go back to school is one of a kind," Stojakovic said, via Illini Inquirer's Jeremy Werner. "Not many people in this Combine have the option to go back to a Final Four team with most of the guys returning. … I'm very thankful for the situation I'm in because going back to school is also a really, really good option for me."
The article goes on to predict Andrej comes back. One data point, but a good one.
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His agent says he’s coming back. According to twitterNBA Draft Combine: Predicting stay-or-go decisions for Milan Momcilovic, Malachi Moreno, other draft hopefuls
Following player interviews at the NBA Draft Combine in Chicago, here is insight on and predictions for each major stay-or-go decision.
"I think I'm in a special situation where my option to go back to school is one of a kind," Stojakovic said, via Illini Inquirer's Jeremy Werner. "Not many people in this Combine have the option to go back to a Final Four team with most of the guys returning. … I'm very thankful for the situation I'm in because going back to school is also a really, really good option for me."
The article goes on to predict Andrej comes back. One data point, but a good one.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Not when he can make $10 million in college over his next two seasons with 5-for-5. That dramatically changes the financial incentives.
For one thing I think he's jumped more than 25 to 14. Saw him at 10 in CBS' latest mock. And there was second round risk last year.
For two, the rookie scale escalates every year, so even at the same pick you get a little bit more delaying a year. The same mechanics apply to free agency. (All of this is more or less just accounting for inflation of course, but that door leads toward overcomplicating this).
For three, hitting free agency a year later offers the opportunity to be a more proven player when you get there. The reason Ayo is on a wildly team-friendly 3 yr/21M deal is because he hit RFA after his second season before he took a leap in his third season.
For four, Yaxel is now a much more marketable player which has endorsement benefits. That wasn't a guarantee returning to school, but it was a possibility that being a lightly-used Pelican did not offer.
The basic math of "the last year of an NBA career is typically worth more than the first" isn't wrong. Nor is the fact of free agency being the real payday that you need to serve out your rookie deal to access whenever you enter. But you're drawing a lot of suppositions from there that don't really follow.
Is @FI_890526 an alien that only I can see?
Good thing he is an Illinois player and not a prospective Illinois player.
Buzz around Andrej Stojakovic is that hes returning?
5 for 5 will not be retroactive for this year's seniors.
He is such a great spokesperson for Illinois. Really all of the current pros are, but Kylan speaks with such maturity and intelligence.
In the case of a serious injury, he'd make half that AND never realize his dream of being in the NBA.
In the case of regression, he might roughly break even financially but would miss out on that dream.
Edit: I'm not speculating on what he will or should do, just acknowledging the risks of turning down an offer to go to the NBA now.
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A great ambassador for the program.
Andrej needs to be Andrej.... I'm not sure the best version of us includes him. Andrej is a winner but I'm not sure Andrej can make his team a winner
I would love for him to come back and prove me wrong... ILL
Like every time he mentioned illinois or his teammates his smile got so big his face almost split in half.
This is also assuming ofcourse the “promise” is a 100% locked down guarantee - there is a risk a team doesn’t follow through on that promise.
The faulty part of your argument (for the lack of a better term), do you view being in the G League the same as being in the NBA?
Your premise assumes a second contract and playing under the bright lights after a year or two in the G-League and playing in front of 1,500 people on a nightly basis. With where he is now, that's his best case scenario.
If he comes back to school, he is still guaranteed two years of pay, playing in front of packed stadiums, national TV exposure, having to work on the same parts of his game that he gets the feedback on, with the same dream of getting on the floor of a meaningful NBA game.
There are FAR more Mac McClung's than Ayo. Ayo was a bonafide All American that scouts just over thought based on the same measurables that these guys are getting tested for now. Those types of misses are unicorns of the draft process. Heck, TJ was a proven college superstar and he's only seeing the floor out of injury desperation and he WAS a first round pick. There WERE guarantees.
FAR more second rounders never have more than a cup of coffee at the NBA level. We can all agree the Bulls suck. Outside of Ayo, can you name me a second round pick that's sticking around? Then, if you get drafted by a good team that is willing to take a flier on you, you're automatically blocked from the court by established players.
With regards to injury, it can happen in the G-League or college. That's not limited to the college court. If he tears up a knee in a G-League game in front of 1,500, the outcome is no different than if he does it in front of 15,000.
The dream is the dream. He's no closer to it living or dying in his current situation.
If he comes back to school, he is still guaranteed two years of pay, playing in front of packed stadiums, national TV exposure, having to work on the same parts of his game that he gets the feedback on, with the same dream of getting on the floor of a meaningful NBA game.
If he regresses this year in college, what's going to happen there? If he regresses after two years at Illinois, he's probably regressing after two years in the G-League and ultimately he's in the same spot, which is playing overseas and taking it from there.
HOWEVER, if he's taken with the last pick in the first round, erase this entire post. That's an enormous difference. An NBA team is stuck.
In this day and age, unless you're a guaranteed 1st rounder, you run back to college with the cash flying around. This is the reason that underclassmen staying in school vs going to the draft has wildly increased. The spike is insanely dramatic. Drej is the poster child for that situation and fits the mold of why these kids are staying.
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ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Which is roughly the same as the two year guarantee (with a third year team option) that the second round exception deal grants him.
THAT'S what really matters here. What the NBA can guarantee him that Illinois cannot is to be minted for life as "An NBA Player" alongside his father.
I just hope he doesn't make a foolish financial decision that massively screws our golden opportunity in order to lock in something he'll have a great chance to achieve regardless and very possibly a much better chance next year.
The "good" news here is that I don't really see why a team would give Andrej the multi-year guarantee he's seeking as a fringe second round guy.
Yeah, that definitely depends on what he's hearing. My understanding is that most 2nd round exception contracts are 3yrs (+ team option on 4th), which would put the max guaranteed amount somewhere around $7.5mil. If he's hearing $5m or less, then I agree it's all about guaranteeing the dream
Never underestimate Vivek's ability to do stupid things.
Sentiment around Andrej has not changed outside of fan angst.
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